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Hot Take - Don’t pay Qbs


C.Biscuit97

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1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Basically if you can’t play right away now, you probably aren’t good enough.

 This seems to be right.

 

I think the standard now is you go in immediately, to no more than sitting one year. That range 0-1 years. 

 

That’s all you get now. 
 

It will be an interesting case study to monitor the Jordan Love situation as the reports were he looked terrible in Training Camp. 

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On 10/29/2020 at 10:24 AM, Rigotz said:

 

This is quite possibly the worst take ever. 

The #1 priority for every single NFL franchise is to draft a great QB and keep him until he retires.

I just looked at the last 20 years of Super Bowl winners and 17 of them had a good veteran Franchise QB at the helm.

 

Bad take.

 

Not necessarily.  Of the last 7 SBs, only 2 have been won by the type of QB you suggest. ( draft a great QB and keep him until he retires)

 

2014 - Seattle with a QB on rookie contract.  Since Russ signed the big contract they have not been back.

2015 - The Cheats*** with Tommy.

2016 - Denver with short term rental Manning atQB.

2017 - Philly with QB on rookie contract and a backup QB.

2018 - The Cheats*** with Tommy

2019 - KC with QB on rookie contract.

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On 10/29/2020 at 12:42 PM, C.Biscuit97 said:

You shouldn’t overpay Qbs.  Obviously there are exceptions to the rule but look at the league now.  Lamar won a MVP in his 2nd season.  So did Mahomes. Joe Burrow, a good but not generational prospect, is on pass for 4,600 yards as a rookie!  Justin Herbert, who no one thought was close to an elite prospect, is at pace that if he started 16 games, he would throw for 5,000 yards.

 

fact is Qbs are completely overpaid and qb’s 2nd contracts kill your ability to build a roster.  It has never been easier to pay qb in the NFL and college guys translate easier than ever.  Obviously, there are exceptions to the rule (Seattle kinda sucks minus Wilson but he carries the team; Mahomes; Brady; Rodgers) but too many replaceable guys get paid too much.  Also if teams stopped handing out monster to Deals to average talents like Goff and Tannehill (during Miami), it would bring the salaries down.  
 

And for the record, I’m totally down with every player getting every cent they can.  But these contracts murder franchises.  

It’s never easy to find a Qb. Took us 20+ years. You coulda ended your post after the first line. Don’t overpay, but market price for a franchise qb is what it is. I also disagree w your statement about Burrow. You can’t put a label on this kid at this point, especially one who you say isn’t generational but did just go #1 overall after putting together the best college season of all time. Let’s wait to put a label on him, especially the way he’s playing.

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2 hours ago, Codyny13 said:

It’s never easy to find a Qb. Took us 20+ years. You coulda ended your post after the first line. Don’t overpay, but market price for a franchise qb is what it is. I also disagree w your statement about Burrow. You can’t put a label on this kid at this point, especially one who you say isn’t generational but did just go #1 overall after putting together the best college season of all time. Let’s wait to put a label on him, especially the way he’s playing.

At the same time, Allen is the highest drafted qb in franchise history.  We traded down to get EJ. Losman was the 4th qb taken in his class. Trent was a 3rd round pick after a whatever career in college. Tyrod and Fitz were backup free agents.  
 

id argue that reason the Bills didn’t find a qb is because they didn’t try hard enough and settled for after thoughts. 
 

and I really like Burrow but the whole point is what he is doing now, isn’t that special.  These guys are putting up Montana and Marino numbers as rookies. Look at Herbert, who no one predicted was some elite prospect.  It’s a major trend for guys to light up the league right away because it’s such an easier game for qbs.  

Edited by C.Biscuit97
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7 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

This is a great example. I don't know Tua's salary. Is it 6 or 7 million guaranteed? 30 or 35 mil. for 5 years? Cousins makes this much in one season, no? If Tua can't cut it, it wont cost so much to cut him. Cousins has a contract that is mostly guaranteed so you are stuck with him, and out millions of dollars in cash and cap space.

 

Again, good post. This topic will become more and more relevant to NFL Teams and fans as this situation plays out.

 

 

Another example would be the Rams.  I actually like Goff more than most.  But I do I think the Rams would be better served drafting a guy and plugging him into McVay’s system than paying Goff $30 million? Absolute no brainer.

6 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

 This seems to be right.

 

I think the standard now is you go in immediately, to no more than sitting one year. That range 0-1 years. 

 

That’s all you get now. 
 

It will be an interesting case study to monitor the Jordan Love situation as the reports were he looked terrible in Training Camp. 

I will say every thing this year should be taken with a grain of salt because it’s such a different offseason. 

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34 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

At the same time, Allen is the highest drafted qb in franchise history.  We traded down to get EJ. Losman was the 4th qb taken in his class. Trent was a 3rd round pick after a whatever career in college. Tyrod and Fitz were backup free agents.  
 

id argue that reason the Bills didn’t find a qb is because they didn’t try hard enough and settled for after thoughts. 
 

and I really like Burrow but the whole point is what he is doing now, isn’t that special.  These guys are putting up Montana and Marino numbers as rookies. Look at Herbert, who no one predicted was some elite prospect.  It’s a major trend for guys to light up the league right away because it’s such an easier game for qbs.  

It’s def a different league now, than those late 80’s and 90’s teams where only the hall of fame quarterbacks put up crazy numbers I agree, as well as your summation that the Bills didn’t do enough to get a QB, that’s for damn sure, but it also shows that having that guy is the difference between winning and losing much of the time, hence the drought. If you have that guy, you can’t risk losing him to another team for the difference of a few million dollars. You maybe be slightly overpaying, but what’s the alternative here? Fielding a complete team is difficult with the salary cap, that’s why drafting well is so important. Without that guy at QB you have that 2017 Bills team, maybe get to the playoffs but you’re not really contending. I know there’s examples of teams winning superbowls with average quarterbacks, but those teams had generational defenses, and isn’t a recipe for contending year after year.

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15 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

At the same time, Allen is the highest drafted qb in franchise history.  We traded down to get EJ. Losman was the 4th qb taken in his class. Trent was a 3rd round pick after a whatever career in college. Tyrod and Fitz were backup free agents.  
 

id argue that reason the Bills didn’t find a qb is because they didn’t try hard enough and settled for after thoughts. 
 

and I really like Burrow but the whole point is what he is doing now, isn’t that special.  These guys are putting up Montana and Marino numbers as rookies. Look at Herbert, who no one predicted was some elite prospect.  It’s a major trend for guys to light up the league right away because it’s such an easier game for qbs.  

 

The Bills didn't look very hard for a starting QB for 20 years because they were playing money ball even before Mr Money Ball, Russ Brandon, took charge of the team.  They were ALWAYS looking for the cheaper option, from scouting and player personnel to coaches to players, and they pretty much got what they paid for.  It took a change in ownership and the firing of Brandon to allow Beane to function like a real GM and put the emphasis on winning football games rather than maximizing profits.

 

Herbert was taken #6 IIRC, so he's not exactly dog meat.   However, who knows if he ever gets truly better.   As DCs "figure them out" and learn their strengths and weaknesses, numerous flashy first year starters have proven to be disappointments.  I think QBs who don't show themselves special  by their second year as starters, however, are really big question marks going forward.  They better show marked improvement by their third seasons to warrant giving them a fifth year option -- and by marked improvement, I mean they have to improve as QBs in terms of understanding the game and making good decisions.

 

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