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Bills one of 14 teams to start 5-2 while being outscored, only 5 made playoffs

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5 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

 

Why? 

 

He was literally playing at that level through 4 games. I don't see the big deal. ,he and more importantly, the entire Bills team has come back down to earth but he absolutely deserved all the credit in the world for the first four games. 

It was pretty obvious to most that Allen was not going to keep up that pace against better competition. Hell, he was unable to play like an MVP candidate against the worst team in the league...

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let me reiterate my previous post 

 

Points Per Game 

Buffalo Bills #5 in the NFL.

GB  38 ppg 

Seattle 35.5 ppg

Dallas 31.5 ppg

Cleveland 31 pg

Buffalo  30.8 ppg

NO 30.8 ppg

 

Total Net points premise -  practically based on 1 "blowout" 42-16.  The other loss was 26-17.

Buffalo -4  

Cleveland - 21 

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4 hours ago, Big C said:

 

Point differential is useful. I'm just saying, this criteria is saying that 1/3 teams that fit a criteria that has popped up 1/3 seasons in the past 42 years of NFL stats is not exactly the most startling statistic. 

 

I'm just saying, what if we beat the Patriots 30-6, hell, even 14-6 next week? What are the odds that a team with a positive point differential and a 6-2 record after 8 games make the playoffs? This speific stat still isn't a cause for alarm. 

 

There are too many variables to make this stat matter, as far as I'm concerned. We are 5-2 and atop of our division by 2 games, and we have a perfect 3-0 record in the division so far. The Browns, meanwhile, have a 5-2 record and a -21 point differential to our -4 and are in THIRD place in their division with a 2-2 record to our 3-0. It doesn't even matter if we are realistically a better or worse team than them. We are on track to win this division because of circumstances that are out of our control. None of this matters until the season ends and you're in the playoffs. 

 

This is an excellent point. Point differential matters, but at the moment the Bills point differential is within a margin of error. One big win next week swings it. Something else to consider here is that this Bills regime has actually made the playoffs with a negative point differential in their 3 years back in 2017. I did say it before the season (albeit I was a little off in thinking we would remain in tight low scoring games rather than tight high scoring games) but the Bills are not going to blow teams out. It isn't who they are. It isn't who they have been. The story of the McDermott era is the Bills are good in 1 score games. Half of their regular season games under this regime have been one score games and the Bills are 17-10 for a .620 win % in those games.

 

If the point is that this point differential statistic makes it unlikely they make the playoffs - I call baloney. This regime has already shown us they can get to that level of success with some of these limitations. If the point is they won't win a Superbowl that way I have more sympathy with that argument. Because when you get blown out a couple of times a season and when you win you normally win narrowly that gives you a very narrow path to a Championship.

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I swear this person, who claims to have some sort of IQ, is the mother of all trolls.

 

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7 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

It's not a myth. 

You say "every QB" and I'm specifying "GREAT" QB's... There's a difference.


Did you watch KC-Den yesterday?

 

EDIT: or last night’s game?

Edited by thebandit27

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I have the following comments for the OP:

     1.  The stat loses a lot of its relevance now that the playoff field has been expanded.

     2.  Division winners have always been in the playoffs.  And the Bills are better than even money at this point to win the division.

    3.   With almost 50% odds the team you should really notify of this is Cleveland.

 

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5 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Remove one awful game and they are +22 right? 

 

Hell, remove the last garbage time touchdown in that game and they're +3. 

Edited by BillsEnthusiast
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W-L record suggests the Bills are a good team (even if two wins came against the semi-pro Jets).

 

Point differential suggests the Bills are slightly below average.

 

Yardage totals (Bills are #13 on O; #15 on D) suggest the Bills are a bit above average.  

 

Putting this all together, the Bills maybe go 5-4 the rest of the way to finish 10-6?  Then one-and-done in the playoffs?  

 

But as a fan, I'm hoping for something much better: Josh & the passing game get more consistent, the running game finds its footing, the defense recaptures the magic of last year, Bass overcomes his rookie blues, and so on.  

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It is an odd year. In general. I posted about this earlier as well. Not a ton of great teams with great playoff performances with a negative differential. I am more concerned with the differential itself than the record  and the differential together. It is not a great place to be, but the good thing is , there is still 9 games to go to turn that around. 

If Tua is reasonable next year and NE gets the 10 starters that opted out back, the Bills won't be able to get away with what is happening on the defensive side of the ball. 

Hopefully we get better as the year goes on. 


 

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The issue I have with this stat, especially as it relates to this Bills team, is that if you remove the Titans' blow-out, the Bills are actually 158 to 136, +22 point differential. Given the notion that it is ONE game and that the ONE game was in a week when the Bills weren't sure if they were even going to play, let alone who the opponent would be, and then have to turn around and play one of the highest scoring Offenses in the league following the week they didn't know if or who they were going to play, I'm good.

 

I do understand why under normal circumstances this would be a concern, for all the reasons mentioned and that for 4 games the Bills were one of the top 3 Offenses in the league, I'm not too worried. They lost 3/4 of their TE room to COVID, their #2 WR which was a big reason for those first 3 weeks of success on Offense has been missing, their starting LG was out injured yesterday while the starting RG has been on IR. While I'm not making excuses, I am providing some context. COVID, injuries, changing opponents mid-week and dealing with the normal issues in the NFL changes many aspects of what is "normal". Additionally, Defense has a part in the differential as well and Defense across the league has been abysmal this year; some due to the change in how penalties are being called and much of it due to the lack of Pre-Season and conditioning, which also contributes to the injuries across the league.

 

In short, this is a different year and if you want to look at the past to be concerned with the present or future, then I understand your reluctance but I also think it's just as prudent to put all of the aforementioned factors into the conversation for context. 

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10 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Yeah, the point differential is used to predict future games ... but only by the deeply clueless in situations such as the one you're citing.

 

At this point, schedule is still a massive factor, as is the simple fact that six games are far too small a sample size to know much of anything.

 

The reason why 5 of 14 teams made the playoffs is that if you flip a coin fourteen times, you'll get heads somewhere close to seven times, and if it's only off by one or two, what you have may well be the results of pure luck. The difference between 7 of 14 and 5 of 14 in such a small sample size is such that anyone with the slightest clue about statistics will tell you that it shows you absolutely nothing.

 

 

 

 

You're right about the massive amount of bad takes.

 

All of us .... me too ... need to stop feeding him and them.

 

Yeah, that's not a good analysis because you're missing, I think, a central point.  The very reason it's a small sample size is because at this point in the season, it's rare for a team to have such a good record despite earning a negative point differential.  Usually, winning teams have positive point differentials.  We don't.  That gives us reason to pause & reflect.  

 

So what are we to make of the Bills negative point differential?  Because the sample size is indeed small, it's hard to say anything definitively.  But it's not a sample size of one.   

 

We need to consider that most teams that start out 5-2 with a negative point differential fail to make the playoffs despite that advantage of starting out 5-2.   In other words, other teams with worse records were able to chase them down in the standings by season end.  That's not a good sign.  

 

If a 5-2 team is truly worthy of being a 5-2 team, you'd expect it to finish 11-5 or 12-6.  Yet most 5-2 teams with negative point differentials don't even make the playoffs.  They fail to keep the positive trajectory of the early season.  

 

In the past 5 years, only 6 of 60 playoff teams had negative point differentials at the end of the season.   None of those teams won the SB.  Point differential is not a meaningless stat.  A negative point differential - after 7 or 16 games - usually means bad things.  

 

I guess the best look would be to see how many teams with negative point differentials after 7 games ended up in the playoffs and had success there.  

 

 

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8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This is an excellent point. Point differential matters, but at the moment the Bills point differential is within a margin of error. One big win next week swings it. Something else to consider here is that this Bills regime has actually made the playoffs with a negative point differential in their 3 years back in 2017. I did say it before the season (albeit I was a little off in thinking we would remain in tight low scoring games rather than tight high scoring games) but the Bills are not going to blow teams out. It isn't who they are. It isn't who they have been. The story of the McDermott era is the Bills are good in 1 score games. Half of their regular season games under this regime have been one score games and the Bills are 17-10 for a .620 win % in those games.

 

If the point is that this point differential statistic makes it unlikely they make the playoffs - I call baloney. This regime has already shown us they can get to that level of success with some of these limitations. If the point is they won't win a Superbowl that way I have more sympathy with that argument. Because when you get blown out a couple of times a season and when you win you normally win narrowly that gives you a very narrow path to a Championship.

 

For me, this is the point.  Unless the Bills improve on offense or defense or both, I'm thinking the SB is out of reach this year.  Our point differential is mediocre.  Our offensive and defensive yardage rankings are likewise pretty average.  We went up against a couple of the AFC's best teams and got spanked.  This Bills team - at present - doesn't look like a Super Bowl contender.   

 

But given our competition in the AFCE, I think we'll make the playoffs as AFCE champs.   And as a fan, I still hold  out hope for a playoff run.  Occasionally teams get better as the season progresses.  I can only hope that's our case.  

Edited by hondo in seattle

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This isn't anything like the 08 or 11 seasons. Josh is legit Fitz and Trent aren't/weren't. I also think McD is a much better coach than Jauron or Chan. In addition the team is deeper and coming off of a 10 win season. Also the Pats games are much more winnable than in years past.

 

If this team beats the Pats Sunday they will be sitting at 6-2 and in my mind win at least 4 more games to get to 10 wins and a likely division win. If they beat the Pats, looking at the rest of the schedule I see likely wins against the Fins, Pats, Broncos and Chargers. Toss up games against the Cardinals and 49ers and likely losses against the Seahawks and Steelers.

 

Assuming they can win 3 out of 4 likely wins and 1 out of the 4 games that are either a toss up or unfavorable game that would get them to 10 wins and a playoff spot and likely be good enough to win the division.

 

Point difference is misleading the Jets, Fins and Raiders have all scored garbage time TD's. That's causing deflated point differences.

 

 

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On 10/25/2020 at 9:26 PM, Miyagi-Do Karate said:


this, plus the titans blow out. Point differential very misleading this year, IMO. 

Just playing devil’s advocate, but the Bills have two wins against arguably the worst team of the past four years or so. They struggled against Miami, got a little lucky against a Rams team that dominated them statistically, and had a legit win against a decent Raiders team. They were domInated by TN and KC. The Bills aren’t a bad team, but their defense isn’t good and their offense is pretty one dimensional (all Allen). Plus the remainder of the schedule is pretty difficult. I do think they can to 10-6 if they beat AZ, which should win the division. But I don’t see a lot more than that.

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On 10/25/2020 at 8:39 PM, High Football IQ said:

Interesting tidbit that is telling and likely forshadowing another 2008/2011 type of season:

 

 

don't forget there is an extra play-off team in each division this year

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So actually - we are in great shape.

 

There are now 3 teams this season at 5-2 and a negative point differential.

 

Historically 35% make the playoffs - that would mean one of 3 this year - plus we have added playoff spots.

 

Out of the 3 teams we are the only ones leading our division and we are 1.5 games up on a team switching QBs and getting ready to hit their hard schedule.

 

The other 2 do not lead their divisions and will be fighting for wildcard spots.

 

So let’s allow the Low IQ thread to die off. 

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23 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Just playing devil’s advocate, but the Bills have two wins against arguably the worst team of the past four years or so. They struggled against Miami, got a little lucky against a Rams team that dominated them statistically, and had a legit win against a decent Raiders team. They were domInated by TN and KC. The Bills aren’t a bad team, but their defense isn’t good and their offense is pretty one dimensional (all Allen). Plus the remainder of the schedule is pretty difficult. I do think they can to 10-6 if they beat AZ, which should win the division. But I don’t see a lot more than that.


I feel like I have seen enough of this team to know we aren’t a pretender.  If the defense has turned the corner a bit and gets healthier, they can be respectable— which is all we need. Other than KC and probably Pittsburgh, they can play with anyone. 

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47 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:


I feel like I have seen enough of this team to know we aren’t a pretender.  If the defense has turned the corner a bit and gets healthier, they can be respectable— which is all we need. Other than KC and probably Pittsburgh, they can play with anyone. 

I expect they’ll get destroyed by both SEA and Pitt, and they were already massacred by TN. SF is a horrible matchup too. It’s ok to lose those games; they just need to win the others and split with NE. That gives them a home playoff game.

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