Going for 2 at 23-16

[Billsfan1972]

6 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

As soon as Mahomes rolled out, I knew it was over. I knew someone would be wide open. 

It's really the nature of the miss. That was a Van der Jagt level miss. It was 20 yards to the right!

As did I.....  No real pressure (compared to KC on Allen).  

 

Unfortunately he's a rookie & was excited and got too amped.  Again coaching.

12 minutes ago, Ned Flanders said:

Did you see the game last night?  Did you notice the weather conditions?

 

52 yard FGs are rarely "very makeable" in the type of conditions played in last night and probably 50-50 under perfect conditions or in a dome.

 

People treating the Bass miss like it was a chip shot...

No, you were right...the defense should have stopped a THIRD AND TWELVE play and given the Bills offense the ball for a chance to win the game.

Regardless, the point was to give the Bills every opportunity.  They make the 2-points at 23-16 a fg keeps it one possession.

 

They miss and stop KC and score a TD, they can then decide to tie or win the game. 

 

Way more options if they went for 2.   

 

Too much to ask of McD.

[SDS]

You are facing a prolific offense and the best field goal kicker in the league. You are giving up 8 yards/ carry.  To rest your hopes on a full stop is silly.
 

If they score a touchdown then the game is over, but anything other than a touchdown you are still in during the game. If you missed the two point conversion you have to stop a score anyway, so you are literally no worse off. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

It's a good call out.  i think it is a 50/50 judgement call and I don't fault McD for going for the XP.  If the Chiefs player's knee is not down we get the ball with a chance to win with a TD and XP.  

 

There are about a dozen other things to fault McD on and this is low on the priority list for me

1 minute ago, SDS said:

You are facing a prolific offense and the best field goal kicker in the league. You are giving up 8 yards/ carry.  To rest your hopes on a full stop is silly.
 

If they score a touchdown then the game is over, but anything other than a touchdown you are still in during the game. If you missed the two point conversion you have to stop a score anyway, so you are literally no worse off. 

Well that isn't true.  You are worse off if you miss the 2 pt.  It means that a TD and XP only gets a tie not a win.  Again it's a 50/50 decision for me but it is inaccurate to say there is no downside.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

I would have been good with it. I thought about it too. For all the senseless times that they try to explain why it works, that was one where I got it. It gave you some wiggle room either way. I think if I was a team that nobody was expecting to win (like us) I would have done it 

[Billsfan1972]

14 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

It's a good call out.  i think it is a 50/50 judgement call and I don't fault McD for going for the XP.  If the Chiefs player's knee is not down we get the ball with a chance to win with a TD and XP.  

 

There are about a dozen other things to fault McD on and this is low on the priority list for me

Well that isn't true.  You are worse off if you miss the 2 pt.  It means that a TD and XP only gets a tie not a win.  Again it's a 50/50 decision for me but it is inaccurate to say there is no downside.

Or go big & go for TD & 2 points & win 24-23......  

 

No there were more options going for 2 at 23-16, then 23-17.....  And remember extra points are no longer a gimme (ask Butker).....

[machine gun kelly]

We lost.  Let’s move on. If we made the 50/50 2pt. Conversion then 23-18 and then we would have to do it again and what if they made a TD vs. a FG.  These are endless discussions.  We lost.  As the indelible BB said, it’s onto Cincinatti.  In our case, it’s onto the Jests.

[Gordio]

2 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I was thinking that the Bills should have gone for two at 23-16.  If successful, then the fg KC kicked to make it 26, would have meant the Bills still could tie the game with another TD & 2 points.

 

To me you need to be aggressive & wonder what the wonderful sheet says is the play at that time😜.

 

The last drive (and int) meant nothing as it was a 9 point spread (2 scores).   

 

 

Going by the book it was the right call at the time but I would be lying if I said I wasn't thinking the same exact thing at the time.  Sometimes you got to think outside the box.

[Nineforty]

24 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

It's a good call out.  i think it is a 50/50 judgement call and I don't fault McD for going for the XP.  If the Chiefs player's knee is not down we get the ball with a chance to win with a TD and XP.  

 

There are about a dozen other things to fault McD on and this is low on the priority list for me

Well that isn't true.  You are worse off if you miss the 2 pt.  It means that a TD and XP only gets a tie not a win.  Again it's a 50/50 decision for me but it is inaccurate to say there is no downside.

 

A lot of factors. I choose to give the most weight to 'the way the game played out' factor.

 

Go for 2 because probability favored KC driving some and kicking a FG. Now you have a chance down 8.

 

Am I very mad? No. Is it why we lost? No.  But these things can be the difference and I feel we went against the odds.

 

Jmo

[Billsfan1972]

18 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

We lost.  Let’s move on. If we made the 50/50 2pt. Conversion then 23-18 and then we would have to do it again and what if they made a TD vs. a FG.  These are endless discussions.  We lost.  As the indelible BB said, it’s onto Cincinatti.  In our case, it’s onto the Jests.

The point is not that the Bills lost, but was it the right decision, as there is a posibility it happens again and then I'll bet dollars for donuts McD opts for the single point?

 

I asked a question & think the decision was wrong and they should have gone for 2.

 

If they made it & KC kicks the same FG, that last drive may have gone differently.

 

It comes down to coaching and understanding the options and statistical probabilities.

Edited October 20, 2020 by Billsfan1972

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I was thinking that the Bills should have gone for two at 23-16.  If successful, then the fg KC kicked to make it 26, would have meant the Bills still could tie the game with another TD & 2 points.

 

To me you need to be aggressive & wonder what the wonderful sheet says is the play at that time😜.

 

The last drive (and int) meant nothing as it was a 9 point spread (2 scores).   

 

I think the thought was if you make the XP, stop them, and kick again - you would actually have a lead.  

 

If you don't get the 2 - you lose the ability to win after a stop.  I'm not sure how that works with win probability percentages.

Edited October 20, 2020 by dneveu

[Billsfan1972]

6 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

I think the thought was if you make the XP, stop them, and kick again - you would actually have a lead.  

 

If you don't get the 2 - you lose the ability to win after a stop.  I'm not sure how that works with win probability percentages.

23-16, you still again have a choice if you score a TD to make it 23-22 (if you stop KC)....  To tie or win.

[Simon]

1 hour ago, SDS said:

You are facing a prolific offense and the best field goal kicker in the league. You are giving up 8 yards/ carry.  To rest your hopes on a full stop is silly.
 

If they score a touchdown then the game is over, but anything other than a touchdown you are still in during the game. If you missed the two point conversion you have to stop a score anyway, so you are literally no worse off. 

 

Yeah, that was where I was at also.

In fact, I thought going onside after the score was also on the table since the chances of us recovering were probably about the same as that defense forcing a punt. 😔

[SDS]

1 minute ago, Simon said:

 

Yeah, that was where I was too.

In fact, I thought going onside after the score was also on the table since the chances of us recovering were probably about the same as that defense forcing a punt. 😔

yeah, well you don’t want to look at the screen capture of that third and 12 on the Chiefs 40 yard line with four minutes left where at least three of the Chiefs offensive lineman were 5+ yards downfield. Shameful.

[Simon]

1 minute ago, SDS said:

yeah, well you don’t want to look at the screen capture of that third and 12 on the Chiefs 40 yard line with four minutes left where at least three of the Chiefs offensive lineman were 5+ yards downfield. Shameful.

I think that happens a lot with Mahomes. He's really good at flirting with the LOS, enough so that he crosses up his OLine as often as he fools defenses.

I wonder if stripes are slightly less inclined to drop that particular flag because of it.

 

[BuffBillsForLife]

McDermott is way too conservative of a coach to go for 2 there, and the Texans lost literally the day before by playing to win the game going for 2 when they didn't need to instead of kicking a PAT.  I can see the logic for going for 2, especially with Bass being shaky (or Bojo not knowing how to hold), but in that situation you go for 1 unless your kicker got carted off the field earlier.

[QCity]

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

The point is not that the Bills lost, but was it the right decision, as there is a posibility it happens again and then I'll bet dollars for donuts McD opts for the single point?

 

It comes down to coaching and understanding the options and statistical probabilities.

 

He made the right call by the traditional book and even by many advanced statistical models. So if it happens again I hope he does opt for the single point.

 

Is there a model for going against Mahomes on a rainy, wet field, in a windy stadium when your defense has given up 250yds on the ground? No, so I guess that leaves room for an argument. Regardless, it wasn't the reason we lost the game.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

3 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Or score a td and one 2 point convert and win 24-23.

 

There was plenty of time left and KC did get a field goal.

 

We're talking about one of the best offenses in the NFL.

 

And did you really think KC was going to be held to a field goal on their last drive?

 

I thought kicking was the right mindset, else you're already telling the defense I know you can't stop them, to me very much a losers mentality.

[Mat68]

I would have kicked the extra point and tried a variation of a suprise onside kick.  They were ready for it but an oblong ball on a wet night had better odds of making a bounce vs stopping kc.  Also they would be on a shorter feild and ate less clock.  

[ILBillsfan]

4 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I was thinking that the Bills should have gone for two at 23-16.  If successful, then the fg KC kicked to make it 26, would have meant the Bills still could tie the game with another TD & 2 points.

 

To me you need to be aggressive & wonder what the wonderful sheet says is the play at that time😜.

 

The last drive (and int) meant nothing as it was a 9 point spread (2 scores).   

if the defense gets the stop on 3rd and 12 this wouldn't even be discussed and it is not too much to ask a defense to contain an offense on third and 12

[Like A Mofo]

4 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I was thinking that the Bills should have gone for two at 23-16.  If successful, then the fg KC kicked to make it 26, would have meant the Bills still could tie the game with another TD & 2 points.

 

To me you need to be aggressive & wonder what the wonderful sheet says is the play at that time😜.

 

The last drive (and int) meant nothing as it was a 9 point spread (2 scores).   

 

Valid point but perhaps KC attacks more late and they get a TD instead of a FG.