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Josh Allen observation


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Just now, Penfield45 said:


says who. Allen didn’t show anything last night that he was up for a game winning drive. I’m not hating on him just pointing out that Mahomes was the significantly better QB last night and Allen had another disappointing game vs a top team 

 

Allen had just lead a superb drive that ended up with Beasley scoring.  

It was the 4th Quarter Josh Allen we love to see.

Had we got the ball back with 4 mins left (down by only 6) on the KC 40 yard line i was confident we would score a go ahead TD.  

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6 minutes ago, Penfield45 said:


what lol

 

mahomes went 21/26, he was very accurate in the same conditions Allen was playing in 


He had help from his receivers on some of those. Brown catches that 3rd down throw or Diggs catches that bomb in the end zone the narrative may be different 

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14 minutes ago, Penfield45 said:


what lol

 

mahomes went 21/26, he was very accurate in the same conditions Allen was playing in 

 

if that kelce super catch (that the did a quick snap after to avoid a replay) was ruled incomplete or kecle just didn't magically scoop it, they likely woulda had to punt from deeper and not scored the FG.  so his stats were good, but i still don't think mahomes lit it up as much as the boxscore says

 

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11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think anyone is putting him in that conversation. I mean sure he was in the MVP conversation through 4 weeks but as for in that competition with the 2 best Quarterbacks in the league? Not sure anyone put him there. 

For sure Bill. I'm not sure you can even put him in the top 10 category. He flashes signs of greatness while reverting back to poor footwork and inaccurate passes. His potential and ceiling is quite high but in the end accuracy almost always reigns supreme. The first 4 games he was playing perhaps beyond sustainability. The last two games he's been quite awful. I suspect the truth lies somewhere in the middle. 

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To say Allen hasn't played well against good teams is to forget he played very well against LA & LV and pretty darn well against TN.

 

For sure Allen was off last night but I counted at least 4 drops including one that should have been a 45 yard TD pass to Diggs.  Allen attempted 3 deep passes yesterday and he was accurate on 2 of them. The first was a great play by the Chiefs DB to deflect away a great deep ball to Brown by Allen.  The 2nd was the Diggs drop at the back of the end zone of a perfectly placed Allen throw. Allen did miss his 3rd deep ball by a lot.

 

To claim that the weather didn't impact Mahomes negatively is to not have watched the game last night.  Until that 40 yard strike late in the game to a WR most of his completions were to his TE's and RB's.  These are position groups that are way below average for the Bills - particularly when Knox is out.  Just look at the difference in production between the Bills & Chiefs RB's & TE's:

 

Chiefs RB Rushing yards = 35 carries for 204 yards & 1 TD

Bills RB Rushing yards = 15 carries for 42 yards

 

Chiefs RB & TE catches/receiving yards = 11 catches for 90 yards & 2 TD's

Bills RB & TE catches/receiving yards = 2 catches for 20 yards

 

That's 46 touches for 294 yards & 3 TD's versus 17 touches for 62 yards and no TD's.

 

And this was on a night where the weather conditions and defensive game plans of BOTH teams schemed to take away the WR pass.  The problem seems to be clear to me and Allen is the least of it.

 

And don't forget Mahomes should have lost a fumble and  been picked by Norman in the 3rd quarter.  How much different the game and our opinion of how players performed in it would be if those two things had went the Bills way.  That fumble sat on the ground for a good 5 seconds.  Where the hell was the DL?

 

 

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Josh is still a Kid, since he has taken the reigns halfway through his rookie year he has been expected to be the man. Brady was only asked to manage the game early in his career, Rodgers was still watching, Mahomes fell into the most ideal situation a QB could ask for. We havent given him a reliable running game and our defense has dissapeared.

            He is in the shotgun every play which tells me the he needs help seeing the defense. It's also easier for the defense to read the offense and puts your RB deeper in the back field receiving hand offs

       In addition he has seemed to be handcuffed from running, I understand he needs to be protected but you need to turn him loose to win big games.

 

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2 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

For sure Bill. I'm not sure you can even put him in the top 10 category. He flashes signs of greatness while reverting back to poor footwork and inaccurate passes. His potential and ceiling is quite high but in the end accuracy almost always reigns supreme. The first 4 games he was playing perhaps beyond sustainability. The last two games he's been quite awful. I suspect the truth lies somewhere in the middle. 

 

If you are right and Allen is half way between his first 4 games and the last 2 then he is a top 10 QB.

 

If accuracy was such a fixed constant then how could Allen be over 70% through his first 4 games?  And he was at or near the top of the NFL in average yards per attempt while doing that.  I could buy a hopelessly inaccurate QB getting lucky for a game or two but not 4 in a row. And don't forget that the Bills led the NFL in drops through those 4 games.

 

Last night was a classic weather game that causes a drop in most QB's accuracy.  Mahomes was accurate because he is the best QB in the NFL, faced one of the worst defenses in the NFL and his team has the horses to execute a pounding rushing attack and short passing game.  This last bit requires a dominating TE and RB. We have neither.

 

If you look at Allen's accuracy it's gotten substantially better his last 17 games versus his first 16 games.  Ditto for the number of TD throws and the reduction in his INT's.  That's a pretty decent sample size.

 

But the reality is that Allen isn't there yet.  We hoped that he could keep up the pace of the first 4 games.  Obviously that's not going to happen.  But by the end of this year we'll see a QB that has improved greatly from last year.

 

Next year is the year the Bills make their move.  The goal for this year is to have the young guys keep improving and to win the division.  Anything more is icing on the cake.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, fansince88 said:

Question. Did he look to his armband last season? I dont remember it. Did they install alot of new plays that he hasnt learned? Just some thoughts.

 

Yes he used an armband last year.  

The reason a QB has an armband is to quicken the play call.  The play is given a number and that's what is called in thru the helmet.

It's nothing more than a cross reference sheet.

 

Brady's armband.

 

Tom Brady's play-call wristband is proof NFL QBs have the hardest job in  sports | For The Win

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9 hours ago, Gene1973 said:

Allen is regressing right before our eyes, some of us expected this. If he was a QB comming of age he wouldn't suck in games vs. better competition.

He’s regressing. Lol.  And next week, he’ll be improving after a couple good games, then regressing after a couple bad games.  He is coming of age, he’s just not finished getting better. He’s playing and he’s learning.  The titans sent 4 and sat in a deep zone the entire game. The chiefs, brought the house and decided the best way to defend the WRs is to hold them.  He’s seeing more and more looks and he’ll go to the classroom to learn more and more about it.  Some QBs improve. He’s still improving. He’s on his way to achieve the aforementioned “coming of age” title.  He’s just not there yet. 

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 He did bring us back in Rams game. I feel on big stage when he is playing against  star qb or its a prime time game he seems to get flustered or nervous early in the game. If he starts out well, when he has easy completions to start he settles in much better. I am sure he thought he had to out duel Mahomes to get the win. 

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3 minutes ago, billsherd said:

 He did bring us back in Rams game. I feel on big stage when he is playing against  star qb or its a prime time game he seems to get flustered or nervous early in the game. If he starts out well, when he has easy completions to start he settles in much better. I am sure he thought he had to out duel Mahomes to get the win. 

 

I agree wholeheartedly.  The Pats* game will be a big challenge for him.  I think he can settle in more the next couple of weeks.

 

I will add that the big defensive regression has to also have an affect on his game.  Thus your point about out dueling Mahomes.

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Allen missed some throws and the drops were not helping him. There were multiple drops on short routes. Drops on 3rd down at the sticks are killers. Allen put up a couple bombs that didnt work out....one the DB made a great play and the other was right off of Diggs hands. It would have been a tough catch but one he can make. The Bills defense was playing soft to not get beat deep so they got beat everywhere else. Until the Bills figure out how to stop a good running team, this is what we are going to see. Hopefully Josh and the offense can get back to putting 30 points on the board because they will need it. 

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2 hours ago, billsherd said:

 He did bring us back in Rams game. I feel on big stage when he is playing against  star qb or its a prime time game he seems to get flustered or nervous early in the game. If he starts out well, when he has easy completions to start he settles in much better. I am sure he thought he had to out duel Mahomes to get the win. 

 

Dabolls playcalling in the 1st half really didn't help. Yea Allen missed a few throws but where were the high completion % throws and screens? Offense was playing scared. 

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3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't think this is a reasonable characterization of any Josh Allen game.


It is an interesting thought though. I “feel” like when Allen starts rough he rarely gets into a groove. But unsure if it fits in the “real” category. 
 

If this were peak pandemic and I wasn’t getting ruined at work I would go back and check out first 5, 10, series passes and see what the W/L or overall stat line is. Too bad I am so far away from retirement or this is how I would spend my days. Haha

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