Scouting The Kansas City Chiefs

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

Man...Tuesday night was a tough one to recover from. A total team loss where the opponent just executed better in all three phases. And who do we have next on the schedule but the last team you'd want to see coming off that performance...the defending Super Bowl champions! However, we're still 4-1, we look like we should be healthier at least on paper, and most importantly, Josh Allen looks like he can keep us in almost any game so far this season. Still plenty of reasons to be excited about this team while acknowledging that some growth needs to happen as well if we want to be genuine AFC contenders. 

 

Same as last week, I wanted to do an amateur deep dive/scouting session into the Chiefs' last three games based on their game highlights (granted it's not the All-22 film but still a combined 40+ minutes of video) and then list some keys/X-factors for our matchup this week. Anyways, hope you enjoy/find this useful:

 

***Offensive and Defensive Ranks are based on Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average statistics***

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings

 

September 29th- Week 3 Win AT Baltimore (13th ranked offense and 10th ranked defense after Week 3, current record: 4-1) by a score of 34-20:

• Patrick Mahomes- 385 yards and 4 TDs. Incredible touch on his first pass TD to Hill, beating excellent man coverage. Took some vicious hits, but mostly after throwing the ball and making some positive plays. Great feel/instincts vs pressure and moved really well in the pocket. Wasn't sacked at all which is really impressive vs the talented Ravens front seven.
• Chiefs Running Game- Was held in check for the most part. Thompson lost a fumble and CEH only rushed for 64 yards on 3.2 YPC. Clyde the Glide has looked more like a rookie in recent weeks after his big Week1 breakout performance, hopefully we can keep it that way. 
• Tyreek Hill- took a reverse 22 yards on KC's first offensive snap. Beat Marcus Peters by a step on an excellent TD/throw from Mahomes.
• Sammy Watkins- ruled OUT for Monday night. Made a number of clutch receptions on third down to keep drives going. 
• Anthony Sherman- likely OUT for Monday night after being placed on the COVID list. Caught a shovel pass TD in this game and is an underrated piece of the KC attack.
• Chiefs Run Defense- struggled to contain Lamar Jackson on some scrambles and generally appeared susceptible to runs off-tackle. Allowed a high YPC to Jackson (9.2) and Gus Edwards (9.8), but didn't allow the Ravens to sustain long drives that ended in points very often.
• Chiefs Pass Defense- shut down Lamar and the Ravens passing game weapons especially in the first half. Mark Andrews was almost invisible in this game which is super impressive. No huge significant plays to note really. Zero turnovers forced and their only two sacks came while up 14 points late in the game.
• Miscellaneous- KC gave up a 93 yard kick return TD in the first half. Andre Roberts (who I rate as one of the best returners in the league despite what was likely the worst game of his career on Tuesday) should have room to operate in this match-up. Also, Baltimore blitzed a lot in this matchup and the KC O-line and backs gave Mahomes enough time to beat the Ravens secondary more times than not. I think the Bills need to avoid blitzing (it hasn't seemed to work when we have blitzed in past games) and drop 7 or even 8 into coverage. This strategy has been as effective as any against KC in the past. Lastly, Kelce made no real impression in this game which was strange.

 

 

October 6th- Week 4 Win at Home vs New England (17th ranked offense and 23th ranked defense after Week 4, current record: 2-2) by a score of 26-10:

• Patrick Mahomes- Just 236 yards and 2 TDs. Got sacked and fumbled late in the second half which should have led to points for NE (more on this below). A theme from Week 3 was re-played as Mahomes continued to beat blitzes with either his arm or his legs to move the chains. Was somewhat limited by the Pats secondary, but keep drives going and was only sacked once. 
• Chiefs Running Game- CEH with just 64 rushing yards and 4.0 YPC in this one. 
• Travis Kelce- Quiet again early, but had a huge catch and run with the score at 6-3 Chiefs just before the 4th quarter. 
• Tyreek Hill- dominant on KC's opening drive. Pats did a nice job limiting him after that with the exception of another WR reverse for a TD in the late 3rd. 
• Mecole Hardman- took a jet sweep for a TD late in the game that sealed the win. How you defend against the elite speed of both Hill and Hardman is a question not many defenses have been able to answer. The Chiefs consistently deploy a lot of misdirection and use both of these guys down near the goal line. 
• Chiefs Run Defense- got eaten up by the Pats interior O-line and got gashed for some big runs (185 rushing yards by the Patriots and 5+ YPC). 
• Chiefs Pass Defense- After not making many note-worthy plays in Week 3, the KC defense made several against NE's back-up signal callers. Hoyer gifted an INT on the Pats opening drive to Juan Thornhill (who is part of a boom-or-bust safety tandem with the Honey Badger, I liked JT a lot in the 2019 draft and think he's a promising young player in this league). Just two sacks but both were significant- an absolutely huge play by Frank Clark led to the clock running out on NE who were on the 13 yard line and should have come away with at least a FG. Another big sack and forced fumble by Taco Charlton on Hoyer ended a second Patriots red-zone opportunity and led to Hoyer's benching. Stidham came in and threw a nice fade TD to Harry to make it a three point game in the 4th. They got another gift of a pick-6 (straight through Edelman's hands) that Mathieu took to the house and Stidham threw a second INT in garbage time as well. 
• Miscellaneous- Cam Newton's absence had a huge impact on this game as New England was able to move the ball pretty effectively, but often stalled in the red zone. However, NE made this more of a game than I expected them to and the final score flattered KC in my opinion. 

 

 

October 11th - Week 5 Loss at Home to Las Vegas (6th ranked offense and 31st ranked defense after Week 5, current record: 3-2) by a score of 40-32:

• Patrick Mahomes- 340 yards and 2 TDs, but barely reached 50% CP. Ran for a TD on their opening drive after faking the typical jet sweep to Hill (their entire goal line package seems to involve various levels of jet motion). Showed a rare moment of poor awareness on a huge 3rd down sack by Maxx Crosby in the 4th quarter that killed a drive. Threw a back-breaking INT into double coverage which Jeff Heath returned to the 2 yard line. Sacked three times. 
• Chiefs Running Game- almost non-existent in this game. CEH had 40 yards and 4.0 YPC.
• Travis Kelce- 108 yards and 1 TD on 12 targets. His best game of the season. 
• Tyreek Hill- scored another jet sweep/reverse type of TD on KC's second scoring drive. Then made a big time over-the-shoulder catch to set up their third TD of the first half. Otherwise Vegas did a great job on both Hill and Hardman, the Bills need to watch that tape on repeat. 
• Sammy Watkins- ruled OUT for Monday night. Caught a scramble drill TD late in the second quarter. 
• Chiefs Run Defense- gave up a couple long runs and the tape showed a lot of missed tackles. Jacobs carried the KC linebackers for extra yards and a couple TDs. Allowed Vegas to salt away the final minutes of the game and couldn't get off the field. 
• Chiefs Pass Defense- Breeland picked off Carr on an overthrow in the 1st quarter. However, that was the only real positive as the KC secondary got beat deep by Ruggs and Agholor pretty often in this one. Also gave up a 40+ yard catch to Hunter Renfrow on a big 3rd and 18 play late in the game (nice to remember we aren't the only ones who have given up third-and-longs!). Gave up 347 yards and 3 TDs to Carr in total.
• Miscellaneous- KC only sacked Carr once and failed to generate much pressure. Conversely, Vegas was able to affect Mahomes and get pressure much more effectively than what Baltimore or New England achieved which is shocking. Vegas appeared to bring delayed blitzes occasionally and played a lot of nickel/dime packages, helped by the fact that KC's run game was ineffective. 

 

 

October 19th - Week 6 Kansas City Chiefs (current record: 4-1, 2nd ranked offense and 9th ranked defense after Week 5) at Home vs Buffalo Bills (current record: 4-1, 5th ranked offense and 21st ranked defense after Week 5)

• Bills On Offense- KC's defensive line and safety tandem have looked impressive to me throughout these three most recent games, but I can't recall many big plays being made by their LBs or CBs interestingly enough. If our O-line can keep Josh clean and give him time, I don't believe KC can cover Diggs/Brown/Beasley who represent a better trio of WRs that any the Chiefs have faced so far this year. I would say that on paper we should also be able to run the ball, but I have my doubts after our rushing struggles recently. A pass-heavy game plan with Josh using his rushing threat more often should allow us to put up points in what will likely be a shoot out. 

 

• Bills On Defense- as discussed above, I believe a strategy of dropping numbers into coverage and switching coverages close to the snap has been and would be the most effective strategy to limit Mahomes. A few delayed blitzes especially using DBs could be effective against KC's pass protection based on what I observed in their past three games. Our DEs need to contain and set the edges much more effectively than what they showed vs. the Titans (looking at you Jerry Hughes!). If we can take away the run game and make KC one dimensional while also limiting their big play ability in the pass game as Vegas did, that would give us the best shot to sneak out a shootout win. I am concerned about how we match up with the elite speed of Hill and Hardman though. 

 

• On Special Teams- KC currently has the 30th ranked special teams in the league. We need to take advantage of this weakness with 1-2 big plays and to win the field position battle throughout the game. A big Andre Roberts redemption game hopefully. Also, Corey B: LACES OUT DUDE!!!

 

Alright thanks for reading! I enjoyed putting this together and will look to do so each week moving forward (will be posted earlier in the week normally). The Bills have a very tough task ahead of them on Monday Night Football, but I'm optimistic that they can right the ship to some degree in a more 'normal' week and give the Chiefs an actual game.

 

All the best, stay healthy, and Go Bills!

[3rdand12]

Very nice read for  a NON Bills Sunday afternoon.

 Well done and

Thanks

 Go Bills

[TroutDog]

Excellent info...thanks for taking the time. With both teams needing a bounce-back, I’m hoping the Bills come out pumped as it’s in their house. Also good to know the critical guys who were out last week will be back. 
 

Thanks again!

[Victory Formation]

I’m not going to say that there’s no way we win this one but it’s going to be an uphill battle.. Allen can play to a level comparable to Mahomes but the Chiefs by far have the better defense and are also a much more balanced team. Chiefs have a better D and the better run game. Bills are all Allen, Mahomes has far more help and doesn’t need to do it all himself. Probably give a respectable edge to Kansas City’s coaching staff as well. Bills probably lose by quite a bit but are also very safe with a 2 game divisional lead..

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

48 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

I’m not going to say that there’s no way we win this one but it’s going to be an uphill battle.. Allen can play to a level comparable to Mahomes but the Chiefs by far have the better defense and are also a much more balanced team. Chiefs have a better D and the better run game. Bills are all Allen, Mahomes has far more help and doesn’t need to do it all himself. Probably give a respectable edge to Kansas City’s coaching staff as well. Bills probably lose by quite a bit but are also very safe with a 2 game divisional lead..

Definitely not predicting a win in my OP, but just pointing out areas where I think we can best attack KC. I haven't been overly impressed with KC's recent run game or defense. Their special teams (aside from Butker) are pretty atrocious as well.

 

BUT...they have Mahomes and an arsenal of impressive talent and speed in the pass game that is so difficult to defend. I don't know if we can stop them, but if we can copy what the Raiders did well to some degree, we have a chance. KC will be missing Watkins, Sherman, and Osemele on offense which could impact their efficiency.

 

I want to see the Bills clean up their mistakes from last week and make life hard on Mahomes and the Chiefs. 

[3rdand12]

1 hour ago, Victory Formation said:

I’m not going to say that there’s no way we win this one but it’s going to be an uphill battle.. Allen can play to a level comparable to Mahomes but the Chiefs by far have the better defense and are also a much more balanced team. Chiefs have a better D and the better run game. Bills are all Allen, Mahomes has far more help and doesn’t need to do it all himself. Probably give a respectable edge to Kansas City’s coaching staff as well. Bills probably lose by quite a bit but are also very safe with a 2 game divisional lead..

do not count us out.
 as our Defense has struggled this year , they also were fairly very good last season. They should recover that form sooner than later

[Rico]

Punch the Rat in his Ratface and the Bills win.

[DallasBillsFan1]

AJ Epinesa will have a break out game.

[97bills]

23 minutes ago, DallasBillsFan1 said:

AJ Epinesa will have a break out game.

Man that would be great 

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

11 hours ago, DallasBillsFan1 said:

AJ Epinesa will have a break out game.

That would be cool to see. Also hoping to see a bit more of Cam Lewis over Taron Johnson in this one. Johnson has really struggled this season in coverage and I thought Lewis flashed a few times in the Titans game, wouldn't mind seeing him get more of a shot at slot CB.

 

Wouldn't mind seeing a Zack Moss breakout game too...we need a big game on the ground to sustain drives and keep Mahomes and Co off the field. 

[Royale with Cheese]

As I've been thinking about this game now for a week, I think the way we beat the Chiefs is we score more points than them.  We need to score on offense and not let them score on defense.  You guys might disagree but that's the secret to success.

Edited October 19, 2020 by Royale with Cheese

[TheElectricCompany]

Chiefs are the only team in the league with a 16 game preseason, maybe we can catch them napping.

If Josh wants to join the elite QB table, he needs to start winning some of these premier matchups. It might not be this one, but he needs to hang in there and keep it close.

[JohnNord]

I’m kind of worried about the game tonight.  I can see the Bills competing but I think it’s a long shot to pull out a W

[Putin]

18 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

I’m not going to say that there’s no way we win this one but it’s going to be an uphill battle.. Allen can play to a level comparable to Mahomes but the Chiefs by far have the better defense and are also a much more balanced team. Chiefs have a better D and the better run game. Bills are all Allen, Mahomes has far more help and doesn’t need to do it all himself. Probably give a respectable edge to Kansas City’s coaching staff as well. Bills probably lose by quite a bit but are also very safe with a 2 game divisional lead..

I definitely would NOT say that Chiefs have by far better defense  we were a top 3 defense for the past couple of years , this year for what ever the reason we just haven’t played to our standard but I believe McD will figure it out and get them back on track , while the Chiefs on the other hand have always been at best middle of the pack 

Edited October 19, 2020 by Putin

[Big Turk]

19 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

I’m not going to say that there’s no way we win this one but it’s going to be an uphill battle.. Allen can play to a level comparable to Mahomes but the Chiefs by far have the better defense and are also a much more balanced team. Chiefs have a better D and the better run game. Bills are all Allen, Mahomes has far more help and doesn’t need to do it all himself. Probably give a respectable edge to Kansas City’s coaching staff as well. Bills probably lose by quite a bit but are also very safe with a 2 game divisional lead..

 

Do they?  Their defense may have played better so far but I think the Bills are the better defense and it isn't particularly close.  They just need to find their mojo again and once they do look out.

[Blainorama5]

If Bills fans are actually honest about this game - KC is the better team overall.  Bills have definitely gotten closer, but let's not kid ourselves, the Bills (even at home) are NOT at the same level as the Chiefs.  I think the Bills can probably stay competitive, but I don't have any realistic expectations that they come out ahead in this one.  Not trying to be negative - just honest.  IF the Bills somehow manage to pull off a win, I really expect it to be more of a Rams-like win (lucky bounce / call, whatever).  Straight up, I just don't see how the Bills win it otherwise.

[Jauronimo]

15 hours ago, DallasBillsFan1 said:

AJ Epinesa will have a break out game.

A breakout game for Epenesa would be about 30 snaps and staying onside for all of them.

[RoyBatty is alive]

4 hours ago, Putin said:

I definitely would NOT say that Chiefs have by far better defense  we were a top 3 defense for the past couple of years , this year for what ever the reason we just haven’t played to our standard but I believe McD will figure it out and get them back on track , while the Chiefs on the other hand have always been at best middle of the pack 

 

People and the media have git to drop this narrative already, what happened in the past is irrelevant.  By the same logic we could also say we have had one of the worst offenses, strange how we never say that and is hardly mentioned?

3 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

Do they?  Their defense may have played better so far but I think the Bills are the better defense and it isn't particularly close.  They just need to find their mojo again and once they do look out.

 

Lets get real here.

 

Our defense is NOT good this year and sp  all they need to is "just find their mojo"...yeah all I need to is win the lottery, all the defense needs to is get real real lucky tonight.

 

 

[Putin]

13 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

People and the media have git to drop this narrative already, what happened in the past is irrelevant.  By the same logic we could also say we have had one of the worst offenses, strange how we never say that and is hardly mentioned?

 

Lets get real here.

 

Our defense is NOT good this year and sp  all they need to is "just find their mojo"...yeah all I need to is win the lottery, all the defense needs to is get real real lucky tonight.

 

 

WTH are you talking about ??