YoloinOhio Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 (edited) Good article in TBN about this A completely different quarterback': NFL analysts, draft experts revisit Josh Allen projections This week, an apology form for Allen’s haters began circulating on social media. The Buffalo News took it a few steps farther, reaching out to national NFL analysts and draft experts to compare their thoughts on Allen the prospect – before the Bills traded up to select him with the seventh overall pick in 2018 – and Allen the early season NFL MVP candidate, which he looks like today. For some, it was an opportunity to take a victory lap. For others, a chance to explain themselves and atone for their sins. https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/a-completely-different-quarterback-nfl-analysts-draft-experts-revisit-josh-allen-projection/article_b405a13a-045b-11eb-8541-bbb14e5526d7.html#tracking-source=home-top-story-1 Edited October 2, 2020 by YoloinOhio 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 On 10/1/2020 at 8:57 AM, Billsatlastin2018 said: Allen still has the crazy gene in him- to make spectacular plays or make a profound embarrassing disaster. "You can be a Sweet Dream...or a Beautiful Nightmare..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warcodered Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 1 hour ago, LanderPoke said: Josh was drafted because he can make plays like this: Skip to 4:06 How many QBs on the planet could make such a play? Evade the rush and throw a 50 yard frozen rope while running to your non-dominant hand? Like Mahomes, Rogers and Allen? Wyoming actually had good talent in 2016 when he got noticed. Chase Roullier is the starting C for Washington, Hollister the TE, is second string for Seattle and has had a nice career, Brian Hill, the RB, who kept the defenses honest is the all-time Wyo leading rusher and second string RB for the Falcons and Gentry, the WR, saw game action for the Bears a few times. As we are seeing now, Josh can light it up when he has good talent surrounding him. Go Bills! Also great in that video is Allen after nearly blows a big lead letting Utah get within 7. He promptly goes on like a 40yrd run and then hits an open man deep to get it back to 14. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 38 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said: Just your friendly reminder that about 70% of this board wanted nothing to do with Allen prior to the draft. True but only a small percentage refused to be open minded and give him a chance to improve. That's what bothers me about some of these analysts. It isn't what they thought about him pre-draft, it's about their inability to change their mind even when he clearly showed progress. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 32 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: Good article in TBN about this A completely different quarterback': NFL analysts, draft experts revisit Josh Allen projections This week, an apology form for Allen’s haters began circulating on social media. The Buffalo News took it a few steps farther, reaching out to national NFL analysts and draft experts to compare their thoughts on Allen the prospect – before the Bills traded up to select him with the seventh overall pick in 2018 – and Allen the early season NFL MVP candidate, which he looks like today. For some, it was an opportunity to take a victory lap. For others, a chance to explain themselves and atone for their sins. https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/a-completely-different-quarterback-nfl-analysts-draft-experts-revisit-josh-allen-projection/article_b405a13a-045b-11eb-8541-bbb14e5526d7.html#tracking-source=home-top-story-1 My God, Kiper today sounds Salty like a Bills fan: "They did everything in their power to keep him out of their conversation of one of the bright young quarterbacks in the league. They didn’t even mention Josh Allen, a lot of people, and I’d get sick and almost turn it off. It made me disgusted, because it was like they’d go out of their way to never mention Josh Allen’s name, and if they do it’s in a negative way." “I think most of it is people didn’t like him coming out, and that’s the main thing. A lot of these people, I call them ‘ana-lie-tics.’ Analytics can lie. There are always outliers. So all the analytics people hated Josh Allen. I guess they’ll keep hating until they can’t hate anymore.” LOL at Sam Momson. I'm not quoting excerpts. Read for yourself. It's fully worthy of the guy whose colleagues told us Duck Hodges was a better QB. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 Same guy from the site who said this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 Did they miss this one? It's pretty well classic. "A parody of an NFL quarterback prospect...zero empirical evidence to suggest him becoming a reasonable NFL starting QB" Now mind you, I'm of the "3 games, let's wait and see how it rolls through the season" school of thought, but he exceeded the "reasonable NFL starting QB" last year. 2 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: Same guy from the site who said this: Yeah, Schatz. And if your model predicts something that actually happens as having a very low probability of happening, while things that your model predicts have a higher probability flame out, reasonable stats mavens look at their models and ask "did we actually get it right?" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Did they miss this one? It's pretty well classic. "A parody of an NFL quarterback prospect...zero empirical evidence to suggest him becoming a reasonable NFL starting QB" Now mind you, I'm of the "3 games, let's wait and see how it rolls through the season" school of thought, but he exceeded the "reasonable NFL starting QB" last year. Yeah, Schatz. And if your model predicts something that actually happens as having a very low probability of happening, while things that your model predicts have a higher probability flame out, reasonable stats mavens look at their models and ask "did we actually get it right?" Mr Schatz the Bed? He just doesn’t want to be wrong, and I pray he is. Keep it up, Josh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, Augie said: Mr Schatz the Bed? He just doesn’t want to be wrong, and I pray he is. Keep it up, Josh! The "I wasn't wrong" drum will be beat for years to come is my guess. Allen could win the superbowl and be MVP and the come out the following season and have a crap first game and you'll see the "I TOLD YOU!" stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, The Wiz said: The "I wasn't wrong" drum will be beat for years to come is my guess. Allen could win the superbowl and be MVP and the come out the following season and have a crap first game and you'll see the "I TOLD YOU!" stuff. Sam Momson will see a few statistical signs that he'll regress to the mean Quack, Quack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said: Sam Momson will see a few statistical signs that he'll regress to the mean Exactly why I said "I wasn't wrong". They will pick every stat apart to find his shortcomings so they can say "I wasn't wrong". When you say "I was right" about anything you need proof beyond a doubt that you were. At this point, very few have been right but they will point out they weren't wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo716 Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 1 hour ago, DuckyBoys said: there are 4 or 5 players in Wyomings draft history that made it longterm the nfl. Not exactly a hotbed. Jay Novacek, Conrad Dobler, Jim Kick I think that hurt him a lot. I think the scouts weighed his college results a ton more than his combine numbers and eyeball test. He was my favorite of the 2018 qbs because I wanted the Bills to shoot for the moon. Better to have a fast bust and go try again than be stuck with mediocrity for a 5 year cycle Khalil Mack went fourth overall from UB. Which has also had only a handful of guys stay in the league long term It doesn't matter where you go Universally most scouts saw the talent but knew he had a good amount to clean up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punching Bag Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 42 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: Same guy from the site who said this: "Absolutely no chance" is not about probabilities. Writer probably could not pass Statistics class without cheating. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warcodered Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: My God, Kiper today sounds Salty like a Bills fan: "They did everything in their power to keep him out of their conversation of one of the bright young quarterbacks in the league. They didn’t even mention Josh Allen, a lot of people, and I’d get sick and almost turn it off. It made me disgusted, because it was like they’d go out of their way to never mention Josh Allen’s name, and if they do it’s in a negative way." “I think most of it is people didn’t like him coming out, and that’s the main thing. A lot of these people, I call them ‘ana-lie-tics.’ Analytics can lie. There are always outliers. So all the analytics people hated Josh Allen. I guess they’ll keep hating until they can’t hate anymore.” LOL at Sam Momson. I'm not quoting excerpts. Read for yourself. It's fully worthy of the guy whose colleagues told us Duck Hodges was a better QB. Kiper took a lot of crap for it I think. 32 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: Same guy from the site who said this: I don't think you get to say "Allen is the battleground that old school scouts are going to die on," and just brush it aside when they seem to be right. 10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Sam Momson will see a few statistical signs that he'll regress to the mean Quack, Quack PFF on the week 4 predictions video I think talked about Allen being rated high on things that aren't really stable so will probably regress. But they did also say he was real high on the more stable ones as well so more even handed than usual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WideNine Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 21 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: This. They didn't miss at all. They were exactly on the money. They knew he had a very very high ceiling but was a developmental guy, and that development is unpredictable. Sometimes it happens and sometimes it doesn't, but without question it takes time even if it works, and NFL teams would rather take a guy who will achieve his potential as soon as possible, all things being equal. There were some doubters, there always are, but the consensus was he'd be a first rounder, high ceiling, would take time if he did develop. This is fair. There are plenty of so-called draft experts out there and analysts that have shows and/or followers, but most scouting reports were high on Allen's potential and did not really sugar-coat that he was a project. Just to show the disparity between a scouting approach and a draft analyst/commentator's approach - I just picked two at random. It is interesting what scouts focus on vs analysts... my opinionated take is that those who are more analysts and media personalities love to quote numbers, but numbers without context are not very meaningful. If you just look at the numbers, Allen has thrown an interception this year. Draft analyst - Allen mostly red flags: https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/4/2/16913670/josh-allen-wyoming-nfl-draft-college-schedule-strength-opponents Scout assessment from Dave-Te Thomas back in 2018: https://www.bigblueview.com/2018/4/21/17264242/nfl-draft-report-josh-allen-cream-of-quarterback-crop-2018-nfl-draft-sam-darnold-josh-rosen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wagon Circler Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 Many of us heard what was being said about Josh, "great athlete, huge, big arm, a little raw" and were reminded of E.J. Manuel. I did not want another E.J. I was wrong. I was actually heartened by Josh's wonderlich score and thought he could learn an NFL offense. Accuracy was the issue. He has greatly improved with the help of Jordan Palmer and the Bills coaching staff. The Josh Allen experience! Enjoy the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 Tom Brady was a sixth round pick. They don’t measure heart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punching Bag Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said: Tom Brady was a sixth round pick. They don’t measure heart Or acting ability or ethics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FieldGeneral Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 My make or break test is NE and KC. We will see how he reacts when he sees defenses that change and run formations that he isn't used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, Limeaid said: Or acting ability or ethics. Exactly- lots of gaps in the measurement system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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