What did so many of the draft experts miss about Allen?

[mannc]

Maybe we should ask “What did so many of the draft experts see in Sam Darnold?”  Or “Why did the Giants draft a RB?”

[CapeBreton]

 Best line ever from his pro day video:

 

”When you see him live, it is like scouting narcotics.”

 

It’s not hard to see that at the combine and pro day that he has some ridiculous talent. Anyone that really hated on him was just looking at the numbers which were not great in college. Props to the Bills for swinging for the fences and nailing the pick.

[Billsatlastin2018]

15 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

What they missed is the same thing that I missed in my first go-around scouting him: he didn’t have accuracy problems. The ball goes where he wants it to go—provided he doesn’t rush his process and keeps his lower body balance consistent.

 

Once I noticed that, it became a question of whether the kid wants to be great badly enough to build the kind of mechanical consistency it takes to rid himself of erratic throws, and whether he possessed the ability to process well enough for the game to slow down. I gave him the benefit of the doubt there...

Believe, that is it! The reviews featured 3 critical negative words: inaccurate, Inexperienced and raw. Those outweighed the positives of: arm strength, size and desire. 
 

Should they have? The quest for the Holy Grail Franchise QB is an in exact science and most certainly, in his first 2 seasons, the lack of surrounding talent, was underwhelming to say the least. It was difficult to figure out, is he inaccurate, because of the stiffs he’s throwing to and the fact that he’s running for his life so often or is it an innate lack of his own talents and abilities? The truth is probably a hybrid of a sub Offensive team and the Coaching desire to somewhat restrain him from doing crazy things.
 

Allen still has the crazy gene in him- to make spectacular plays or make a profound embarrassing disaster. But now, he has so much help and has gained so much knowledge, that he no longer has to do foolish things! e.g. Where is the line on that v Rams pirouette play for the first down near the Goal line, between calculated brilliant timing v.s. being smashed and possibly hurt from behind?
 

Still developing, but now at a high level of competence! 

Edited October 1, 2020 by Billsatlastin2018

[billieve420]

It is hard to determine drive and motivation. Allen was raw piece of clay who wasn't seasoned but was willing to learn and accept being taught. Through his hard work he was able to do something where a lot of people would have failed so the odds were against him coming into the league. Normally when you come out of college you are expected to be a polished product especially if you are drafted in the first round. Kudos to Beane and McDermott for developing a plan and putting a good support system around him but a lot of the credit goes to Allen for taking it upon himself to work on his game.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 hours ago, The Virginian said:

Desire, heart, grit, and toughness.  Four elements that the analytic guys can't measure.  Combine that with his intelligence, humility, and ability to lead his teammates and you've got yourself a hell of a player and human being.  We call it Cowboy Tough in Wyoming and JA has no shortage of Cowboy Toughness.  He's also competitive as hell.  Tell him he can't do something and he'll plow through brick walls to prove you wrong. So the analytic boys be dammed.  Ignore the haters and their stats. Just enjoy the ride.  Someday, in the not too distant future,  I predict Josh will lead the Bills to the Super Bowl and the Lombardi Trophy.

 

"When you say that, SMILE" - The Virginian

[Hapless Bills Fan]

21 minutes ago, CapeBreton said:

 Best line ever from his pro day video:

”When you see him live, it is like scouting narcotics.”

 

Who said that?  I missed it.

 

Someone said that Allen was kind of the test case for the validity of old-fashioned eyeballs and shoe soles scouting over modern analytics.  Some truth in that.

 

Cris Collinsworth who as an owner of PFF has "bought into" their stuff thus was down on Allen, said that he never understood why the Bills liked Allen until he met him in person before the Steelers game and saw how he lit up the room and the energy he had.  Then you could tell his firm conviction that the Bills were nuts was actually shaken.  Not gone, but  moved to a pile labeled "further review required".

 

 

 

[corta765]

So I was not a Josh Allen fan and while he was a physical freak, by traditional numbers used to judge a QB he fell well short and his play against big opponents was not good. Typically with guys from smaller or unknown places you can see the reasons for the pick i.e Big Ben or Carson Wentz, Allen just struck me as a guy who physically was gifted but lacked the actual traits to do it. These were the general concerns that those analysts who were anti Allen had and why they didn't buy it. If I am not mistaken only Matt Stafford has succeed in some fashion despite in a college a completion % that was sub 60%. So when you know that picking a QB in the 1st round is less then a 50% success rate as is, adding in the rest of that to the puzzle seemed like a really bad idea.

 

But I will say after we drafted him I read things saying that Allen's accuracy issues were overblown and his issues was not so much placing passes in the right area the way EJ struggled, but if he threw 5 passes three would be dead on, one would be iffy, and one would be wayy off. That matters a lot to me and changed my mind and once he got going in 2018 you could see that as the case. Now that didn't guarantee Josh would succeed and he deserves enormous credit for working his butt off to improve and the Bills do for bringing a QB along about as well as you could. But if you actually dove into the numbers accuracy wise it was overblown a bunch from the quality of the talent on his team to the fact he didn't get many easy check down throws.

[Gordio]

One thing did concern me with Rosen.  I remember his last year at UCLA, opening weekend they were playing Texas A&M at the Rose Bowl.  A&M was up huge & Rosen lead the Bruins back to a monumental comeback.  He was terrific in the second half.  When he threw the winning TD pass with about 40 seconds left, the place was going wild, Gus Johnson was the play by play guy and he was gushing about Rosen, while the rest of the team was celebrating Rosen kind of celebrated by himself, jumping up in the air towards the sideline but none of his teammates were mobbing him.  I got blasted by a few posters when I brought it up at the time, but I think it was very telling.  Rosen is a me guy and not a leader of men and not very liked by his teammates.

[Mikey152]

People that didn’t like Josh Allen scouted him with stats.  
 

But all it really takes is to really watch him. Even in college, you could see he was not inaccurate...he was inconsistent.  He’s a natural athlete and a natural thrower of the football who just needed some coaching up on his mechanics, mostly from the waist down.

 

When he is right, he has always been extremely accurate.  Like, one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the nfl accurate. To all levels of the field.  That’s what people miss when they only choose to look at the numbers or his bloopers and why they underrated his potential for improvement 

[Freddie's Dead]

Simple.  Character and heart cannot be measured at the combine.  Josh Allen has both in spades.  He also has big *****in' cantaloupes.

[WideNine]

4 hours ago, Just Joshin' said:

The case study is on why Allen is successful and Rosen is not.

 

IMO it comes down to what is hard to manage: attitude, coach ability, leadership and desire.  Allen is rich in these qualities while Rosen is bankrupt.

 

Phil Simms had an interesting take on Rosen pre-draft. Said he did not move enough, did not sense pressure in the pocket and move to create time and throwing lanes. He did not say that he could not learn these things, but that it was not part of his toolbox coming in and that successful QBs all had this ability.

 

He said that Allen had this ability and although Rosen may have a fast start, there was a good chance that Allen would overtake him performance-wise. I am paraphrasing, but you get the gist.

 

I also thought Rosen was more polished as a passer, but a bit of a statue with an exaggerated throwing motion... thought he would be a sack magnet and he was not built to take a lot of hits. I did not think he would flame out in Arizona as quickly as he did, but thought he would get pummeled and injured.

 

 

 

[WideNine]

4 hours ago, mannc said:

Maybe we should ask “What did so many of the draft experts see in Sam Darnold?”  Or “Why did the Giants draft a RB?”

 

I think Darnold has flashed some elite ability - especially his first year. Belichick made him see ghosts, but Allen fared only marginally better against the defensive goat.

 

If Darnold continues to regress that makes two QBs under Gase's tutelage that have regressed when you look how Tannehill is doing in a system that emphasizes what he does well as a QB. It starts with raw skill and there are plenty of measurables for those, then I believe a player has to be in the right situation to grow and mold those skills.

 

Allen once reminded reporters "I am in NY". I am not certain Allen has the progress he has made if he ended up with that NJ team, with organizational turmoil, under Gase, subjected to brutal NYC media and scrutiny. He is where he needed to be, and we are fortunate that McBeane saw the skill and was willing to gradually build a supporting cast, emphasizing organizational continuity and supportive mentoring that provided the fertile ground for him to begin to realize his potential.

 

Of course Allen had to put in the work and show progress too.

 

 

 

[DCofNC]

I don’t think teams necessarily missed anything with Allen, the question wasn’t, “can this guy be great?” It was, “ can he overcome everything to be great?”.  With more experience comes a better judgement on the talent and a “safer pick, to me, that’s why he “fell”.

[Buffalo716]

5 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

It wasn't shown as consistently in college, for whatever reason.  And he's been better in the PROS is what I am getting at. As a rookie he put up the best rushing season since Mike Vick, until Jackson had his season last year. Nobody saw that coming.

 

 

 

 

He average over 100 yd per game at the juco level. Wyoming wanted to have a quarterback for 2 years not kill him

 

It was clear to me he would be a massive running threat

8 hours ago, cage said:

 

This sums it up best.  The only thing I can add is that many people don't think that a QB can improve his accuracy once they get past college and into the pros.  It is what it is, in their minds.  We've said it on this forum over and over again regarding EJ Manuel.  He was an inaccurate passer and it will never improve.  That's baked into how people think about the position in the same way that your 40 time affects WR/CBs.  And there was plenty of video example to reenforce that point-of-view.

Precision is definitely something that you can work on and get better with. They have hundreds of drills, with footwork and body mechanics, and muscle memory makes a huge difference

 

You can't just get a howitzer like Josh Allen

[umangatan]

The thing people missed was that he was behind Darnold, Baker, and Rosen by about 10,000 reps (I beleieve it was Joe Marino who said this during the draft process) coming out of college and was therefore pure, raw talent. That allowed him to learn under the tutelage of NFL caliber coaches rather than having to forget learned bad habits in college and relearn good habits from NFL coaches. NFL coaches are far superior to college coaches that's why they are at the top of the profession and earn more in both money and respect than their college counterparts.

Edited October 1, 2020 by umang_a_desai

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

6 hours ago, Gordio said:

I watched Allen a few times in college and never came away really impressed especially when he would play upper tier opponents like Iowa opening day 2017.  It wasn't pretty.  What kind of changed my thought process about Allen was I was out drinking with my boss around Christmas time and his son & friend came up to meet us.  His friend went to Wyoming.  he told me "don't read too much into Allen's stats, he has no talent around him & throwing to a bunch of walk on receivers."  I started changing my tune about him.  I knew his tangibles were off the chart compared to the other QB's coming out that year.  With that being said, I would of took Rosen.  Glad I was wrong.  

 

Ah yes, the same Iowa game where CJ Johnson dropped an easy bomb in the endzone.  Wasn't Allen's best game for sure, but the talent around him in 2017 compared to 2016 was like going from a Mercedes to a Ford Pinto.   Wyoming lost C (Redskins), WR (Bears), WR (Saints), TE (Patriots) and RB (Bengals) after the 2016 season.    The 2017 squad was bad yet he still managed to get them to a bowl game and win.

Edited October 1, 2020 by Lieutenant Aldo Raine

[TigerJ]

20 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

What people missed is what people miss about all great athletes

 

Their desire to win and improve at all costs

Unfortunately, that can't be easily measured, especially today when prospects hire people to coach them on how to answer questions and how to act in interviews.  That is of course why people are always missing it in other athletes.

[Buffalo716]

8 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

Unfortunately, that can't be easily measured, especially today when prospects hire people to coach them on how to answer questions and how to act in interviews.  That is of course why people are always missing it in other athletes.

Very true

 

Thankfully I don't think Josh was coached up too much on how to give fake interview answers

 

I think he's very straightforward

[todd]

They assessed the tape, and not the total person. 

[Lurker]

21 hours ago, NewEra said:

His heart

 

Yes, yes, yes.

 

The success or failure of the draft--particularly among high picks, where teams get intoxicated by potential--always seems to hinge on this aspect, which is so hard to judge from looking at tape, measurements, analytics, etc.   

 

Josh's progress has taken a village of coaches, teammates, family and who knows how many other people.   But at its core has been his dedication to putting in the hard work necessary to transform himself.   And then never be satisfied with were he's at.   Or letting obstacles get in his way.    Or being reluctant to reach out to others for help.    And on and on.

 

You see this same quality in so many great players.    And the lack of it in so many, many more, who threw away their gifts (Marcell Dareus, Mike Williams, John McCargo, et al)...