whatdrought Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 26 minutes ago, Augie said: That is certainly been true. I think this is a VERY important question: How much did the landing spot make a difference? Arizona, Cleveland and the Jets were absolute dumpster fires. Rosen didn't get much better in Miami. Josh got a stable organization on the rise with good coaching. I’m NOT making a statement, I’m asking a question. What do you think? What would Josh look like today if he was a Brown or a Jet? . It’s always chicken egg... rookie QB comes in and is a stud he elevates the team and people aren’t talking about how trash they are. I don’t like how much the “it’s his surroundings” argument is used about Darnold (and Rosen). At some point you’re either good or you’re not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Batman1876 said: I've been reading a lot of pre draft analysis this week and realized that Allen has already proven them wrong, regardless of what happens from here. Thigs like his ceiling is Ryan Mallet, the next Jake Locker or Kyle Boller, I'd rather have Tyrod as my starter for the next 4 years, He wont be ready to start for 3 or 4 years if ever, Rosen will have a far better career than Allen. All of these are already wrong. The question it's raised for me is what did all these experts fail to notice about Josh Allen? The Bills took him because they saw those takes were wrong, what did they see? They didn't miss anything. And I think you're mis-stating what was said about him. That he had a good chance of being the next Locker or Boller? Fair enough. That his ceiling was Mallett? Please. Maybe a guy here or there blew it this badly but the consensus knew that his ceiling was very very high indeed, but questioned the likelihood of reaching that ceiling. He was generally considered a first-rounder even though he was also thought to require two years of development, though some said even more. Guys who need development are less valued, and for good reason. Teams would rather have a guy who will be ready quicker, and it is correctly understood development is hard. Relatively fewer developmental guys become good than guys who require less development. And more, a developmental guy is far more dependent on having an excellent environment. The situation has to be excellent. Allen on the Jets might well have not succeeded. More, there's another problem with development guys, which is that even in good circumstances, plenty of them can't develop. Changing mechanics is hard. Some guys prove unable to make those changes. And there's no way to accurately predict which guys can change and which can't. They actually nailed the Josh Allen evaluation. They said he was a hard worker and a great kid, and they were right. Without that and the terrific environment the Bills provided, he wouldn't have become what he has. There were an awful lot even a fair amount of Cam Newton comps, which appear to have been exactly what this group saw. Edited October 1, 2020 by Thurman#1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMF2006 Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Batman1876 said: I've been reading a lot of pre draft analysis this week and realized that Allen has already proven them wrong, regardless of what happens from here. Thigs like his ceiling is Ryan Mallet, the next Jake Locker or Kyle Boller, I'd rather have Tyrod as my starter for the next 4 years, He wont be ready to start for 3 or 4 years if ever, Rosen will have a far better career than Allen. All of these are already wrong. The question it's raised for me is what did all these experts fail to notice about Josh Allen? The Bills took him because they saw those takes were wrong, what did they see? Intangibles plain and simple. JA has the will and the drive to be the best he can be. You can't teach heart and desire and with his raw athletic ability he is the perfect clay to be molded into the prototype QB of the future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rk_Bills86 Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 I'm going to make a statement that many people probably aren't going to like. Draft Experts did not get Allen wrong. He was simply on of the few QBs that has actually made progress towards his ceiling when starting from what would be considered a low floor. This is a combination of many things - including Allen himself, but lets not sit here and ignore the fact that the organization has done literally everything in it's power to build around him to aid his improvement. New OL - far better than what we had with TT and JA's first year The Right OC - that uses an absolute TON of various looks, packages, and schemes and is just now able to scheme per opponent New Weapons - based on what he needs and how the NFL is trending If you don't believe me - We only need to look in our own division and see a player that had a much higher floor although lower end ceiling in Sam Darnold where he is dealing with: Just now getting a possibly good OL (year three and they are just/still addressing this) The OC/HC that is lauded as a QB guru is a sham His best current weapon is a very very old Chris Hogan (yeah yeah I know - Injures - but our depth at all the skill positions is far better) They weren't wrong - they nailed everything he'd need to work on. Josh Allen simply worked to improve while his organization did the same. This is not always the case and it's why 99% of project QBs go nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuvian Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 they're called intangibles for a reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Protocal69 Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 I think one thing that Allen does not get remotely the credit he deserves is for his intelligence. Some people just think Allen is just a dumb jock with a strong arm but that is the furthest thing from the truth. Remember his Wonderlic score was a 37/50 coming out of school. I would imagine this helps when it comes down to learning new things like skill and playbooks and concepts. Allen probably has the highest combination of Wonderlic score and Arm strength in NFL history Allen also does not get enough credit for being able to read defenses and is getting better all the time. Guys like Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield are still after year 3 not seeing backside defenders and throwing picks. When you combine his intelligence this his heart and coachability that is a scary thing and the league might have to watch out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnNord Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 The issue is EVERYONE thinks they can predict success in the NFL. When the truth is - it’s a big crapshoot. There are so many factors that result in the success or failure of a draft pick. As you’ve seen in Moneyball there’s a natural tension between the analytics and old-school scouting crowd over whose method is best. Stats and data vs. measurables and intangibles. With the analytics crew, it’s the classic case of data rich, insight poor. They wanted to be the smartest guys in the room. I believe they tried to project Josh using the same data for other top QB’s without considering the context or understanding how pros develop a prospect. That’s why his metrics rated so poorly compared to the other top guys. So hearing that a prospect that they rated so low, mentioned as a candidate for the top pick, just didn’t compute (pun intended!) As a result they really began to dig their heels and double down on their numbers which said that the odds are unlikely Josh will be a good pro. This led to many snarky tweets to essentially say “see we told you so, he’s really bad.” IMO it goes back to proving that their method is the best. Some of the skepticism on Allen is actually fair based on his less than impressive college numbers. But the bleak projections, that people like Sam Monson made, are just ignorant. It shows he has no idea about the nuance involved with developing a prospect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Puckman5 Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 It's difficult to quantify potential and assess what a player that's rough around the edges will do to reach it once he starts getting paid. He wasn't a great passer coming out of college, so what do you look for: Flashes of great passing Athleticism Brains Leadership Competitiveness. Work ethic Coachability Then you place the bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnNord Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 9 minutes ago, Rk_Bills86 said: I'm going to make a statement that many people probably aren't going to like. Draft Experts did not get Allen wrong. He was simply on of the few QBs that has actually made progress towards his ceiling when starting from what would be considered a low floor. This is a combination of many things - including Allen himself, but lets not sit here and ignore the fact that the organization has done literally everything in it's power to build around him to aid his improvement. New OL - far better than what we had with TT and JA's first year The Right OC - that uses an absolute TON of various looks, packages, and schemes and is just now able to scheme per opponent New Weapons - based on what he needs and how the NFL is trending If you don't believe me - We only need to look in our own division and see a player that had a much higher floor although lower end ceiling in Sam Darnold where he is dealing with: Just now getting a possibly good OL (year three and they are just/still addressing this) The OC/HC that is lauded as a QB guru is a sham His best current weapon is a very very old Chris Hogan (yeah yeah I know - Injures - but our depth at all the skill positions is far better) They weren't wrong - they nailed everything he'd need to work on. Josh Allen simply worked to improve while his organization did the same. This is not always the case and it's why 99% of project QBs go nowhere. To an extent you are right and the analogy between Allen and Darnold is spot on. But IMO where the analytics crowd was wrong was their projections of Josh. Sam Monson claimed Josh would never be a better QB than Baker Mayfield. Also claimed that Josh would never complete higher than 58% of his passes and would need short dump off to do so. To me, it shows a lack of understand in the role that the organization and coaching plays in the development of a prospect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 52 minutes ago, Pokebball said: The real story around the draft and Josh is, who tossed out the tweets a day or two prior to the draft, suggesting Josh was racist. And how did that impact and influence who drafted him. If at all. The rumor is that it was the Cardinals who leaked those tweets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 History was against him. Prospects with his skills went much later and did much less. Even against 2nd rate competition his numbers weren't great. If he had a Wentz or McNair final year people might have bought in more. Basically he was favre like 30 years later, when spread system guys are putting up 50 TDs. Hard to project. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlgarsh Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 Mel Kiper was pretty much the only guy who believed in Allen. He and McShay got into it a couple times live about it, even after Josh’s rookie year. Mel said Allen would be the best QB in the AFC East in the next 5 years and McShay laughed at him and said it was Darnold. Then Mel went off on him. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thronethinker Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 (edited) It isn't about Allen, its about their ability to say they were right and get likes or shares. That is all it is now, looks and likes, but not having to be right. They were wrong and it didnt generate any views or likes. They rode the wrong train the last 2 years defending their opinions while hoping it would generate more likes and followers. It hasn’t worked out that way. Welcome to the world of where it doesn’t matter what you are capable of, only what someone else has a social response to. Edited October 1, 2020 by thronethinker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 23 minutes ago, K-9 said: The rumor is that it was the Cardinals who leaked those tweets. I also heard that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Batman1876 said: I'd rather have Tyrod as my starter for the next 4 years You must have been reading TSW! As others have pointed out, the Bills have done exactly what you are supposed to do when you spend big capital on a new QB. Priority #1: Protect him with an OL (sign big FA Morse, draft Ford) so he doesn't end up like Andrew Luck. Priority #2: Get him some weapons (sign vets Brown/Beasley, big trade for Diggs when possible, draft RBs and WRs) Jets tried to do #2 first by signing Bell, but they failed to understand he was largely a product of Pittsburgh's system and OL so they wasted a ton of cap space on him. They still haven't figured out the OL. Edited October 1, 2020 by KD in CA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 1 hour ago, BringBackFergy said: One word: He has a ***** huuuge heart. I think that's 6 words? I also think you're on to something. Buddy Nix graded Russell Wilson in the 4th round. He commented that you can't measure heart, but all the measurables put him there so that's where he stayed, lucky for the Seasnakes who slithered up to the podium up in the 3rd and drafted Wilson just a few players after we took....TJ Graham (yes, that one does still eat at me, why do you ask?) Once they assessed that a baseline level of skill and smarts were there, I think Beane and Co. set out to measure heart. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 (edited) Let’s not forget THE mistake he made at 16? https://www.si.com/.amp/nfl/2018/04/26/nfl-draft-josh-allen-apologizes-tweets He apologized and Beane and McD saw the truth of it Edited October 1, 2020 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 35 minutes ago, K-9 said: The rumor is that it was the Cardinals who leaked those tweets. Oh, IS it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob in STL Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 Scouts can’t always measure: Heart. Intelligence. Willingness to work hard. Willingness to learn. He has all of that. He had the ability and courage to gain acceptance first, and then lay it out there and lead by example. The people around him trust him and he makes them better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullBuchanan Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 (edited) I'm not sure they missed anything. You had a kid that never had sustained success in college with a 56% completion percentage in college. There are a very small number of successful NFL QBs with numbers that low that went on to have NFL Success (Montana, Favre, Moon, Vick) If you look at a large sampling of NFL QB college stats, you'll find that accuracy for QBs who were significantly under 60% in college typically improves less than 3 points if at all, over their pro career. Brees is a notable exception, but he was already considered accurate (60%+). Montana is one that stands out as making a massive leap from 52% in college to 63% over a pro career. I don't know enough about his collegiate play to know if he was considered to have accuracy issues in college. If the Josh Allen we're seeing this year is the Josh Allen going forward, he'll have made the kind of leap that only Joe Montana ever did. Josh still got drafted top 10, while Montana waited until the 3rd round. The last two years he was statistically in the bottom 3rd of the league. 2020's Josh Allen is a kid who looks like he finally put it all together. Edited October 1, 2020 by BullBuchanan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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