The End of the Lamar Jackson Era

[starrymessenger]

I think everyone agrees Lamar has not developed as a passer. As I said earlier he showed promise running Pertino's offence at Louisville, which is a complex playbook with NFL concepts. There is plenty of college tape showing Lamar executing efficiently from the pocket. Just idle speculation but I wonder whether the Ravens braintrust concluded that he in fact couldn't be successfully be developed as a more conventional pro QB or they just decided to go for broke with his existing unique skillset and hope for the best. If the former then maybe his draft spot was about right though at the time I felt he was undervalued and a real bargain. If the latter then I don't think the Ravens have done him any favours because it's too late now. That train has left the station. He will never be different or better than he is now, what you see is what you get,  and in crunch time that is unlikely to be good enuf IMO. Scheme to take away the run and the middle of the field and Ravens are probably toast. Good Ds and good DCs can do that. The Bills can do that.

 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

And as I said ONCE his legs are gone, He will no longer be a QB in this league.  That is the reality.

 

For sure. If he just has to stand in the pocket and throw he is a backup level player. But he should have plenty of years left being able to run.

[Figster]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

 

And as I said ONCE his legs are gone, He will no longer be a QB in this league.  That is the reality.

Lamar Jackson will never lose his elusivness or accuracy throwing on the run IMO. Extending plays will always be a big part of his game. As a pocket QB Jackson will improve over time IMO.

 

That is the reality...

[JohnNord]

Not sure about you... but I don’t really want to ply Baltimore.  The running game and explosiveness of Jackson were on display last night big time and they looked dangerous

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, Figster said:

Lamar Jackson will never lose his elusivness or accuracy throwing on the run IMO. Extending plays will always be a big part of his game. As a pocket QB Jackson will improve over time IMO.

 

That is the reality...

Pop an Achilles watch how fast those legs go away

[JohnNord]

Just now, Figster said:

Lamar Jackson will never lose his elusivness or accuracy throwing on the run IMO. Extending plays will always be a big part of his game. As a pocket QB Jackson will improve over time IMO.

 

That is the reality...

Agreed to an extent.  I don’t see Lamar being the same player five years from now.  He’ll need to evolve as a passer but if we’ve learned anything Josh, that’s something that isn’t impossible 

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, JohnNord said:

Not sure about you... but I don’t really want to ply Baltimore.  The running game and explosiveness of Jackson were on display last night big time and they looked dangerous

I would rather play Baltimore than Fins.  in WC weekend

[Hapless Bills Fan]

37 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

Look at total yards, total TDs and wins (Yes, I count it as a QB stat) over the last two years and tell me he isnt a top ten player at his position.   He is 27-7 with a very similar team that Joe Flacco had at 13-12.    Maybe he isnt a top ten passer in the league, but he is for sure a top ten player at his position, because last time I looked quarterbacks are allowed to run as well. 

 

It's really not exactly a similar team, North.  We had a Ravens fan here before our game last season who gave a great breakdown of the changes and additions, including FA signings and trade additions.  The Ravens when they drafted Lamar, deliberately set out to craft an offense around him. 

 

They already had a good defense, but they kept up adding to it to improve it as well.

 

So you can count wins as a QB stat if you want, but recognize most people regard them as a team stat for a reason.

 

Certainly a QB's total offensive productivity matter, so yards and total TDs ought to count.  Have you calculated the "total yards" "total scores" thing for offensive productivity across the league?  Is there a stat somewhere that calculates it that way?  We have a guy here who does a QB ranking that includes total yards and total TDs.  Do I remember correctly that it's @BuffaloHokie13?  You still doing that thing, bro?

 

My impression is that Jackson's total productivity has fallen off a fair bit from his stellar MVP season last year, but I could be out of touch.  But we have to look at those parameters for everyone, not just Jackson.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Figster said:

Lamar Jackson will never lose his elusivness or accuracy throwing on the run IMO. Extending plays will always be a big part of his game. As a pocket QB Jackson will improve over time IMO.

 

That is the reality...

I am not convinced he WILL improve, but I think he certainly COULD if the Ravens start thinking long-term. The way they've used him thus far is borderline criminal imo...basically sacrificing his long-term viability as an NFL starter for a bunch of regular season wins. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

Pop an Achilles watch how fast those legs go away

 

I mean, Avert, that's true of every player, correct?

[Figster]

Just now, JohnNord said:

Not sure about you... but I don’t really want to ply Baltimore.  The running game and explosiveness of Jackson were on display last night big time and they looked dangerous

Very dangerous team

 

Nobody wants to face them in the playoffs IMO.

 

My most feared teams in the AFC are K C, Titans and Ravens in that order.

[thenorthremembers]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It's really not exactly a similar team, North.  We had a Ravens fan here before our game last season who gave a great breakdown of the changes and additions, including FA signings and trade additions.  The Ravens when they drafted Lamar, deliberately set out to craft an offense around him. 

 

They already had a good defense, but they kept up adding to it to improve it as well.

 

So you can count wins as a QB stat if you want, but recognize most people regard them as a team stat for a reason.

 

Certainly a QB's total offensive productivity matter, so yards and total TDs ought to count.  Have you calculated the "total yards" "total scores" thing for offensive productivity across the league?  Is there a stat somewhere that calculates it that way?  We have a guy here who does a QB ranking that includes total yards and total TDs.  Do I remember correctly that it's @BuffaloHokie13?  You still doing that thing, bro?

 

My impression is that Jackson's total productivity has fallen off a fair bit from his stellar MVP season last year, but I could be out of touch.  But we have to look at those parameters for everyone, not just Jackson.

I am going to admit a sad truth about my life.  I keep an excel sheet that I update every week that ranks QBs by win pct, availability, total yards, total tds, total turnovers, comp%, Y/A, and Playoff win pct.

 

His passing production has for sure fallen off a bit, something like 16 yards a game.  His rushing productivity has also fallen off a bit too.  However, I keep totals through three years, a statistically relevant sample size based on common statistical analysis.    This helps to weed out one year wonders.   Given that criteria he is a top ten player at his position.  

[MAJBobby]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I mean, Avert, that's true of every player, correct?

Qbs can play without elite Running ability, happens all over the league if they can play from the pocket.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, MAJBobby said:

Qbs can play without elite Running ability, happens all over the league if they can play from the pocket.

 

That's true, but in the modern generation of QB a certain degree of mobility seems required for the job.  Even the aging stars like Brees and Rodgers are noted for their "teflon" ability to just move around a bit and make guys miss or find throwing lanes and Rodgers, of course, still has wheels. 

 

4 of the current top 5 passing QB are highly mobile (Mahomes, Watson, Wilson, Rodgers); 5 of the top 10 which would include our own Josh Allen.  Ryan and Goff aren't dual-threat QB but I would argue that mobility to extend plays is a big part of their games. 

 

So sure, they're playing without elite running ability but the loss of mobility attendant on a severe injury like an Achilles or knee injury would still be devastating.

 

I think there's a reason why the conventional pocket passer seems to be less valued and harder to develop in the NFL.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Cramps?   really? 

 

11 of 17 for  63 passing yards

 

Did Tyrod suit up for him after his cramps?

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

I am going to admit a sad truth about my life.  I keep an excel sheet that I update every week that ranks QBs by win pct, availability, total yards, total tds, total turnovers, comp%, Y/A, and Playoff win pct.

 

His passing production has for sure fallen off a bit, something like 16 yards a game.  His rushing productivity has also fallen off a bit too.  However, I keep totals through three years, a statistically relevant sample size based on common statistical analysis.    This helps to weed out one year wonders.   Given that criteria he is a top ten player at his position.  

 

Cool, care to share it or a couple shots of it?  Win pct, playoff win pct, and availability I view as factors that go far beyond the QB's ability to control, but the rest are great stats highly correlated to team winning.

[JohnNord]

26 minutes ago, Figster said:

Very dangerous team

 

Nobody wants to face them in the playoffs IMO.

 

My most feared teams in the AFC are K C, Titans and Ravens in that order.

There is a blueprint to beat Baltimore.  The Bills and Titans wrote it last season and several teams duplicated it this year.  You shut down the run game, try to keep Lamar in the pocket and take away the middle of the field.

 

Problem is that easier said that done.  Your ends really need to contain Lamar and you saw two great DE’s last night continually fail to do that.  

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That's true, but in the modern generation of QB a certain degree of mobility seems required for the job.  Even the aging stars like Brees and Rodgers are noted for their "teflon" ability to just move around a bit and make guys miss or find throwing lanes and Rodgers, of course, still has wheels. 

 

4 of the current top 5 passing QB are highly mobile (Mahomes, Watson, Wilson, Rodgers); 5 of the top 10 which would include our own Josh Allen.  Ryan and Goff aren't dual-threat QB but I would argue that mobility to extend plays is a big part of their games. 

 

So sure, they're playing without elite running ability but the loss of mobility attendant on a severe injury like an Achilles or knee injury would still be devastating.

 

I think there's a reason why the conventional pocket passer seems to be less valued and harder to develop in the NFL.

 

Agree with this - except I think Allen belongs in that 5 with the other 4 you mentioned. Who was your 5th guy? Brees?

 

And mobility is definitely big for Goff he rolls out a lot and is good doing it even if he is no real threat to take off and run. As you say, it was for Ryan too.... and was for Big Ben earlier in his career. Both have only become more statuesque towards the end.

 

EDIT: Sorry realised you just meant top 5 passing leaders by yards for 2020. Got ya. I think that 4 you mentioned plus Allen are the best 5 QBs in the league period at this stage was what I was trying to say. But yea, Ryan is above Josh in yards.

Edited December 15, 2020 by GunnerBill

[thenorthremembers]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Cool, care to share it or a couple shots of it?  Win pct, playoff win pct, and availability I view as factors that go far beyond the QB's ability to control, but the rest are great stats highly correlated to team winning.

Yeah for sure.  I keep it for QBs, Coaches, and Team Rankings over three years.   I cant say its bullet proof as I keep it for reference only.  But it tends to help me keep a level head. 

 

If you want to message me your e-mail or some other way you prefer to receive it I'd be glad to send it over.

[Starr Almighty]

13 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

There is a blueprint to beat Baltimore.  The Bills and Titans wrote it last season and several teams duplicated it this year.  You shut down the run game, try to keep Lamar in the pocket and take away the middle of the field.

 

Problem is that easier said that done.  Your ends really need to contain Lamar and you saw two great DE’s last night continually fail to do that.  

The bills made the blueprint the titans followed their lead