The End of the Lamar Jackson Era

[BITE ME]

8 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

His 3 TD’s. His 4th down TD pass to tie the game. His GW drive to get the FG. His ridiculous runs. All against a good defense in a must-win game. 
 

He has regressed as a passer this year. But because of his legs, he is super dangerous and it opens up guys in the passing game at times. 
 

I am just not understanding the Lamar hate. 
 

 

 

Hate?  Try reality.  He is not a good quarterback.  Every good quarterback can throw the ball.  Lamar was easy to figure out. It only took the NFL defensive coordinators a season. He now looks like a middle of the road quarterback that will never take his team very far.  Nothing wrong with that. The NFL is filled with guys like him.

 

You can't go very far in the NFL if you can't throw, not when Mahomes, Rogers, and Allen are playing.  You might win a playoff game ( he is 0-2 in the playoffs), but you aren't winning 3 or 4 playoff games needed to win a Super Bowl. It is a throw or die league. That is why receivers make so much more than running backs, and quarterbacks make the big money.

 

 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

16 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't understand why you feel that the Browns have a good defense?   Frankly, they were playing Lamar last night as though they'd never seen him before, instead of like a division rival where they were facing him for the 4th or 5th time. 

 

Earlier in the season the Ravens gashed them for 38.  The Steelers hung up 38 on them also.

 

Maybe they're missing people - who?

 

Last night I thought the Browns D were 15 or 16 on points until I realized I was looking at 12 games vs 13 games and they were actually something like 24.

 

You've been saying this repeatedly in a couple of threads so I'd just like to understand where the "Browns good defense" thing comes from?

 

If it's the Titans, it's true that they contained Travis Henry to 60 yds rushing instead of his ridiculous 118 ypg average.  But they also gave up 4 straight TD in the 3rd and 4th Q, and the Titans finished with 389 yds passing and 3 TD.  Shades of the Bills D against the Rams, which I don't think any of us would call good.  I didn't see the game, but it looks like a story of turnovers.

 

IF the Browns are a good defense, I would have to say this year Joe Wood seems to have misplaced the "book" on how to handle the Ravens, because they can't.  In contrast, Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier wrote the first chapter which the Titans edited when they wrote the book.

 

Now back to the thread, I don't understand the Lamar hate either.  He has enough arm to be dangerous, and if you let him go off-script or get the deep throws or TE throws he likes, he'll burn you with it.  A lot of his passing "regression" is actually OL injuries and illnesses.  I tend to think some of the Lamar dissing arises as an over-reaction to the "MVP" "LJEra" and "he keeps getting better, just put his bust in Canton" hype rather than "he's a very talented dual-threat QB with some gaps in his game which allow good defenses to key on what he does well, and he needed to level up his passing game after last season - he didn't."

maybe I am overstating how good the browns D is. I sort of write off the first ravens and Steelers games, because those spiraled out of control really fast. But as of recent, I view their front 7 as really strong at stopping the run and rushing the passer. I believe the stats bear that out too. 
 

That is what makes last night’s game alarming (from the standpoint of the ravens being a threat)— They just ran all over them. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

They've given up more than 30 points 7 times this year....7!

 

We have 4 and we played the NFC West.  The Browns played the NFC East.

 

I mean, a lot can be folded into whether a defense is good or not.   We have mediocre stats as a D due to several bad games the first half of the season and due to giving up some "game out of reach" scores. 

 

But when our D plays like it pretty much has the last 7 games (since the 2nd half of the Jets game, say), you might get bruises just watching them. 

 

That's NOT the sense I got from watching the Browns last night.

[Shaw66]

15 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't understand why you feel that the Browns have a good defense?   Frankly, they were playing Lamar last night as though they'd never seen him before, instead of like a division rival where they were facing him for the 4th or 5th time. 

 

Earlier in the season the Ravens gashed them for 38.  The Steelers hung up 38 on them also.

 

Maybe they're missing people - who?

 

Last night I thought the Browns D were 15 or 16 on points until I realized I was looking at 12 games vs 13 games and they were actually something like 24.

 

You've been saying this repeatedly in a couple of threads so I'd just like to understand where the "Browns good defense" thing comes from?

 

If it's the Titans, it's true that they contained Travis Henry to 60 yds rushing instead of his ridiculous 118 ypg average.  But they also gave up 4 straight TD in the 3rd and 4th Q, and the Titans finished with 389 yds passing and 3 TD.  Shades of the Bills D against the Rams, which I don't think any of us would call good.  I didn't see the game, but it looks like a story of turnovers.

 

IF the Browns are a good defense, I would have to say this year Joe Wood seems to have misplaced the "book" on how to handle the Ravens, because they can't.  In contrast, Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier wrote the first chapter which the Titans edited when they wrote the book.

 

Now back to the thread, I don't understand the Lamar hate either.  He has enough arm to be dangerous, and if you let him go off-script or get the deep throws or TE throws he likes, he'll burn you with it.  A lot of his passing "regression" is actually OL injuries and illnesses.  I tend to think some of the Lamar dissing arises as an over-reaction to the "MVP" "LJEra" and "he keeps getting better, just put his bust in Canton" hype rather than "he's a very talented dual-threat QB with some gaps in his game which allow good defenses to key on what he does well, and he needed to level up his passing game after last season - he didn't."

Why do people think the Browns have a good defense?  Because that's what the announcers say on TV.  

 

I've been focusing more on what they say during the games, and I feel stupid that I didn't recognize it before.   Everyone's great.  Mayfield's great.  Garrett is great.  Chubb is great.  Hunt is great.  Landry is great.  Their tight end is great.  Their defense is great.  

 

It's not just the Browns; it's everyone.  Jalen Hurts became a great leader, overnight.  

 

Why do they do this?  Because the announcers spend all their time promoting the product they're selling - football.  If they tell us all these teams and players are bad, we believe it and won't watch.   A few weeks ago I stopped listening and just watched the Bears and Vikings.  They were more or less horrible.  But if you listened to the announcers, Dalvin Cook was great and Cousins was great and Trubisky was on the cusp of greatness and on and on.   

 

I was watching last night, and I don't know exactly how it is teams stop Jackson, but I know that the Bills will do a lot better stopping him than the Browns did.   I don't know how to stop Mayfield, but I know the Bills will do a lot better stopping him than the Ravens did.  I mean, there's a reason teams want their QB throwing from the pocket.   Mayfield apparently can't, so every third play he rolls out.  I know it's easier to stop a guy rolling out than stopping a guy who can do it from the pocket.  

 

But don't worry.  They're all great.  

[Ramza86]

If it works it works.

 

I just dont know if its gonna work in the playoffs. 

 

Teams in the playoffs can be good enough to gameplan for that style of QB. 

 

Unless he can throw at a level where he can run comfortably, it wont be easy for him to put a string of consecutive playoff wins 

[Bill from NYC]

24 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

If it's the Titans, it's true that they contained Travis Henry to 60 yds rushing instead of his ridiculous 118 ypg average. 

 

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, FUTURIST said:

 

Hate?  Try reality.  He is not a good quarterback.  Every good quarterback can throw the ball.  Lamar was easy to figure out. It only took the NFL defensive coordinators a season. He now looks like a middle of the road quarterback that will never take his team very far.  Nothing wrong with that. The NFL is filled with guys like him.

 

You can't go very far in the NFL if you can't throw, not when Mahomes, Rogers, and Allen are playing.  You might win a playoff game ( he is 0-2 in the playoffs), but you aren't winning 3 or 4 playoff games needed to win a Super Bowl. It is a throw or die league. That is why receivers make so much more than running backs, and quarterbacks make the big money.

 

You may well be right on the playoffs and that remains to be seen. Until he wins some playoff games it is a fair challenge. But I think Lamar might be a bit of a unicorn in terms of needing to throw the ball. He has won 14 times completing 15 throws or fewer in 45 starts. That is nearly a third of the games he has played. He has done it 3 times in 12 starts this season (and won a 4th completing just 16 passes). I tend to agree it probably puts you at a lower ceiling than a team with a young guy like Mahomes or Allen who can make all the throws. The plan on how to limit Lamar is out there but it is not that easy to execute. He is still going to win a lot of games in my opinion. Might not be enough for a Championship but he is not just the usual low wattage running QB. I suspect Baltimore will be a regular playoff team the next few years with Lamar Jackson at Quarterback.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

maybe I am overstating how good the browns D is. I sort of write off the first ravens and Steelers games, because those spiraled out of control really fast. But as of recent, I view their front 7 as really strong at stopping the run and rushing the passer. I believe the stats bear that out too. 
 

That is what makes last night’s game alarming (from the standpoint of the ravens being a threat)— They just ran all over them. 

 

Maybe you shouldn't write off the first Ravens game.  That's a division rival, the blueprint on how to shut them down was drafted by the Bills and revised and improved by the Titans, and they acted like they'd never thought about it. 

 

In contrast, Mike Tomlin looked over at a division rival and said "I Will Steal Your Cattle and Burn Your Barn" and succeeded.  I don't think you should write that off, y'know? 

 

As a Bills fan, I should be all about D improving as the season goes on though.  The Browns D did really well against the Titans in the first half.  They shut down Henry at the expense of allowing 4 TD in the 2nd half and 369 yds passing.    Other recent games - the Eagles and the Jaguars are kind of a hot mess.  Is there a showcase game that comes to mind?

 

I'm not trying to diminish the Ravens as a threat, when Lamar is "on" and their OL is healthy they are a talented offense, but as far as Lamar Jackson, unless we have injuries McDermott and Frazier still have that blueprint, so I don't understand the "alarm" barring covid or injuries.  We would absolutely need to take the Ravens seriously and bring our A game, but I have no doubt we would do that.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I mean, a lot can be folded into whether a defense is good or not.   We have mediocre stats as a D due to several bad games the first half of the season and due to giving up some "game out of reach" scores. 

 

But when our D plays like it pretty much has the last 7 games (since the 2nd half of the Jets game, say), you might get bruises just watching them. 

 

That's NOT the sense I got from watching the Browns last night.

 

I don't class the Browns defense as good. They are, however, opportunistic. They are still around the top 5 in takeaways and they are 11th I think in sacks. Their defense relies on those impact plays, turnovers and big sacks that put the offense behind the sticks. If they can't generate those then they are pretty easy to move the ball on. They have generally put up good numbers against teams like Houston and Philly who struggle to protect their Quarterbacks.

[BITE ME]

26 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

maybe I am overstating how good the browns D is. I sort of write off the first ravens and Steelers games, because those spiraled out of control really fast. But as of recent, I view their front 7 as really strong at stopping the run and rushing the passer. I believe the stats bear that out too. 
 

That is what makes last night’s game alarming (from the standpoint of the ravens being a threat)— They just ran all over them. 

 

The Browns are not a good football team.  They have given up 368 points.  The Browns are being outscored 368-348 on the year.  Good teams are not being outscored by their opponents going into week 15.  Even with the blowout loss to the Titans, the Bills are outscoring their opponents 359-321.  The Browns have beaten a bunch of bad teams in very close games.  They are a mediocre team that gets a lot of hype off one win over the Titans.  The Ravens are a much better team. If they had a better quarterback they would be fighting for the #1 seed.

Edited December 15, 2020 by FUTURIST

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Why do people think the Browns have a good defense?  Because that's what the announcers say on TV.  

 

I've been focusing more on what they say during the games, and I feel stupid that I didn't recognize it before.   Everyone's great.  Mayfield's great.  Garrett is great.  Chubb is great.  Hunt is great.  Landry is great.  Their tight end is great.  Their defense is great.  

 

It's not just the Browns; it's everyone.  Jalen Hurts became a great leader, overnight.  

 

Why do they do this?  Because the announcers spend all their time promoting the product they're selling - football.  If they tell us all these teams and players are bad, we believe it and won't watch.   A few weeks ago I stopped listening and just watched the Bears and Vikings.  They were more or less horrible.  But if you listened to the announcers, Dalvin Cook was great and Cousins was great and Trubisky was on the cusp of greatness and on and on.   

 

I was watching last night, and I don't know exactly how it is teams stop Jackson, but I know that the Bills will do a lot better stopping him than the Browns did.   I don't know how to stop Mayfield, but I know the Bills will do a lot better stopping him than the Ravens did.  I mean, there's a reason teams want their QB throwing from the pocket.   Mayfield apparently can't, so every third play he rolls out.  I know it's easier to stop a guy rolling out than stopping a guy who can do it from the pocket.  

 

But don't worry.  They're all great.  

 

Good points. 

 

I typically shut announcers off, in part because they typically annoy me by saying my team isn't great, possibly because we're a small market and logic (no offense @Logic, small l) says they can build more viewership elsewhere because more people.  Which I suppose has some sense to it, as Bills fans are a passionate die-hard bunch who have been watching a bad team for years and will watch all the more religiously when you tell us our team sucks, now that we finally have reason to think it doesn't.  We will watch to shake our fists at you and cuss you for an idiot.

 

Anyway, that would explain why I am frequently puzzled by various hot takes:  I mute announcers.  I even mute Romo more and more as I feel he's being pulled towards the "mean" of pushing a narrative rather than explaining a football game.

 

 

[MAJBobby]

Once Lamars legs are gone he is out of the league.  Such a horrible QB (Even worse than TT)

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Anyway, that would explain why I am frequently puzzled by various hot takes:  I mute announcers.  I even mute Romo more and more as I feel he's being pulled towards the "mean" of pushing a narrative rather than explaining a football game.

 

 

Now we're off the subject, but Romo really is annoying a lot of the time.   He's just a cheerleader, and as the game gets tighter, he gets more tongue tied.   Sometimes when he's supposed to be talking, he actually asks Nantz to take over for him.   

 

But, when Romo is telling us what the quarterback sees, in real time, it's incredible.   The QB is at the line of scrimmage and he's looking at the defense and he KNOWS where the play should go, what the QB should be looking at, and he's telling us.   It's quite good when he does that. 

[GoBills808]

35 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You may well be right on the playoffs and that remains to be seen. Until he wins some playoff games it is a fair challenge. But I think Lamar might be a bit of a unicorn in terms of needing to throw the ball. He has won 14 times completing 15 throws or fewer in 45 starts. That is nearly a third of the games he has played. He has done it 3 times in 12 starts this season (and won a 4th completing just 16 passes). I tend to agree it probably puts you at a lower ceiling than a team with a young guy like Mahomes or Allen who can make all the throws. The plan on how to limit Lamar is out there but it is not that easy to execute. He is still going to win a lot of games in my opinion. Might not be enough for a Championship but he is not just the usual low wattage running QB. I suspect Baltimore will be a regular playoff team the next few years with Lamar Jackson at Quarterback.

It’s an unsustainable formula. Last year the stars aligned for the Ravens, this year is simply an eminently predictable regression to the mean. 
 

Tale as old as time with Roman. Jackson is simply the best of the Kaepernick/Taylor bunch and will in all likelihood follow a similar career trajectory.

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

It’s an unsustainable formula. Last year the stars aligned for the Ravens, this year is simply an eminently predictable regression to the mean. 
 

Tale as old as time with Roman. Jackson is simply the best of the Kaepernick/Taylor bunch and will in all likelihood follow a similar career trajectory.

 

So I don't doubt the regression to the mean. As I said, I expected it. I never thought last year was sustainable for all the reasons that we have spoken about before. But the mean with Lamar is this. Tyrod and Kap were not in his league as runners (though Kap was arguably a better thrower). 

 

I think what we have seen this year from Lamar probably is sustainable. Because of how special he is with his legs I think he can win games consistently completing 15 passes and fewer. He has done that more times than Kap ever did already and in about half the career games. 

 

So the question for me is not whether 2019 Lamar is sustainable. I think it was always pretty clear that it wasn't. The question is whether 2020 Lamar is sustainable. And they are exactly where I said they'd be. Facing a significant regression to the mean in terms of Lamar's passing efficiency and still well on course to have double digit wins in the regular season. I think this is the kind of thing we will see from the Ravens the next few years. I doubt they can win a Championship this way. But I think they can win plenty of football games.

[thenorthremembers]

Whether he runs or throws the ball he is playing Quarterback and winning, alot.  The guy is 27-7 as a starting Quarterback.   Maybe he will regress and start losing, maybe he wont.  But that can be said of any starting QB in the league.   He is, and continues to be a top ten player at his position in the league.

 

Just because it doesnt look like everyone else does it, doesnt mean it isnt working.

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

Whether he runs or throws the ball he is playing Quarterback and winning, alot.  The guy is 27-7 as a starting Quarterback.   Maybe he will regress and start losing, maybe he wont.  But that can be said of any starting QB in the league.   He is, and continues to be a top ten player at his position in the league.

 

Just because it doesnt look like everyone else does it, doesnt mean it isnt working.

How exactly is he a top 10 QB?

[Shaw66]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So I don't doubt the regression to the mean. As I said, I expected it. I never thought last year was sustainable for all the reasons that we have spoken about before. But the mean with Lamar is this. Tyrod and Kap were not in his league as runners (though Kap was arguably a better thrower). 

 

I think what we have seen this year from Lamar probably is sustainable. Because of how special he is with his legs I think he can win games consistently completing 15 passes and fewer. He has done that more times than Kap ever did already and in about half the career games. 

 

So the question for me is not whether 2019 Lamar is sustainable. I think it was always pretty clear that it wasn't. The question is whether 2020 Lamar is sustainable. And they are exactly where I said they'd be. Facing a significant regression to the mean in terms of Lamar's passing efficiency and still well on course to have double digit wins in the regular season. I think this is the kind of thing we will see from the Ravens the next few years. I doubt they can win a Championship this way. But I think they can win plenty of football games.

I think this is generally correct.  I think winning a championship is really difficult, because to do that they'd have to beat four good defenses in a row, and I think their style of play is too one-dimensional to be able to do that.  Their prospects would be better if he learned to be a good (not necessarily great) pocket passer, but I doubt that's going to happen.  There's not much evidence that he's improving in that regard.  For example, some of his deep balls light were downright ugly.  

 

If I'm the coach and GM, however, I'd be moving on from Lamar sooner rather than later.  First, the object is to win the Super Bowl, and if we're correct in what we're saying, he's not a high probability guy to win a Super Bowl.   Second, as we saw last night, it's essentially impossible to have a backup QB, because the offense is designed around a guy who is truly irreplaceable.   Getting RGIII was a good idea, but even he is nothing like the threat that Jackson is.  Barkley can run the Bills offense if Allen goes down; nobody can run the Ravens' offense.  

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Watching the game last night, Lamar gets by passing on a lot of broken plays, blown coverages. 

 

In the telecast they are talking about how the Ravens really need another WR. But when they went to Hollywood Brown, he was having to dive for the ball on the sidelines as balls were sailing over his head ala Robert Woods when he was here. Nothing hits him him stride, except for the last bomb (which also was a blown coverage). 

 

Lamar missed Mark Andrews, missed Willie Snead. 

 

He gets by on scrambling around and floaters on broken coverages. 

 

Edited December 15, 2020 by Straight Hucklebuck

[eball]

15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So I don't doubt the regression to the mean. As I said, I expected it. I never thought last year was sustainable for all the reasons that we have spoken about before. But the mean with Lamar is this. Tyrod and Kap were not in his league as runners (though Kap was arguably a better thrower). 

 

I think what we have seen this year from Lamar probably is sustainable. Because of how special he is with his legs I think he can win games consistently completing 15 passes and fewer. He has done that more times than Kap ever did already and in about half the career games. 

 

So the question for me is not whether 2019 Lamar is sustainable. I think it was always pretty clear that it wasn't. The question is whether 2020 Lamar is sustainable. And they are exactly where I said they'd be. Facing a significant regression to the mean in terms of Lamar's passing efficiency and still well on course to have double digit wins in the regular season. I think this is the kind of thing we will see from the Ravens the next few years. I doubt they can win a Championship this way. But I think they can win plenty of football games.

 

This is pretty spot on.  Lamar is a "winning" QB but he's not a great passing QB, and to reach the ultimate prize (SB) you have to get through at least one or two defenses who will be able to slow that running game down.