WIN THE TOSS AND DEFER, SMART?

[Stroke 17]

 With this Defense I agree that winning the toss and deferring is the right call. I may be wrong on this but without doing a lot of research it seems to me that the Bills did this a lot last year. That being said it also seems to me that the Bills have squandered the first possession of the 2nd half more times than not. When the 2nd half started yesterday I thought to myself that the Bills would do what I remembered from last year with the 2nd half kick, nothing.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Playing the less than stellar Jets this did not matter yesterday but in closer games  against better opponents this possession is critical to the success of this team. I hope this is not a sign of things to come.    Being able to score at the end of the 1st half or holding a lead going in to half and then scoring with the 1st possession of the 2nd half can be a back breaker for an opponent or a boost to them if getting a 3 and out.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Not trying to nit pick a win here but with last years playoff loss still stings. The Bills need to" kick em when they're down." no matter the score or the circumstances.                                                                                                                                 

[fergie's ire]

Agreed that they need to do a better job with the second half kickoff.  As far as deferring, goes, that is something that Belichick really popularized.  The idea is that you can control the clock at the end of the half.  So, for example, if you get the ball with five minutes left in the first, you can intentionally burn enough clock so that you score a touchdown or attempt a field goal with virtually no time left in the half.  Then, you get the ball to start the second.  The idea is that you can have back to back long drives to give a big lead and wear out the defense.....but it doesn't work if the team punts right after getting the ball in the second half.

[Maybe Someday]

Deferring is a great strategy if you prefer to kickoff to start the game because it also allows us to choose the direction we go. 

 

If we choose to kick, they then pick the direction. Deferring our choice to 2nd half forces them to choose to receive (unless they're really dumb) so we then get to pick the direction. 

 

I like the strategy, the offense just need to execute better to start the half. 

 

Another part of that strategy that isn't really a factor this year is the fans are much quieter to start the 2nd half than the 1st and that typically is better for the offense. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

1 minute ago, Maybe Someday said:

Deferring is a great strategy if you prefer to kickoff to start the game because it also allows us to choose the direction we go. 

 

If we choose to kick, they then pick the direction. Deferring our choice to 2nd half forces them to choose to receive (unless they're really dumb) so we then get to pick the direction. 

 

I like the strategy, the offense just need to execute better to start the half. 

 

Another part of that strategy that isn't really a factor this year is the fans are much quieter to start the 2nd half than the 1st and that typically is better for the offense. 

 

Especially correct on your last point.

[BRH]

Wind was an issue yesterday, I believe, so deferring and picking the direction was especially smart.

[nucci]

I like the ball to start the 2nd half

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Belicheat does this almost every game 

 

[NewEra]

Get the ball in the 2nd half should be every teams choice imo. 

[Shaw66]

I know the first half has 30 minutes and the second half has 30 minutes, but all coaches will tell you that the second half is more important than the first half.  

 

Therefore, the extra possession that you get by taking the second half kickoff is more important than having the extra possession in the first half.  

[Big Turk]

38 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I know the first half has 30 minutes and the second half has 30 minutes, but all coaches will tell you that the second half is more important than the first half.  

 

Therefore, the extra possession that you get by taking the second half kickoff is more important than having the extra possession in the first half.  

 

Theoretically the 2nd half kickoff will come after seeing the other team's defensive gameplan for the first half and being able to make adjustments at halftime so it SHOULD be more advantageous to you.

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, matter2003 said:

 

Theoretically the 2nd half kickoff will come after seeing the other team's defensive gameplan for the first half and being able to make adjustments at halftime so it SHOULD be more advantageous to you.

I often quote some football or basketball coach who said something like "The only reason to play the first half is to get to the second half."

 

You can't win the game in first half, but you can lose it.  There are no fourth quarter comebacks in the first half.   Nobody tracks "second quarter comebacks."   

 

Kelly's Bills might have been an exception, because they scored on their opening possession very often.  Teams feared the Bills offense, and it was really discouraging to teams to be down 7-0 after three minutes.   But in most cases, by the third quarter no one remembers how they felt emotionally in the first quarter.  They're just fighting for their lives.   

[MJS]

53 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

Belicheat does this almost every game 

 

Pretty much everybody does.

[BillsFanSD]

I like deferring because I like getting the ball to start the second half, but I seriously doubt it really matters in the long run.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Almost everybody defers but I really don't think it matters one bit.  Honestly the Bills have been terrible on offense to start second halfs so maybe they should just take the ball first if they win the coin toss.  Both teams make adjustments at the half.  

 

Being aggressive at the end of the first half should be the norm.  With the defense the Bills have, they should be trying to score even with little time left.  I would trust my defense to hold even if a late first quarter drive fails and leaves clock for the opponent.  

[Success]

I prefer it, and I was glad they did it yesterday - but there was spirited discussion about it w/ the group I was watching the game with.  

 

But it's like pretty much anything in an NFL game.  If the other team comes out like the Jets and goes 3 & out, it's a a great call. Had they driven for a TD, it would have been a terrible call.

 

 

 

Edited September 14, 2020 by Success

[Tuco]

All the good teams defer, and it makes sense for all the reasons above.

 

The bad teams also defer because they want to be like the good teams. Deferring is a great idea, but if you go on to allow a long TD drive to start the game and then start the 2nd half with a quick 3 and out, you're beating yourself over the head trying to act like a good team. 

 

Should we defer? Of course we should. But I don't know how many times during our 17 year playoff hiatus we did just exactly what I described above, nor am I going to try to look it up. But it happened a lot, especially the 3 and out in the 2nd.

 

Nothing blows your whole game plan, strategy, momentum and juju-mojo like going 3 and out to start the 2nd half. And deferring to have the wind at your back to start the game doesn't work very well if you give up a nine and a half minute touchdown drive to start the game.

[That's No Moon]

3 hours ago, fergie's ire said:

Agreed that they need to do a better job with the second half kickoff.  As far as deferring, goes, that is something that Belichick really popularized.  The idea is that you can control the clock at the end of the half.  So, for example, if you get the ball with five minutes left in the first, you can intentionally burn enough clock so that you score a touchdown or attempt a field goal with virtually no time left in the half.  Then, you get the ball to start the second.  The idea is that you can have back to back long drives to give a big lead and wear out the defense.....but it doesn't work if the team punts right after getting the ball in the second half.

I don't think Belichick made that popular per se. That's been a college football strategy for years. They changed the rules in the NFL to allow you to defer the choice to the 2nd half. It didn't used to be that way. 

[Mango]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I know the first half has 30 minutes and the second half has 30 minutes, but all coaches will tell you that the second half is more important than the first half.  

 

Therefore, the extra possession that you get by taking the second half kickoff is more important than having the extra possession in the first half.  

I tell my athletes something similar, “first half is temporary, second half is permanent”. Should note, I coach a “racing sport” so it is slightly different. 

[MAJBobby]

4 hours ago, Stroke 17 said:

 With this Defense I agree that winning the toss and deferring is the right call. I may be wrong on this but without doing a lot of research it seems to me that the Bills did this a lot last year. That being said it also seems to me that the Bills have squandered the first possession of the 2nd half more times than not. When the 2nd half started yesterday I thought to myself that the Bills would do what I remembered from last year with the 2nd half kick, nothing.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Playing the less than stellar Jets this did not matter yesterday but in closer games  against better opponents this possession is critical to the success of this team. I hope this is not a sign of things to come.    Being able to score at the end of the 1st half or holding a lead going in to half and then scoring with the 1st possession of the 2nd half can be a back breaker for an opponent or a boost to them if getting a 3 and out.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Not trying to nit pick a win here but with last years playoff loss still stings. The Bills need to" kick em when they're down." no matter the score or the circumstances.                                                                                                                                 

 

Not sure what this is trying to say..  But you ALWAYS Defer

[BigDingus]

It makes sense with the defense we have, but yes, our offense not being able to do anything after the 2nd half kickoff doesn't look good.

However...

In all fairness, the Bills had one of the worst success rates on opening drives last year anyway. Our 1st quarter offensive output was really not that great overall, but our opening drives didn't often to lead to TD's either. So even if we elected to receive, it's just as likely we'd end up punting as we do getting the ball first to start the 2nd half.