Tiberius Posted October 13, 2020 Author Share Posted October 13, 2020 Florida: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 50, Trump 47 Biden +3 Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden KAAL-TV/SurveyUSA Biden 47, Trump 40 Biden +7 Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7 Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Biden 51, Trump 41 Biden +10 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7 Michigan: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Biden 48, Trump 40 Biden +8 "The Media" out with more polls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Cook Political Report has 290 ECs at least leaning Dem now: https://cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/2020-09/EC Ratings.092920.2.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted October 13, 2020 Author Share Posted October 13, 2020 The Cook Political Report on Tuesday shifted Senate races in Georgia, Texas and Alaska, all with Republican incumbents, toward Democrats. New SENATE RATINGS changes @CookPolitical #AKSen: Likely R —> Lean R #TXSen: Likely R —> Lean R#GASen special: Lean R —> Toss Uphttps://t.co/IuYAGSW8fn pic.twitter.com/t2n5sjzv0M — Jessica Taylor (@JessicaTaylor) October 13, 2020 ADVERTISEMENT Cook changed its rating for Alaska’s Senate race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.” Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) is seeking reelection against Al Gross, an independent candidate backed by the state Democratic Party. Sullivan led by 4 points in the most recent survey, conducted Sept. 25-Oct. 4 by Alaska Survey Research, but the state has one of the least-polled Senate races. In Texas, Cook also shifted the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.” There, Sen. John Cornyn (R) faces Air Force veteran and former congressional candidate M.J. Hegar. Cornyn leads the race by an average of 7.6 points, according to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average. Cook also shifted Georgia’s Senate special election from “lean Republican” to “toss-up.” Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) is defending her seat in a race that includes Rep. Doug Collins (R-Ga.) and Democratic candidates Raphael Warnock and Matt Lieberman. If no one reaches more than 50 percent of the vote, the top two will face a runoff on Jan. 5. Marjorie Taylor Greene spars with GOP lawmaker over QAnon, antifa Senate Republicans scramble to put Trump at arm's length The Democratic vote in the election has largely consolidated around Warnock, a Baptist pastor who currently leads the field by 6.2 points in the RCP average of the race. Lieberman, who trails the other three candidates in most polling, has faced calls to drop out, but these have largely subsided since Warnock took the lead. Georgia will also hold a standard Senate election for its other seat between incumbent Sen. David Perdue (R) and Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff. Last week, the nonpartisan handicapper shifted the South Carolina Senate race from “lean Republican” in favor of incumbent Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) to a “toss-up,” giving Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison a boost. https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/520730-cook-political-report-moves-senate-races-in-texas-georgia-and-alaska-toward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoTier Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 2 hours ago, Backintheday544 said: Cook Political Report has 290 ECs at least leaning Dem now: https://cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/2020-09/EC Ratings.092920.2.pdf If these polling results hold up and these states go the way Cook projects, it will be a disaster for the GOP on the scale of 1932. They will lose the presidency, lose control of the Senate, and lose more seats in the House. That Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are in the "lean Democrat" column is amazing. I don't think Arizona was considered even a "toss up state" early on. The other three were all supposed to be "toss ups". Arizona in the "lean Democrat" column, Georgia and Iowa are in the toss up column, and Texas is in the "lean Republican" column represent, IMO, a rejection by many independent and Republican voters of Trump and the GOP that's supported him. These four states have generally been "solid Republican" in previous presidential elections. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbillievable Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 1 minute ago, SoTier said: If these polling results hold up and these states go the way Cook projects, it will be a disaster for the GOP on the scale of 1932. They will lose the presidency, lose control of the Senate, and lose more seats in the House. That Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are in the "lean Democrat" column is amazing. I don't think Arizona was considered even a "toss up state" early on. The other three were all supposed to be "toss ups". Arizona in the "lean Democrat" column, Georgia and Iowa are in the toss up column, and Texas is in the "lean Republican" column represent, IMO, a rejection by many independent and Republican voters of Trump and the GOP that's supported him. These four states have generally been "solid Republican" in previous presidential elections. "Even if Trump wins all the swing states, ALL OF THEM, Hillary still wins the election." -Rachel Maddow 2016. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoTier Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 1 minute ago, unbillievable said: "Even if Trump wins all the swing states, ALL OF THEM, Hillary still wins the election." -Rachel Maddow 2016. This isn't 2016. He's not running against Hillary Clinton. He's also not "the new guy on the block". Trump is the incumbent who has failed to deal effectively with the pandemic, which has not only killed over 215,000 Americans, but has brought economic hardship and outright disaster to tens of millions of Americans. Jimmy Carter and George HW Bush were the last two incumbents to face re-election in poor economies, and neither won. Coronavirus cases and hospitalizations are spiking around the country and Trump's economy is in far worse shape, but he keeps bragging about how he "beat the China flu" and how the economy is great because the stock market is up ... and the dumbass is still touting the "make America great again" slogan like he hasn't been the guy in the Oval Office for the last four years. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gary M Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 3 hours ago, Tiberius said: Florida: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 50, Trump 47 Biden +3 Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden KAAL-TV/SurveyUSA Biden 47, Trump 40 Biden +7 Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7 Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Biden 51, Trump 41 Biden +10 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7 Michigan: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Biden 48, Trump 40 Biden +8 "The Media" out with more polls 2016 all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Gary M said: 2016 all over again. No it isn't. I'm not the fool who says Biden has it in the bag or that it will be a landslide. But compare Florida which was heavily polled in both 2016 and now. The final Florida RCP average was Trump leading by 0.4 percentage points -- essentially a tie. Trump won Florida by 1.2 percentage points over Clinton; in other words, the polls may have underestimated his support (and/or overestimated Hillary's) by less than one percent. (By the way, another example of how polling in 2016 was actually really good -- the result, of course, was well within the margin of error of the polls.) The current 2020 RCP average: Biden + 3.7 So we have a 4 point shift toward the Dem, away from Trump as opposed to 2016. If I'm on Biden's campaign that's still way too close for comfort. But if I'm on Trump's side I'm a little panicky now ... Edited October 13, 2020 by The Frankish Reich 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbillievable Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 59 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: No it isn't. I'm not the fool who says Biden has it in the bag or that it will be a landslide. But compare Florida which was heavily polled in both 2016 and now. The final Florida RCP average was Trump leading by 0.4 percentage points -- essentially a tie. Trump won Florida by 1.2 percentage points over Clinton; in other words, the polls may have underestimated his support (and/or overestimated Hillary's) by less than one percent. (By the way, another example of how polling in 2016 was actually really good -- the result, of course, was well within the margin of error of the polls.) The current 2020 RCP average: Biden + 3.7 So we have a 4 point shift toward the Dem, away from Trump as opposed to 2016. If I'm on Biden's campaign that's still way too close for comfort. But if I'm on Trump's side I'm a little panicky now ... Does your polling analysis account for the majority of people telling the media to go F themselves? The only people answering these polls also support the peaceful protests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 13 minutes ago, unbillievable said: Does your polling analysis account for the majority of people telling the media to go F themselves? The only people answering these polls also support the peaceful protests. I just showed you that the 2016 Florida polling average came within 0.8 percentage points of the actual margin of victory. So maybe not all Trump supporters are as angry and irrational as others ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Fischer Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 I'm not here to debate the accuracy of polls, and I've heard "but 2016" enough to last a lifetime; instead, I have a serious question for GOP/Trump supporters. Dems, Independents and most political Republicans I know use the following resources to track campaigns to determine the state of the races: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ https://www.realclearpolitics.com https://cookpolitical.com https://www.cnn.com/profiles/harry-enten New York Times - Paths to 270 https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ https://leantossup.ca/us-presidency/ There are also a dozen or so other resources I won't link, but I often see the GOP/Trump/Fox News retort that the above resources are incorrect I am very curious were the actual counterfactual information is coming from. Can anyone provide their favorite resources? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 8 hours ago, Backintheday544 said: These numbers are comparing 10/10 to the actual. The entire 2016 saw a ton of movement, see here: The 2020 election has not seen anything like above. It's been relatively flat for Biden and Trump. Plus don't forget there was a big swing in votes after the Comey election. I would agree with you on early voting numbers in any other year. However, a much larger set of the population is early voting than ever before due to COVID. NC I think goes Trump of any of the swing states. There's less undecideds this year compared to 2016 (most undecideds went to Trump). Polls have already shown Demcrats are going to vote by mail significantly more than Republicans who will vote more on election day. The only way these strong early mail in voting impact the race is Dems can spend elsewhere knowing they already have those votes in the bank. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Fischer Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, BeerLeagueHockey said: You put in a lot of work for someone who has a 3 TD lead with less than a quarter to go! Well, that's the crux, isn't it? It takes no time at all to post a half dozen sources of political information and analysis. For those who have consistently argued the resources are incorrect, I'm looking for alternative sources of information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted October 13, 2020 Author Share Posted October 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Max Fischer said: Well, that's the crux, isn't it? It takes no time at all to post a half dozen sources of political information and analysis. For those who have consistently argued the resources are incorrect, I'm looking for alternative sources of information. Trump’s twitter feed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 (edited) 38 minutes ago, BeerLeagueHockey said: You put in a lot of work for someone who has a 3 TD lead with less than a quarter to go! Fivethirtyeight says it's about an 80% chance of a Biden win. So thanks to Pro Football Reference, that's equivalent to: - Biden with a 3 point lead - 6 minutes to go - Biden has the ball, 1st and 10 at his own 25. So is Trump Josh Allen? Or Tyrod Taylor?? (We'll ignore defenses for now) EDIT: Or a better example - Team TRUMP has the ball, 2nd and 10 and its own 25 - Trailing by 4 points, 6:00 on the clock in the 4th quarter. That gives Team Trump an 18% chance of winning, almost right where fivethirtyeight has him right now. In other words, tough, but it's not like we haven't seen teams come back from this exact situation this year already ... Edited October 13, 2020 by The Frankish Reich 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoTier Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 3 hours ago, unbillievable said: Does your polling analysis account for the majority of people telling the media to go F themselves? The only people answering these polls also support the peaceful protests. Nostradumbass speaks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, BeerLeagueHockey said: That feels about right, I guess I was exaggerating a little. Per 538, Trump had a 30% chance to win back in 2016. He basically ran the right roulette table numbers to a win. He would need a better "holy roller" type ending to this election game to pull it off. And if he did, you can bet a rules change would be required, similar to the Raiders "intentional" fumble. Right. This is why no one on the Biden side is relaxing. (Not even Joe, who is venturing out to give speeches to a smattering of people in his travel party.) A Trump upset would be about the same degree of upset that that Bills win in Minnesota against the Vikes a couple years ago. Edited October 13, 2020 by The Frankish Reich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Good article on what pollsters have changed in 2020 https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-pollsters-have-changed-since-2016-and-what-still-worries-them-about-2020/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoTier Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Max Fischer said: I'm not here to debate the accuracy of polls, and I've heard "but 2016" enough to last a lifetime; instead, I have a serious question for GOP/Trump supporters. Dems, Independents and most political Republicans I know use the following resources to track campaigns to determine the state of the races: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ https://www.realclearpolitics.com https://cookpolitical.com https://www.cnn.com/profiles/harry-enten New York Times - Paths to 270 https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ https://leantossup.ca/us-presidency/ There are also a dozen or so other resources I won't link, but I often see the GOP/Trump/Fox News retort that the above resources are incorrect I am very curious were the actual counterfactual information is coming from. Can anyone provide their favorite resources? The Wishful Thinking Club and Tin Foil Hat Society would be likely sources in this election but I think their polls are private and only available to those who have a tattoo of Covid Donnie on their rumps. Seriously, I don't think you'll get many answers from Trump supporters. My guess is that even internal GOP polling is looking bad, which is why Trump is staging his campaign rally tour. The problem is that he's simply preaching to the converted. My guess is that for most of the voters who remain "undecided" at this point, Trump is not really an option. They're torn between voting for Biden, voting for a third party candidate or, worst of all for the GOP candidates in tight races, not voting at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragoon Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Cast my ballot of Donny this morning! Trump Train! We gon do this again!!! In closing and in my best Ric Flair, WOOOOOO! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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