oldmanfan Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, shoshin said: Landline he says. I am old, after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 17 minutes ago, shoshin said: Landline he says. Hey, I have a landline I never use ... it's there for a home security system only. One of these days I'll update the security system and dump it ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoTier Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 52 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: I am old, after all. I'm old, too, but as a retired techy, I'm an early adopter of technology. I haven't had a landline in a decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ComradeKayAdams Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 On 10/16/2020 at 11:05 AM, Tiberius said: Trafalgar group always has Trump doing better Trafalgar Group is about as reliable as Rasmussen. They’re coasting on their 2016 reputation for predicting Michigan correctly, but IMO that had everything to do with luck and not insight. A time traveler back to 2016 would find much more electorate insight from any randomly selected Bernie campaign volunteer in Michigan. They were all warning the Democratic Party of Hillary’s weaknesses in the Midwest! Anyway…I am suffering from poll-watching fatigue and cannot wait any longer to make my official Election Day predictions. I think I’ve been ready since the Friday after the first presidential debate! The few remaining undecided voters will have a negligible effect at this point, either not bothering to vote or approximately cancelling each other out on both sides. So barring any sudden candidate health crises or catastrophic natural disasters or World War 3 flare-ups within the next couple weeks, here they are: 1. President: I have Biden narrowly beating Trump 278 to 260 by keeping 50/53 of the 2016 electoral college map and then flipping Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. My reasons: I believe the polling methodologies used this year are largely correct. The modeling is not too dissimilar from what was used to predict the 2018 “Blue Wave,” and all have corrected the Midwest undersampling flaws by education level which plagued the 2016 polls. Future historians will say that Trump lost this election on the singular issue of his pandemic mishandling. Older people and suburban white women can’t forgive him for his callous and flippant treatment of COVID-19. Also, the pro-union white working class of the Rust Belt don’t hate Biden like they hated Hillary in 2016. The only factors I see keeping this election closer than the consensus poll projections are the party voter base enthusiasm differential that Trump enjoys, the expected number of mail-in ballots (disproportionately favoring Democrats) that will get thrown out on technicalities, and the small but measurable bump that Trump should expect from the fraction of his supporters who ignore and lie to pollsters. 2. Senate: This will be far more interesting to follow than the presidential battle! I’m projecting an earth-shattering transfer of power with 6 Rep-to-Dem flips (losers: Collins in Maine, Tillis in NC, Loeffler in Georgia, Ernst in Iowa, Gardner in Colorado, McSally in Arizona) and only 1 Dem-to-Rep flip (loser: Jones in Alabama). That would give the Democrats (with Angus and Bernie) a 52 to 48 majority. The problem with this prediction, however, is that so many of these Senate battles are neck-and-neck and well within the statistical margins of error in these polls. This could just as easily end up as something like a 53-47 Republican majority hold. But I’m sticking with my prediction. I think Americans are angry enough with Senate incumbent leadership this year, especially with how the pandemic economic stimulus response has been handled. 3. House: Democrats will hold it, going up from 232 to 244 (218 is needed for a majority). I’m feeling way too lazy to type out all my flips from 2018 lol. Pelosi will hold her seat over Buttar, which I hope will fuel a heightened sense of urgency among my fellow progressives. Biden, Harris, Pelosi, and Schumer potentially all in power for the next 2+ years?! Once the Great Orange Terror is removed, the Great Democratic Civil War between progressives and neoliberals must commence. In the words of legendary motivational speaker, Bartholomew Scott: “CAN’T WAIT.” 4. Governors: 27 to 23 in favor of the Republicans (VT, NH, WV, IN, MO, ND, MT, UT) over the Democrats (WA, NC, DE). Not exactly the boldest of predictions…but RealKayAdams keeps things REAL for ya. Time for Bills game! Woooooo!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted October 20, 2020 Author Share Posted October 20, 2020 3 hours ago, RealKayAdams said: Trafalgar Group is about as reliable as Rasmussen. They’re coasting on their 2016 reputation for predicting Michigan correctly, but IMO that had everything to do with luck and not insight. A time traveler back to 2016 would find much more electorate insight from any randomly selected Bernie campaign volunteer in Michigan. They were all warning the Democratic Party of Hillary’s weaknesses in the Midwest! Anyway…I am suffering from poll-watching fatigue and cannot wait any longer to make my official Election Day predictions. I think I’ve been ready since the Friday after the first presidential debate! The few remaining undecided voters will have a negligible effect at this point, either not bothering to vote or approximately cancelling each other out on both sides. So barring any sudden candidate health crises or catastrophic natural disasters or World War 3 flare-ups within the next couple weeks, here they are: 1. President: I have Biden narrowly beating Trump 278 to 260 by keeping 50/53 of the 2016 electoral college map and then flipping Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. My reasons: I believe the polling methodologies used this year are largely correct. The modeling is not too dissimilar from what was used to predict the 2018 “Blue Wave,” and all have corrected the Midwest undersampling flaws by education level which plagued the 2016 polls. Future historians will say that Trump lost this election on the singular issue of his pandemic mishandling. Older people and suburban white women can’t forgive him for his callous and flippant treatment of COVID-19. Also, the pro-union white working class of the Rust Belt don’t hate Biden like they hated Hillary in 2016. The only factors I see keeping this election closer than the consensus poll projections are the party voter base enthusiasm differential that Trump enjoys, the expected number of mail-in ballots (disproportionately favoring Democrats) that will get thrown out on technicalities, and the small but measurable bump that Trump should expect from the fraction of his supporters who ignore and lie to pollsters. 2. Senate: This will be far more interesting to follow than the presidential battle! I’m projecting an earth-shattering transfer of power with 6 Rep-to-Dem flips (losers: Collins in Maine, Tillis in NC, Loeffler in Georgia, Ernst in Iowa, Gardner in Colorado, McSally in Arizona) and only 1 Dem-to-Rep flip (loser: Jones in Alabama). That would give the Democrats (with Angus and Bernie) a 52 to 48 majority. The problem with this prediction, however, is that so many of these Senate battles are neck-and-neck and well within the statistical margins of error in these polls. This could just as easily end up as something like a 53-47 Republican majority hold. But I’m sticking with my prediction. I think Americans are angry enough with Senate incumbent leadership this year, especially with how the pandemic economic stimulus response has been handled. 3. House: Democrats will hold it, going up from 232 to 244 (218 is needed for a majority). I’m feeling way too lazy to type out all my flips from 2018 lol. Pelosi will hold her seat over Buttar, which I hope will fuel a heightened sense of urgency among my fellow progressives. Biden, Harris, Pelosi, and Schumer potentially all in power for the next 2+ years?! Once the Great Orange Terror is removed, the Great Democratic Civil War between progressives and neoliberals must commence. In the words of legendary motivational speaker, Bartholomew Scott: “CAN’T WAIT.” 4. Governors: 27 to 23 in favor of the Republicans (VT, NH, WV, IN, MO, ND, MT, UT) over the Democrats (WA, NC, DE). Not exactly the boldest of predictions…but RealKayAdams keeps things REAL for ya. Time for Bills game! Woooooo!!! Not even Trafalger can hide the truth in Wisconsin Results Spread Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 49, Trump 45 Biden +4 Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Trafalgar Group (R)* Biden 48, Trump 46 Biden +2 Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 51, Trump 43 Biden +8 Colorado: Trump vs. Biden Univ. of Colorado/YouGov Biden 47, Trump 38 Biden +9 General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins IBD/TIPP Biden 50, Trump 44, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 1 Biden +6 General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins JTN/RMG Research Biden 51, Trump 43, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoTier Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 8 hours ago, RealKayAdams said: Trafalgar Group is about as reliable as Rasmussen. They’re coasting on their 2016 reputation for predicting Michigan correctly, but IMO that had everything to do with luck and not insight. A time traveler back to 2016 would find much more electorate insight from any randomly selected Bernie campaign volunteer in Michigan. They were all warning the Democratic Party of Hillary’s weaknesses in the Midwest! Anyway…I am suffering from poll-watching fatigue and cannot wait any longer to make my official Election Day predictions. I think I’ve been ready since the Friday after the first presidential debate! The few remaining undecided voters will have a negligible effect at this point, either not bothering to vote or approximately cancelling each other out on both sides. So barring any sudden candidate health crises or catastrophic natural disasters or World War 3 flare-ups within the next couple weeks, here they are: 1. President: I have Biden narrowly beating Trump 278 to 260 by keeping 50/53 of the 2016 electoral college map and then flipping Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. My reasons: I believe the polling methodologies used this year are largely correct. The modeling is not too dissimilar from what was used to predict the 2018 “Blue Wave,” and all have corrected the Midwest undersampling flaws by education level which plagued the 2016 polls. Future historians will say that Trump lost this election on the singular issue of his pandemic mishandling. Older people and suburban white women can’t forgive him for his callous and flippant treatment of COVID-19. Also, the pro-union white working class of the Rust Belt don’t hate Biden like they hated Hillary in 2016. The only factors I see keeping this election closer than the consensus poll projections are the party voter base enthusiasm differential that Trump enjoys, the expected number of mail-in ballots (disproportionately favoring Democrats) that will get thrown out on technicalities, and the small but measurable bump that Trump should expect from the fraction of his supporters who ignore and lie to pollsters. 2. Senate: This will be far more interesting to follow than the presidential battle! I’m projecting an earth-shattering transfer of power with 6 Rep-to-Dem flips (losers: Collins in Maine, Tillis in NC, Loeffler in Georgia, Ernst in Iowa, Gardner in Colorado, McSally in Arizona) and only 1 Dem-to-Rep flip (loser: Jones in Alabama). That would give the Democrats (with Angus and Bernie) a 52 to 48 majority. The problem with this prediction, however, is that so many of these Senate battles are neck-and-neck and well within the statistical margins of error in these polls. This could just as easily end up as something like a 53-47 Republican majority hold. But I’m sticking with my prediction. I think Americans are angry enough with Senate incumbent leadership this year, especially with how the pandemic economic stimulus response has been handled. 3. House: Democrats will hold it, going up from 232 to 244 (218 is needed for a majority). I’m feeling way too lazy to type out all my flips from 2018 lol. Pelosi will hold her seat over Buttar, which I hope will fuel a heightened sense of urgency among my fellow progressives. Biden, Harris, Pelosi, and Schumer potentially all in power for the next 2+ years?! Once the Great Orange Terror is removed, the Great Democratic Civil War between progressives and neoliberals must commence. In the words of legendary motivational speaker, Bartholomew Scott: “CAN’T WAIT.” 4. Governors: 27 to 23 in favor of the Republicans (VT, NH, WV, IN, MO, ND, MT, UT) over the Democrats (WA, NC, DE). Not exactly the boldest of predictions…but RealKayAdams keeps things REAL for ya. Time for Bills game! Woooooo!!! Excellent analysis. I pretty much agree with it except that I think Biden's Electoral College margin will be significantly larger, likely over 300. States that are considered solid, likely or leaning Democratic and which Biden is likely to win would give him 290 Electoral College votes. He's also currently leading in all of the toss up states, and even Texas is in play for Biden. I think the popular vote will be much closer than the EC vote might indicate (FDR won 472 electoral votes in 1932 but only about 57% of the popular vote) but maybe not. The coronavirus cases and hospitalizations are on the rise again, especially in the Midwest with several states like Wisconsin and New Mexico seeing their medical facilities already showing some strain from increasing cases. Trump is also running a truly bizarre campaign in which he doesn't seem interested in converting new voters into supporters. Rather, he continually gives undecided voters reasons to not vote for him while entertaining his own true believers and basking in their cheers and chants. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 Among the names being floated for possible Biden Cabinet posts are Meg Whitman, the CEO of Quibi and former CEO of eBay, and former Ohio Gov. John Kasich, both of whom spoke at August’s Democratic National Convention. Massachusetts GOP Gov. Charlie Baker and former Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) have also been mentioned, as has former Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Penn.), who resigned from Congress in 2018 and became a lobbyist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 BOFFO? https://news.yahoo.com/trump-ramps-rally-strategy-may-004400796.html "He goes out, he gets no people at any of the rallies," Trump said of Democratic nominee Joe Biden at a Sunday campaign event in Nevada. "I go out, we get 35,000. 40,000, 25,000, 15,000. We go boom, 15,000, we get the biggest crowds in the history of politics. ... We get these massive crowds, he gets nobody and then they say we are tied." While none of the president's live events in the coronavirus era has come anywhere close to drawing those numbers, they remain the centerpiece of his campaign, with Trump leaning on them not just as a metric of where the contest stands but as a prime mover of the ultimate outcome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoTier Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 18 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said: BOFFO? https://news.yahoo.com/trump-ramps-rally-strategy-may-004400796.html "He goes out, he gets no people at any of the rallies," Trump said of Democratic nominee Joe Biden at a Sunday campaign event in Nevada. "I go out, we get 35,000. 40,000, 25,000, 15,000. We go boom, 15,000, we get the biggest crowds in the history of politics. ... We get these massive crowds, he gets nobody and then they say we are tied." While none of the president's live events in the coronavirus era has come anywhere close to drawing those numbers, they remain the centerpiece of his campaign, with Trump leaning on them not just as a metric of where the contest stands but as a prime mover of the ultimate outcome. Good article! I found the campaign funding info interesting. I knew that Covid Donnie was trailing Biden in fund raising but for a sitting POTUS to be so cash strapped that he can't afford TV ads in critical states so close to the election while the challenger is rolling in dough is simply remarkable. This says that the big GOP donors who have traditionally given Republican candidates significant campaign dollar advantages over their challengers have abandoned Covid Donnie, either saving their money for another day or quietly funneling it to Biden. It says to me that even conservative billionaires love their country too much to support a sociopathic wannabe dictator willing to sacrifice anyone and anything to stay in office. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted October 20, 2020 Author Share Posted October 20, 2020 Election 2020 Trump, Biden in dead heat in battleground North Carolina A Washington Post-ABC poll finds Joe Biden at 49 percent and President Trump at 48 percent among likely voters, with the economy buoying the president’s candidacy and Biden boosted by his potential handling of the coronavirus pandemic. By Dan Balz, Scott Clement and Emily Guskin1 hour ago Post-ABC poll finds a tight Senate race in North Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 1 hour ago, SoTier said: Good article! I found the campaign funding info interesting. I knew that Covid Donnie was trailing Biden in fund raising but for a sitting POTUS to be so cash strapped that he can't afford TV ads in critical states so close to the election while the challenger is rolling in dough is simply remarkable. This says that the big GOP donors who have traditionally given Republican candidates significant campaign dollar advantages over their challengers have abandoned Covid Donnie, either saving their money for another day or quietly funneling it to Biden. It says to me that even conservative billionaires love their country too much to support a sociopathic wannabe dictator willing to sacrifice anyone and anything to stay in office. The Agent of Chaos said he could get more $ in fundraising if "he wanted to" LMAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gary M Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 On 10/17/2020 at 7:19 AM, OldTimeAFLGuy said: ...anybody here ever been polled?...been a registered voter for 49 years and never a call.......they must know me........... Nope https://6abc.com/lochel's-bakery-hatbro-pennsylvania-cookies-president-poll-montgomery-county-pa/7029289/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted October 20, 2020 Author Share Posted October 20, 2020 Florida: Trump vs. Biden UNF Biden 48, Trump 47 Biden +1 Georgia: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 47, Trump 48 Trump +1 North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post* Biden 49, Trump 48 Biden +1 Kentucky: Trump vs. Biden Mason-Dixon Trump 56, Biden 39 Trump +17 General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins NY Times/Siena Biden 50, Trump 41, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 0 Biden +9 General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins IBD/TIPP Biden 48, Trump 46, Jorgensen 3, Hawkins 1 Biden +2 Georgia Senate - Perdue vs. Ossoff Emerson Perdue 46, Ossoff 45 Perdue +1 Georgia Senate Special Election - Open Primary Emerson Warnock 27, Loeffler 20, Collins 27, Lieberman 12, Tarver 2, Slowinski Tie North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham ABC News/Wash Post Cunningham 49, Tillis 47 Cunningham +2 Utah Governor - Cox vs. Peterson Deseret/RMG Research* Cox 50, Peterson 26 Cox +24 President Trump Job Approval NY Times/Siena Approve 43, Disapprove 51 Disapprove +8 President Trump Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 49, Disapprove 50 Disapprove +1 Trump has a big lead in Kentucky! Oh boy! Those are his type of voters, yes sir 🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted October 21, 2020 Author Share Posted October 21, 2020 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden USA Today/Suffolk* Biden 49, Trump 42 Biden +7 General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 52, Trump 43 Biden +9 General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D)* Biden 52, Trump 42 Biden +10 General Election: Trump vs. Biden SurveyUSA Biden 53, Trump 43 Biden +10 General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins IBD/TIPP Biden 49, Trump 46, Jorgensen 3, Hawkins 1 Biden +3 President Trump Job Approval CNBC/Change Research (D) Approve 44, Disapprove 56 Disapprove +12 Kentucky Senate - McConnell vs. McGrath Mason-Dixon* McConnell 51, McGrath 42 McConnell +9 President Trump Job Approval Gallup Approve 43, Disapprove 55 Disapprove +12 President Trump Job Approval Politico/Morning Consult Approve 43, Disapprove 55 Disapprove +12 President Trump Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 49, Disapprove 50 Disapprove +1 President Trump Job Approval Economist/YouGov Approve 45, Disapprove 54 Disapprove +9 2020 Generic Congressional Vote Economist/YouGov Democrats 50, Republicans 43 Democrats +7 Congressional Job Approval Economist/YouGov Approve 13, Disapprove 68 Disapprove +55 Direction of Country Economist/YouGov Right Direction 27, Wrong Track 65 Wrong Track +38 Direction of Country Politico/Morning Consult Right Direction 36, Wrong Track 64 Wrong Track +28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted October 21, 2020 Author Share Posted October 21, 2020 Whole bunch of new polls Governor Polls | Approval Polls | All Latest Polls Tuesday, October 20 Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread Florida: Trump vs. Biden UNF Biden 48, Trump 47 Biden +1 Florida: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 50, Trump 45 Biden +5 Georgia: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 47, Trump 48 Trump +1 Georgia: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Biden 45, Trump 45 Tie Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden MinnPost* Biden 49, Trump 44 Biden +5 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 50, Trump 47 Biden +3 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 49, Trump 47 Biden +2 Iowa: Trump vs. Biden InsiderAdvantage* Biden 45, Trump 45 Tie North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post* Biden 49, Trump 48 Biden +1 North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden East Carolina U. Biden 50, Trump 47 Biden +3 North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 50, Trump 47 Biden +3 North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 49, Trump 46 Biden +3 Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 52, Trump 44 Biden +8 Michigan: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7 Michigan: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7 Ohio: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Trump 47, Biden 48 Biden +1 Arizona: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 51, Trump 45 Biden +6 Kentucky: Trump vs. Biden Mason-Dixon Trump 56, Biden 39 Trump +17 General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins NY Times/Siena Biden 50, Trump 41, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 0 Biden +9 General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins IBD/TIPP Biden 48, Trump 46, Jorgensen 3, Hawkins 1 Biden +2 Minnesota Senate - Lewis vs. Smith MinnPost* Smith 48, Lewis 44 Smith +4 North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham Reuters/Ipsos Cunningham 47, Tillis 47 Tie North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham ABC News/Wash Post Cunningham 49, Tillis 47 Cunningham +2 North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham East Carolina U. Cunningham 48, Tillis 47 Cunningham +1 North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham CNBC/Change Research (D) Cunningham 51, Tillis 45 Cunningham +6 Georgia Senate - Perdue vs. Ossoff Emerson Perdue 46, Ossoff 45 Perdue +1 Georgia Senate - Perdue vs. Ossoff NY Times/Siena* Perdue 43, Ossoff 43 Tie Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters Reuters/Ipsos Peters 50, James 45 Peters +5 Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters CNBC/Change Research (D) Peters 50, James 45 Peters +5 Iowa Senate - Ernst vs. Greenfield InsiderAdvantage* Greenfield 48, Ernst 43 Greenfield +5 Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly CNBC/Change Research (D) Kelly 54, McSally 43 Kelly +11 Georgia Senate Special Election - Open Primary Emerson Warnock 27, Loeffler 20, Collins 27, Lieberman 12, Tarver 2, Slowinski Tie Georgia Senate Special Election - Open Primary NY Times/Siena* Warnock 32, Loeffler 23, Collins 17, Lieberman 7, Tarver 2, Slowinski Warnock +9 North Carolina Governor - Forest vs. Cooper East Carolina U. Cooper 53, Forest 44 Cooper +9 Utah Governor - Cox vs. Peterson Deseret/RMG Research* Cox 50, Peterson 26 Cox +24 President Trump Job Approval NY Times/Siena Approve 43, Disapprove 51 Disapprove +8 President Trump Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 49, Disapprove 50 Disapprove +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted October 23, 2020 Author Share Posted October 23, 2020 2020 ELECTIONS 'Warning flare': New swing-state data shows massive Democratic early-vote lead In a worrisome sign for Republicans, Democrats are also turning out more low-frequency and newly registered voters than the GOP. Voters fill cast their ballots on Wednesday in Miami. The state of Florida saw a record-breaking first day of early voting with over 3.1 million votes cast. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images By MARC CAPUTO and ZACH MONTELLARO 10/23/2020 04:30 AM EDT Democrats have opened up a yawning gap in early voting over Republicans in six of the most crucial battleground states — but that only begins to tell the story of their advantage heading into Election Day. In a more worrisome sign for Republicans, Democrats are also turning out more low-frequency and newly registered voters than the GOP, according to internal data shared with POLITICO by Hawkfish, a new Democratic research firm, which was reviewed by Republicans and independent experts. The turnout data does not mean Donald Trump will lose to Joe Biden. Both sides are bracing for a close race and a giant wave of Republicans to vote in person on Nov. 3. Yet the turnout disparity with new and less-reliable voters has forced Republican political operatives to take notice. “It’s a warning flare,” said veteran Republican strategist Scott Reed. “Some Republicans are stuck in a model that we always run up the score on Election Day to make up the difference,” Reed said. “I think running an election in a superpolarized electorate, you want to win early voting. Let’s go. Let’s stop talking and making excuses.” The GOP caught an encouraging glimpse in Florida on Tuesday, when more Republicans began casting in-person, early ballots than Democrats in Trump’s must-win state. But Democrats have dominated voting by mail and on Thursday held a historic lead in total pre-Election Day ballots cast of 463,000, or 10 percentage points, according to the state’s Division of Elections. Gov. Ron DeSantis this week urged Republicans to vote early in person, a message Trump plans to echo on Saturday, when he’s expected to call on his base to get to the polls. At a glance, the top-line Democratic margins also look huge in Arizona (16 percentage points), Michigan (24 points), North Carolina (14 points), Pennsylvania (46 points), and Wisconsin (22), according to the analysis from Hawkfish, which is funded by billionaire Michael Bloomberg, a Trump foe. Though the numbers look good for Democrats, they're not cause for complacency for Hawkfish’s CEO, Josh Mendelsohn, who echoes Republicans in saying that he expects high-propensity Trump voters to increasingly show up in force. Compared with Republicans, Democrats are exhausting far more of their high-propensity voters and the margins are expected to start tightening, as they have in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
\GoBillsInDallas/ Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 On 8/31/2020 at 3:39 PM, Tiberius said: Latest Poles 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted October 23, 2020 Author Share Posted October 23, 2020 1 hour ago, \GoBillsInDallas/ said: I like the brunette the best, but would be willing to reconsider after more through investigation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Tiberius said: I like the brunette the best, but would be willing to reconsider after more through investigation She is correctly identified as a 10, per her wrist label 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Gun Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 On 10/21/2020 at 12:33 PM, Tiberius said: Whole bunch of new polls Governor Polls | Approval Polls | All Latest Polls Tuesday, October 20 Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread Florida: Trump vs. Biden UNF Biden 48, Trump 47 Biden +1 Florida: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 50, Trump 45 Biden +5 Georgia: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 47, Trump 48 Trump +1 Georgia: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Biden 45, Trump 45 Tie Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden MinnPost* Biden 49, Trump 44 Biden +5 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 50, Trump 47 Biden +3 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 49, Trump 47 Biden +2 Iowa: Trump vs. Biden InsiderAdvantage* Biden 45, Trump 45 Tie North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post* Biden 49, Trump 48 Biden +1 North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden East Carolina U. Biden 50, Trump 47 Biden +3 North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 50, Trump 47 Biden +3 North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 49, Trump 46 Biden +3 Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 52, Trump 44 Biden +8 Michigan: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7 Michigan: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7 Ohio: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Trump 47, Biden 48 Biden +1 Arizona: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 51, Trump 45 Biden +6 Kentucky: Trump vs. Biden Mason-Dixon Trump 56, Biden 39 Trump +17 General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins NY Times/Siena Biden 50, Trump 41, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 0 Biden +9 General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins IBD/TIPP Biden 48, Trump 46, Jorgensen 3, Hawkins 1 Biden +2 Minnesota Senate - Lewis vs. Smith MinnPost* Smith 48, Lewis 44 Smith +4 North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham Reuters/Ipsos Cunningham 47, Tillis 47 Tie North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham ABC News/Wash Post Cunningham 49, Tillis 47 Cunningham +2 North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham East Carolina U. Cunningham 48, Tillis 47 Cunningham +1 North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham CNBC/Change Research (D) Cunningham 51, Tillis 45 Cunningham +6 Georgia Senate - Perdue vs. Ossoff Emerson Perdue 46, Ossoff 45 Perdue +1 Georgia Senate - Perdue vs. Ossoff NY Times/Siena* Perdue 43, Ossoff 43 Tie Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters Reuters/Ipsos Peters 50, James 45 Peters +5 Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters CNBC/Change Research (D) Peters 50, James 45 Peters +5 Iowa Senate - Ernst vs. Greenfield InsiderAdvantage* Greenfield 48, Ernst 43 Greenfield +5 Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly CNBC/Change Research (D) Kelly 54, McSally 43 Kelly +11 Georgia Senate Special Election - Open Primary Emerson Warnock 27, Loeffler 20, Collins 27, Lieberman 12, Tarver 2, Slowinski Tie Georgia Senate Special Election - Open Primary NY Times/Siena* Warnock 32, Loeffler 23, Collins 17, Lieberman 7, Tarver 2, Slowinski Warnock +9 North Carolina Governor - Forest vs. Cooper East Carolina U. Cooper 53, Forest 44 Cooper +9 Utah Governor - Cox vs. Peterson Deseret/RMG Research* Cox 50, Peterson 26 Cox +24 President Trump Job Approval NY Times/Siena Approve 43, Disapprove 51 Disapprove +8 President Trump Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 49, Disapprove 50 Disapprove +1 Boy are you going to be disappointed, these biased polls are bunk and you know it. If you dont know that by now you're pretty dumb. Dems traditionally vote early and have large leads where as Repubs vote late in person at the polls and will win the election. Trafalgar is a much more accurate poll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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