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Kirby Jackson

What would/should a Milano extension look like?

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8 hours ago, Motor26 said:

Poyer got paid this year. I like Milano but I wouldn’t shell out 13 million a year for the guy, especially since the cap won’t be as high as we used to think.


Motor, I must have missed the Poyer extension so thank you.  So much for google as it still had him only through 2020.  As far as Milano, just bear in mind that extra year bringing the overall total down to $10.8 Mil. for five years.

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9 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

That's not what I meant. I meant you need draft picks on their initial contract to fill out your team. Once you pay Allen there will be little room left. You can't sign everyone. You need to pick and choose who to let go and where you can draft replacements. Of course Milano on a team friendly deal would be great. But those dollars will add up and limit your options in the future. 

They got lucky and got a very good player at low cost. Now don't make a mistake and overpay to keep him.

At 4-60 you let him walk and get a 3rd round comp pick. Easy choice. 

Just ask what Belichick would do.  No way he pays 60 M for an undersized LB that he can replace in the draft or free agency for 1/5th the price.


gotcha. I’d be willing to overpay slightly as long as the years weren’t too much.
 

Transition or franchise tags might be a better option considering they will go down if the cap does and gives more time to decide what Allen’s contract might look like. 
 

Even if the cap goes down they will have the space until Allen’s contract goes up so might as well spend it on Milano as opposed to overpaying someone in free agency. 

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7 hours ago, 2ForMacAdoo said:

Sweet Jesus, if this is even close to what he's looking for, for the love of God let him walk. You can only pay a limited number of guys elite money and for me those guys are: 1) Tre'Day, 2) Tremaine and probably 3)Ed Oliver on D;   4) Josh, 5) Dion and 6) Ya DIgg on Offense.  If you give an undersized LB $15 million per, I guarantee you one of the above mentioned 6 players cannot be re-signed. 

Yea. Have to figure out who to prioritize, but I it's too early to say on Josh. This year will determine that, IMO.

 

I agree though. They are going to have to let some guys walk and Milano seems like one they will.

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24 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Yea. Have to figure out who to prioritize, but I it's too early to say on Josh. This year will determine that, IMO.

 

I agree though. They are going to have to let some guys walk and Milano seems like one they will.

Agreed on Josh. May also be too early to say on Tremaine and Oliver. For Josh and those two guys, I'm going on raw talent and potential ceiling. Milano, while a nice find in the 5th round, just isn't in the same category. 

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58 minutes ago, Chemical said:


gotcha. I’d be willing to overpay slightly as long as the years weren’t too much.
 

Transition or franchise tags might be a better option considering they will go down if the cap does and gives more time to decide what Allen’s contract might look like. 
 

Even if the cap goes down they will have the space until Allen’s contract goes up so might as well spend it on Milano as opposed to overpaying someone in free agency. 

I agree on the tag. Before Dawkins was extended I advocated for signing either Dawkins or Milano and tagging the other. Bills have cap space now to add a player like Clowney or roll it over and tag a player like Milano. For one year he will be grossly overpaid but there is no long term issue with the cap by avoiding a 4 year deal.

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On 8/14/2020 at 9:24 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

There is a lot of discussion in the “who is next” thread about Milano. He’s in the last year of his deal and seems to be pretty polarizing when it comes to his next contract. I felt that this discussion needed to be broken out to talk just about Milano and the numbers. Is Milano’s playmaking ability the product of the system or the reason that the system is so effective? It’s a little chicken and egg
 

In my opinion the Bills came into this offseason wanting to extend Dawkins, Spain and Milano (obviously Beane and McDermott too but they don’t factor into the cap). The Bills probably had a total number in mind for these 3. Dawkins contract is probably almost exactly what they expected. Spain was a bargain for the Bills. He was probably $2m-$3M less than they expected on an annual basis. What they expect for Milano is anybody’s guess. It seems like most projections are in the $14M a year range. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.buffalorumblings.com/platform/amp/2020/3/2/21157016/contract-projection-for-buffalo-bills-linebacker-matt-milano-highest-paid-linebacker-in-the-nfl
 

Would you be comfortable with Milano at roughly the same deal that Dawkins just signed? Let’s say 4 years and $56M. If not, what would your contract offer to Milano be? 

 

 

 

 

I think the Bills ideally would like to see if they are able to draft someone or have someone in place that can replace him that plays at a similar level.  But if they cannot do that and view him as an integral piece then I think an extension of 4 years $45 million with $25 million guaranteed would be what they would be willing to pay him.

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Here is a link to Spotrac’s $13M AAV estimate (4/$52M).  I knew Milano would be the toughest decision going forward.  Lots of contracts at more important positions coming due soon.  Also there’s the matter of having a lot of cap space tied up in the LB corps in a few seasons once Edmunds is extended.
 

I’m not too worried about a one year dip in the cap as long as it comes roaring back as expected in 2022.  I am worried about affording Tre, Allen and Edmunds in addition to Milano though.  My heart says see if he’ll take a bit of a discount on an extension now and get it done.  My head says to extend Tre now and have Milano play out the season, test the market and give us a last look to match what he finds.  Then hope it’s not a great market for him and we can afford to keep him. 

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4 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Here is a link to Spotrac’s $13M AAV estimate (4/$52M).  I knew Milano would be the toughest decision going forward.  Lots of contracts at more important positions coming due soon.  Also there’s the matter of having a lot of cap space tied up in the LB corps in a few seasons once Edmunds is extended.
 

I’m not too worried about a one year dip in the cap as long as it comes roaring back as expected in 2022.  I am worried about affording Tre, Allen and Edmunds in addition to Milano though.  My heart says see if he’ll take a bit of a discount on an extension now and get it done.  My head says to extend Tre now and have Milano play out the season, test the market and give us a last look to match what he finds.  Then hope it’s not a great market for him and we can afford to keep him. 

 

I feel like Milano is not a guy who will push for a top end deal.  Just my gut.  I think he understands what players and positions need to "get paid" and will give the Bills a discount.  The Bills aren't going to extend Tre now because it's not in Tre's best interests to do that and you need two to tango.  The only reason for Tre to extend now is if he fears injury, but I don't see that happening.  My instincts tell me Beane is feeling out Milano and his agent for just what they're pushing for; if it's in the 14M range they will likely let it play out; if he's in the 12-13M range perhaps a deal gets done.  I don't think Milano is successful just because of the scheme, though -- the guy is talented and would shine in any defense.

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3 minutes ago, eball said:

 

I feel like Milano is not a guy who will push for a top end deal.  Just my gut.  I think he understands what players and positions need to "get paid" and will give the Bills a discount.  The Bills aren't going to extend Tre now because it's not in Tre's best interests to do that and you need two to tango.  The only reason for Tre to extend now is if he fears injury, but I don't see that happening.  My instincts tell me Beane is feeling out Milano and his agent for just what they're pushing for; if it's in the 14M range they will likely let it play out; if he's in the 12-13M range perhaps a deal gets done.  I don't think Milano is successful just because of the scheme, though -- the guy is talented and would shine in any defense.


Agree on Milano, but Tre has no reason not to do an extension now if he wants to stay here.  Elite players aren’t taking discounts due to the (probable) cap dip next season.  My bet is now that Dawkins is done Tre will be next up. 
 

I’d like to see the Bills find a way to keep Milano, but I don’t know that they are planning on it.  One thing that hasn’t been brought up is the Klein contract.  I know that $6M (3/$18M) isn’t huge money in the NFL, but I think they’re covering themselves in case they can’t keep Milano.  Or maybe they have accepted that they won’t be able to keep him.  I dunno.  I’d need an honest talk with Beane to know that.  If Milano is extended, then I’d expect Klein to be one and done here though.  Teams don’t usually pay their third LB even that much.  I guess we shall see how it plays out. 

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1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:


Agree on Milano, but Tre has no reason not to do an extension now if he wants to stay here.  Elite players aren’t taking discounts due to the (probable) cap dip next season.  My bet is now that Dawkins is done Tre will be next up. 
 

I’d like to see the Bills find a way to keep Milano, but I don’t know that they are planning on it.  One thing that hasn’t been brought up is the Klein contract.  I know that $6M (3/$18M) isn’t huge money in the NFL, but I think they’re covering themselves in case they can’t keep Milano.  Or maybe they have accepted that they won’t be able to keep him.  I dunno.  I’d need an honest talk with Beane to know that.  If Milano is extended, then I’d expect Klein to be one and done here though.  Teams don’t usually pay their third LB even that much.  I guess we shall see how it plays out. 

I think Tre gets done after this season. He’ll play next season on his 5th year, and if they come up with a new deal, it might even replace the 5th year option. No need to rush it. They’re taking a patient approach to make sure all their ducks are in a row. Have faith in Beane’s math skills. 

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37 minutes ago, Dkollidas said:

I think Tre gets done after this season. He’ll play next season on his 5th year, and if they come up with a new deal, it might even replace the 5th year option. No need to rush it. They’re taking a patient approach to make sure all their ducks are in a row. Have faith in Beane’s math skills. 


While it’s not a problem for Tre to get his deal done after the season there are advantages to getting it done early:

- a bit of a discount on his contract in exchange for more cash earlier
- freeing up some cap space in the 2020-2021 block which could help with a lowered cap in 2021

- improved clarity regarding what can be done for other players like Milano

- heading off the possibility of any problems with him

 

It's important for the Bills to engage with him and his agent now (and I’m sure they have) even if a deal does not happen right away.  The main reason a deal would not be reached soon is if Tre is trying to maximize his contract and is willing to wait to do that.  If so, that’s fine.  I am sure the Bills would keep in touch and that they let him know that they’re willing to deal now or later. 

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2 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:


While it’s not a problem for Tre to get his deal done after the season there are advantages to getting it done early:

- a bit of a discount on his contract in exchange for more cash earlier
- freeing up some cap space in the 2020-2021 block which could help with a lowered cap in 2021

- improved clarity regarding what can be done for other players like Milano

- heading off the possibility of any problems with him

 

It's important for the Bills to engage with him and his agent now (and I’m sure they have) even if a deal does not happen right away.  The main reason a deal would not be reached soon is if Tre is trying to maximize his contract and is willing to wait to do that.  If so, that’s fine.  I am sure the Bills would keep in touch and that they let him know that they’re willing to deal now or later. 

 

I would bet good money that Tre and his agent have almost zero interest in getting a deal done this year. And that is the major, and only, hold up.

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1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I would bet good money that Tre and his agent have almost zero interest in getting a deal done this year. And that is the major, and only, hold up.


Yup.  If it doesn’t get done this offseason, it’s nearly 100% that it’s due to Tre’s side.  I couldn’t begin to speak to his actual thoughts on it.  Sometimes a lot of what is said is just posturing.  I don’t blame a player for betting on himself and trying to maximize his contract, but it would be nice to see it get done soon. 

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Would we get a comp pick if we let Milano walk? Turn a 5th round pick into a 3rd round pick

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On 8/14/2020 at 2:28 PM, LeviF91 said:

 

For context, $14M salary this year would make Milano the 12th highest paid LB in the league.  Even excluding guys on their rookie deals still, Milano is not close to being the 12th best LB in the league.

But in terms of value to a team, he is close to it. The Bills system is one of the most LB dependent in the entire league 

2 hours ago, uticaclub said:

Would we get a comp pick if we let Milano walk? Turn a 5th round pick into a 3rd round pick

Only if you release more qualifying FAs than you sign. So you'd need to release a lot more players than just Milano 

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1 hour ago, Mountain Man said:

But in terms of value to a team, he is close to it. The Bills system is one of the most LB dependent in the entire league 

Only if you release more qualifying FAs than you sign. So you'd need to release a lot more players than just Milano 

 

And depends the value of what Milano signs for elsewhere. The likelihood is it would be a 3rd. But if the Bills do their usual stacking of oline and dline depth in free agency and some of those guys make the roster then it cancels out.

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Milano if I had to guess should be in the range of 8 to 9 million if he takes an extension now (the discount of certainty) if he turns in a strong season and hits the market I can see him getting a 10 to 11 million dollar deal. Overall I think with Dawkins signed the team can afford to play somewhat tight with Milano.

 

Name a price you feel comfortable with (a modest amount relativey speaking) and let him and his agent decide if it makes sense for him or if they want to hit the open market.

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