On the topic or extensions and contracts. Who’s next, and when?

[BillsFan692]

14 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Edmunds needs to be the next priority

There is no way edmunds could be up for contract already, is there? Seems too soon for that guy.

[Mr. WEO]

Why include Beane in the list? 
 

They can pay him anytime any amount.  Won’t matter.  

[bigK14094]

Bean doesn't count in the cap......that will get done in good course, and the Pegs won't be cheap about it.  So, timing discussion wrt Bean is meaningless.  Players are in the cap, not management and coaches.

[IgotBILLStopay]

20 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The Bills have a ton of incentive to sign Tre now. His price isn’t dropping. The price that the Bills could get Tre for now is the lowest it will be.

 

I think you are misunderstanding what I am saying and are actually making my argument. The *only* reason for the Bills to sign Tre early is if they get a discount. They are in no danger of losing Tre to another team because of the 5th year option. So in effect, you are agreeing with me that other than getting a discount, there is no reason for the Bills to extend Tre early.

 

That discount is the reason I was expecting a contract south of 18 mill AAV if Tre is signed early. When you expect a 20 mill AAV for Tre, was that after the discount or was that fair AAV? If 20 mill is fair AAV, why should Bills extend him now? With the cap expected to decline next year, they can wait.

Edited August 14, 2020 by IgotBILLStopay

[IgotBILLStopay]

20 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

They absolutely will and should make him the highest paid CB when he signs, the question is whether his agent will wait until after those other guys - slay, Ramsay, Lattimore, sign or not. 

I think when they sign him will factor into the price. If he were an impending free agent, the signing price will be different than if he is safely under contract for additional years. If the Bills offer Tre 20 mill AAV, he will sign today. There are so many uncertainties with injuries etc. Slay, Jones etc. were free agents. Tre is not.

 

That being said, I dont disagree that even if he signs now, he will command 80-85 mill over 5 years which will be close to the record.  He is that good.The only debate was whether he will get 100 mill if extended this  offseason and I doubt that.

 

(see above post as well)

[BarleyNY]

18 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

 

I think you are misunderstanding what I am saying and are actually making my argument. The *only* reason for the Bills to sign Tre early is if they get a discount. They are in no danger of losing Tre to another team because of the 5th year option. So in effect, you are agreeing with me that other than getting a discount, there is no reason for the Bills to extend Tre early.

 

That discount is the reason I was expecting a contract south of 18 mill AAV if Tre is signed early. When you expect a 20 mill AAV for Tre, was that after the discount or was that fair AAV? If 20 mill is fair AAV, why should Bills extend him now? With the cap expected to decline next year, they can wait.

I do not see a one year decline in the cap having a big impact on long term contracts of elite players like Tre.  The mid tier players will bear the brunt of that.  But I definitely agree with you that we’d get a discount signing him now versus waiting.  What those numbers are  going to be can be debated, but a player getting a large chunk of cash up front as well as additional guarantees justifies some discount.

[Kirby Jackson]

You have nose tackles getting $17.5M a year!! I’ll be really surprised if/when Tre signs his extension of its let’s than $20M AAV. 

[BarleyNY]

7 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

You have nose tackles getting $17.5M a year!! I’ll be really surprised if/when Tre signs his extension of its let’s than $20M AAV. 

This isn’t as crazy as it looks.  Kenny Clark isn’t your usual one dimensional run stuffing NT who comes off the field in passing downs.  He is a three down NT/DT who’s forte is providing an interior pass rush.  That’s what they’re paying for. 

[eball]

24 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I do not see a one year decline in the cap having a big impact on long term contracts of elite players like Tre.  The mid tier players will bear the brunt of that.

 

Temporary declines in the cap never impact the elite players (and rookie deals).  The group of players impacted is always the same -- aging veterans who are now underperforming their contracts and highly paid backups.  Both will be replaced by rookies and guys looking for "prove it" deals.

[Kirby Jackson]

30 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

This isn’t as crazy as it looks.  Kenny Clark isn’t your usual one dimensional run stuffing NT who comes off the field in passing downs.  He is a three down NT/DT who’s forte is providing an interior pass rush.  That’s what they’re paying for. 

Oh I know but that’s still insane. He’s primarily a run stuffer that gets some pressure. He had 15 pressures and 6 sacks in each of the last 2 years. Clark isn’t exactly Aaron Donald. He’s a really good player but he’s not a superstar and doesn’t play a prime position. Now maybe they expect him to continue growing as a pass rusher but he has to if he’s going to justify that deal. 

18 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Temporary declines in the cap never impact the elite players (and rookie deals).  The group of players impacted is always the same -- aging veterans who are now underperforming their contracts and highly paid backups.  Both will be replaced by rookies and guys looking for "prove it" deals.

This is exactly right. The guys in trouble with a cap decline are guys like Spencer Long, AJ Klein, & Ty Nsekhe. It’s depth veterans or fringe starters. The best players don’t get squeezed.

[IgotBILLStopay]

48 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

You have nose tackles getting $17.5M a year!! I’ll be really surprised if/when Tre signs his extension of its let’s than $20M AAV. 

1. KC is not just any NT. He is the one of the best run stoppers in the league. 

2.More importantly he is the best interior pass disruptor from the 3-4 NT position. Bills fans know Ted Washington as one of the better pocket collapsing NTs but Ted never got more than 4.5 sacks in any season and totaled 34.5 sacks for his whole career which was considered fantastic for a 3-4 NT. KC has 6 sacks in each of the last two years- and again out of a 3-4 NT space eater position!!!

3. He is now widely considered, similar to Donald, Mack, Watt and Miller, the prototype for that position. That is way more than just being the best player at the position.

4. And, unlike Tre he is a 2016 draftee playing on a 5th year option this year.

5. this is not to piss on Tre’s abilities at all- i consider him an elite talent - if he is willing to wait till next offseason give him the money by all means. Bills take on huge risks in extending a player to big bucks with 2 yrs left (see Gurley).

[machine gun kelly]

For the arguments just brought up, I see against the cap Milano getting his deal, and if you take this year along with his value, a $10.8 mil. hit over five years as an avg.  White will probably come next year as yes we have the 5th year and we can also tag him for two years so no rush.  He’s going to get elite CB $ no matter what and he deserves it.  Beane will probably happen very soon and tied to McD’s extension as everyone and their brother has stated he doesn’t count against the cap.

 

We then have time for Edmunds, Allen, and can evaluate what or if we need to pay Hyde or Poyer in a couple of years.  The 9der guys will fade away eventually like Hughes, Murphy, Star, and Norman.  Norman could be resigned next year if he plays well, but he’ll never get star power $ again.

[IgotBILLStopay]

23 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Oh I know but that’s still insane. He’s primarily a run stuffer that gets some pressure. He had 15 pressures and 6 sacks in each of the last 2 years. Clark isn’t exactly Aaron Donald. He’s a really good player but he’s not a superstar and doesn’t play a prime position. Now maybe they expect him to continue growing as a pass rusher but he has to if he’s going to justify that deal. 

This is exactly right. The guys in trouble with a cap decline are guys like Spencer Long, AJ Klein, & Ty Nsekhe. It’s depth veterans or fringe starters. The best players don’t get squeezed.

Donald is a 3-tech. KC is an NT. can’t compare stats between the two. kinda like ed oliver’s sack total coming outa college. Ed Oliver won the Outland trophy (best lineman in college) in 2017 with just 5.5 sacks since he played NT.

[machine gun kelly]

God bless the draft and the FA strategy to get good players, but not overpay for high priced free agents.  That’s why I’ve always been against the Clowney argument and I guess so has 31 other teams.

[Kirby Jackson]

20 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Donald is a 3-tech. KC is an NT. can’t compare stats between the two. kinda like ed oliver’s sack total coming outa college. Ed Oliver won the Outland trophy (best lineman in college) in 2017 with just 5.5 sacks since he played NT.

I know the difference. That’s my point. You don’t pay that kind of money for a NT. You do for a 3 technique that disrupts the passing game. That’s not Clark. He’s a very good player but I’d take DJ Reader at 4 years and $53M over Kenny Clark at 4 years and $70M all day. The NT market has been reset though (clearly).
 

Oliver should have never played NT at Houston. He was like 285 lbs. He won the Outland Trophy in 2017 because of how dominant he was in 2016. He had as good of a freshman season as just about anyone ever. It is the same reason that Grant Delpit won the Thorpe award this year. He wasn’t even the best DB (and maybe not the 2nd best DB) on his own team!! It’s reputation. 

Edited August 16, 2020 by Kirby Jackson

[NoSaint]

On 8/13/2020 at 5:12 PM, BarleyNY said:

I can’t imagine why you think that.  He’s shown flashes to be sure and his upside is huge, but he’s got to clean up a lot too.  He’s missed run fits and coverage assignments too often to really commit to long term.  He’s young and that can certainly all come together in the next season or two.  Then he should get extended or a new deal. 
 

Oh, I haven’t even mentioned that he is not even eligible to have his deal extended until after this season is over.  So there’s that. 

he’s the much rarer specimen between the LBs. Milano as a body type and skill set is easier to find. Edmunds rangy body and athleticism would be very difficult to replicate.

[IgotBILLStopay]

16 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I know the difference. That’s my point. You don’t pay that kind of money for a NT. You do for a 3 technique that disrupts the passing game. That’s not Clark. He’s a very good player but I’d take DJ Reader at 4 years and $53M over Kenny Clark at 4 years and $70M all day. The NT market has been reset though (clearly).
 

Oliver should have never played NT at Houston. He was like 285 lbs. He won the Outland Trophy in 2017 because of how dominant he was in 2016. He had as good of a freshman season as just about anyone ever. It the same reason that Grant Delpit won the Thorpe award this year. He wasn’t even the best DB (and maybe not the 2nd best DB) on his own team!! It’s reputation. 

OK man. 

[May Day 10]

Is milano, white, Edmunds , and allen all possible?

Edited August 16, 2020 by May Day 10

[machine gun kelly]

May Day, two words, Kansas City.  Look how creative they managed their cap to extend so many key players.  Beane not against the cap and Milano would be next.  White already has the 5th year option out there and the following year Edmunds or Allen can also be placed on this list so you have three years to retain all of them if that is what they want to do.  It is doable, and mid level players may not make it or aging players.  Aging is the key.  They will need to replace in the draft guys getting older like eventually (not in 2020 necessarily). We’ll eventually find replacements for Hughes, Murphy, Kroft, Star, and so on.  You also don’t know down the road how many of the D Lineman will he kept of the crew that was brought in this year.

 

I can see them trading out for other good role players, protecting the stars, and drafting well.  The future is going to end up being prove it deals for several free agents, amd not the Clowney type who want monster $.  Beane has proven that with letting guys like Dareus, Watkins, Gilmore and other go.  

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, May Day 10 said:

Is milano, white, Edmunds , and allen all possible?

Of those four the really interesting one has got to be Josh Allen. I’d be curious to hear where people would slot him right now. I know it’s early, but for sake of discussion let’s say his next two seasons look like his last two.