Gunner's roster thread.... 2020 style - UPDATED

[YattaOkasan]

Only change from me is Roberts to Blue. I could see McKenzie taking away his role. Not sure of Roberts contract though. 
 

great work as always Gunner 

[Just Joshin']

4 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Only change from me is Roberts to Blue. I could see McKenzie taking away his role. Not sure of Roberts contract though. 
 

great work as always Gunner 

Disagree - Roberts is the superior returner for both kickoffs and punts.  McKenzie is better at the gadget plays but can be replaced by others on the roster.  Roberts would be harder to replace.

[TigerJ]

I think that the only way Josh Norman doesn't make the team is if he shows he physically can't handle the demands of the cornerback position anymore.

[MasterStrategist]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

So this is a thread I do every year - usually at the end of mini camp and then it plays out through camp and pre-season. Obviously the timing is influenced this year by covid and the situation, but here is my roster thread. 

 

Key:

 

BLACK - Lock for the roster if healthy

BLUE - Likely to make it if healthy but not a lock

RED - Fighting for a spot

 

Note: Red does not mean no chance... it means fighting for a spot. Every year people get that wrong. 

 

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen

Matt Barkley

Jake Fromm

Davis Webb

 

Running backs

Zack Moss

Devin Singletary

Patrick DiMarco FB

Reggie Gilliam FB

Taiwan Jones

Christian Wade (Int.)

T. J. Yeldon

 

Wide receivers

Stefon Diggs

Cole Beasley

John Brown

Gabriel Davis

Andre Roberts

Robert Foster

Isaiah Hodgins

Isaiah McKenzie

Duke Williams

Nick Easley

 

Tight ends

Dawson Knox

Lee Smith

Tyler Kroft

Tommy Sweeney

Nate Becker

Jason Croom

 

Offensive line

Dion Dawkins

Jon Feliciano*

Cody Ford

Mitch Morse

Quinton Spain

Ty Nsekhe

Brian Winters

Daryl Williams

Ryan Bates

Trey Adams

Evan Boehm

Ike Boettger

Victor Salako

Brandon Walton 

Marquel Harrell 

 

Defensive line

Mario Addison

Vernon Butler

A. J. Epenesa

Jerry Hughes

Quinton Jefferson

Ed Oliver

Harrison Phillips

Darryl Johnson

Trent Murphy

Mike Love

Niles Scott

Vincent Taylor

Bryan Cox Jr.

 

Linebackers

A. J. Klein

Tremaine Edmunds

Matt Milano

Tyler Matakevich

Tyrel Dodson

Vosean Joseph

Del'Shawn Phillips

Corey Thompson

 

Corner

Taron Johnson

Levi Wallace

Tre'Davious White

Josh Norman

Siran Neal

Dane Jackson

Cam Lewis

Ike Brown

 

Safety

Micah Hyde

Jordan Poyer

Jaquan Johnson

Dean Marlowe

Josh Thomas

 

Specialists

Reid Ferguson

Steven Hauschka 

Tyler Bass

Corey Bojorquez

Kaare Vedvik

 

Conclusion

That gives me 31/53 locks and a further 12 who I think more than likely make it. That takes you to 43, and when you add in a punter (both in red at the moment but one of them or someone not currently on the roster will be there to punt) you get to 44 spots locked up. That mean you have 9 remaining roster spots to be fought for. Of those, they are all but certain to keep a 3rd running back, an 8th DL and at least a 5th linebacker and 5th corner. Then you have 5 spots that are genuine competitions and where it will come down to the positions they feel they need proven depth and the spots where they think they can get by worth having extra guys on the PS and calling them up for game day under the new rules. There could be an additional offensive line spot available at the start of the year as Feliciano is asterisked due to the known injury. If he starts the year on IR then another olineman will make it, and to be honest even if he doesn't they likely carry a 9th so that they can ride with Feliciano inactive for the first 3 or 4 weeks. 

Thanks for the great post!

 

My thoughts by position:

QB

I would put Fromm as a lock...be shocked if the team cuts a 5th round rookie, especially at a position that takes time/patience to develop.  

 

Rb

I would be tempted to put Dimarco as a lock, but can understand anyone who disagrees.  Jones or Yeldon makes the team, but id say it is more likely to be Yeldon based on familiarity in the offense. 

 

Wr

Along with oline, this will be the most criticized decision.  I agree with your locks, and likely we keep 1 more player.  I think Foster had a lot going on at the beginning of last season, and didn't get off on the "right foot", he'd be my pick to keep

 

OL

Agree with locks, would add your 3 'blues' to locks.  I could argue all 3 of these guys could start, and 1 likely will (Winters), leaving other 2 as top backups.  I like Bates the best from the others, given his versatility and showed well in his limited time.  I think we keep 9 OL, if Feliciano isn't IRed, tough decision on the last guy

 

DL

Harrison is a lock, he is either active or if not healed will be IRed.  If anything Dirty Harry's unknown might prompt them to keep a spot for big Vince.  Otherwise I see 8 guys, with Murphy being the 8th (but would be happy if they could shed the cap of Trent and feel like they are getting a similar player in Daryl).

 

LB

Makavaetich is a lock, he was signed away from the Steelers to be our new ST core player (great replacement for Zo).  I think Corey is a "likely", then it comes down to Dodson vs Joseph for the last spot.

 

CB

Biggest gripe of the list....No clue how you have Norman as a "likely", he is a surefire lock.  Neal is "very likely", id put him as a lock.  Then personal bias toward Dane Jackson making the team, watching him play high school and college ball, he is going to be a good player for us.

 

S

I agree with this, Marlowe would be my choice as well

 

K/P

Id put Hauscka in the same category as Bass...so going by your prior comments, both should be red.  Im 60/40 toward Bass winning the job, but not going to be unhappy either way.  I think Bojo keeps his starting job, but agree he is competing and not a lock

 

Tha ks again, well thought out as always

[YattaOkasan]

1 hour ago, Just Joshin' said:

Disagree - Roberts is the superior returner for both kickoffs and punts.  McKenzie is better at the gadget plays but can be replaced by others on the roster.  Roberts would be harder to replace.

Clearly Roberts was the superior returner but McKenzie was the better weapon on offense. McKenzie has also demonstrated the punt return performance that Roberts put out last year (His rookie year of 8.7 yards per return on 21 returns to 8.0 yards per return). Roberts is getting older and I think McKenzie is the shiftier of the two.  To me the Black was the no way he doesn’t make the team and I see competition at this spot. I said Blue so I still think Roberts makes the team but I don’t see it as on the team barring injury case. 

3 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

I think that the only way Josh Norman doesn't make the team is if he shows he physically can't handle the demands of the cornerback position anymore.

I think that’s not an unlikely scenario. Hence Blue. 

2 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

QB

I would put Fromm as a lock...be shocked if the team cuts a 5th round rookie, especially at a position that takes time/patience to develop.  

Fromm’s stock is very low across the league. I think the Bills feel pretty safe that putting him on the PS would still give him time to develop. And a 5th round pick is not a lock. 

[Jay_Fixit]

Does Red mean no chance?

[MasterStrategist]

8 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Clearly Roberts was the superior returner but McKenzie was the better weapon on offense. McKenzie has also demonstrated the punt return performance that Roberts put out last year (His rookie year of 8.7 yards per return on 21 returns to 8.0 yards per return). Roberts is getting older and I think McKenzie is the shiftier of the two.  To me the Black was the no way he doesn’t make the team and I see competition at this spot. I said Blue so I still think Roberts makes the team but I don’t see it as on the team barring injury case. 

I think that’s not an unlikely scenario. Hence Blue. 

Fromm’s stock is very low across the league. I think the Bills feel pretty safe that putting him on the PS would still give him time to develop. And a 5th round pick is not a lock. 

Any other position than Qb, and I would agree.  Not even arguing the merits of Fromm, but this team isn't wasting a 5th rounder on a developmental position and cutting said player in year 1.  Add that to Beanes prior comments about Fromm and we will see what happens

[MJS]

23 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Fromm’s stock is very low across the league. I think the Bills feel pretty safe that putting him on the PS would still give him time to develop. And a 5th round pick is not a lock. 

I think Fromm would get snatched pretty quickly if he is placed on the practice squad. Teams are going to be looking for more QB's than usual this year due to COVID-19 concerns.

 

His stock is low in the media. That's about it.

[YattaOkasan]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

I think Fromm would get snatched pretty quickly if he is placed on the practice squad. Teams are going to be looking for more QB's than usual this year due to COVID-19 concerns.

 

His stock is low in the media. That's about it.

He didn’t get drafted til the 5th so I’m not sure his stock is too high. 

1 hour ago, MasterStrategist said:

Any other position than Qb, and I would agree.  Not even arguing the merits of Fromm, but this team isn't wasting a 5th rounder on a developmental position and cutting said player in year 1.  Add that to Beanes prior comments about Fromm and we will see what happens

I actually don’t think they are letting him go by cutting him. Consensus seems to be that there will be less claiming of players across the league so they should be able to stash him (if there is a team I’m worried about claiming him it’s the pats if Newton gets hurt ?). There’s also not a preseason to evaluate if he’s any good.  Lastly I’m confused why they are so committed to him when they really had no expectation of drafting him or any QB this year. 

[Locomark]

6 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Good starting point!

 

I'd make the following changes:

 

Taiwan Jones black for ST play

Hodkins and McKenzie blue as likely one of them will make the roster

Sweeney also blue

Isn't there some new rule this season that you have to carry 9 offensive lineman?

Johnson and Murphy blue as one of them will likely make

Think I'd also change Vosean Joseph to blue as at least one more LB makes the roster

I'd make Norman black and Dane Jackson blue

Think Marlowe is black

I'd make both punters blue as one of them makes it and make Bass and Hauschka both blue as again one of them makes it

 

That would put me exactly at 53 counting all the blacks and blues I added

 

I like this above. Plus if this wasn’t a covid year I would question DiMarco making it. I still think if he is forced to miss time due to covid and that kid FB is on the practice squad comes in and does anything at all that DiMarco is toast. 

[MJS]

2 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

He didn’t get drafted til the 5th so I’m not sure his stock is too high. 

5th round rookie is better than a lot of undrafted guys that get put on the practice squad.

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, Locomark said:

I like this above. Plus if this wasn’t a covid year I would question DiMarco making it. I still think if he is forced to miss time due to covid and that kid FB is on the practice squad comes in and does anything at all that DiMarco is toast. 

 

That is why I have him only in blue. I think this team will carry a full back, but there is just a chance that the rook could nick the job. Outside chance but a chance. 

[machine gun kelly]

15 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I agree with most of this.  

 

Couple notes:  

1. I would have put TJ Yeldon in Blue as I think he likely makes the roster.   They obviously wont keep just 2 RB's when one is a rookie.  They tend to want to bring rookies along at a slower pace, and while I am certain Moss likely starts week 1 as Devin's backup, I still think they will want a veteran in that room given Devin still only has one season under his belt with this being a no preseason and COVID impacted camp.  
2. I think I would swap Sweeney and Smith in the red and blue.  I think Sweeney showed enough last year to have a leg up on Lee who doesn't offer much outside of blocking and has struggled with penalties while in Buffalo.  Especially with Kroft healthy and being their as a vet presence around Knox and Sweeney.
3. Harrison Phillips is a Lock, especially with Star opting out.  He was our best DT before getting hurt last year, and they love this guy.  I wouldn't have him in Blue

Outside of that, I would have put the list together the same everywhere else.  

GB, I echo what Alpha said although they’ve kept 4 TE’s in the past so the ? to me is whether Croom or Smith get the 4th spot.  I haven’t seen much from Croom so don’t have an opinion, but would prefer Croom if he plays well as I’ve seen enough on Smith to know I’d rather not have him on the team.

[eball]

As much as I agree with Gunner’s comments about how coaches love blocking TEs, I really feel like Lee Smith is a wasted roster spot because when he is in the game that’s one less skill position for defenses to worry about.

[JMF2006]

15 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’d bump Taiwan to blue for special teams reasons.  McKenzie to blue. Sweeney to blue and Smith to red.  Winters to black. Harrison Phillips to black. Siran Neal to blue (or even black) and Marlowe to red. Hauschka to red.

 

I agree T Jones was the ST gunner last year and Mckittrick was a steady performer despite his size.

 

I think House Money was fighting through a groin injury last year and  if he is healthy he could return to form. 

15 minutes ago, eball said:

As much as I agree with Gunner’s comments about how coaches love blocking TEs, I really feel like Lee Smith is a wasted roster spot because when he is in the game that’s one less skill position for defenses to worry about.

 

I agree.

 

If you need more blocking a tackle eligible makes more sense ....it gives the D something to think about...the whole world knows Lee Smith has hands of stone.

[ExWNYer]

10 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

LB

Makavaetich is a lock, he was signed away from the Steelers to be our new ST core player (great replacement for Zo).  I think Corey is a "likely", then it comes down to Dodson vs Joseph for the last spot.

 

 

I agree on Matakevich. He was signed for his Special Teams prowess, plain and simple. He is listed by position as a LB but he will give them next to nothing there. That's a 'break glass in case of emergency' situation. His deal is for two years rather than the typical one year Beane deal and he is getting $3.45 million guaranteed. He will have to be a complete train wreck to not make the roster.

[SoCal Deek]

Gunner: Very good analysis. I’m sure there’s a marker board at OBD that looks almost identical to your list. The only thing lacking is actually buried in your written analysis. The red players are not picked in a vacuum. The coaching staff knows exactly how many players they want to keep at each roster spot (RB, OL, etc). The variable always ends up being known lagging injuries and special teams prowess. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

9 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

He didn’t get drafted til the 5th so I’m not sure his stock is too high. 

I actually don’t think they are letting him go by cutting him. Consensus seems to be that there will be less claiming of players across the league so they should be able to stash him (if there is a team I’m worried about claiming him it’s the pats if Newton gets hurt ?). There’s also not a preseason to evaluate if he’s any good.  Lastly I’m confused why they are so committed to him when they really had no expectation of drafting him or any QB this year. 

 

I agree with you about much less roster churn this year after final cut down day, however QB likely is the one exception as plenty of tape on him.  There's also plenty of college tape on him and as was mentioned add in the Covid concerns, think he'd get snatched.  Wouldn't be shocked if many more teams carry 3 QB's this season than other years.  One of his strengths is smarts, weakness arm strength to some degree.  In the Covid era, having a QB who can learn the offense quickly would help.

 

To your last question why did they draft him, likely the answer is they never expected him to drop that far so by taking him, they just likely signed Barkley's replacement for next season when his contract runs out.

[YattaOkasan]

7 hours ago, MJS said:

5th round rookie is better than a lot of undrafted guys that get put on the practice squad.

Yeah most definitely but were talking about roster locks.  They have a 80% likelihood of making the roster across the league.  So thats a really good chance but not a lock imo so thats why I would have him in blue.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 hour ago, eball said:

As much as I agree with Gunner’s comments about how coaches love blocking TEs, I really feel like Lee Smith is a wasted roster spot because when he is in the game that’s one less skill position for defenses to worry about.

 

1 hour ago, JMF2006 said:

 

I agree T Jones was the ST gunner last year and Mckittrick was a steady performer despite his size.

 

I think House Money was fighting through a groin injury last year and  if he is healthy he could return to form. 

 

I agree.

 

If you need more blocking a tackle eligible makes more sense ....it gives the D something to think about...the whole world knows Lee Smith has hands of stone.

 

I agree with your comments about TE, I'd much prefer to see them keep Sweeney over Smith and think if Sweeney shows any sign of improvement that will happen.

 

The only thing that may keep Smith around is his veteran leadership.  They did lose a couple other vets in other areas, Gore, Alexander, Murphy may be gone.  But on the other hand a guy like Tyler Kroft has been around 4 or 5 seasons now so becoming a vet and also getting to the point you want guys like Edmunds and Allan to become the leaders which is tougher to do when you have guys like Smith and Gore on the team.  Maybe it comes down to you keep either Smith or DeMarco for leadership?

 

 

6 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Yeah most definitely but were talking about roster locks.  They have a 80% likelihood of making the roster across the league.  So thats a really good chance but not a lock imo so thats why I would have him in blue.

 

80% in general but for QB's and with his resume, I'd bump that up higher.  I'd be very surprised if he were not picked up by another team if released.

Edited August 13, 2020 by Ed_Formerly_of_Roch