Voluntary Opt outs

[HappyDays]

7 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

Are you saying that the science on the novel coronavirus is proven? 

 

Furthermore, are you saying "catastrophic" deaths? Or "catastrophic" cases without the shutdown? 

 

I am saying through epidemiology we know that letting the virus run naturally through the population would be catastrophic. That is not even up for debate. Catastrophe doesn't just mean deaths. It means the healthcare system gets overwhelmed like what happened in NYC at the peak. Obviously not every region would experience the same peak but many areas would become catastrophes.

8 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

we still don't have a realistic picture of the death rate of this thing. If it had gone unchecked in society we would have seen it spread, obviously, but we don't know what the death picture would look like because even now we're seeing studies that show the death rate is substantially lower than what is being reported due to unreported cases. 

 

Right, we don't know the exact death rate. That is an argument in my favor. We can't let a virus run rampant when we don't know exactly what it will do. As it stands there have been over 150,000 confirmed deaths and over 300,000 hospitalizations in the USA (obviously there is some overlap with those two figures). That is with the restrictions that we implemented before it really got out of control. We don't know the death rate but we know that what we've seen is the floor of what the virus could do.

10 minutes ago, mannc said:

The governor’s discussion of herd immunity is way off.  Many experts believe effective herd immunity with this virus is 20% or below, not 40 or 80%.

 

And you are vastly overstating the extent to which lockdowns are a proven scientific technique for controlling viruses.  They had never been done before on anything close to this scale, and for good reason.  Prior to CV 19, the CDC had recommended against such measures as a method of combatting viruses like this one.

 

Can you source either of those claims? How would 20% achieve herd immunity?

[Warcodered]

4 minutes ago, mannc said:

The governor’s discussion of herd immunity is way off.  Many experts believe effective herd immunity with this virus is 20% or below, not 40 or 80%.

Not sure where you're getting that number though I have a guess.

But sure let's give you that. That still means 1.5X the number of cases on their worst day for a year...that's not good.

[mannc]

50 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I am saying through epidemiology we know that letting the virus run naturally through the population would be catastrophic. That is not even up for debate. Catastrophe doesn't just mean deaths. It means the healthcare system gets overwhelmed like what happened in NYC at the peak. Obviously not every region would experience the same peak but many areas would become catastrophes.

 

Right, we don't know the exact death rate. That is an argument in my favor. We can't let a virus run rampant when we don't know exactly what it will do. As it stands there have been over 150,000 confirmed deaths and over 300,000 hospitalizations in the USA (obviously there is some overlap with those two figures). That is with the restrictions that we implemented before it really got out of control. We don't know the death rate but we know that what we've seen is the floor of what the virus could do.

 

Can you source either of those claims? How would 20% achieve herd immunity?

There is a ton of stuff out there on herd immunity at 20% or lower.  This article cites one such study and explains why it may be lower than previously thought

 

.https://www.northsidesun.com/herd-immunity#sthash.WsvtUqBU.dpbs

[HappyDays]

25 minutes ago, mannc said:

There is a ton of stuff out there on herd immunity at 20% or lower.  This article cites one such study and explains why it may be lower than previously thought

 

.https://www.northsidesun.com/herd-immunity#sthash.WsvtUqBU.dpbs

 

The way that article describes the study is blatant misinformation.

 

The linked study is saying that to know what percentage would be needed for herd immunity, you would need to measure the variation of susceptibility in the population. As in different people have different probabilities of getting infected, and that variation in the probability would have to be factored in to the equation.

 

The study does not make the claim that herd immunity would be obtained at 10-20%. It says that assuming the best case scenario of susceptibility variation, herd immunity would be obtained at 10%. It does not claim that the best case scenario is reality. It says measures of individual variation are needed to find out for sure.

 

Here's an article on a more recent study that sought to do exactly that:

 

https://www.newsweek.com/herd-immunity-threshold-covid-19-could-just-43-percent-1512978

 

Their most optimistic prediction is 43%. We can't wait for anywhere near 43% of our population to catch the virus. That would destroy our health care system.

 

Here's something even more alarming:

 

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/studies-report-rapid-loss-of-covid-19-antibodies-67650

 

One of the studies found that 10 percent of nearly 1,500 COVID-positive patients registered undetectable antibody levels within weeks of first showing symptoms, while the other of 74 patients found they typically lost their antibodies two to three months after recovering from the infection, especially among those who tested positive but were asymptomatic.

 

researchers compared the immune responses of 37 asymptomatic but positive patients to an equal number with severe symptoms living in the Wanzhou District in China. They found that asymptomatic individuals reacted less strongly to infection, with 40 percent having undetectable levels of protective antibodies in the two to three months after the infection compared to 13 percent of the symptomatic patients.

 

So there is recent evidence that many carriers, especially asymptomatic ones, are losing their immunity in matter of weeks or months. That would ruin the potential for herd immunity to be reached at the requisite level.

 

The big takeaway here is we don't really know anything for sure. We're researching this thing fast as we can but it would be grossly irresponsible to reopen the entire country without mandates until we know it is safe to do so.

[Mr. K]

I'm lazy. Whats going to happen to the Covid holdout contracts?

[Chandler#81]

2 minutes ago, Mr. K said:

I'm lazy. Whats going to happen to the Covid holdout contracts?

Folks, there are pinned threads for in-depth discussion on Covid-19 Off The Wall. Mannc derailed this thread from its intent.

That ends now.

 

Covid Voluntary Opt Outs Only.

[Mr. K]

12 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Folks, there are pinned threads for in-depth discussion on Covid-19 Off The Wall. Mannc derailed this thread from its intent.

That ends now.

 

Covid Voluntary Opt Outs Only.

Sorry for interrupting. I figured salary cap implications wouldn't fall under Off The Wall. I was specifically asking because I was curious about Stars' contract. Sorry Gibran didnt make it.

[DCofNC]

11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I guess that must be highly reassuring to all the NFL players who are under the age of 18 right now.

 

We do know that dying is only part of the risk of the disease, Yes? 

Current estimate after adjusting for asymptomatic infections ~6% hospitalizations, and even patients who are not ill enough to require hospitalization may suffer prolonged effects:

 

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/07/research-reveals-heart-complications-covid-19-patients

-100 unselected coronavirus patients identified from the University Hospital Frankfurt COVID-19 Registry

-median age 49 (that means half were younger)

-Cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging revealed heart involvement in 78 patients and active cardiac inflammation in 60

-independent of underlying conditions, disease severity, overall course of illness, and time from diagnosis to CMR

-67 of the patients studied had not required hospitalization for covid-19 disease
Actual study:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916

 

Then there's the US Olympic Rowing team, that collection of elderly couch potatoes:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/24/sports/olympics/coronavirus-us-rowing-olympics.html

"In late March, several days after New Jersey instituted a stay-at-home order as the coronavirus began to ravage parts of the state, Marc Nowak, the team’s physical therapist, tested positive for the virus after experiencing minor cold-like symptoms and promptly reporting them to U.S. Rowing.

In the previous two weeks, Nowak said, he had come into direct contact with “pretty much the whole team” of 33 women during 30-minute physical therapy sessions of hands-on stretching and muscle and joint manipulation. Out of caution — and fortunately for the team — Wenger used one of his office’s limited coronavirus tests to check on his colleague.

One by one, starting four or five days after exposure, rowers began to show symptoms of infection." (....)

Emily Regan, an Olympic gold medalist from Williamsville, N.Y., who was among those infected, wrote a post on Facebook this month highlighting how debilitating the disease could be, even for some of the world’s best athletes who have incredibly powerful and efficient lungs.   “The narrative that has been going around in some places is that you won’t get the virus if you’re young and strong, or if you get it, it won’t be bad, but we’re perfect examples of how that is totally not true,” Regan said. She added: “Look what the virus still did to us. It knocked us down pretty hard.”

The rowers infected ranged in age from 23 to 37, Regan said, and many battled symptoms for weeks. The cases were categorized as mild, though some athletes dealt with complications for as many as 40 days, according to Wenger. None of the rowers required hospitalization, he said.

Regan, 32, said it took her a month to feel back to normal after she fell ill. More than three months later, she is still trying to get back into competitive shape, she said. That level of fitness was extremely high: Regan is a four-time world champion in her ninth year on the national team.

“I’ve never struggled like that before,” she said.

Before we dismiss this as anecdote, the statistics:

-One physical therapist infected

-PT had contact with 33 elite athletes on the team through 30 minute daily PT sessions

-age 23-37 (highly relevant age to NFL football players)

-12 of 33 became infected (36%) with the PT as the most probable contact (elite athletes preparing for olympic trials, not out clubbing or partying)

-0 hospitalizations, 0 deaths, all mild disease

-a number of the athletes reported effects that lingered for weeks/months, returning them to "the level of an average high school girl"

 

Now maybe wearing masks would have prevented transmission - in March, masks weren't being recommended.  Or maybe they won't. 

 

The point is, between the JAMA Cardiology report and the US Rowing Team, it has to be acknowledged that "mild" covid disease that does not result in hospitalization or death can be debilitating to elite athletes. 

 

Maybe Joe Couch Potato and Cubicle Cary wouldn't notice, or would just experience a bit more fatigue carrying in the groceries.  But elite athletes, especially those who are on the bubble...I can see legit cause for concern.

 

 

Yeah, the flu sucks too, nobody shuts down the world for it.  There’s obviously no sense in talking to you about the facts, you have you mind made up that this is bad and that’s that.  

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

The way that article describes the study is blatant misinformation.

 

The linked study is saying that to know what percentage would be needed for herd immunity, you would need to measure the variation of susceptibility in the population. As in different people have different probabilities of getting infected, and that variation in the probability would have to be factored in to the equation.

 

The study does not make the claim that herd immunity would be obtained at 10-20%. It says that assuming the best case scenario of susceptibility variation, herd immunity would be obtained at 10%. It does not claim that the best case scenario is reality. It says measures of individual variation are needed to find out for sure.

 

Here's an article on a more recent study that sought to do exactly that:

 

https://www.newsweek.com/herd-immunity-threshold-covid-19-could-just-43-percent-1512978

 

Their most optimistic prediction is 43%. We can't wait for anywhere near 43% of our population to catch the virus. That would destroy our health care system.

 

Here's something even more alarming:

 

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/studies-report-rapid-loss-of-covid-19-antibodies-67650

 

 

 

 

So there is recent evidence that many carriers, especially asymptomatic ones, are losing their immunity in matter of weeks or months. That would ruin the potential for herd immunity to be reached at the requisite level.

 

The big takeaway here is we don't really know anything for sure. We're researching this thing fast as we can but it would be grossly irresponsible to reopen the entire country without mandates until we know it is safe to do so.

There is no evidence of what you are claiming, just like all viruses, there has been a slight mutation and the antibodies aren’t the same.  Stop being paranoid.

[The Dean]

14 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Yeah, the flu sucks too, nobody shuts down the world for it.  There’s obviously no sense in talking to you about the facts, you have you mind made up that this is bad and that’s that.  

 

 

 

You really are clueless, aren't you?

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Here's something even more alarming:

 

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/studies-report-rapid-loss-of-covid-19-antibodies-67650

 

So there is recent evidence that many carriers, especially asymptomatic ones, are losing their immunity in matter of weeks or months. That would ruin the potential for herd immunity to be reached at the requisite level.

 

Why people still think this is "just flu" after it's filled up the hospitals in city after city in a way flu hasn't done since 1918 is beyond me.  But so it is and no facts or information will change them. 

 

@Chandler#81 has a very valid point about this thread being intended for tracking opt-outs, so on the antibody point let me just re-direct to some information I put up on the covid-19 facts thread and if you have questions about it, be happy to take them on in the discussion thread:

 

[Mango]

1 hour ago, DCofNC said:

Yeah, the flu sucks too, nobody shuts down the world for it.  There’s obviously no sense in talking to you about the facts, you have you mind made up that this is bad and that’s that.  

There is no evidence of what you are claiming, just like all viruses, there has been a slight mutation and the antibodies aren’t the same.  Stop being paranoid.

I can tell you as a friend of Emily’s and a former resident at the Olympic Training Center, the flu does not set you 3 months back in your training. 

[Capco]

4 hours ago, DCofNC said:

Yeah, the flu sucks too, nobody shuts down the world for it.  There’s obviously no sense in talking to you about the facts, you have you mind made up that this is bad and that’s that.  

There is no evidence of what you are claiming, just like all viruses, there has been a slight mutation and the antibodies aren’t the same.  Stop being paranoid.

 

Does the NC in your name refer to North Carolina?

[K-9]

4 hours ago, Capco said:

 

Does the NC in your name refer to North Carolina?

I’m guessing “No Clue.” 

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Capco]

4 hours ago, K-9 said:

I’m guessing “No Clue.” 

Sometimes it’s the same thing.

[Passepartout]

North Carolina or No Clue, or No Cause! It could go either way or all ways.

[YoloinOhio]

 

[cd1]

I count 34 Opt-outs

 

Quote

https://www.nfl.com/news/list-of-nfl-players-to-opt-out-of-2020-season

Here are the NFL players to opt out of the 2020 season so far:

VOLUNTARY OPT-OUTS

 

Baltimore Ravens: KR De'Anthony Thomas, OL Andre Smith

Buffalo Bills: DT Star Lotulelei

Dallas Cowboys: CB Maurice Canady, WR Stephen Guidry

Green Bay Packers: WR Devin Funchess

Houston Texans: DT Eddie Vanderdoes

Kansas City Chiefs: OL Laurent Duvernay-Tardif

New England Patriots: LB Dont'a Hightower, FB Dan Vitale, RB Brandon Bolden, OL Najee Toran

Philadelphia Eagles: WR Marquise Goodwin

 

Seattle Seahawks: OL Chance Warmack

Tennessee Titans: OL Anthony McKinney

HIGHER RISK OPT-OUTS

Los Angeles Rams: OT Chandler Brewer

Minnesota Vikings: DT Michael Pierce

New England Patriots: OL Marcus Cannon

Washington Football Team: DE Caleb Brantley

UNSPECIFIED OPT-OUTS

 

Carolina Panthers: LB Jordan Mack

Chicago Bears: DT Eddie Goldman

Cincinnati Bengals: DT Josh Tupou, OT Isaiah Prince

Cleveland Browns: G Drew Forbes, T Drake Dorbeck

Denver Broncos: DT Kyle Peko

Detroit Lions: DT John Atkins

Jacksonville Jaguars: DT Al Woods

Kansas City Chiefs: RB Damien Williams

 

New England Patriots: S Patrick Chung

New Orleans Saints: TE Jason Vander Laan, TE Cole Wick

New York Giants: OL Nate Solder

New York Jets: OL Leo Koloamatangi

 

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

[plenzmd1]

15 hours ago, cd1 said:

I count 34 Opt-outs  

Denver Broncos: DT Kyle Peko

 

15 hours ago, cd1 said:

 

 

hmmm , Kyle Peko...did his wife have a high risk pregnancy or something last year? Seem to remember something when he was with the bills last year