Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Protocal69

ESPN FUTURE POWER RANKINGS NEXT 3 YEARS BILLS #14

Recommended Posts

34 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

I'm pretty excited about it.

me too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Allen is certainly the main piece that determines our next 3 years, no matter how talented the team is around him.  
 

I do understand why analytics folks make the argument that stats are stats and QB’s are likely who they are after Year 2, so why is Allen “the” exception?

 

Heres why.. (IMO)

 

-Raw coming out of college

-Low talent level around him so far

-Shows the clutch gene & leadership intangibles

-Strong Red Zone efficiency

 

To the point of being raw, he’s made noticeable jumps from year 1 to year 2, and within year 2

 

The low talent level excuse (facing pressure, drops, running game woes etc) is likely removed now by the OL continuity/experience, and addition of Diggs & Moss

 

His criticisms are valid:

 

-Sub 60% completion percentage 

-Stagnant offense that doesn’t score enough

 

I, personally, will be shocked, given the work he puts in and the jumps he’s made so far, if he has deep ball woes like Year 2.   If he does not...if that is fixed... You can realistically add an extra 40-50 YPG to his passing totals and an extra 6-7 PPG to of Offensive Output, at least.   I say “at least”, because if he gets that straightened out, it opens everything else up, and with the talent on this offense, that means Singletary/Moss will eat and the underneath game opens up making other throws easier, which then adds more YPG passing and increases his completion percentage.  
 

If he slows the game down and checks down 1 or 2 times per game (he rarely ever does this) his completion percentage likely goes above 60% just by doing this, independent of anything else.  
 

If he still can’t consistently (relatively speaking) hit the open deep ball, and refuses to pick up easy yardage via checkdowns from time to time, in Year 3, then we have a problem..... but given his size, mobility and arm..... if you believe he corrects that this year.... Allen immediately becomes an upper half of the league QB.  


The reason I reference the Texans Playoff Game so much is because it summarized Josh Allen, so far, to a T.   For 3/4 of that game his talent was on display... Mobility, desire, arm strength etc..  However, the offense went stagnant, the defense struggled, the game got close, Allen’s playmakers let him down multiple times and Allen showed his issues.... Poor decisions, dangerous throws, trying too hard.   Then, at the same time, he almost (should have) won us the game, were it not for a horrible call and a missed block by half our team.   
 

I suspect that game provided valuable growth and learning for Allen, and our entire team, FO included with the moves they made this offseason.  
 

As bullish as I am, I still need to see it to believe it.   New England/Baltimore Allen is not going to cut it in Year 3, and if those games continue, I’ll join in with the Allen-pessimism.   However, if we get more Miami/Dallas in Year 3, we are set up very well for sustained success given the HC/FO and way they set us up with the cap and cornerstone young players.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Billl said:

I agree with the Saints at 10, but I disagree with the Saints at 12.

 

I'd have them lower.  Again this is 3 years out.  No one knows who their QB will be after this season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well Doc, they sure as heck don’t want Winston back there.  I could maybe see Brees coming back in 2021 as he sis till solid, better than Manning in the end, and I loved Manning.  After watching Winston here in Tampa, he will never be good enough to start again. Before people recite last years 30 TD’s, remember the 30 Ints.  He would kill the Bucs so many times and had all the offensive talent he needed as well as excellent offensive coaches and still would make boneheaded decisions.  I know he had eye surgery this spring, but he made bad decisions, not just not seeing the field well.

 

Loomis is going to have to move up to draft a QB next year as they will be at the bottom again due to probably winning the South.  I’m in the minority on the board thinking Brady is Not washed up as he hasn’t since Moss had so many weapons.  Those two teams are going to duke it out this year and if Brady comes back, I can see Brees coming back.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Virgil said:

Hey everyone.  I've been in a bit of a sports hibernation and allowed myself to be lulled into a quarantine slump. 

 

Let me just say, that these future rankings articles are purely opinion, have no relevance to how things will turn out, and are simply something to read in the offseason.  With that being said.....Are you ***** kidding me?!

 

I don't care where the Bills are ranked, but I DO care about the logic behind why they are ranked where they are. 

 

For starters, the Bills have a top 3 defense and there's literally no reason to believe that's going to change.  The Bills have a top 10 WR trio (I'd argue top 3).  They have a lot of talent at RB and I'd say at least a good Offensive Line.  With that being said, the only real question mark to me is if Josh makes the year 3 leap as expected.  With that being said, let's look at the teams ahead of us, and help me understand why they are projecting higher than us

 

1 - Ravens - I'm good here.  Until Lamar gets slowed down, they deserve this.  Personally, I think his decline starts this upcoming season, but that's opinion

2 - Chiefs - Also good here for the next few years, but I think that cap is going to eventually eat them alive and the receivers will want to get paid too

3 - 49ers - Good here.  Solid,  young defense, but 2 years out will be interesting for them with the cap too

4 - Saints - WTF?  You're telling me the Saints will be the same team without Drew Brees?  I'm sorry, but you take Brees off this team, how are the better than the Bills?

5 - Cowboys - Again, WTF?  Are we just assuming this new head coach is going to fix the underperformance issues with this team?  This team was barely a playoff team last year and we stomped them on Thanksgiving.  So again, why are they better than the Bills?

6 - Eagles - I'm sorry, but aren't they going to be in cap hell next year?  They thumped us last season, but 6th overall?  But did I miss why they going to be any better as a team going forward?

7 - Steelers - This one is tough one as you can't evaluate them without Big Ben.  We honestly don't know what that team will look like, besides having a great defense.  Connor is still a mystery and we don't know how that receiving core will be.  Big Ben has indicated he won't be there all 3 years.  With all of that, I'm not sure how they are clear cut ahead of the Bills or 7 overall

8 -Seahawks - I think they should be 4th personally

9 - Tampa - Sorry, but I think Brady is on the decline and there will be bumps with his arm trying to stretch the field.  Brady might not make it both years, and this is a 3 year Power Rank.  I understand the hype, and Brady has owned us, so I'm okay with them being ahead of the Bills

10 - Colts - I'm sorry, but what?  Rivers is good, but he couldn't get the Chargers here, so why is he doing it with the Colts?  Nothing about this teams talent, besides maybe Rivers, looks better than the Bills. 

11 - Titans - They earned this with their Playoff run, but the Bills have been able to shut down Henry and Tannehill.  This is a push to me

12 - Vikings - Again, why?  Cook did finally play a full healthy season.  They lost Diggs.  Just nothing here that is a clear cut improvement over the Bills to me.

13 - Patriots - This one all comes down to the power run game they adapt to and how Cam adapts.  If Cam is healthy, can carry a few times to keep defenses honest and bring up defenders for the passing game....then okay.  And knowing the Hoodie and his luck, it'll probably happen

14 - Bills

 

With that, I have mine as:

1 - Chiefs (The won the superbowl and are returning most of the same team)

2 - Ravens

3 - 49ers

4 - Seahawks

5 - Tampa Bay

6 - Bills

6 - Titans

6 - Patriots

9 - Steelers

10 - Saints

11 - Vikings

12 - Saints

13 - Colts

14 - Eagles

 

The Cowboys are definitely a top 8 team for the next 3 years.... even if we all agree they underachieved last year. One of the most talented rosters of players under 30 and tied up for their best years. People are really focussing too much on the 8-8 last year. It was an under performance but it would be a mistake to think that is their ceiling going forward. 

 

Edit: I think you are too high on the Seahawks. They have arguably the worst combination of offensive and defensive line currently in the NFL. I have Seattle behind Buffalo (though arguably in the same rough category). Buffalo is a really good roster with some questions at Quarterback. Seattle is an elite Quarterback with some really important questions elsewhere on the roster. 

Edited by GunnerBill

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

Well Doc, they sure as heck don’t want Winston back there.  I could maybe see Brees coming back in 2021 as he sis till solid, better than Manning in the end, and I loved Manning.  After watching Winston here in Tampa, he will never be good enough to start again. Before people recite last years 30 TD’s, remember the 30 Ints.  He would kill the Bucs so many times and had all the offensive talent he needed as well as excellent offensive coaches and still would make boneheaded decisions.  I know he had eye surgery this spring, but he made bad decisions, not just not seeing the field well.

 

Loomis is going to have to move up to draft a QB next year as they will be at the bottom again due to probably winning the South.  I’m in the minority on the board thinking Brady is Not washed up as he hasn’t since Moss had so many weapons.  Those two teams are going to duke it out this year and if Brady comes back, I can see Brees coming back.  

 

I thought Brees said this was his last season?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He did bud, but during it out with Brady could change his mind.  If they split and it comes to the wire who wins the division, and even better if they face each other again in the wildcard game as I expect one of them will get one of the three WC spots, he’ll probably change his mind.  Brees is pretty cool guy (not getting into the kneeling thing) and is revered by New Orleans.  If he wants to play, Loomis and Peyton would do anything to get him back.

 

It doesn’t matter how rich the guy has become, $25-30 mil. Can change a person’s mind.  Besides the tv booth for ESPN can wait another year.  Look how good Romo has been in the Booth.  Brees has an instant second career after he retires.  A SB is what he wants and they are so close.  They as a team can still hang with Seattle, SF, Tampa, Packers, Dallas, Philly, and don’t laugh but AZ.  AZ is going to probably be the most improved in the NFC is my guess.  P. Manning hung around until he was practically in a walker to get to the second SB win.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Gugny said:

 

Hey, Virg.

 

I miss your musk

40 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Allen is certainly the main piece that determines our next 3 years, no matter how talented the team is around him.  
 

I do understand why analytics folks make the argument that stats are stats and QB’s are likely who they are after Year 2, so why is Allen “the” exception?

 

Heres why.. (IMO)

 

-Raw coming out of college

-Low talent level around him so far

-Shows the clutch gene & leadership intangibles

-Strong Red Zone efficiency

 

To the point of being raw, he’s made noticeable jumps from year 1 to year 2, and within year 2

 

The low talent level excuse (facing pressure, drops, running game woes etc) is likely removed now by the OL continuity/experience, and addition of Diggs & Moss

 

His criticisms are valid:

 

-Sub 60% completion percentage 

-Stagnant offense that doesn’t score enough

 

I, personally, will be shocked, given the work he puts in and the jumps he’s made so far, if he has deep ball woes like Year 2.   If he does not...if that is fixed... You can realistically add an extra 40-50 YPG to his passing totals and an extra 6-7 PPG to of Offensive Output, at least.   I say “at least”, because if he gets that straightened out, it opens everything else up, and with the talent on this offense, that means Singletary/Moss will eat and the underneath game opens up making other throws easier, which then adds more YPG passing and increases his completion percentage.  
 

If he slows the game down and checks down 1 or 2 times per game (he rarely ever does this) his completion percentage likely goes above 60% just by doing this, independent of anything else.  
 

If he still can’t consistently (relatively speaking) hit the open deep ball, and refuses to pick up easy yardage via checkdowns from time to time, in Year 3, then we have a problem..... but given his size, mobility and arm..... if you believe he corrects that this year.... Allen immediately becomes an upper half of the league QB.  


The reason I reference the Texans Playoff Game so much is because it summarized Josh Allen, so far, to a T.   For 3/4 of that game his talent was on display... Mobility, desire, arm strength etc..  However, the offense went stagnant, the defense struggled, the game got close, Allen’s playmakers let him down multiple times and Allen showed his issues.... Poor decisions, dangerous throws, trying too hard.   Then, at the same time, he almost (should have) won us the game, were it not for a horrible call and a missed block by half our team.   
 

I suspect that game provided valuable growth and learning for Allen, and our entire team, FO included with the moves they made this offseason.  
 

As bullish as I am, I still need to see it to believe it.   New England/Baltimore Allen is not going to cut it in Year 3, and if those games continue, I’ll join in with the Allen-pessimism.   However, if we get more Miami/Dallas in Year 3, we are set up very well for sustained success given the HC/FO and way they set us up with the cap and cornerstone young players.  

 

I agree with all of this.  But they have other teams on the list ahead of us with the exact same issue, and I argue we have a better supporting team outside of him. 


That's my main issue.

  • Haha (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...