Ngakoue Watch is officially on!

[IgotBILLStopay]

7 hours ago, Putin said:

I think the bigger concern here is not the 2nd but a  huge contract that will have to dish out for him IF we intend to keep him beyond this year , unless the FO believes that we could go all the way  THIS YEAR !!!  

Not to mention we have our own guys due for BIG contracts 

 

 

Beane has actually structured the contracts we gave out this year quite smartly. We can walk away from Addison, Butler, Jefferson and Hughes quite easily after this year. So can easily pay a DE top dollar next year.

 

All the opt outs have given us cap room to play with this year. IMO, the real debate we should be having is not really about fitting Ngakoue under the cap next year  - it is whether he makes our team better this year.  Just saying.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

7 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

The Seattle fans were all gaga about comp picks when the Clowney trade went down. See for example,

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/northwest/seattle-seahawks/analysis-seattle-seahawks-pull-heist-trade-jadeveon-clowney

 

 

A more recent article talking about how Seattle would lose a comp pick if Clowney was not signed before a particular deadline.

 

https://www.fieldgulls.com/2020/4/19/21226188/dont-expect-comp-picks-seattle-seahawks-2021-fant-jefferson-ifedi-clowney-irvin-shell-finney-mayowa

 

In fact, there was a lot of talk that teams were deliberately delaying signing Clowney to avoid the Seahawks getting a comp pick. 

 

If my understanding is wrong, please do correct me.

 

 

 

 

 

Super interesting. Would you be willing to forego signing free agents, including lower tier free agents, though, to get the 3rd round pick? 

[IgotBILLStopay]

7 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Super interesting. Would you be willing to forego signing free agents, including lower tier free agents, though, to get the 3rd round pick? 

 

That is a valid consideration. When our talent cupboard was bare - like the 2018 and 19 offseasons, we had no hope for comp picks. The past offseason was a wash - coulda gone either way - for example, we coulda gotten picks for Phillips and Lawson - but we had to replace em and more importantly, they werent gonna be 3rd or 4th rounders.

 

I think our team is reasonably set at enough positions that we actually would be unlikely to sign a whole bunch of free agents next offseason. Also, that decision (to sign lower tier FAs) is endogenous to the comp pick we are getting. Just hypothetically, if Ngakoue does play really well to command a hefty salary and we dont want to pay that - we might forego signing lower tier FAs early in the period to preserve our comp pick.

 

Hey, FWIW, we might even let Milano walk if there is no extension and he commands a big enough salary that we are getting a comp pick back.

 

At least one writer considers him a top 25 FA in 2021.

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/top-25-nfl-free-agents-in-2021-prospective-class-teeming-with-talent

Edited August 20, 2020 by IgotBILLStopay

[whatdrought]

1 hour ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

 

That is a valid consideration. When our talent cupboard was bare - like the 2018 and 19 offseasons, we had no hope for comp picks. The past offseason was a wash - coulda gone either way - for example, we coulda gotten picks for Phillips and Lawson - but we had to replace em and more importantly, they werent gonna be 3rd or 4th rounders.

 

I think our team is reasonably set at enough positions that we actually would be unlikely to sign a whole bunch of free agents next offseason. Also, that decision (to sign lower tier FAs) is endogenous to the comp pick we are getting. Just hypothetically, if Ngakoue does play really well to command a hefty salary and we dont want to pay that - we might forego signing lower tier FAs early in the period to preserve our comp pick.

 

Hey, FWIW, we might even let Milano walk if there is no extension and he commands a big enough salary that we are getting a comp pick back.

 

At least one writer considers him a top 25 FA in 2021.

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/top-25-nfl-free-agents-in-2021-prospective-class-teeming-with-talent

 

 

The beauty of comp picks comes in when you have a successful team and other teams start paying big chunks for your leftovers, i.e., guys you wouldn't have wanted anyways simply because they're seen as winners/their stock is elevated due to being on a winning team. We saw that a bit with Shaq and Phillips, but it'll continue as we emerge into a routine contender. 

[HOUSE]

What are we watching again ?

Oh yea, Ngakoue

NO ....

[ColoradoBills]

28 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

This is guna hurt someone feelings... we have been salary cap champs the past few years...

 

Those days are over.  Bills have filled up their roster and it will be leaner years ahead with free agency.

[BillsfaninSB]

On 8/20/2020 at 2:41 PM, IgotBILLStopay said:

 

Beane has actually structured the contracts we gave out this year quite smartly. We can walk away from Addison, Butler, Jefferson and Hughes quite easily after this year. So can easily pay a DE top dollar next year.

 

All the opt outs have given us cap room to play with this year. IMO, the real debate we should be having is not really about fitting Ngakoue under the cap next year  - it is whether he makes our team better this year.  Just saying.

Yes he would.

[GunnerBill]

On 8/20/2020 at 8:52 PM, Billl said:

The point is that there’s a difference in philosophy between building a team to compete in the future and putting the finishing touches on a championship contender.  When you’re in your window, getting 1% better is worth overpaying for.  The Chiefs gave up a ton for the right to overpay Frank Clark.  Then he had 5 sacks in the postseason, helped win the Lombardi trophy, and nobody cares what he cost anymore because flags fly forever.  What’s more is that the Chiefs then went out and signed everyone anyway because the salary cap is about as effective as Trump’s border wall.

 

The salary cap is a moveable feast. You have as much money to play with as the number of years you are willing to commit cash to. Bills fans just haven't been used to this mindset. Because cap space means hope. Hope that next year it will be spent on the shiny pieces that stop the team sucking. But the point is the team doesn't suck now. We have good players. You find ways to keep them. Yes, there will always be the odd guy you have to let walk. Maybe Milano fits that description, but people worrying about can we afford to reset the market for Tre White? Of course we can. In fact we have no choice. 

[Billl]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The salary cap is a moveable feast. You have as much money to play with as the number of years you are willing to commit cash to. Bills fans just haven't been used to this mindset. Because cap space means hope. Hope that next year it will be spent on the shiny pieces that stop the team sucking. But the point is the team doesn't suck now. We have good players. You find ways to keep them. Yes, there will always be the odd guy you have to let walk. Maybe Milano fits that description, but people worrying about can we afford to reset the market for Tre White? Of course we can. In fact we have no choice. 

The Milano situation is a perfect example of a mindset that will need to change.  Top teams have to let good players go because not all  good players are key pieces.  MM is a good player, but Linebackers who get a bunch of tackles but aren’t pass rushers aren’t key pieces.  You can replace them with JAGs for a fraction of the cost and use that money to retain Tre or whomever and be much better off.  4-3 LBers just don’t move the needle enough to keep them when it’s time to separate the “wants” from the “needs”.

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Billl said:

The Milano situation is a perfect example of a mindset that will need to change.  Top teams have to let good players go because not all  good players are key pieces.  MM is a good player, but Linebackers who get a bunch of tackles but aren’t pass rushers aren’t key pieces.  You can replace them with JAGs for a fraction of the cost and use that money to retain Tre or whomever and be much better off.  4-3 LBers just don’t move the needle enough to keep them when it’s time to separate the “wants” from the “needs”.

 

I broadly agree with that.... though I would say McDermott's system is more linebacker dependant than some others. But ultimately it is hard to fit he AND Edmunds in long term when you are paying other critical pieces. 

[Thurman#1]

On 8/21/2020 at 6:41 AM, IgotBILLStopay said:

 

Beane has actually structured the contracts we gave out this year quite smartly. We can walk away from Addison, Butler, Jefferson and Hughes quite easily after this year. So can easily pay a DE top dollar next year.

 

All the opt outs have given us cap room to play with this year. IMO, the real debate we should be having is not really about fitting Ngakoue under the cap next year  - it is whether he makes our team better this year.  Just saying.

 

 

As of right now, we are $5 mill OVER next year's projected cap. That puts us 21st in the league. It's not good. Yeah, we will roll over some money from this year's cap. Right now that would be $17M, roughly, but that will change when cuts and pickups affect things. But we don't have a lot of play money next year. 

 

We could walk away from those four DEs next year, but won't. We'd just have to replace all or most. One or two? Absolutely we could do that. But the idea that we would then spend that money on a DE because the money came from cutting DEs simply doesn't make sense.

 

More to the point, you're assuming our FO will suddenly change the way they work, their beliefs, methods and strategies, to fit your own. This is very unlikely. They've made it clear that they don't generally want to bring in high-priced FAs, that they instead want to re-sign their own guys as much as they can. Expect them to continue doing what THEY believe is correct rather than what YOU believe is correct.

 

CAN we pay Ngakoue next year? Sure. But by the same token, CAN I buy a Mercedes-Mayback GLS this year? Absolutely. But it would make no financial sense whatsoever. It would mean my family would have to live on ramen noodles we cooked under the bridge we would as a result be living under. Whether a team CAN afford to sign a guy isn't the question. The question is WILL they sign him ... and that is usually affected less by ability to sign and far more by their process (see what I did there) of deciding financial tactics, procedures and approaches they believe are smartest.

 

Agreed, though, that Beane has structure contracts very strategically. It's one of the things I love about this brain trust.

Edited August 27, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

11 hours ago, Billl said:

The Milano situation is a perfect example of a mindset that will need to change.  Top teams have to let good players go because not all  good players are key pieces.  MM is a good player, but Linebackers who get a bunch of tackles but aren’t pass rushers aren’t key pieces.  You can replace them with JAGs for a fraction of the cost and use that money to retain Tre or whomever and be much better off.  4-3 LBers just don’t move the needle enough to keep them when it’s time to separate the “wants” from the “needs”.

 

 

You're right that Milano will be a tough decision. But looking at LBs as guys who either tackle or rush misses a huge area of need. These days - and especially in the McDermott defense - LBs also have to cover. And guys who can both tackle and cover provide a lot of value that a JAG would not provide. There aren't that many guys around who can do that.

 

It's not a mistake that Carolina - when they were running a very successful McDermott defense - paid a lot of money to two very good LBs, neither of whom rushed the passer much, but both of whom McDermott apparently considered necessary.

Edited August 27, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Victory Formation]

I absolutely think Ngakoue is worth trading for.... but how much? I think a 2nd is about the max I’d offer... similar to what the Texans got for Clowney in their trade with Seattle... Ngakoue + Epenesa would solidify our bookend situation for the next 5-10 years.. we are in WIN now mode, I think a trade here should be explored.. I’d offer our 2nd but I wouldn’t offer more than that.... plus our 2nd will likely be at the bottom of the 2nd round so I doubt we’d be able to draft a better player than Ngakoue there... I’m all for a trade here, this team is ready to make a deep deep deep playoff push now.. do it..

[Kirby Jackson]

On 8/20/2020 at 2:52 PM, Billl said:

The point is that there’s a difference in philosophy between building a team to compete in the future and putting the finishing touches on a championship contender.  When you’re in your window, getting 1% better is worth overpaying for.  The Chiefs gave up a ton for the right to overpay Frank Clark.  Then he had 5 sacks in the postseason, helped win the Lombardi trophy, and nobody cares what he cost anymore because flags fly forever.  What’s more is that the Chiefs then went out and signed everyone anyway because the salary cap is about as effective as Trump’s border wall.

This is 100% right and something we haven’t had to experience. When your window is open you push your chips in and kick the can down the road. The Saints have done it for a decade.

[SCBills]

13 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

I absolutely think Ngakoue is worth trading for.... but how much? I think a 2nd is about the max I’d offer... similar to what the Texans got for Clowney in their trade with Seattle... Ngakoue + Epenesa would solidify our bookend situation for the next 5-10 years.. we are in WIN now mode, I think a trade here should be explored.. I’d offer our 2nd but I wouldn’t offer more than that.... plus our 2nd will likely be at the bottom of the 2nd round so I doubt we’d be able to draft a better player than Ngakoue there... I’m all for a trade here, this team is ready to make a deep deep deep playoff push now.. do it..

The only issue I see is in regards to the new cap and Milano.  
 

Im not for or against an Ngakoue trade.  We have our LT, CB, WR, MLB and hopefully QB of the future.. all we’re missing, as far as cornerstones go, is a young stud EDGE.  

 

However, with the cap going down next year, we can cut Murphy and use his money to sign Ngakoue long term, along with Tre White, but I don’t think there’s enough $$ to go around for Milano.  

[ColoradoBills]

18 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

This is 100% right and something we haven’t had to experience. When your window is open you push your chips in and kick the can down the road. The Saints have done it for a decade.

 

Well the Saints are definitely "all in" this year.  Next year is shaping up to be absolutely brutal.

[Jerboski]

19 hours ago, SCBills said:

The only issue I see is in regards to the new cap and Milano.  
 

Im not for or against an Ngakoue trade.  We have our LT, CB, WR, MLB and hopefully QB of the future.. all we’re missing, as far as cornerstones go, is a young stud EDGE.  

 

However, with the cap going down next year, we can cut Murphy and use his money to sign Ngakoue long term, along with Tre White, but I don’t think there’s enough $$ to go around for Milano.  

I feel like milano is an easier replacement than finding a big time young edge rusher... no offense to milano who is a good player 

[Nanker]

It’s over. Vikes got him for a 2nd in 2021 and. Conditional 5th in 2022. 

Edited August 30, 2020 by Nanker

[gobilz]

It is finished