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ESPN+: Top 10 QBs according to league personnel


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https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/29394204/ranking-nfl-top-10-qbs-2020-follows-patrick-mahomes

 

Edit: To be clear, they're ranking QBs as they expect them to be in 2020. Not trying to project them 5 years out or anything like that (but in the case of Darnold for example, the guy that voted for him said that he expects him to take a leap this year).

 

The Top 10:

  1. Patrick Mahomes
  2. Russell Wilson
  3. Aaron Rodgers
  4. Deshaun Watson
  5. Drew Brees
  6. Lamar Jackson
  7. Tom Brady
  8. Carson Wentz
  9. Dak Prescott
  10. Matt Stafford

 

Also receiving votes:

  • Matt Ryan - 14 votes out of 50 voters
  • Ben Roethlisberger - 8 votes
  • Kyler Murray - 5 votes
  • Kirk Cousins - 2 votes
  • Jimmy Garoppolo - 2 votes
  • Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill, Jared Goff, Sam Darnold - 1 vote each
Edited by DCOrange
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Dak is so overrated.  Surrounded by elite talent and still can't get it done.  Couldn't even win by far the worst division in the league last year.  Stat monster, but not a winner.  At least Stafford has an excuse for losing.

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10 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/29394204/ranking-nfl-top-10-qbs-2020-follows-patrick-mahomes

 

Edit: To be clear, they're ranking QBs as they expect them to be in 2020. Not trying to project them 5 years out or anything like that (but in the case of Darnold for example, the guy that voted for him said that he expects him to take a leap this year).

 

The Top 10:

  1. Patrick Mahomes
  2. Russell Wilson
  3. Aaron Rodgers
  4. Deshaun Watson
  5. Drew Brees
  6. Lamar Jackson
  7. Tom Brady
  8. Carson Wentz
  9. Dak Prescott
  10. Matt Stafford

 

Also receiving votes:

  • Matt Ryan - 14 votes out of 50 voters
  • Ben Roethlisberger - 8 votes
  • Kyler Murray - 5 votes
  • Kirk Cousins - 2 votes
  • Jimmy Garoppolo - 2 votes
  • Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill, Jared Goff, Sam Darnold - 1 vote each

 

Honestly, I don't see a ton wrong with this list. Maybe Ben is a bit too high, running on legacy points. Maybe Josh could be in the Carr, Tannehill, Goff group. But other than that, it reads pretty close to me.

What do I know though, I am just a dude with an opinion on the internet. 

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3 minutes ago, Mark80 said:

Dak is so overrated.  Surrounded by elite talent and still can't get it done.  Couldn't even win by far the worst division in the league last year.  Stat monster, but not a winner.  At least Stafford has an excuse for losing.

These posts confuse me. Win loss records for qbs is a terrible way to judge things but Dak has a 40-24 record.  He has the only Dallas playoff win in 20 years.  He has a 97 qb rating for his career.  I pray Allen becomes this overrated. 

4 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

Honestly, I don't see a ton wrong with this list. Maybe Ben is a bit too high, running on legacy points. Maybe Josh could be in the Carr, Tannehill, Goff group. But other than that, it reads pretty close to me.

What do I know though, I am just a dude with an opinion on the internet. 

Ben, if healthy is top 10.  I think Ryan is the better Matt.  Don’t believe in Carr.  But it’s fairly fine.  Allen isn’t on this level yet. 

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6 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

Honestly, I don't see a ton wrong with this list. Maybe Ben is a bit too high, running on legacy points. Maybe Josh could be in the Carr, Tannehill, Goff group. But other than that, it reads pretty close to me.

What do I know though, I am just a dude with an opinion on the internet. 

Yeah. I generally think you can make a case for a handful of guys after Mahomes, so there's some tweaking I would do, but this is a pretty good list. Surprised Kyler Murray got so much love already, though I tend to think he was very promising this year and will prove to be very good soon.

 

There's some individual votes that are really weird though. One voter put Brady #1 and Mahomes #4 for example. Someone else put Wentz #2.

Edited by DCOrange
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5 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

These posts confuse me. Win loss records for qbs is a terrible way to judge things but Dak has a 40-24 record.  He has the only Dallas playoff win in 20 years.  He has a 97 qb rating for his career.  I pray Allen becomes this overrated. 

 

He has also had the best offensive line in football, the best RB in football, one of the best WRs joined their team 2 seasons ago and has only made the playoffs twice in 4 years in a horrific division (especially last season) and is only 1-2 in the playoffs.  I'm sorry, that's not good enough for me and if that is where Josh is heading I'm going to be disappointed.

Edited by Mark80
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JA, with no votes at all, wasn't even in the top half of NFL starting quarterbacks.  It's good to know, though, that games aren't played in the imaginations of a motley assembly of fifty or so NFL employees.   

 

The voters included NFL scouts.  Scouts are experts in college football.  I wonder how well they keep up with the development of professional players.

 

The voters also include NFL players.  So I wonder how much does a special teamer from the Saints know about AFCE quarterbacks.  

 

The voters also include NFL execs.  And here I wonder how much the VP of Communications in Seattle knows about Josh Allen.  

 

Just because a guy has a job in the NFL doesn't mean he has an expert, comprehensive knowledge of all the players and can accurately project their play in 2020.  

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

JA, with no votes at all, wasn't even in the top half of NFL starting quarterbacks.  It's good to know, though, that games aren't played in the imaginations of a motley assembly of fifty or so NFL employees.   

 

 

 

 

 

Josh isn't top ten in any way yet. I would put him between 15-20

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13 minutes ago, Mark80 said:

 

He has also had the best offensive line in football, the best RB in football, one of the best WRs joined their team 2 seasons ago and has only made the playoffs twice in 4 years in a horrific division (especially last season) and is only 1-2 in the playoffs.  I'm sorry, that's not good enough for me and if that is where Josh is heading I'm going to be disappointed.

 

Their offense led the NFL in yardage a year ago, he threw for 5000 30/11 while completing 65% of passes.  Yes the team has good players around him, but what is the criteria here?  

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1 minute ago, dneveu said:

 

Their offense led the NFL in yardage a year ago, he threw for 5000 30/11 while completing 65% of passes.  Yes the team has good players around him, but what is the criteria here?  

Yeah but how many red zone stops did he get on defense?

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5 minutes ago, CamDMC said:

 

Josh isn't top ten in any way yet. I would put him between 15-20

 

Although I certainly hope Josh performs like a top ten QB this season, I think putting Josh somewhere between 15 and 20 is realistic.  

 

19 QBs received votes in the ESPN informal survey.  Josh wasn't one of them.   I personally think JA is in the top 19.

 

  

 

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6 minutes ago, Gugny said:

The only oddity that sticks out to me is that Darnold got a vote.

 

Other than that, looks pretty accurate to me.

 

Agreed there.  Nothing he did last year was impressive.  He's just as likely to become a good player as allen, but his stinkers really stick out.  The seeing ghosts game was just, absurdly pathetic.  11/32 for 86 and 4 picks?  Falk was 12/22 for 98 and 1 pick a couple weeks before.  

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48 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/29394204/ranking-nfl-top-10-qbs-2020-follows-patrick-mahomes

 

Edit: To be clear, they're ranking QBs as they expect them to be in 2020. Not trying to project them 5 years out or anything like that (but in the case of Darnold for example, the guy that voted for him said that he expects him to take a leap this year).

 

The Top 10:

  1. Patrick Mahomes
  2. Russell Wilson
  3. Aaron Rodgers
  4. Deshaun Watson
  5. Drew Brees
  6. Lamar Jackson
  7. Tom Brady
  8. Carson Wentz
  9. Dak Prescott
  10. Matt Stafford

 

Also receiving votes:

  • Matt Ryan - 14 votes out of 50 voters
  • Ben Roethlisberger - 8 votes
  • Kyler Murray - 5 votes
  • Kirk Cousins - 2 votes
  • Jimmy Garoppolo - 2 votes
  • Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill, Jared Goff, Sam Darnold - 1 vote each


Well, not sure how Brady is down to 8th when he went to 8 SB’s, and won 6.  I hate Brady as much as the next guy, but now that he has all that talent around him, I’m betting he has a solid year.  Maybe not #1, but higher than 7th.  Brees should also be higher than 5th.  He’s had multiple years above 70% completion stats.

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I don't object to JA being left off the list.  I'm fine with him not receiving votes, because he isn't there yet.  Look at the other guys receiving votes... he just isn't on there level YET.  That's not to say that he won't be there by seasons end (I hope he is).  IMO, he is not in the borderline top-10 area yet.. i.e. in the same tier (according to this list) as players like Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Kirk Cousins, and Jimmy G.

 

A couple players who I think should be rated higher/lower than they are:

 

Aaron Rodgers:  overrated

Tom Brady:  overrated

Matt Ryan:  underrated

Big Ben (healthy):  underrated

 

5 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Although I certainly hope Josh performs like a top ten QB this season, I think putting Josh somewhere between 15 and 20 is realistic.  

 

19 QBs received votes in the ESPN informal survey.  Josh wasn't one of them.   I personally think JA is in the top 19.

 

  

 

Arguably, some of those that received votes as being in the top 10 probably shouldn't have.  I mean.. Sam Darnold and Tannehill, really? 

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13 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

JA, with no votes at all, wasn't even in the top half of NFL starting quarterbacks.  It's good to know, though, that games aren't played in the imaginations of a motley assembly of fifty or so NFL employees.   

 

The voters included NFL scouts.  Scouts are experts in college football.  I wonder how well they keep up with the development of professional players.

 

The voters also include NFL players.  So I wonder how much does a special teamer from the Saints know about AFCE quarterbacks.  

 

The voters also include NFL execs.  And here I wonder how much the VP of Communications in Seattle knows about Josh Allen.  

 

Just because a guy has a job in the NFL doesn't mean he has an expert, comprehensive knowledge of all the players and can accurately project their play in 2020.  

 

 

 

 

I don't have ESPN + so I don't know if they named each of the 50 people who voted, if you have it could you share the list? 

 

I do think you took some liberties here. By the same logic it could go the other way. They could have all been pro personnel scouts, GM's, CB's, and DE's. 

 

Scouts- Sure they are experts at college football, in that their job is to find talent at the college level that will translate to the NFL. Weird pigeon hole here. Still no votes. 

Players- Maybe I am making too many exceptions here, but a guy who is on an NFL roster has probably watched tons of NFL film on both sides of the ball. Probably as reputable a source as just about anybody. Still no votes

NFL execs- I would hope they left out the VP of communications. But sure I guess it is possible. NFL execs also include director of player personel, GM's, Assistant GM's, etc. So sure maybe ESPN reached out to the guy who executes sponsorship, advertising, and social media. Maybe they are all execs from non-football ops and that is why Allen didn't get any votes. 

Coaches- You conveniently left this part out. But, based on your commentary on possibility for NFL execs, they were all probably special assistant to the long snapper. Both offensive and defensive coaches should be pretty in tune with QB play in the league. They are either watching film to get ideas, or they are watching film to stop them. Still no votes. 

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18 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Their offense led the NFL in yardage a year ago, he threw for 5000 30/11 while completing 65% of passes.  Yes the team has good players around him, but what is the criteria here?  

 

He did not throw for 5,000 yards.  He threw for 4,900.  At it was the first time he went over 4,000.  The criteria is actually winning more than 1 playoff game.  The criteria is actually making the playoffs when you are in the worst division in football.  The criteria is winning some big games which they consistently fall short in.  The criteria is not getting absolutely smoked by the Bills on Thanksgiving day at home.  Especially when your team is absolutely LOADED on the offensive side of the ball.  He's a mid-level QB that is only able to put up those stats because of his surrounding cast, not because of his true talent level.  I'm taking 3 or 4 guys ahead of him in that secondary list. 

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15 minutes ago, Gugny said:

The only oddity that sticks out to me is that Darnold got a vote.

 

Other than that, looks pretty accurate to me.

the only thing i picked up on as well.  

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