Bill Barnwell on Josh Allen

[NewEra]

12 minutes ago, GaryPinC said:

I think the negativity is because of the disappointment that Tyrod has enough raw physical tools to be a great QB but failed to do so when we needed it the most at critical points in games.  With all the great things about him, it was obvious the team had no future with him so you magnify the negatives to compensate.

This.  I never had confidence that he would lead us down the field for a GW td with the game on the line.  The ultimate example was mnf @ Seattle.  Tyrod had played one of, if not the best game I’ve seen him play.  Sitting in the stands, watching him

move the chains on the final drive, I couldn’t help but think, how are we going to lose this game.  We lost the game because he couldn’t score a TD when we needed him to. 
 

I have confidence Josh Allen will lead us down the field and get us into the end zone or the GW score. I never had that with Tyrod.  And that’s why he’s gone.  He had his chance.  

[C.Biscuit97]

15 minutes ago, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:

I seriously doubt Tyrod makes all those 4Q comebacks/game-winning drives. He was a Trentative check down artist and would usually shrink and crumble when asked to win the game for you. Allen plays his best ball at winning time.

Well considering the Bills scored more points under Taylor than Allen, they might not need him.  It’s kinda why I hate the 4th quarter comeback stat.  With better qb play and offense, we won’t have needed comebacks last year.  Really good defense and a garbage schedule.  Those games should have been over by the 3rd quarter.

Edited July 1, 2020 by C.Biscuit97

[teef]

oh my...

[DCOrange]

No surprise that Barnwell's comparison to Tyrod is what's garnered the most attention from the article. I've mentioned the same thing in the past as well. Rookie Allen took chances with the ball in a way Tyrod never did, and because of Rookie Allen's deficiencies as a passer, those chances more often than not did not work out in our favor. Sophomore Allen was very similar to Tyrod; dialed back on forcing passes in a very major way, both in terms of throwing into tight windows and also in terms of throwing it deep.

 

It shouldn't be an offensive comparison. Tyrod was roughly an average to above-average starter during his time here. The comparison is that as a sophomore, Allen played in a similar way to Tyrod, albeit he wasn't as efficient as Tyrod's best season. Obviously Allen is only headed into his 3rd season in the NFL; he should hypothetically improve moving forwards (though that isn't a given and some would even say unlikely) and become a much better QB than Tyrod ever was here. That's certainly my hope.

 

Overall, the article is a really good read IMO even if the conclusions drawn aren't necessarily what we'd like to hear. I still like Allen a lot as a prospect but obviously this next season will be a huge one in determining what we have moving forwards.

Edited July 1, 2020 by DCOrange

[Kirby Jackson]

5 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

No surprise that Barnwell's comparison to Tyrod is what's garnered the most attention from the article. I've mentioned the same thing in the past as well. Rookie Allen took chances with the ball in a way Tyrod never did, and because of Rookie Allen's deficiencies as a passer, those chances more often than not did not work out in our favor. Sophomore Allen was very similar to Tyrod; dialed back on forcing passes in a very major way, both in terms of throwing into tight windows and also in terms of throwing it deep.

 

It shouldn't be an offensive comparison. Tyrod was roughly an average to above-average starter during his time here. The comparison is that as a sophomore, Allen played in a similar way to Tyrod, albeit he wasn't as efficient as Tyrod's best season. Obviously Allen is only headed into his 3rd season in the NFL; he should hypothetically improve moving forwards (though that isn't a given and some would even say unlikely) and become a much better QB than Tyrod ever was here. That's certainly my hope.

 

Overall, the article is a really good read IMO even if the conclusions drawn aren't necessarily what we'd like to hear. I still like Allen a lot as a prospect but obviously this next season will be a huge one in determining what we have moving forwards.

This x1,000,000

 

2nd year Allen was just like Tyrod here. The hope is that Allen continues to progress. I think he will.

[eball]

Still waiting for someone to come here and honestly say that Josh Allen and Tyrod Taylor play the same way.  Not that their stats were similar, or that their W-L records were similar, but that you think of them as similar QBs based upon what you are watching.

 

[stinky finger]

1 hour ago, Reader said:

 

2015 Tyrod is underrated on this board.

 

And clearly overrated in this thread.

[DCOrange]

Seems relevant to a lot of the discussion here:

 

[Punching Bag]

2 hours ago, eball said:

OH. MY. GOD.  Please let this season happen so these articles will stop.  Everybody knows this is Allen's make-it-or-break-it season to show he is going to be "the man."  EVERYBODY.  How many "the Bills will only go as far as Josh Allen takes them" articles do we need?

 

As many as writers will be paid for?  

Some like Jerry Sullivan had articles pre-written and just picked what fitted his predetermined conclusion.

 

 

Sorry if my reply is painful to some of Jerry's ball washers.

Edited July 1, 2020 by Limeaid
apology

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Seems relevant to a lot of the discussion here:

 

Weren’t the Bills near top of the league in 3rd and 8+ last season?

[simpleman]

2 hours ago, eball said:

OH. MY. GOD.  Please let this season happen so these articles will stop.  Everybody knows this is Allen's make-it-or-break-it season to show he is going to be "the man."  EVERYBODY.  How many "the Bills will only go as far as Josh Allen takes them" articles do we need?

Eball you know better. The article is just one part of a series he wrote comparing the 2018 first round draft QB selections. Each day of the week he does a detailed evaluation of a different QB. It is not specifically about the Bills, or written for Bills fans. It is written for NFL football fans. And it is a very fair and reasonable article. He tells the positives and negatives for each. Lighten up. NFL football is about more than just the Bills.

[eball]

22 minutes ago, teef said:

oh my...

 

I know what you're thinking.

 

By the way, an analysis on FiveThirtyEight last season looked for all games that ESPN's win-probability model gave a 60-40 or narrower split at any point with five or fewer minutes remaining in regulation.  There were 63 out of 256 such games, or just about 25%.

 

So yeah, having a QB who knows how to lead a 4th quarter comeback isn't really that important.  ?

[C.Biscuit97]

3 minutes ago, eball said:

 

I know what you're thinking.

 

By the way, an analysis on FiveThirtyEight last season looked for all games that ESPN's win-probability model gave a 60-40 or narrower split at any point with five or fewer minutes remaining in regulation.  There were 63 out of 256 such games, or just about 25%.

 

So yeah, having a QB who knows how to lead a 4th quarter comeback isn't really that important.  ?

2010 Mark Sanchez agrees. So does 2015 Blake Bortles.  ?

Edited July 1, 2020 by C.Biscuit97

[VW82]

I like Barnwell and agree with not just his overall assessment but on the majority of his individual points.

 

The Tyrod comp is lazy and incorrect. Those teams were built on the backs of Shady, Richie, EWood, and some very creative and aggressive run oriented play calling. That offense was nothing like what Daboll is running. Any statistical similarities are purely by accident and don't begin to tell the whole story.  

Edited July 1, 2020 by VW82

[BullBuchanan]

2 hours ago, costrovs said:

 

Deep Pass- He can throw deep. It's a threat every time he's on the field. Defenses know that. Gone are the days of Defenses stacking 9 players at the line.

 

Can he though? He can throw far, sure, but his deep ball accuracy is almost fitzpatrick-esque

 

[dollars 2 donuts]

I may be part of the small group that brings this up, but I honestly think given the way he is in  a number of fourth quarters, that if he doesn't get hurt against the Pats in that first game that maybe they pull that one out.

 

If you keep all things equal, because otherwise it gets a little goofy, the Bills finish 11-5 and even if they don't win the tie breaker against the Pats at 11-5 I just think that mark causes a lot of these question go away.

 

...certainly not all of them, but a lot.  

 

A victory against the Pats, another comeback win, yada-yada-yada.

[Kirby Jackson]

25 minutes ago, eball said:

Still waiting for someone to come here and honestly say that Josh Allen and Tyrod Taylor play the same way.  Not that their stats were similar, or that their W-L records were similar, but that you think of them as similar QBs based upon what you are watching.

 

I do to an extent. They both are tough when the play breaks down. They both kept a lot of plays alive in the backfield that should have been sacks. Neither threw a lot of 50/50 balls which is why their turnovers are low. They were “good misses.” Allen is better in the intermediate and Tyrod better down the field. They were good on 3rd down as well. Both guys were pretty fearless runners too (which I love). 
 

Now, I believe that Allen will continue to progress but his season last year wasn’t that different than Tyrod here.

[DCOrange]

30 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Weren’t the Bills near top of the league in 3rd and 8+ last season?

I think they were near the top in terms of the # of times they converted, but that was a result of how bad they were on 1st and 2nd down. I don't think I can find the exact same metric as Barnwell is using for Tyrod, but for example in the article in the OP it mentions that "When you don't consider his runs, Allen converted just 32.8% of his third/fourth-down dropbacks into first downs as a passer, which was the second-worst rate in the league." Not specifically 3rd and 8+ though.

 

Edit: If I'm inputting it correctly into Pro-Football Reference, it looks like Tyrod converted roughly 28-29% of 3rd and 8+ depending on if Barnwell was specifically limiting it to pass attempts or not. Allen was also at 28-29% this past season.

Edited July 1, 2020 by DCOrange

[eball]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I do to an extent. They both are tough when the play breaks down. They both kept a lot of plays alive in the backfield that should have been sacks. Neither threw a lot of 50/50 balls which is why their turnovers are low. They were “good misses.” Allen is better in the intermediate and Tyrod better down the field. They were good on 3rd down as well. Both guys were pretty fearless runners too (which I love). 
 

Now, I believe that Allen will continue to progress but his season last year wasn’t that different than Tyrod here.

 

Yeah, I don't see it.  Tyrod never threw to anyone who wasn't clearly open; it was maddening to watch.  I don't think their running styles are similar.  Remember everyone literally begging Tyrod to use the middle of the field?  Josh was awesome there.  They are much, much different players in my opinion -- without looking at a single stat.

[bigK14094]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I don’t really disagree.  I always said I wish EJ had the attitude that Allen had.  But I think some of you act like he’s some crazy gunslinger and the reality is he’s been closer to Tyrod.  Like 200 yards passing in today’s nfl should not be an accomplishment.  
 

that said, hopefully with Diggs, the excuses will be done.  I want to see an Allen that if the defense slips up against a team like KC, Allen can win a game 31-27.  That’s when you know you have a franchise guy.  

EJ was to busy selling shares in his future income stream. (yes, he did)  He was emulating RG3 who also did that.  Didn't work out for investors in either case.