Doc Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 The 49'ers' SB aspirations took a hit with Deebo Samuel breaking his foot and trading Buckner. Not to mention the SB-losing hangover. As for the Bills, the entire AFCE will have a tough schedule and they're the best team in the division. They just need to win the division, be it 9-7 or even 8-8, to make the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsfaninSB Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 My expectation is that they win the game in week 1. I will go from there after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinky finger Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 9 hours ago, akcash said: OP had an original thought. Hes comparing expectations of two franchises and saying he thinks our expectations for our situation dont put as much pressure on obd as a whole. I get what hes saying. ... There might be a hint of Boomer 9ers vs Bills superbowl in there too. Not sure though. I think it's an appropriate expression of a viewpoint for a Bills message board. This is barely more coherent than the OPs ramblings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said: I was careful to say “smart bettors” and “pros”... Sorry. I didn't see your post that references smart bettors. But you're wrong. Smart bettors bet when the odds being offered are much better than what the smart bettor knows what the odds should be. So, for example, a smart better will bet what he knows to be a 20 to 1 longshot if the bookie is offering 50 to 1. 20 of those at a dollar each costs 20 dollars and returns 50. That's a good investment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 15 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: Sorry. I didn't see your post that references smart bettors. But you're wrong. Smart bettors bet when the odds being offered are much better than what the smart bettor knows what the odds should be. So, for example, a smart better will bet what he knows to be a 20 to 1 longshot if the bookie is offering 50 to 1. 20 of those at a dollar each costs 20 dollars and returns 50. That's a good investment. Professional bettors and bookies would likely not be that far off on odds with any frequency. Anyway, pros make their living this way, not by dropping money on longshots. That's for the dopes, as far as they are concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
major Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 Why are the 49ers being discussed here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Florida Bills Fanatic Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 12 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said: How exactly are the 49ers going "all in" this year? He must be thinking about cap space next year. I don't believe they have done anything crazy with money. In fact they made the Armstead trade and replaced him with a rookie deal to manage their cap for the future. They certainly haven't done anything like the Rams did with overspending and pushing it to future years. This entire thread just seems a bit incoherent but maybe it's just me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 Super Bowl or bust for us. With our roster, Defense, THE PROCESS, and team unity, there is no time like the present.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 On 6/25/2020 at 2:15 PM, Tipster19 said: Big difference. The 49’ers are going all in. That’s a lot of pressure in a asterisk season. If they come up short it just might make that a combustible roster/locker room. I like the lower expectation, it takes a lot of pressure off. If the Bills can’t take or seriously threaten for the division title this year then they might have to do some big time reassessments come next off season. Wow. Call TMZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 12 hours ago, Mr. WEO said: Professional bettors and bookies would likely not be that far off on odds with any frequency. Anyway, pros make their living this way, not by dropping money on longshots. That's for the dopes, as far as they are concerned. Just because it's fun to talk about, I'll keep going. I'll admit, I don't know much of anything about how professional bettors operate, but in my limited experience, professional bettors ber like professional investors invest - they make a portfolio of investments and count on their ability to get a higher than average return on the collection. Win some and lose, but if you can win marginally more than you lose, you'll do okay. The odds, however, change the equation. The odds are established to make the house a profit on the house's portfolio, so the only way you can win is to be smarter about the odds than the house. You can't bet the favorite every time and beat the house - the net return on betting the favorite every time will be negative, just like the net return on betting longshots every time also will be negative. That suggests to me that the smart bettor is looking for the bet where the actual chances of a win is better than the house's odds suggest. Actually, the Bills offer a good example of that. The betting market is a national market, and the perception of the national market (until 2020) was that the Bills were horrible. The national press didn't talk about the Bills, and most fans thought the Bills sucked. That meant the betting market was disinclined to bet on the Bills. That meant for the most of the past two decades the bookies offered longer odds, better odds, on the Bills to try to get some of the market to move toward betting on the Bills. There was a period for several years, particularly with Jauron at the helm, when the Bills were a smart bet, because they regularly got more points than they should have. You didn't win every time taking the Bills and the points, but over the season you usually won more than you lost. Running into last season, there was a thread here that went on for some time about people who betting the over-under on the Bills' win-loss record. I think the bet was 6.5 games. Who knows whether it was true, but people here reported making big bets on the over. It seemed pretty obvious. The Bill had won 6 the season before, people who followed the Bills knew Allen was better than the national press was reporting, they'd added Brown and Beasley, they'retooled the offensive line, and they had Gore and McCoy. If just some of the good things that could flow from all of those changes actually happened, the Bills should be better than 6 wins. In fact, three of four of those things happened (Allen WAS better, Brown and Beasley WERE who we thought they were, and the o-line DID improve), and they caught a break at running back, too. The over looked like a smart bet, and it was. As I understood it, you can bet just not the straight over-under, you can bet the over or the under at any number of wins, with different returns. People were betting the over, as they should have, at 7 and 8 games, because it was pretty clear what was happening in Buffalo. You make money betting by having a portfolio of bets where you think the potential return is better than how the market values the bet. Investors do the same thing. They could buy conservative, blue chip stocks and nothing else, but they know that their return is enhanced by making smart bets on some mid- and small-cap stocks. Those bets are higher risk, but they're also higher return. If you're smarter than the market about buying them, you can make money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: Wow. Call TMZ. Why TMZ? Kiara Mia to blame? ? 9 hours ago, reddogblitz said: Super Bowl or bust for us. You just keep Ms. Mia out of this discussion! ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 35 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: Just because it's fun to talk about, I'll keep going. I'll admit, I don't know much of anything about how professional bettors operate, but in my limited experience, professional bettors ber like professional investors invest - they make a portfolio of investments and count on their ability to get a higher than average return on the collection. Win some and lose, but if you can win marginally more than you lose, you'll do okay. The odds, however, change the equation. The odds are established to make the house a profit on the house's portfolio, so the only way you can win is to be smarter about the odds than the house. You can't bet the favorite every time and beat the house - the net return on betting the favorite every time will be negative, just like the net return on betting longshots every time also will be negative. That suggests to me that the smart bettor is looking for the bet where the actual chances of a win is better than the house's odds suggest. Actually, the Bills offer a good example of that. The betting market is a national market, and the perception of the national market (until 2020) was that the Bills were horrible. The national press didn't talk about the Bills, and most fans thought the Bills sucked. That meant the betting market was disinclined to bet on the Bills. That meant for the most of the past two decades the bookies offered longer odds, better odds, on the Bills to try to get some of the market to move toward betting on the Bills. There was a period for several years, particularly with Jauron at the helm, when the Bills were a smart bet, because they regularly got more points than they should have. You didn't win every time taking the Bills and the points, but over the season you usually won more than you lost. Running into last season, there was a thread here that went on for some time about people who betting the over-under on the Bills' win-loss record. I think the bet was 6.5 games. Who knows whether it was true, but people here reported making big bets on the over. It seemed pretty obvious. The Bill had won 6 the season before, people who followed the Bills knew Allen was better than the national press was reporting, they'd added Brown and Beasley, they'retooled the offensive line, and they had Gore and McCoy. If just some of the good things that could flow from all of those changes actually happened, the Bills should be better than 6 wins. In fact, three of four of those things happened (Allen WAS better, Brown and Beasley WERE who we thought they were, and the o-line DID improve), and they caught a break at running back, too. The over looked like a smart bet, and it was. As I understood it, you can bet just not the straight over-under, you can bet the over or the under at any number of wins, with different returns. People were betting the over, as they should have, at 7 and 8 games, because it was pretty clear what was happening in Buffalo. You make money betting by having a portfolio of bets where you think the potential return is better than how the market values the bet. Investors do the same thing. They could buy conservative, blue chip stocks and nothing else, but they know that their return is enhanced by making smart bets on some mid- and small-cap stocks. Those bets are higher risk, but they're also higher return. If you're smarter than the market about buying them, you can make money. well....yes. But betting isn't like investing in stocks. It's the opposite. The outcome is known very quickly. By the end of the game the bettor collects or loses. And this has nothing to do with the Bills. Pro sports bettors don't make a living giving money to bookies on long shots. They bet on games. Sure, as a lark, they might put some pin money on these "SB odds" or "season O/U", but it's not going to be a chunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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