Expectations: It’s SB or bust for 49’ers, Buffalo threatens for the Divison.

[Happy]

4 hours ago, eball said:

The OP is nonsensical, but the Bills are a SB contender this year, period.  The roster is deep and crazy stuff happens in the NFL each year.  The real difference in expectations is whether you believe in Josh Allen or not.  I do.

 

I do not believe the Bills are a SB contender this year, there are still question marks on both lines, as well as the QB.  I like Josh and I think/hope he will be good enough to take the team to the next level.  My larger concern is the the coaching staff, who I am not convinced is of caliber to take the team to the SB, or even AFCC.

[Shaw66]

10 hours ago, BornAgainBillsFan said:

Every team has a brief window to win a title, and the Bills are right in the middle of theirs. 

I really think the "window" is nonsense.  The Bills are trying to be what the Colts were, what the Patriots have been, what the Packers and the Saints are.  When you have the right coach and the right quarterback, the "window" is ten years.  It's not a window, it's a garage door. 

 

If you're a Saints fan, you know going into any season that Sean Payton and Drew Brees might pull things together to make a serious Super Bowl run.  If you're a Patriots fan, you felt the same way with Belichick and Brady.  Colts fans felt that way.  Packer fans. Seahawks fans - every year is a year that Wilson and Carroll might make a run. 

 

That's what the Bills are trying to be. 

 

When people talk about the 49ers having a window, it's because they don't believe Garoppolo is a franchise QB.  

 

We're not looking at a window. We're looking at an era. 

[Patrick Moran]

I still have a hard time with the BIlls being considered AFC East favorites. Guess its just something we're not used to

[eball]

23 minutes ago, Happy said:

 

I do not believe the Bills are a SB contender this year, there are still question marks on both lines, as well as the QB.  I like Josh and I think/hope he will be good enough to take the team to the next level.  My larger concern is the the coaching staff, who I am not convinced is of caliber to take the team to the SB, or even AFCC.

 

You're entitled to your opinion but it's not one that is based in sound logic as far as I'm concerned.  All McD and the "coaching staff" have done is make the playoffs two out of three years while completely rebuilding the roster.  Ask the experts around the league to name the best coaching staffs and I guarantee you the Bills are mentioned in the top ten if not top five.

 

But to each his own.

 

[Shaw66]

22 minutes ago, eball said:

 

You're entitled to your opinion but it's not one that is based in sound logic as far as I'm concerned.  All McD and the "coaching staff" have done is make the playoffs two out of three years while completely rebuilding the roster.  Ask the experts around the league to name the best coaching staffs and I guarantee you the Bills are mentioned in the top ten if not top five.

 

But to each his own.

 

I agree with you.  "Super Bowl contender" is an interesting phrase.  As I noted above, I think you're a Super Bowl contender every season you have a winner for a head coach and a winner for a quarterback.  Fans of Wilson, Brees, Roethlisberger, Brady and Rogers can justifiably believe their team can contend for the Super Bowl - it's just a question of how the pieces pull together that season. 

 

Now, it's true that McDermott and Allen haven't shown yet that they deserve to be considered a Super Bowl contender year after year, and that will be true until they at least make a deep run into the playoffs. But it isn't very difficult to see how the Bills could be a contender in the upcoming season:

 

Allen has a breakout season, with perhaps two 1000-yard receivers.  Moss works out at running back, so there's a good running back tandem. The defense is at least as good as last season - with the moves they've made, it could be better than last season, but even last season was good enough to get them to the playoffs. With a good offense and the same defense, it's a tough team to beat.  With a good offense and a top 3 defense, they could win the Super Bowl. 

 

There are a lot of things that might happen to keep that from happening, but right now, if you're going to pick, say, ten teams that have the best shot at winning the Super Bowl, the Bills are probably one of them. 

[Mark80]

OK then, thanks for the update.

[MJS]

1 hour ago, Happy said:

 

I do not believe the Bills are a SB contender this year, there are still question marks on both lines, as well as the QB.  I like Josh and I think/hope he will be good enough to take the team to the next level.  My larger concern is the the coaching staff, who I am not convinced is of caliber to take the team to the SB, or even AFCC.

I tend to agree. The Bills need to prove it in the playoffs before I accept them as Superbowl contenders.

 

Right now they are divisional and playoff contenders, but they haven't earned any talk of a Superbowl, in my opinion. Doesn't mean they can't do it this year, but if they did I think it would be a big surprise to everyone not a Bills fan.

 

I, on the other hand, do believe in the coaching staff, at least McDermott and Frasier. I'm not sold on Daboll, but I'll wait and see how he does this year with more weapons and a more experienced Josh Allen. 3rd year in the scheme. The offense has got to show big time improvement.

[Chandler#81]

For the evident doomsayers, here’s a tip; ALL Playoff teams are Super Bowl contenders. Get in. Play well & be fortunate. Win the Super Bowl. There’s plenty of history to bare this out. If we come out if Tampa with the Lombardi, I want all of you to return and tell us how we didn’t deserve it.

[Shaw66]

45 minutes ago, MJS said:

I tend to agree. The Bills need to prove it in the playoffs before I accept them as Superbowl contenders.

 

You see, this is classic rear-view-mirror analysis:  "Until they've done it, I won't believe they can do it."   

 

You wouldn't look at a young woman and say "until she has a child, I won't believe she's a contender to be a mother."  

 

A contender is not someone who has done it before. A contender is someone who has the ingredients, the potential, to do it. 

 

So, I can have a conversation with people who tell me that the Bills are not a Super Bowl contender because they don't believe Allen will mature into a top-10 quarterback.  I don't share their lack of belief in Allen, but if they are correct about Allen then, yes, I can agree with them that the Bills aren't a Super Bowl contender. 

 

Before the Catch, before Bill Walsh and Joe Montana, you probably were saying the 49ers weren't a Super Bowl contender.  

 

If you have the right coach and the right quarterback, you're a contender. I believe the Bills have both. 

[FireChans]

19 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

You see, this is classic rear-view-mirror analysis:  "Until they've done it, I won't believe they can do it."   

 

You wouldn't look at a young woman and say "until she has a child, I won't believe she's a contender to be a mother."  

 

A contender is not someone who has done it before. A contender is someone who has the ingredients, the potential, to do it. 

 

So, I can have a conversation with people who tell me that the Bills are not a Super Bowl contender because they don't believe Allen will mature into a top-10 quarterback.  I don't share their lack of belief in Allen, but if they are correct about Allen then, yes, I can agree with them that the Bills aren't a Super Bowl contender. 

 

Before the Catch, before Bill Walsh and Joe Montana, you probably were saying the 49ers weren't a Super Bowl contender.  

 

If you have the right coach and the right quarterback, you're a contender. I believe the Bills have both. 

Your list of guys that fans can justifiably believe are contenders are all QB’s with lots of playoff success and then Allen. That just means you’re selectively applying that rearview analysis.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

4 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Garoppolo is bringing by Kiara Mia after all the games?!  

I just realized how appropriate the title phrase 'or bust' is in regards to my earlier offering.  ?

[Mr. WEO]

Tipster19 bringing more pure thread gold...

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

For the evident doomsayers, here’s a tip; ALL Playoff teams are Super Bowl contenders. Get in. Play well & be fortunate. Win the Super Bowl. There’s plenty of history to bare this out. If we come out if Tampa with the Lombardi, I want all of you to return and tell us how we didn’t deserve it.

 

Smart bettors would not lay money on that tip....

[Greg S]

3 hours ago, Happy said:

 

I do not believe the Bills are a SB contender this year, there are still question marks on both lines, as well as the QB.  I like Josh and I think/hope he will be good enough to take the team to the next level.  My larger concern is the the coaching staff, who I am not convinced is of caliber to take the team to the SB, or even AFCC.

 

I think the CS has done a great job. When McDermott came here it was 17 straight seasons without the playoffs. They have made it in 2 of the last 3 seasons as well as coming off a 10 win season. Sure their are things McDermott can improve on and he would probably tell you that but their is no reason they can't win it all at some point assuming Allen continues to improve.

[Rocky Landing]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

Tipster19 bringing more pure thread gold...

 

Smart bettors would not lay money on that tip....

Depends on the odds.

[MJS]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

You see, this is classic rear-view-mirror analysis:  "Until they've done it, I won't believe they can do it."   

 

You wouldn't look at a young woman and say "until she has a child, I won't believe she's a contender to be a mother."  

 

A contender is not someone who has done it before. A contender is someone who has the ingredients, the potential, to do it. 

 

So, I can have a conversation with people who tell me that the Bills are not a Super Bowl contender because they don't believe Allen will mature into a top-10 quarterback.  I don't share their lack of belief in Allen, but if they are correct about Allen then, yes, I can agree with them that the Bills aren't a Super Bowl contender. 

 

Before the Catch, before Bill Walsh and Joe Montana, you probably were saying the 49ers weren't a Super Bowl contender.  

 

If you have the right coach and the right quarterback, you're a contender. I believe the Bills have both. 

They are a contender, just not a Superbowl contender.

 

I've already gone and looked at the past 20 years or so of Superbowl winners and losers and yes, there are a few rare cases where a team goes to the Superbowl without having won a playoff game recently, but the vast majority go to the playoffs and win a playoff game first (usually a bunch of times, actually) before going to the Superbowl.

 

In fact there are boat loads of teams who go to the playoffs and win playoff games many years in a row without even getting to the Superbowl.

 

So yeah, it can happen and it does rarely happen, but not often. Usually you are tested in the playoffs and have multiple playoff wins in consequitive years before making it to the Superbowl.

 

Chiefs are an excellent example. They went to the playoffs a lot with Alex Smith. Even when they got Mahomes and he had his MVP season they still required more playoff experience. Finally, after many years of making the playoffs and winning playoff games they went to the Superbowl. That's how it usually happens.

[Shaw66]

14 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

Depends on the odds.

Bills are currently 28 to 1 to win the Super Bowl, 13 to 1 to get there. 

 

I'd say 20 to 1 and 12 to 1.  So from my point of view, the bet to win the Super Bowl is pretty good, the bet to get there is just okay. 

 

Currently, the odds favor the Steelers, the Patriots and the Colts over the Bills to win the Super Bowl.  I don't see that.  

[Mr. WEO]

19 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

Depends on the odds.

Pros don’t waste time on long shots unless there’s shadiness afoot.

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, MJS said:

They are a contender, just not a Superbowl contender.

 

I've already gone and looked at the past 20 years or so of Superbowl winners and losers and yes, there are a few rare cases where a team goes to the Superbowl without having won a playoff game recently, but the vast majority go to the playoffs and win a playoff game first (usually a bunch of times, actually) before going to the Superbowl.

 

In fact there are boat loads of teams who go to the playoffs and win playoff games many years in a row without even getting to the Superbowl.

 

So yeah, it can happen and it does rarely happen, but not often. Usually you are tested in the playoffs and have multiple playoff wins in consequitive years before making it to the Superbowl.

 

Chiefs are an excellent example. They went to the playoffs a lot with Alex Smith. Even when they got Mahomes and he had his MVP season they still required more playoff experience. Finally, after many years of making the playoffs and winning playoff games they went to the Superbowl. That's how it usually happens.

Fair enough.  I like your argument. 

 

But you have the Eagles, Broncos, Panthers, Falcons and Ravens who either got to the Super Bowl or won it in recent years without having been deep playoff regulars.  So while I'd agree with that getting to the game and winning it usually is done by a team with a lot of playoff experience, there are enough exceptions that I still would be comfortable calling the Bills a Super Bowl contender.  

3 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Pros don’t waste time on long shots unless there’s shadiness afoot.

Now, that may be true, but the folks in this conversation aren't pros.  Long shots are designed for people like us. 

[Mr. WEO]

7 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Fair enough.  I like your argument. 

 

But you have the Eagles, Broncos, Panthers, Falcons and Ravens who either got to the Super Bowl or won it in recent years without having been deep playoff regulars.  So while I'd agree with that getting to the game and winning it usually is done by a team with a lot of playoff experience, there are enough exceptions that I still would be comfortable calling the Bills a Super Bowl contender.  

Now, that may be true, but the folks in this conversation aren't pros.  Long shots are designed for people like us. 

I was careful to say  “smart bettors” and “pros”...

[boater]

15 hours ago, Tipster19 said:

If the Bills can’t take or seriously threaten for the division title this year then they might have to do some big time reassessments come next off season.

These high expectations and potential knee jerk reactions are just what I'm worried about.

 

Despite all the hoopla, NE won't suck as much as people expect. They still have a stout defense and still have the football jedi-master coach in charge. We'll go 1-1 against NE.

 

And contrary to many TSW posters, I consider the 2020 schedule to be tough.

 

The Bills may clear the board, hopefully. Or they may come in second. But in either case... any major retooling would be premature and counter productive.