Taming Josh Allen’s arm: How mechanical tweaks are setting the Bills QB up for an improved 3rd year

[Thurman#1]

On 6/19/2020 at 11:09 AM, Shaw66 said:

I hate to be the party pooper here, but I think this article is a lot of wind that doesn't add up to much at all.  

 

Bottom line, I think Josh Allen's future is all about his ability to read and understand defenses and make decisions.  If his mechanics never improve at all, he's still going to be one of the best throwers in the league, and if his understanding and decision making improve, as they should, he will have a great career. 

 

First of all, this guy does not have a coherent theory of what Allen has to do to "correct" his mechanics.   The article is all over the place.  At one point it quotes one expert who says mechanics start with the feet and work through the thighs, hips and body to the arm.  At another point he quotes an expert who says it's all about the head down.  Well, which is it?  At various points in the article it says his stance is too wide, his feet aren't lined up correctly, his footwork isn't right, his left arm isn't tucked.  It goes on and on.  Have you ever watched the guy throw?  He's a great thrower.  Great.  Right now he throws better than most QBs in the league.  The article makes it sound like every aspect of his throwing motion needs to be rebuilt.   It's nonsense.

 

Now, I understand that at this level, coaches work with QBs on little aspects of their mechanics.  I get it. I have no doubt they work with Allen on one thing or another, but Josh Allen is not some kind of rebuilding project. 

 

Now's when someone chimes in and says, "well, if he fixed his footwork, he'd be more accurate, and if he's more accurate he'd get more yards after catch" or my personal favorite "he'd throw more receivers open."   Please.  Just give him time to develop into a better decision maker.

 

Look at the stats.  He had an 85 passer rating.  If he completed two passes a game more for 6.7 yards per pass (that was his average last season, he'd have a 93 passer rating and he'd be 12th in league, with Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz and Aaron Rodgers and on the heels of DeShaun Watson.   He can complete two more passes a game just by understanding that checking down is the right throw.   He might complete two more passes a game just by having Stephon Diggs on the field.  When he's really learned to read defenses and made decisions, he's going to complete five more passes a game, his passer rating will be 104 and he's solidly in the top 10 in the league. 

 

 Sure, Palmer and others are working with him on mechanics, just as someone pointed out they still work with Rodgers.  And they work with Brady.  They always work on mechanics, with every quarterback.   But that work doesn't make big changes in a QB.  That work results in a better throw once in a while.  Allen came into the league a better thrower than Rodgers or Brady.  The mechanical improvements Allen will make pale in comparison to what football maturity is going to do for his game. 

 

 

I greatly disagree, Shaw. You say he doesn't have a coherent theory, but he does. It's just that either it's not one that you want to hear. The problem is that his problems aren't a one-step fix. That doesn't mean it's not a coherent theory. Theories can be coherent but still talk about a problem having more than one component contributing to a problem. People often want to hear that whatever fix for whatever problem you have should be simple and not multi-phasic. Sometimes that's realistic. More often it's not, particularly as a system which has a problem often develops further problems in an attempt to compensate for the effects of the first problem.

 

He's got mechanics problems. Nobody who has known what he's talking about has ever said different about Allen. Including Allen himself, Dorsey, Jordan Palmer ... everyone. You say he's not a rebuilding project and that's right, he's not rebuilding something he had. But he's absolutely a project. Has been since day one. And he's progressing. He's working the process.

 

It's interesting to see what the details that he's working on are. 

 

And yeah, guys work with Rodgers and Brady on mechanics. It's a great example, but misses the point that both Brady and Rodgers took a long time to get where they could be what they are now. Both of them had a year (Rodgers a lot more) when they could focus on long-term improvement in things like grooving their mechanics, something Allen needed even more than those two did as youngsters, and yet he didn't get the time. Yeah, those guys still work on mechanics, but at this point it's offseason tweaks on the smaller problems that crop up during the season when they don't have time to work on mechanics. Every pro athlete goes back to basics in the offseason. What Allen has to do goes far beyond that.

 

And what McCarthy did to Rodgers in terms of mechanics absolutely did. You can look at his preseasons early and he wasn't early what he's become. He made massive progress before he saw significant NFL regular season experience, particularly in what McCarthy called his "Quarterback Camp," and you can follow it through Rodgers' preseasons.

 

 

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The MMQB: "You documented how fortunate it was that Aaron Rodgers didn’t have to play the first couple of years—he just wasn’t ready."

 

McGinn: “He was a very poor player here for his first two summers and regular-season practices. Fortunately for him, and he knows that down deep, he didn’t have to play early. His delivery was a mess, bad body language, he didn’t know how to deal with teammates. He learned so much from Brett Favre on how to in some ways be one of the guys and relate, and he became much more of a leader. He was really poor and how many great players have ever had a start like that? Not that many. A lot of scouts look at that exhibition tape those first two years and he was a little bit better the third year, but not to any degree, and then he just really developed. He lost a lot of close games in ’08, but by ’09 he was playing great and by 2010 he was maybe the best in the business. "

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/06/13/themmqb-exit-interview-bob-mcginn-green-bay-packers-milwaukee-journal-sentinel-nfl-beat-writer

 

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And yeah, Allen has to work more on decision-making. Sure. But his passing problems are real. His long-ball problems last year are a perfect example. Those weren't decision problems. They were great decisions and very bad passes.

 

It's not reasonable to say he's one of the best throwers in the league. He's not. One of the most powerful? Absolutely. One of the best on some of his throws? Yup. But consistently one of the best throwers? He just isn't. He'll thread a gorgeous needle one down and then the next throw three feet over his receiver's head. He's good ... inconsistently, and it sure looks like a very significant amount of that is due to his mechanics problems and inconsistency. Do you get coaches telling kids, "Do it like Josh Allen does. Watch film and do it like that"? No, you don't, and for the obvious reasons.

 

I love the way he improved. He definitely improved in throwing consistency between his first and second year. But he still has a way to go.

Edited June 20, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I greatly disagree, Shaw. You say he doesn't have a coherent theory, but he does. It's just that either it's not one that you want to hear. The problem is that his problems aren't a one-step fix. That doesn't mean it's not a coherent theory. Theories can be coherent but still talk about a problem having more than one component contributing to a problem. People often want to hear that whatever fix for whatever problem you have should be simple and not multi-phasic. Sometimes that's realistic. More often it's not, particularly as a system which has a problem often develops further problems in an attempt to compensate for the effects of the first problem.

 

He's got mechanics problems. Nobody who has known what he's talking about has ever said different about Allen. Including Allen himself, Dorsey, Jordan Palmer ... everyone. You say he's not a rebuilding project and that's right, he's not rebuilding something he had. But he's absolutely a project. Has been since day one. And he's progressing. He's working the process.

 

It's interesting to see what the details that he's working on are. 

 

And yeah, guys work with Rodgers and Brady on mechanics. It's a great example, but misses the point that both Brady and Rodgers took a long time to get where they could be what they are now. Both of them had a year (Rodgers a lot more) when they could focus on long-term improvement in things like grooving their mechanics, something Allen needed even more than those two did as youngsters, and yet he didn't get the time. Yeah, those guys still work on mechanics, but at this point it's offseason tweaks on the smaller problems that crop up during the season when they don't have time to work on mechanics. Every pro athlete goes back to basics in the offseason. What Allen has to do goes far beyond that.

 

And what McCarthy did to Rodgers in terms of mechanics absolutely did. You can look at his preseasons early and he wasn't early what he's become. He made massive progress before he saw significant NFL regular season experience, particularly in what McCarthy called his "Quarterback Camp," and you can follow it through Rodgers' preseasons.

 

 

--------------------------

 

The MMQB: "You documented how fortunate it was that Aaron Rodgers didn’t have to play the first couple of years—he just wasn’t ready."

 

McGinn: “He was a very poor player here for his first two summers and regular-season practices. Fortunately for him, and he knows that down deep, he didn’t have to play early. His delivery was a mess, bad body language, he didn’t know how to deal with teammates. He learned so much from Brett Favre on how to in some ways be one of the guys and relate, and he became much more of a leader. He was really poor and how many great players have ever had a start like that? Not that many. A lot of scouts look at that exhibition tape those first two years and he was a little bit better the third year, but not to any degree, and then he just really developed. He lost a lot of close games in ’08, but by ’09 he was playing great and by 2010 he was maybe the best in the business. "

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/06/13/themmqb-exit-interview-bob-mcginn-green-bay-packers-milwaukee-journal-sentinel-nfl-beat-writer

 

--------------------------

 

 

 

And yeah, Allen has to work more on decision-making. Sure. But his passing problems are real. His long-ball problems last year are a perfect example. Those weren't decision problems. They were great decisions and very bad passes.

 

It's not reasonable to say he's one of the best throwers in the league. He's not. One of the most powerful? Absolutely. One of the best on some of his throws? Yup. But consistently one of the best throwers? He just isn't. He'll thread a gorgeous needle one down and then the next throw three feet over his receiver's head. He's good ... inconsistently, and it sure looks like a very significant amount of that is due to his mechanics problems and inconsistency. Do you get coaches telling kids, "Do it like Josh Allen does. Watch film and do it like that"? No, you don't, and for the obvious reasons.

 

I love the way he improved. He definitely improved in throwing consistency between his first and second year. But he still has a way to go.

Yeah, we disagree.  

 

I think Allen will always be working on his mechanics, just like more or less every QB in the league is working on his mechanics.  I just don't think that mechanics are going to make him a great quarterback.  I think the mental processing skills are what will make him great. 

 

That's an interesting quote about Rodgers.  But I'd point out to you that although he says Rodgers' mechanics were bad, most of the quote is about Rodgers needing to learn leadership and team management. As for mechanics, take a look at video of Rodgers throwing in college, and look again at Allen. Allen was a much better college thrower than Rodgers. Rodgers looked like he's a demonstration video for how his peewee coach told him to throw. Very mechanical. Allen is a natural thrower. 

 

I agree mechanics are important, and they always need work. I just think 80% of Allen's improvement will come from improving mental processing, and 20% will come from mechanics. Fixing his mechanics is not going to make Allen a Hall of Fame quarterback. Fixing his mental processing and tinkering with his mechanics will. 

[Logic]

Just wanted to chime in and thank both @Thurman#1 and @Shaw66 for their excellent posts and say that I think both are at least partly correct.

Shaw is correct in saying that the biggest improvement will likely come from Allen learning to read, process, and understand defenses better. Thurm is correct in saying that inconsistency in mechanics really hinders Allen. Indeed, on some plays he does everything just exactly right, and the result is usually a pinpoint laser that hits his receiver in the chest. However, on the plays where his accuracy is off, where his ball sails 3 feet past his receiver's outstretched hand, you can almost ALWAYS watch the replay back and see that this body was in a wonky position. He either didn't "set the hallway" properly, didn't step into his throw, didn't transfer his weight efficiently, etc, etc. I don't pretend to know the finer points of quarterback mechanics, but I CAN see when a quarterback's body doesn't look quite right when he throws it. Here is a great example. Look at the Cowboys throw (even though he's on the move), and look at the Dolphins throw. You can see on that second throw what "poor mechanics" look like in action. It's THOSE types of throws that won't improve even if he learns to read defenses better. Even when he reads the coverage correctly and picks the right target, he needs to be able to get the ball there with consistency.
 

Allen will always miss some throws, as all quarterbacks do. He'll never be perfect. But I DO believe that there's merit to the idea that an improvement in the consistency of his mechanics will lead to an overall much more productive version of Josh Allen. 

If he JUST improved his throwing consistency or JUST improved his reading of defenses, I think he'd become a consistently league average level passer who, paired with this defense, can win you 9-10 games a year. If he does BOTH of these things, I believe he will become a legitimate "Franchise QB" who can win you ballgames on his own and compete for Lombardi trophies. I feel strongly that both the reading of defenses AND the improvement of consistency in throwing mechanics are necessary for Allen to reach his lofty ceiling, and I personally feel that the importance of each is closer to 50/50 than 80/20.  

[Shaw66]

AaaaThanks Logic. 

 

Maybe I can help refine the point a bit. Looking at the Dolphins throw, it's almost mystifying that he misses so badly. Mystifying because we've seen him make throws like that many times.  That's not a hard throw.  

 

The fact that he makes that throw most of the time and misses it badly here is evidence of inconsistency.  His mechanics were bad on that throw, but that doesn't mean that he is a mechanically bad throw.  It just means his mechanics were bad on that throw.  

 

The problem on the Dolphins throw is that for one reason or another he didn't get himself ready.  Now, he knows how to get himself ready, because we've seen him do it often. 

 

In other words, on that throw, his mechanics weren't good, because he did something else wrong.  Decided too late, didn't move his feet like he usually does, something.

 

That's not a flaw in his throwing motion, which is what I think about as mechanics.  His throwing motion is fine; his consistency isn't. That problem is trying to get him do every time what he already does most of the time.  That is not a problem that involves changing the angle at which he normally throws, or getting proper weight shift, or whatever. 

 

It's semantics, to some extent. Certainly developing the right habits is working on mechanics; it just isn't correcting flaws. 

 

As I said, go watch Aaron Rodgers highlights from college, and you'll wonder how he ever made in the pros.  He couldn't make half the throws he needed to make in the pros; Allen was obviously a natural. 

 

A bad thrower needs to work on mechanics.  Allen is a good thrower.  He needs to work on whatever makes him inconsistent. That may or may not be mechanics.  

Edited June 20, 2020 by Shaw66

[Shaw66]

One other point I want to make about this, and it explains why I think too much is being made of Allen's mechanics.

 

How many of Allen's incomplete pass last season were caused by bad mechanics? I am certain no one here knows the answer to that question. Many of his incompletions were throwaways, some were drops, some were passes that were well defended.  How many were caused by bad reads, by pressures, by deflections?  Some were bad throws, but every bad throw is not evidence of bad mechanics. Bad throws are primarily evidence that the thrower isn't perfect.  Pitchers don't throw strikes on every pitch.

 

Allen had 190 incompletions last season. As I suggested in my first post, I'd be surprised if more than 30 of them (2 per game) were the result of bad mechanics. So even if his mechanics could be corrected so that he was perfect, he'd have two more completions per game, which would raise him only to about 12th or 15th in passer rating in the league. A nice improvement, but only borderline franchise QB territory.  I would be really hard pressed to believe that he has 5 incompletions per game caused by bad mechanics - he just isn't making that many bad throws, game after game. 

 

More importantly, what was the league average for incompletions caused by bad mechanics? How far above or below the league average was Allen?  If he was 15 worse than the league average, getting to average is going to be only a marginal improvement - maybe a completion a game. How many bad-mechanics related incompletions did Rodgers have?  Brady?  Brees?  They aren't perfect, so some of their throws exhibit bad mechanics, too.  

 

Frankly, I think mechanics is a topic that's fun to talk about and a topic where detailed discussion, like the one from CoverOne, are available, so fans focus on it.  I don't believe that mechanics has very much to do with Allen's mediocre (at best) quarterbacking over the past two seasons. 

[Don Otreply]

I to will clarify my earlier post, Allen will use technics from various schools of thought on QB mechanics that can help him, and really, isn’t that what we fans hope for? 
 

Shaws66s point about reading defenses better/quicker will certainly make Allen better at his craft.

 

As said previously, the combination of both would be what we actually want the most. 
 

Go Bills!!!

[ganesh]

On 6/19/2020 at 7:39 AM, Shaw66 said:

I hate to be the party pooper here, but I think this article is a lot of wind that doesn't add up to much at all.  

 

Bottom line, I think Josh Allen's future is all about his ability to read and understand defenses and make decisions.  If his mechanics never improve at all, he's still going to be one of the best throwers in the league, and if his understanding and decision making improve, as they should, he will have a great career. 

 

First of all, this guy does not have a coherent theory of what Allen has to do to "correct" his mechanics.   The article is all over the place.  At one point it quotes one expert who says mechanics start with the feet and work through the thighs, hips and body to the arm.  At another point he quotes an expert who says it's all about the head down.  Well, which is it?  At various points in the article it says his stance is too wide, his feet aren't lined up correctly, his footwork isn't right, his left arm isn't tucked.  It goes on and on.  Have you ever watched the guy throw?  He's a great thrower.  Great.  Right now he throws better than most QBs in the league.  The article makes it sound like every aspect of his throwing motion needs to be rebuilt.   It's nonsense.

 

Now, I understand that at this level, coaches work with QBs on little aspects of their mechanics.  I get it. I have no doubt they work with Allen on one thing or another, but Josh Allen is not some kind of rebuilding project. 

 

Now's when someone chimes in and says, "well, if he fixed his footwork, he'd be more accurate, and if he's more accurate he'd get more yards after catch" or my personal favorite "he'd throw more receivers open."   Please.  Just give him time to develop into a better decision maker.

 

Look at the stats.  He had an 85 passer rating.  If he completed two passes a game more for 6.7 yards per pass (that was his average last season, he'd have a 93 passer rating and he'd be 12th in league, with Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz and Aaron Rodgers and on the heels of DeShaun Watson.   He can complete two more passes a game just by understanding that checking down is the right throw.   He might complete two more passes a game just by having Stephon Diggs on the field.  When he's really learned to read defenses and made decisions, he's going to complete five more passes a game, his passer rating will be 104 and he's solidly in the top 10 in the league. 

 

 Sure, Palmer and others are working with him on mechanics, just as someone pointed out they still work with Rodgers.  And they work with Brady.  They always work on mechanics, with every quarterback.   But that work doesn't make big changes in a QB.  That work results in a better throw once in a while.  Allen came into the league a better thrower than Rodgers or Brady.  The mechanical improvements Allen will make pale in comparison to what football maturity is going to do for his game. 

Agree with this 100%.  you improve decision making and you become a better QB.  The mechanics is always tinkered with and can be taught.