GunnerBill Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 41 minutes ago, eball said: I disagree. Looking at what Josh has done and what he had to work with, combined with how raw he was coming into the NFL, he is arguably in the top half of NFL QBs entering the 2020 season. Yes, I'd trade him straight up for Russell Wilson today -- but I'd still hate to do it. Homer or not, I think Josh is going to go through the roof starting this year. I think sometimes the eye test matters as much as the numbers. Tyrod's numbers is his first two years here suggested he was in the 12-16 range. The eye test told you he was more like 18-22. I am not as high overall on him as @eball but I understand what he is saying which is less "give Josh a pass because he has not had elite playmakers" and more "Josh's numbers don't quite reflect how well he played at times because his supporting cast let him down too often." It is unquestionably true. The interesting thing in this thread (and I have stayed out of it so far because I have been arguing in two threads already this spring that Dak is underrated) but all the numbers on Dak suggest that what my eyes told me there this season was true too - his supporting cast also let him down far too often. He had bigger names to work with than Josh but his cast really underplayed its reputation last year. The numbers for the top 4 QBs hurt by drops was posted elsewhere on the board and that top 4 was miles clear of 5th. Yes Josh was at the top but Dak was in that 4 too. There is a tendency from Bills fans to afford excuses to Josh that they don't then afford to others even when the same evidence suggests it applies there too. I think Josh's ceiling is higher than Dak. But if Josh plays as well in 2020 as Dak did in 2019 the Bills win at least 12 games. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 1 minute ago, GunnerBill said: I think sometimes the eye test matters as much as the numbers. Tyrod's numbers is his first two years here suggested he was in the 12-16 range. The eye test told you he was more like 18-22. I am not as high overall on him as @eball but I understand what he is saying which is less "give Josh a pass because he has not had elite playmakers" and more "Josh's numbers don't quite reflect how well he played at times because his supporting cast let him down too often." It is unquestionably true. The interesting thing in this thread (and I have stayed out of it so far because I have been arguing in two threads already this spring that Dak is underrated) but all the numbers on Dak suggest that what my eyes told me there this season was true too - his supporting cast also let him down far too often. He had bigger names to work with than Josh but his cast really underplayed its reputation last year. The numbers for the top 4 QBs hurt by drops was posted elsewhere on the board and that top 4 was miles clear of 5th. Yes Josh was at the top but Dak was in that 4 too. There is a tendency from Bills fans to afford excuses to Josh that they don't then afford to others even when the same evidence suggests it applies there too. I think Josh's ceiling is higher than Dak. But if Josh plays as well in 2020 as Dak did in 2019 the Bills win at least 12 games. I think you have to qualify this as plays as well as Dak did in 2019 statistically, I mean the guy just piled on the garbage time stats and folded when they needed plays made practically all season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: I think sometimes the eye test matters as much as the numbers. Tyrod's numbers is his first two years here suggested he was in the 12-16 range. The eye test told you he was more like 18-22. I am not as high overall on him as @eball but I understand what he is saying which is less "give Josh a pass because he has not had elite playmakers" and more "Josh's numbers don't quite reflect how well he played at times because his supporting cast let him down too often." It is unquestionably true. The interesting thing in this thread (and I have stayed out of it so far because I have been arguing in two threads already this spring that Dak is underrated) but all the numbers on Dak suggest that what my eyes told me there this season was true too - his supporting cast also let him down far too often. He had bigger names to work with than Josh but his cast really underplayed its reputation last year. The numbers for the top 4 QBs hurt by drops was posted elsewhere on the board and that top 4 was miles clear of 5th. Yes Josh was at the top but Dak was in that 4 too. There is a tendency from Bills fans to afford excuses to Josh that they don't then afford to others even when the same evidence suggests it applies there too. I think Josh's ceiling is higher than Dak. But if Josh plays as well in 2020 as Dak did in 2019 the Bills win at least 12 games. The overwhelming majority of this board had no interest in Cooper as an FA because they claimed he had way too many drops, shrinks in big moments, and is wildly overrated. They then ding Dak for not doing more with a $25M WR. Par for the course, really. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 10 minutes ago, FireChans said: The overwhelming majority of this board had no interest in Cooper as an FA because they claimed he had way too many drops, shrinks in big moments, and is wildly overrated. They then ding Dak for not doing more with a $25M WR. Par for the course, really. Huh? Dak also had another 1,000 yard receiver in Gallup and an 800 yard receiver in Cobb. Not to mention a 1,357 yard runner in Elliot. And a top OL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 29 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: I think you have to qualify this as plays as well as Dak did in 2019 statistically, I mean the guy just piled on the garbage time stats and folded when they needed plays made practically all season. See I disagree. I think his playmakers let him down in crunch spots too often and that is exactly my point in that post. 8 minutes ago, Doc said: Huh? Dak also had another 1,000 yard receiver in Gallup and an 800 yard receiver in Cobb. Not to mention a 1,357 yard runner in Elliot. And a top OL. Yep. And were in that top 4 "by miles" for dropped balls. If the skill position players had made the plays that were there for them Dallas wins 10 easy. It can't be "the drops stats matter for Josh but not for Dak". All I am asking for is that people are fair and consistent. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 10 minutes ago, Doc said: Huh? Dak also had another 1,000 yard receiver in Gallup and an 800 yard receiver in Cobb. Not to mention a 1,357 yard runner in Elliot. And a top OL. Yeah I knew all that Doc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 (edited) 9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: See I disagree. I think his playmakers let him down in crunch spots too often and that is exactly my point in that post. Yep. And were in that top 4 "by miles" for dropped balls. If the skill position players had made the plays that were there for them Dallas wins 10 easy. It can't be "the drops stats matter for Josh but not for Dak". All I am asking for is that people are fair and consistent. Honestly, no one in any of the recent Dak topics, has ever brought up his WR drops stats. Not ONCE. I don’t think we’ve had a Josh Allen topic where drops weren’t brought up. Edited June 2, 2020 by FireChans 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 41 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: I think sometimes the eye test matters as much as the numbers. Tyrod's numbers is his first two years here suggested he was in the 12-16 range. The eye test told you he was more like 18-22. I am not as high overall on him as @eball but I understand what he is saying which is less "give Josh a pass because he has not had elite playmakers" and more "Josh's numbers don't quite reflect how well he played at times because his supporting cast let him down too often." It is unquestionably true. The interesting thing in this thread (and I have stayed out of it so far because I have been arguing in two threads already this spring that Dak is underrated) but all the numbers on Dak suggest that what my eyes told me there this season was true too - his supporting cast also let him down far too often. He had bigger names to work with than Josh but his cast really underplayed its reputation last year. The numbers for the top 4 QBs hurt by drops was posted elsewhere on the board and that top 4 was miles clear of 5th. Yes Josh was at the top but Dak was in that 4 too. There is a tendency from Bills fans to afford excuses to Josh that they don't then afford to others even when the same evidence suggests it applies there too. I think Josh's ceiling is higher than Dak. But if Josh plays as well in 2020 as Dak did in 2019 the Bills win at least 12 games. I like what you say about Tyrod. That's exactly right. HIs first year he put up really nice numbers, second year not bad, but he always looked one-domensional somehow. I'm not a Dak fan. My eye test tells me he doesn't have the intangibles. He doesn't seem to lead very well. He doesn't improvise well. He throws better than I thought, and he runs nicely, but I don't think he's the full package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billl Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 49 minutes ago, Doc said: Again, 9th in TDs among QBs. The game is about scoring, not completion percentage. So a huge component of being a good QB is having an OC who calls sneaks from the 1 yard line. That makes perfect sense. 21 minutes ago, Doc said: Huh? Dak also had another 1,000 yard receiver in Gallup and an 800 yard receiver in Cobb. Not to mention a 1,357 yard runner in Elliot. And a top OL. So you’re saying that a QB who had 4,900 yards passing had receivers who combined for 4,900 receiving yards? /furiously scribbling notes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 56 minutes ago, Doc said: Again, 9th in TDs among QBs. The game is about scoring, not completion percentage. I’m not sure that stat is accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billl Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, FireChans said: I’m not sure that stat is accurate. He’s tied for 9th/10th with Jimmy G. Remove the 1 yard TD sneaks, and he’s tied for 16th with Daniel Jones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: See I disagree. I think his playmakers let him down in crunch spots too often and that is exactly my point in that post. Yep. And were in that top 4 "by miles" for dropped balls. If the skill position players had made the plays that were there for them Dallas wins 10 easy. It can't be "the drops stats matter for Josh but not for Dak". All I am asking for is that people are fair and consistent. Dak had drops no question, not to the extent Allen did but they certainly mattere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, Billl said: He’s tied for 9th/10th with Jimmy G. Remove the 1 yard TD sneaks, and he’s tied for 16th with Daniel Jones. Do you have a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billl Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Dak had drops no question, not to the extent Allen did but they certainly mattere Bills had 26. Cowboys had 24. http://hosted.stats.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232 Or they were tied with 36 depending on what site you prefer. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/advanced.htm#all_advanced_receiving Edited June 2, 2020 by Billl 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 Just now, Billl said: Bills had 26. Cowboys had 24. http://hosted.stats.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232 The Cowboys also threw the ball 84 more times than the Bills. It's drops/attempt that matters, not total drops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billl Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, FireChans said: Do you have a link? https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stat/total-touchdowns 9 rushing and 1 receiving for Allen Edited June 2, 2020 by Billl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 16 minutes ago, Billl said: https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stat/total-touchdowns 9 rushing and 1 receiving for Allen The reason why I think that stat is incorrect is because that website is including playoff and regular season. Which is really stupid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 39 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Yep. And were in that top 4 "by miles" for dropped balls. If the skill position players had made the plays that were there for them Dallas wins 10 easy. It can't be "the drops stats matter for Josh but not for Dak". All I am asking for is that people are fair and consistent. 37 minutes ago, FireChans said: Yeah I knew all that Doc. 28 minutes ago, Billl said: So you’re saying that a QB who had 4,900 yards passing had receivers who combined for 4,900 receiving yards? /furiously scribbling notes The point is that Prescott had a better supporting cast around him. Not to mention he also threw the ball 135 more times than Josh. Taking the drop stats into account, Josh's receivers dropped 1 pass per 17.7 attempts versus 24.8 for Prescott. 18 minutes ago, Billl said: He’s tied for 9th/10th with Jimmy G. Remove the 1 yard TD sneaks, and he’s tied for 16th with Daniel Jones. Why would you remove TD sneaks? And he's 9th by virtue of the fact that he played in 15 games and 1 series of the last game whereas Jimmy G played all 16 games fully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Doc said: The point is that Prescott had a better supporting cast around him. Not to mention he also threw the ball 135 more times than Josh. Taking the drop stats into account, Josh's receivers dropped 1 pass per 17.7 attempts versus 24.8 for Prescott. Why would you remove TD sneaks? And he's 9th by virtue of the fact that he played in 15 games and 1 series of the last game whereas Jimmy G played all 16 games fully. That website includes playoff games and is irrelevant. Josh was not ninth. PFR has the difference in drop% between the Bills and Dallas at 1%. Buffalo at 7, Dallas at 6. NFL median is around 4.9. So it wasn’t as bad as the Bills, so it doesn’t matter? Cool. 7 minutes ago, ScottLaw said: Fans here also laughed at the comparison of Allen and Daniel Jones....like it wasn’t close at all when in reality they had extremely similar numbers. Allen in his second year and Jones as a rookie. I just feel a lot of people here don’t watch the rest of the league. I guarantee 90% of the folks espousing on Dak watched two or less Dallas games this year. The dude with 14 career GWD’s in 3 years just doesn’t show composure or lead well. Lol sure. Edited June 2, 2020 by FireChans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, FireChans said: That website includes playoff games and is irrelevant. Josh was not ninth. PFR has the difference in drop% between the Bills and Dallas at 1%. Buffalo at 7, Dallas at 6. NFL median is around 4.9. So it wasn’t as bad as the Bills, so it doesn’t matter? Cool. Ignoring what I wrote above about drops per attempts. Even cooler. You're right, Josh wasn't 9th. The NFL.com re-designed their website and it's crap for stuff like that now. He was actually 6th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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