Kittle looking for a "Kittle Deal"

[Doc]

28 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

he knows he doesn't have to

 

True.  And Kittle doesn't have to play until week 8 and potentially wreck their chances at returning to the SB.

[Mr. WEO]

20 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

True.  And Kittle doesn't have to play until week 8 and potentially wreck their chances at returning to the SB.

 

That should improve his value...

 

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

lol no one is offering a TE 20M next year.  Just stop with that.  Michael Thomas,  an actual elite WR wasn’t offered that.

 

these takes.....so much heat!!

 

Michael Thomas's deal was 5 years 100 million exactly 20 million on the dot. I think Kittle could with another very good season could easily command 18 million aav. TE's that can block at an elite, be versatile in other components of the game, and haul in 1000 plus yards a season in the receiving game are rare and hard to find. Kittle is as valuable to the 49ers offense as Thomas is to the Saints offense. 

[Mr. WEO]

6 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Michael Thomas's deal was 5 years 100 million exactly 20 million on the dot. I think Kittle could with another very good season could easily command 18 million aav. TE's that can block at an elite, be versatile in other components of the game, and haul in 1000 plus yards a season in the receiving game are rare and hard to find. Kittle is as valuable to the 49ers offense as Thomas is to the Saints offense. 

 

Thomas got 5 years 96.25M per sportrac.com.

 

49ers are a run 1st team and a mediocre passing team.  Kittle catching a bunch of 5 yard passes and getting 6  more YAC isn't worth top WR money.

 

There are only 5 WR getting annual average of 18M or higher:  Jones, Cooper, Thomas, OBJ and Hill.  "1000 plus yards" this year will never put Kittle in that earning group.

 

No team is going to pay any TE 18M....because that's not what they cost.  Ask the Saints who they would rather have for 18-19 M a year, Thomas or Kittle.  I bet they would rather have Thomas at his current contract than Kittle at 11M a year.

 

At some point Kittle can easily be the best paid TE in the NFL (unless his output drops off this year).  He's not going to get 18M.

 

 

 

[Doc]

15 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Thomas got 5 years 96.25M per sportrac.com.

 

49ers are a run 1st team and a mediocre passing team.  Kittle catching a bunch of 5 yard passes and getting 6  more YAC isn't worth top WR money.

 

There are only 5 WR getting annual average of 18M or higher:  Jones, Cooper, Thomas, OBJ and Hill.  "1000 plus yards" this year will never put Kittle in that earning group.

 

No team is going to pay any TE 18M....because that's not what they cost.  Ask the Saints who they would rather have for 18-19 M a year, Thomas or Kittle.  I bet they would rather have Thomas at his current contract than Kittle at 11M a year.

 

At some point Kittle can easily be the best paid TE in the NFL (unless his output drops off this year).  He's not going to get 18M.

 

This makes no sense.  Kittle averaged more yards per reception (12.4) than Thomas (11.6).  That he did what he did in limited opportunities because, as you said, the 49'ers are a run-first team, is even more impressive and points-out how important he is to the team.

 

And I'm not sure where you got that a) he caught 5 yard passes and got 6 more yards or b) anyone is saying he's worth $20M/year.

[NoSaint]

7 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Michael Thomas's deal was 5 years 100 million exactly 20 million on the dot. I think Kittle could with another very good season could easily command 18 million aav. TE's that can block at an elite, be versatile in other components of the game, and haul in 1000 plus yards a season in the receiving game are rare and hard to find. Kittle is as valuable to the 49ers offense as Thomas is to the Saints offense. 

the niners wouldn’t pause for even a second on which they’d take at $20m... and the answer isn’t kittle.

Edited June 2, 2020 by NoSaint

[Mr. WEO]

13 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Because if Kittle hits the open market in 2021 after posting another strong season some other team will easily offer an elite TE close to 20 million per-year. Travis Kelce being underpaid and there not being another elite TE on the market doesn't deflate Kittle's market. Kittle is a much better TE than Hooper who got 10 million aav. So if I am Lynch I offer about 15 million as my offer as a means to get Kittle under his market value. I don't offer 18+ million because that's his best range, but 15ish million offers him security and you a discount. 

 

53 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

This makes no sense.  Kittle averaged more yards per reception (12.4) than Thomas (11.6).  That he did what he did in limited opportunities because, as you said, the 49'ers are a run-first team, is even more impressive and points-out how important he is to the team.

 

And I'm not sure where you got that a) he caught 5 yard passes and got 6 more yards or b) anyone is saying he's worth $20M/year.

 

18M, 20M.  All equally ridiculous.

 

Sanders and Samuel will take even more targets away from Kittle next year.  Kittle had a monster 2018 because the backup QBs dumped off to him a lot.  Jimmy G isn't going to do that--as we saw in 2019.  Deebo Samuel simply showed up and got 800 yards receiving--and almost 1000 yards total offense and 6 TDs.  

 

He's a top TE, but this isn't Mahomes to Kelce.  His output as a receiver may decrease further this year--even as they become more of a passing team, given the output of Samuel/Sanders/Bourne.  They can't pay him like a top 5 WR. 

[Doc]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

18M, 20M.  All equally ridiculous.

 

Sanders and Samuel will take even more targets away from Kittle next year.  Kittle had a monster 2018 because the backup QBs dumped off to him a lot.  Jimmy G isn't going to do that--as we saw in 2019.  Deebo Samuel simply showed up and got 800 yards receiving--and almost 1000 yards total offense and 6 TDs.  

 

He's a top TE, but this isn't Mahomes to Kelce.  His output as a receiver may decrease further this year--even as they become more of a passing team, given the output of Samuel/Sanders/Bourne.  They can't pay him like a top 5 WR. 

Kittle is the superstar on that office. His targets aren’t going to decrease much, if at all. 
 

And even if you were to say that at best he’ll get 75 yards per game with Jimmy G, again that’s 1200 yards per season and receivers who can produce that are getting $15 million a year.  If I’m his agent I start in the $18-$20 million range and then look to split the difference at around $14-15 million. 

[Mr. WEO]

19 minutes ago, Doc said:

Kittle is the superstar on that office. His targets aren’t going to decrease much, if at all. 
 

And even if you were to say that at best he’ll get 75 yards per game with Jimmy G, again that’s 1200 yards per season and receivers who can produce that are getting $15 million a year.  If I’m his agent I start in the $18-$20 million range and then look to split the difference at around $14-15 million. 

 

Already did, with Jimmy G/Samuel/Sanders.

 

The NFL doesn't pay TE's like WRs doc.  That was settled 5 years ago when the last one tried.  Graham was Kittle (or better--with 3900 yards and an insane 41 TDs in his first 4 seasons) and he made the same argument.  He lost arbitration to be classified as a WR.  

 

Hey why not start at 30M and split the difference at 18-20M?

 

 

Edited June 2, 2020 by Mr. WEO

[Doc]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

Already did, with Jimmy G/Samuel/Sanders.

 

The NFL doesn't pay TE's like WRs doc.  That was settled 5 years ago when the last one tried.  Graham was Kittle (or better--with 3900 yards and an insane 41 TDs in his first 4 seasons) and he made the same argument.  He lost arbitration to be classified as a WR.  And no one offered him WR money.

 

Hey why not start at 30M and split the difference at 18-20M?

 

Why not $30B?  Come on, even you know why.

 

In 3 games at the beginning of 2018 Kittle averaged 75 yards/game with Jimmy G.  It didn't change last year.  He is and will be the focal point of that offense.

[billsfan89]

2 hours ago, NoSaint said:

the niners wouldn’t pause for even a second on which they’d take at $20m... and the answer isn’t kittle.

 

It's not an apples to apples choice though, my only point in brining up the Thomas contract is that the market is set at 20 million aav for a top pass catcher. The 49ers don't have the choice between Thomas and Kittle they have the choice to either let Kittle walk or pay him against the market. Do you think that if Kittle has another 1000 yard season and is healthy that some team wouldn't pony up at least 17-18 million aav for him? Elite TE's are the hardest to find and one hitting the market in his prime is going to command a huge deal. 

[Chicken Boo]

On 5/31/2020 at 10:57 PM, NewEra said:

Well, that’s your opinion.  
 

I think Kittle is a better run blocker and “slightly more aggressive after the catch” is an understatement.  Kelce is great after the catch, but not nearly as aggressive (which was your choice of words).  Kittle is faster and incredible locker room guy.  Similar hands and route running.  Kelce has the best qb in the league while Kittle doesn’t even have a top 10 qb.  Doesn’t hurt that Kelce is playing with Tyreek Hill 

 

Kelce blocks as well as any tight end in football and was putting up numbers before Mahomes was even drafted and before Tyreek Hill became a factor.

[billsfan89]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

18M, 20M.  All equally ridiculous.

 

Sanders and Samuel will take even more targets away from Kittle next year.  Kittle had a monster 2018 because the backup QBs dumped off to him a lot.  Jimmy G isn't going to do that--as we saw in 2019.  Deebo Samuel simply showed up and got 800 yards receiving--and almost 1000 yards total offense and 6 TDs.  

 

He's a top TE, but this isn't Mahomes to Kelce.  His output as a receiver may decrease further this year--even as they become more of a passing team, given the output of Samuel/Sanders/Bourne.  They can't pay him like a top 5 WR. 

 

In 2019 Kittle broke 1000 yards on an offense that was nursing leads late and running heavy (and Jimmy G is not an elite QB at this point.) If he has another similar season in 2020 he will along with his elite blocking skills and versatility to line up in the backfield or anywhere on the field have established 3 seasons worth of elite TE play before hitting the market at age 27. I could easily see another team ponying up around 18 million aav to get an elite dynamic piece that is rare. 

 

I would disagree that Samuel and their receivers are going to take away targets in any significant manner. Sanders is no longer there and while they did draft a WR in round 1 I think it will take at least a year or two for Alyuk to take away significant targets. I also think that if anything having Samuel and other better receiving options will only help Kittle pop bigger numbers as the attention is less on him. 

 

Travis Kelce signed his contract that pays him about 9-10 million a season before the 2016 season. When he signed that deal he was coming off of back to back 800+ yard seasons with 5 TD’s in each season. Even before Mahomes in 2018 he had out performed that deal and if he hit the open market today would see a greater than 50% raise from his current salary. Ask yourself this question if 2 years ago Kelce hit the open market what would he have commanded? I would say at least 15 million. Kelce’s deal being deflated doesn’t diminish market value. 

 

I think Kittle at this point is worth about 15 million aav easily. If he has another good season and is healthy he should command closer to 20 than 15 ( I would say 18). There aren’t many TE’s that can anchor a passing attack as a number one option and block at an elite level on the market. Hooper got 10+ million and he isn’t a very good blocker and is far from a TE able to anchor a passing attack. 

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Kelce blocks as well as any tight end in football and was putting up numbers before Mahomes was even drafted and before Tyreek Hill became a factor.

Of course he was.  He had Alex Smith, Andy reid and zero WRs to take targets away from him.  
 

kittle has the most receiving yards ever for a TE after 3 years.  He had Mullens and beathard throwing him the ball 2 years ago. Hoyer, beathard and jiimmy g(for 5 games) 3 years ago. 

 

he blocks as well as any TE not named Kittle.  
 

agree to disagree. I’ll take Kittle every day of the week

[Billl]

On 6/1/2020 at 7:08 AM, Teddy KGB said:

Give me Kittle > Kelce all day everyday.   

Hope those days aren’t during the playoffs.  
Kelce: 19 catches, 207 yards, 4 TDs, and 9.4 yards per target 

Kittle:  8 catches, 71 yards, 0 TDs, 5.5 yards per target

[billsfan89]

23 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Kelce blocks as well as any tight end in football and was putting up numbers before Mahomes was even drafted and before Tyreek Hill became a factor.

 

I think a big piece missing in this conversation is that there hasn't been a big TE to hit the market in many years. Gronk got a massive 6 year contract extension in 2012 season and was never at a point to get a second contract of significant length. Jimmy Graham signed his big deal back in 2014.  Travis Kelce signed a 5 year extension after the 2015 season when he had logged back to back 800 yard seasons, Zach Ertz signed a similar contract in January 2016 when his career high in yards was 800. Both have blossomed into elite TE’s. 

 

There just hasn’t been an elite TE to hit the market in a long time. Hooper and Henry are good top 10 TE’s but not special dynamic players at the position and they still got over 10 million. I think Kittle if he can cement his status with one more very good season resets a very warped market. If a Jimmy Graham or Gronk or Kelce type TE hit the market in the past 2-3 seasons we would be easily talking Kittle having to go above a 14-15 million dollar top contract instead of 10 million. 

8 minutes ago, Billl said:

Hope those days aren’t during the playoffs.  
Kelce: 19 catches, 207 yards, 4 TDs, and 9.4 yards per target 

Kittle:  8 catches, 71 yards, 0 TDs, 5.5 yards per target

 

The Niners threw the ball 19 times in the divisional round and 8 times in the NFC title game. I think that might have deflated Kittle's stats although in the SB when the Niners threw 31 times he only had 4 receptions for 36 yards. Both guys are elite TE's. One being underpaid doesn't deflate the others value nor would one being a smidge better.

Edited June 2, 2020 by billsfan89

[Virgil]

I never saw this as an 8 page thread.  It’s amazing what no live sports can do 

[Mr. WEO]

14 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

In 2019 Kittle broke 1000 yards on an offense that was nursing leads late and running heavy (and Jimmy G is not an elite QB at this point.) If he has another similar season in 2020 he will along with his elite blocking skills and versatility to line up in the backfield or anywhere on the field have established 3 seasons worth of elite TE play before hitting the market at age 27. I could easily see another team ponying up around 18 million aav to get an elite dynamic piece that is rare. 

 

I would disagree that Samuel and their receivers are going to take away targets in any significant manner. Sanders is no longer there and while they did draft a WR in round 1 I think it will take at least a year or two for Alyuk to take away significant targets. I also think that if anything having Samuel and other better receiving options will only help Kittle pop bigger numbers as the attention is less on him. 

 

Travis Kelce signed his contract that pays him about 9-10 million a season before the 2016 season. When he signed that deal he was coming off of back to back 800+ yard seasons with 5 TD’s in each season. Even before Mahomes in 2018 he had out performed that deal and if he hit the open market today would see a greater than 50% raise from his current salary. Ask yourself this question if 2 years ago Kelce hit the open market what would he have commanded? I would say at least 15 million. Kelce’s deal being deflated doesn’t diminish market value. 

 

I think Kittle at this point is worth about 15 million aav easily. If he has another good season and is healthy he should command closer to 20 than 15 ( I would say 18). There aren’t many TE’s that can anchor a passing attack as a number one option and block at an elite level on the market. Hooper got 10+ million and he isn’t a very good blocker and is far from a TE able to anchor a passing attack. 

 

Why would it take a year or two for the rookie WR to take away targets?  Samuel did it this past season no problem. 

 

What does Kittle do when he lines up in the backfield?

 

In 2016, Kelce signed for under 10M a year--that's less than what NO payed Graham.  Yet 2 years later he would have gotten 15M?  Did Graham get Larry Fitzgerald money after 3 years that were arguably at least as good as Kittle's?  no.  Show me any player in NFL history who "hit the open market" and got a 50% bump over the position max contract.

 

 

 

 

 

9 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Of course he was.  He had Alex Smith, Andy reid and zero WRs to take targets away from him.  
 

kittle has the most receiving yards ever for a TE after 3 years.  He had Mullens and beathard throwing him the ball 2 years ago. Hoyer, beathard and jiimmy g(for 5 games) 3 years ago. 

 

he blocks as well as any TE not named Kittle.  
 

agree to disagree. I’ll take Kittle every day of the week

 

Not  by much---Gronk and Graham were pretty close---and both had many more TDs than Kittle (not event close).  Kittle isn't a scorer.  Even in the Red Zone, Kendrick Bourne was their most effective receiving weapon.

 

If he's on the market net year, would the Bills pay 15-18 million for him?  If Kittle was also a significant Red Zone threat, I would say he might be worth 13-14M, which is a massive increase over the tag for TE.

 

[NewEra]

Just now, Mr. WEO said:

 

Why would it take a year or two for the rookie WR to take away targets?  Samuel did it this past season no problem. 

 

What does Kittle do when he lines up in the backfield?

 

In 2016, Kelce signed for under 10M a year--that's less than what NO payed Graham.  Yet 2 years later he would have gotten 15M?  Did Graham get Larry Fitzgerald money after 3 years that were arguably at least as good as Kittle's?  no.  Show me any player in NFL history who "hit the open market" and got a 50% bump over the position max contract.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not  by much---Gronk and Graham were pretty close---and both had many more TDs than Kittle (not event close).  Kittle isn't a scorer.  Even in the Red Zone, Kendrick Bourne was their most effective receiving weapon.

 

If he's on the market net year, would the Bills pay 15-18 million for him?  If Kittle was also a significant Red Zone threat, I would say he might be worth 13-14M, which is a massive increase over the tag for TE.

 

Not by much......LOL.  
 

your motto:  can’t stop, won’t stop.

 

he HAS more yards than ANY TE in history after his first 3 years.....

 

not by much. You’re such a troll

[Mr. WEO]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Not by much......LOL.  
 

your motto:  can’t stop, won’t stop.

 

he HAS more yards than ANY TE in history after his first 3 years.....

 

not by much. You’re such a troll

 

So what?  Teams don't consider only that when valuing a player ("but is he the best in history for receiving yards for TEs after their first 3 years???  Yes?   Well then, how much should we write the check for?")---I mean, you're joking right?   It's not a point worth making for the actual difference.  

 

Kittle:  2945 yards, 12 TDs

 

Gronk:  2663 yards, 38 TDs

 

Graham: 2648 yards, 25 TDs (for good measure, he had 1215 yards/16 TDs the next year---and STILL didn't get paid like a top WR)

 

Mike Evans, an actual WR, is the ONLY WR one IN history to HAVE 1000 yards in the first 5 years of his career......and HE didn't get 18 million in his recent contract extension.