inthebuff Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 Vic Tafur from The Athletic (pay site) writes: The top six Arizona Cardinals — under 7.5, -110 Everyone is betting on the Cardinals after they traded for top-five receiver DeAndre Hopkins. But their schedule is tough (four of the first six on the road) and I still don’t know how Kyler Murray won rookie of the year last season. He was decent, but a three-game jump from last year’s five wins seems unrealistic for him and a pretty boring defense. Indianapolis Colts — under 8.5, +180 Philip Rivers is often lumped in with the great quarterbacks who switched teams late in their careers. But 18 QBs have either won an MVP or started a Super Bowl since Rivers became a starter in 2006, and he is not one of them. He has really fallen off, and I don’t know if a great offensive line fixes a statue who throws the ball up for grabs. Plus, for all the love that the national media showers on general manager Chris Ballard, the Colts have won 21 games in his three seasons. Cleveland Browns — over 8.5, -120 As much as I wrote about how the Browns were going to underachieve last season, I feel just as strongly the other way now. Cleveland added right tackle Jack Conklin in free agency and drafted left tackle Jedrick Wills, so the offensive line is much better, and new tight end Austin Hooper bolsters a dynamic offense with Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb and Odell Beckham Jr. Kevin Stefanski may be new, but he’s a huge upgrade over fired coach Freddy Kitchens. Baltimore Ravens — over 11.5, -110 The Ravens not only got to keep both their coordinators — amazing how no team waited to raid the Ravens’ or Chiefs’ staffs — but improved their roster on offense and defense. They straight out stole Calais Campbell from the Jaguars, trading a fifth-round pick for the three-time All-Pro defensive tackle. And there is no reason to think that Lamar Jackson takes a step back either. All the Zoom meetings in the world won’t help teams adjust to him. Green Bay Packers — over 9, -105 Everyone is counting Aaron Rodgers and the Packers out this year. While I do think they were pretty lucky last season AND that Rodgers will only be in Green Bay another year or two, a four-game drop seems way too steep. Running back AJ Dillon was a sneaky good pick in the second round, as he will come in for Aaron Jones late in games and run tired defenses over as the Packers pound the ball. Miami Dolphins — under 6, +110 Miami had a magical five-win season last year, when everybody thought they were tanking. Congrats to them. But they are likely going to redshirt their first-round pick this season, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, and are clearly the worst team talent-wise in their division. Opponents may actually pay attention to the scouting reports of the Dolphins this season. The other 26 ... (I snipped all but these two) Buffalo Bills — over 8.5, -165 Stefon Diggs is going to have a big year, and the young Bills defense still doesn’t get talked about enough. Friendly schedule too. This would have been a favorite play, but laying 165 to win 100 is not how we roll. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — over 8.5, -300 There is absolutely no value here, as everybody thinks Brady is going to bounce back with laid-back Bruce Arians after being freed from the apparent shackles that Belichick had on him. The defense is very good and the receivers are elite, so I will begrudgingly get in line with the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 I am with him on the Colts, Browns, Ravens, Bills and Buccs. I am against him on Green Bay and Arizona and I have Miami a push at about 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 (edited) This feels fair. I HATE over 8.5 at -165. I would rather move the number to 9 or even 9.5 and take my chances if I’m betting the Bills. The Colts at +180 though feels like good value at under 8.5. I think that they win 9+ games but they could easily win 7 or 8. I disagree on Arizona. I’m betting them over. Over for the Browns too. Edited May 19, 2020 by Kirby Jackson 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: This feels fair. I HATE over 8.5 at -165. I would rather move the number to 9 or even 9.5 and take my chances if I’m betting the Bills. The Colts at +180 though feels like good value at under 8.5. I think that they win 9+ games but they could easily win 7 or 8. I disagree on Arizona. I’m betting them over. Over for the Browns too. I think the Colts are the best under bet in the NFL. I think Rivers is done. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 Over. 10 at least. Buffalo Bills — over 8.5, -165 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 (edited) Betting any money on the Ravens winning 12 games is foolish, I think. Quote And there is no reason to think that Lamar Jackson takes a step back either. Someone didn't watch the playoffs... also, losing a Hall of Fame guard? Edited May 19, 2020 by whatdrought 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: I think the Colts are the best under bet in the NFL. I think Rivers is done. I had it last year (although I sweated it out). If you are giving me +180 on under 8.5 I’m giving you my money to hold for a few months :). That’s great value. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capco Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 For someone who doesn't bet, what does the second number mean? The one with the + or - sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Capco said: For someone who doesn't bet, what does the second number mean? The one with the + or - sign. - means you have to bet that amount to win $100. + means the opposite, you have to bet $100 to win that amount. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capco Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 1 minute ago, HappyDays said: - means you have to bet that amount to win $100. + means the opposite, you have to bet $100 to win that amount. Thanks bud! Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 14 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: Over for the Browns too. Light those bills on fire, instead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billl Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 16 minutes ago, whatdrought said: Betting any money on the Ravens winning 12 games is foolish, I think. Someone didn't watch the playoffs... also, losing a Hall of Fame guard? Jackson was amazing in the first three quarters of the playoffs. His receivers played the worst game I’ve ever seen, or they’d have blown the doors off the Titans. It wasn’t until the fourth quarter when Jackson had to play hero ball that he looked bad. The Ravens are legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 (edited) 35 minutes ago, inthebuff said: . The other 26 ... (I snipped all but these two) Buffalo Bills — over 8.5, -165 Stefon Diggs is going to have a big year, and the young Bills defense still doesn’t get talked about enough. Friendly schedule too. This would have been a favorite play, but laying 165 to win 100 is not how we roll. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — over 8.5, -300 There is absolutely no value here, as everybody thinks Brady is going to bounce back with laid-back Bruce Arians after being freed from the apparent shackles that Belichick had on him. The defense is very good and the receivers are elite, so I will begrudgingly get in line with the public. I didn’t think the schedule with all those west coast games was all that friendly. Maybe that’s just me....... but I still take the over there. (It’s always hard to tell before a season starts, though.) . Edited May 19, 2020 by Augie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said: Light those bills on fire, instead. I like them to win 9 games this year. They loaded up on the OL and got rid of Freddie Kitchens. He was Rich Kotite bad. In addition, they get the NFC East and the AFC South. The Browns are a good bet this year to go over. They went from overrated to underrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: I like them to win 9 games this year. They loaded up on the OL and got rid of Freddie Kitchens. He was Rich Kotite bad. In addition, they get the NFC East and the AFC South. The Browns are a good bet this year to go over. They went from overrated to underrated. I'll believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said: I'll believe it when I see it. They’ll win 3 games in the division (at minimum), 5 games vs. the NFC East and AFC South (minimum), and sweep the Jets and Raiders. That’s 10. Their schedule is like ours last year. They are just going to play a lot of teams that they are better than. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: I like them to win 9 games this year. They loaded up on the OL and got rid of Freddie Kitchens. He was Rich Kotite bad. In addition, they get the NFC East and the AFC South. The Browns are a good bet this year to go over. They went from overrated to underrated. I don't see how Cleveland -120 is any better than Buffalo -165 @8.5 If anything I'd tease the Browns under and get BUF over 8.5 at something better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 18 minutes ago, Billl said: Jackson was amazing in the first three quarters of the playoffs. His receivers played the worst game I’ve ever seen, or they’d have blown the doors off the Titans. It wasn’t until the fourth quarter when Jackson had to play hero ball that he looked bad. The Ravens are legit. I really don't know what you're talking about... He struggled throughout the game and didn't look at all like an MVP. He air balled a pick on the first drive, and then wasn't able to move the offense at all.... It was one bad game, yes, but it was indicative of the larger issue in that when teams slow the run down, he can't make the throws. I'm not saying he's bad or that they will be bad, but winning 12 games in the NFL is tough tough work and there's few teams that that money is worth- especially a team who has a QB whose setup for a regression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cripple Creek Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 53 minutes ago, inthebuff said: Vic Tafur from The Athletic (pay site) writes: Not to be picky, but who's that Vic? When we see Vic around here we only think Carucci. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: I don't see how Cleveland -120 is any better than Buffalo -165 @8.5 If anything I'd tease the Browns under and get BUF over 8.5 at something better I’d rather move the Bills to 9 and get that same -120 or better. I just don’t like betting anything beyond about -135. It just isn’t great value. By the same token I’ll be in on a coin flip situation if it hits +125. Anything less than that and I’ll sit it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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