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Josh's passing stats for 2019 aren't as bad as many people think.


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For those interested I found the link on Pro Football Reference where you can easily search individual player stats for deep or short passes or all kinds of things.

 

John Brown Deep Throw Stats

 

The link is for John Brown. But at the top of page go to the Play Index tab and then click on Game Play Finder. You can sort through virtually any player and any play scenario.

 

In the link, scroll about half way down to find the passing stats for the QBs that threw deep passes to John Brown.

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Article from Nov 2019,  there is also a reason for the deep ball misses. Besides Robert Foster being injured the first part of the 2019 season. 

 

"A year after consistently struggling to place intermediate throws, Allen has been one of the league’s most accurate passers in that area of the field. He’s completed 64.7 percent of his throws between 10 and 20 yards this season—a jump of nearly 16 percentage points from his first season. Allen’s biggest gains in 2019 have come where he faltered most as a rookie."

 

Yet for all of Allen’s strides forward this season, his efficiency on deep balls has taken a drastic step back. He enters Week 12 ranked 22nd out of 25 qualified quarterbacks with a 30.2 adjusted completion percentage on passes of 20 yards or more, and he’s routinely sailed throws well out of reach of his receivers. But Allen contends that he’s comfortable with how the process is playing out. He’s OK with his deep ball accuracy coming together last; just like his golf swing, he knows that as long as he’s hitting the ball straight, the length will eventually come. “I’m 100 percent OK with an overthrow compared to a pick under,” Allen says. “I’ll take that 100 times out of 100.”

 

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/11/21/20975461/josh-allen-buffalo-bills-quarterback-perception

 

Good article. 

 

 

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On 5/29/2020 at 11:50 AM, Alphadawg7 said:


109 QB rating on 20+ yard throws to Brown.  Now add Diggs.  
 

He’s gonna be alright.  

 

 

That's what I like, a man who can't admit he's wrong..lol

On 5/28/2020 at 6:00 PM, Bangarang said:


what’s your definition of great?

 

You tell me

On 5/28/2020 at 5:49 PM, BigBillsFan said:

 

I watched the 2nd half of the season where he only had 2 good games out of 7. That's what worries me. You might count the Broncos game, but that's it, 2 out of 7 and maybe 3 out of 7 if you think he was great during the Broncos game.

 

Okay, I can understand your concern. But he did some really good things in more than 2 of the last 7. I agree, this is an important year for him. We shall see

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15 minutes ago, Bangarang said:


You want me to tell you what your definition of great is?

Bands:

Imagine Dragons

Nickleback

Collective Soul

Creed

 

Restaurants:

Applebees

Chiles

Red Lobster

Olive Garden

 

Coaches:

Jeff Fisher

Herm Edwards

Wayne Fontes

Marvin Lewis

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4 minutes ago, Billl said:

Bands:

Imagine Dragons

Nickleback

Collective Soul

Creed

 

Restaurants:

Applebees

Chiles

Red Lobster

Olive Garden

 

Coaches:

Jeff Fisher

Herm Edwards

Wayne Fontes

Marvin Lewis

The complimentary muffins at Red Lobster definitely deserve to make that list—not sure what alchemy was used to come up with that recipe, but yessir. :thumbsup:

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1 minute ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

The complimentary muffins at Red Lobster definitely deserve to make that list—not sure what alchemy was used to come up with that recipe, but yessir. :thumbsup:

How dare you call cheese biscuits muffins?  Consider yourself canceled .

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8 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

So now’s not the best time to discuss ranch with wings either? :D

I’m team ranch.

 

#sobrave #bbqsauce>buffalosauce #boneless

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On 5/14/2020 at 7:39 PM, wvbillsfan said:

Another thing on this completion percentage 

If it’s 3rd down the ball is going past the sticks and I freakin love that about Allen. 
A lot of NFL qbs take the check down and punt. One even slid on 4th and 1 or 2. 
Give me the guy that understands it’s third down or fourth down. 

 

As much as I take issue with a lot of what Allen has done so far, I agree with THIS 100%. 

It's why even though Tyrod & Allen put up virtually the same numbers (though Tyrod is more accurate & less turnovers), I'll take Allen over him even if what we saw last year was his ceiling. At least you can tell he's trying to compete & not phone it in. Nothing is worse than seeing a dump pass on 3rd & long, especially to a covered RB.

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On 6/4/2020 at 10:14 PM, first_and_ten said:

 

 

That's what I like, a man who can't admit he's wrong..lol

 

You tell me

 

Okay, I can understand your concern. But he did some really good things in more than 2 of the last 7. I agree, this is an important year for him. We shall see


Josh always does some really good things. Even when he’s having a terrible day. He has some of that special sauce in him. The issue currently is doing enough really good things week after week. 
 

That trait sort of reminds me of Favre, as well as his 4Q hot streaks at times. But Favre could take over a game, or groups of games for weeks at a time. Josh either doesn’t have that, or hasn’t found it yet. 

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2 hours ago, first_and_ten said:

 

Well, Looks like you will have to, especially since you brought it up.?


What exactly did I bring up?
 

You asked if Allen always has to be great and I wanted to know what you consider great. I was literally responding to a point you made but somehow I brought it up? 

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15 minutes ago, Mango said:


Josh always does some really good things. Even when he’s having a terrible day. He has some of that special sauce in him. The issue currently is doing enough really good things week after week. 
 

That trait sort of reminds me of Favre, as well as his 4Q hot streaks at times. But Favre could take over a game, or groups of games for weeks at a time. Josh either doesn’t have that, or hasn’t found it yet. 

 

Give him time. Let's see what he does this year. How many NFL games has he played? Mahomes  doesn't come along every day. We expect way too much too early,  IMHO

2 minutes ago, JoPoy88 said:

Stellar gaslighting

 

sorry, couldn't help myself

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13 hours ago, first_and_ten said:

 

Give him time. Let's see what he does this year. How many NFL games has he played? Mahomes  doesn't come along every day. We expect way too much too early,  IMHO

 

sorry, couldn't help myself

How many games did Wilson play? Watson? Lamar?

 

How many good active starting QB’s weren’t good by year two starting?

 

How many good QB’s drafted in the last 10 years weren’t good by year two starting?

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19 hours ago, FireChans said:

How many games did Wilson play? Watson? Lamar?

 

How many good active starting QB’s weren’t good by year two starting?

 

How many good QB’s drafted in the last 10 years weren’t good by year two starting?

 

Those are fair points as the list of players to have become good after not reaching that mark in either of their first two seasons starting is basically 0.  

 

There are a couple QB's who are more than serviceable and have inked $100 million dollar long term deals or extensions who were not good in there first two years. They would be Andy Dalton and Ryan Tannehill. Good? Not really. More like good enough. 

 

Then you have Matt Stafford. Who is sort of in the mix as well. Is he good? Or just good enough? And then there is debate as to if he was good by the end of his first two years starting or not? Hard to say. He didn't get his first meaningfull season starting till his third year. Posted a 97 QB rating. But then followed that up with a career low 79 rating in his 4th season. Next two seasons he posted 84 and 85 ratings. Despite the very luke warm start to his career he and Lions managed to sign a 3 year $53 million extension the summer of 2013 coming off of his career worst year after his 4th season. Four years later after 2 avereage and 2 above average seasons he would follow that contract up with a 5 year extension that I think at the time made him the highest paid QB.

 

I think Stafford could be an example of  a scenario we follow with Josh. Ideally he breaks out big time and we sign him to the huge 5 year contract before the end of his rookie deal. But if after 4 years say Josh has played the next two season much like his last season with ratings somewhere between 85-90  in each season I could see Josh and the Bills agreeing to a shorter 3 year deal in the $70 million dollar range. 

 

Kirk Cousins probably would have been a good example had he started more games his first three seasons. But hard to use him as a good example since he only started 9 games through his first three seasons with no season having more than 5 starts. But both Stafford and Cousins are similiar in that they did not get a lot of reps in their first two seasons and each broke out in their 3rd and 4th seasons respectively. Which is where we will see Josh over the next two seasons.

 

 

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