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Josh's passing stats for 2019 aren't as bad as many people think.


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1 hour ago, TwistofFate said:

 

I understand what you are saying, but that then begs the question....why?  Why in the world would you waste multiple years of team success, draft picks to MOVE UP for such a risky project, and put your own job in jeopardy by making such a risky selection.  All of the odds are clearly stacked against you.  You had a Mahomes and Watson sitting there in '17 yet here you were in '18.  Makes zero sense IMO.


Allen has elite tools and can be one of the leagues best QBs. Drafting QBs is a crapshoot. 

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37 minutes ago, CommonCents said:

I like Allen, have since before we drafted him. On the Mahomes scouting report it ignores Pat’s ability to change arm angles and flip the ball almost anywhere without having his feet set. That was there in college, scouts are just so set on their expectations of mechanics and how it is supposed to look that they sometimes miss the obvious.

 

FWIW, before the draft some of us had a similar discussion on Allen’s tape. He showed the ability to make anticipatory throws without having his base set. 

 

Allen’s going to be good, probably not a Mahomes but the doubters will soon be put to bed. 

If over the course of their careers Mohommes ends up being the superior QB I am fine with it......good for him.   All I care about is we get a franchise QB out of Josh Allen......because the team around Josh will be very good (including a defense)

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56 minutes ago, Billl said:

Pat Mahomes is the one who threw 41 TDs and 10 INTs and 5052 yards his junior/final season.  Allen is the one who threw 16 TDs and 6 INTs with 1812 yards his junior/final season.

 

If you take Pat’s three most prolific games his final season (Arizona State, Oklahoma, and Baylor) he threw for 1860 yards, 16 TDs, and 3 INTs.


College stats are all well and great but players aren’t scouted off of stats. It’s all about ability and how they project in the NFL. 

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2 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

 

I understand what you are saying, but that then begs the question....why?  Why in the world would you waste multiple years of team success, draft picks to MOVE UP for such a risky project, and put your own job in jeopardy by making such a risky selection.  All of the odds are clearly stacked against you.  You had a Mahomes and Watson sitting there in '17 yet here you were in '18.  Makes zero sense IMO.

You’d have to ask Beane and co. for specifics, but I imagine part of it is that they understand the difference between being a quarterback and being a passer. The latter may be improved upon and we’ve seen that, if only incrementally so far. The former is something you either have or you don’t and Allen has shown he possesses those innate qualities.

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57 minutes ago, Bangarang said:


College stats are all well and great but players aren’t scouted off of stats. It’s all about ability and how they project in the NFL. 

 

Come on, lets be serious here.  Stats matter and go a pretty long way in assessing your capability.  Fromm fell to us in the 5th.  If his stats last year mirrored his previous two years at Georgia, he goes day one.  His fall off in stats is what made scouts begin to question his ability.

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Stop making excuses for him. He had the lowest completion percentage of ALL QB's with more than 100 attempts and there wouldn't have been so many drops if he had better accuracy. Josh Allen leads the league in number of apologists. I've never seen any player whose fans simply dismiss his shortcomings without any objective consideration. He's not even an average QB. Maybe some day he will be, but not yet. Not by a long shot.

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2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Again, his college coach was Carson Wentz’s. How many coaches have produced two top 10 picks qbs in history, much less than 5 years apart?

And that’s some of us aren’t as sold on Allen.  It’s the nfl and it’s never been easier to play qb.  We are trying to make a guy be better in the nfl than he was at Wyoming.  It’s insanely risky and it’s not like we have brilliant offensive minds coaching him here.

Let’s not act like Craig Bohl is some QB producing machine or the his schools are QB factories. And again, Wentz’s relative experience exceeded that of Allen’s. 

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5 minutes ago, K-9 said:

You’d have to ask Beane and co. for specifics, but I imagine part of it is that they understand the difference between being a quarterback and being a passer. The latter may be improved upon and we’ve seen that, if only incrementally so far. The former is something you either have or you don’t and Allen has shown he possesses those innate qualities.

 

Brandon Beane shares story on how Josh Allen sold him

 

“When you’re scouting him, you’re definitely trying to watch, ‘Alright who was he going against? What corners? What receivers does he have?'” Beane said of scouting Allen’s physical traits, adding compliments on his arm strength, athletic ability and size.

 

“The next part was getting to know him,” Beane said. “We went to Laramie… we tested him again in a couple different scenarios.”

 

“You feel him in the room, when we went to Laramie, we brought our owners with us. Just to see how he is with owners, how is he around us, and I was amazed at how comfortable he was in his skin. You felt it. We went to a restaurant in Laramie. Josh was just super nice to the host, you can tell he’d been there before, but he’s not walking in there like, ‘Hey I’m the best thing since sliced bread.’ He’s talking to every single person from the hostess to everyone… just a genuine dude, took him to lunch after the workout the next day, it was the same thing. And again, brought him to Buffalo.

 

“Everything about him screamed leadership. I think if you ask the guys on our team, whether they’re on the offensive side or the defensive side, I haven’t found anybody who just doesn’t love who Josh Allen is, on and off the field,” Beane said.

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2020/05/15/buffalo-bills-brandon-beane-story-josh-allen-sold-him/

 

It sounds to me they cared more about the intangibles than anything else.  Its easy to really like Josh but it takes more than that to produce as a Qb.

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7 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

 

Brandon Beane shares story on how Josh Allen sold him

 

“When you’re scouting him, you’re definitely trying to watch, ‘Alright who was he going against? What corners? What receivers does he have?'” Beane said of scouting Allen’s physical traits, adding compliments on his arm strength, athletic ability and size.

 

“The next part was getting to know him,” Beane said. “We went to Laramie… we tested him again in a couple different scenarios.”

 

“You feel him in the room, when we went to Laramie, we brought our owners with us. Just to see how he is with owners, how is he around us, and I was amazed at how comfortable he was in his skin. You felt it. We went to a restaurant in Laramie. Josh was just super nice to the host, you can tell he’d been there before, but he’s not walking in there like, ‘Hey I’m the best thing since sliced bread.’ He’s talking to every single person from the hostess to everyone… just a genuine dude, took him to lunch after the workout the next day, it was the same thing. And again, brought him to Buffalo.

 

“Everything about him screamed leadership. I think if you ask the guys on our team, whether they’re on the offensive side or the defensive side, I haven’t found anybody who just doesn’t love who Josh Allen is, on and off the field,” Beane said.

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2020/05/15/buffalo-bills-brandon-beane-story-josh-allen-sold-him/

 

It sounds to me they cared more about the intangibles than anything else.  Its easy to really like Josh but it takes more than that to produce as a Qb.

The intangibles? :lol:

 

The world is littered with rifle armed QB prospects who could make every throw but didn’t have a clue about being a QB. In speaking to GMs and scouts over the years, they list “intangibles” like intelligence more highly than accuracy. And not for nothing, Beane and Co., in their exhaustive research on Allen during the scouting process, had to know better than anyone about Allen’s atypical route to the NFL and the steady upward improvement he has shown in his command of the position. Easy to understand why they think his trajectory would keep arcing upward. 

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56 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

 

Brandon Beane shares story on how Josh Allen sold him

 

“When you’re scouting him, you’re definitely trying to watch, ‘Alright who was he going against? What corners? What receivers does he have?'” Beane said of scouting Allen’s physical traits, adding compliments on his arm strength, athletic ability and size.

 

“The next part was getting to know him,” Beane said. “We went to Laramie… we tested him again in a couple different scenarios.”

 

“You feel him in the room, when we went to Laramie, we brought our owners with us. Just to see how he is with owners, how is he around us, and I was amazed at how comfortable he was in his skin. You felt it. We went to a restaurant in Laramie. Josh was just super nice to the host, you can tell he’d been there before, but he’s not walking in there like, ‘Hey I’m the best thing since sliced bread.’ He’s talking to every single person from the hostess to everyone… just a genuine dude, took him to lunch after the workout the next day, it was the same thing. And again, brought him to Buffalo.

 

“Everything about him screamed leadership. I think if you ask the guys on our team, whether they’re on the offensive side or the defensive side, I haven’t found anybody who just doesn’t love who Josh Allen is, on and off the field,” Beane said.

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2020/05/15/buffalo-bills-brandon-beane-story-josh-allen-sold-him/

 

It sounds to me they cared more about the intangibles than anything else.  Its easy to really like Josh but it takes more than that to produce as a Qb.

 

If he can be a top 12-15 passer, I’m OK with that, because he’s a top 5 runner and leader for the position, IMO. 

 

 

.

Edited by Augie
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42 minutes ago, K-9 said:

The intangibles? :lol:

 

The world is littered with rifle armed QB prospects who could make every throw but didn’t have a clue about being a QB. In speaking to GMs and scouts over the years, they list “intangibles” like intelligence more highly than accuracy. And not for nothing, Beane and Co., in their exhaustive research on Allen during the scouting process, had to know better than anyone about Allen’s atypical route to the NFL and the steady upward improvement he has shown in his command of the position. Easy to understand why they think his trajectory would keep arcing upward. 

Yes...the intangibles.  Not sure what's so funny.

 

"Such a story shows exactly how much stock the Bills put into the intangibles. Thus far in his short career, it seems like Allen’s certainly got that part of being an NFL quarterback down."  - excerpt from the article I provided.

 

Aside from just having elite physical tools, Allen had nothing else but intangibles to go on.  His college stats are almost exactly what they are in the NFL.

 

College vs Pros (2 year averages)

 

Games played

  • 25 vs 28

Completion Percentage

  • 56.2 vs 56.3

Passing Yards

  • 2507.5 vs 2581.5

Average Yards per Attempt

  • 7.6 vs 6.2

TD's (passing)

  • 22 vs 15

Interceptions

  • 10.5 vs 10.5

His "intangibles" are things that can't be measured.  Intelligence is measured.  Accuracy is measured.  The "it factor" is the intangible.  It can't be measured.  It's something you feel, your intuition about the individual.  Beane clearly explains he was sold on Allen because of the "it" factor.

 

1:25 mark

 

 

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2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

No one cares about college stats in scouting a player for the NFL. I could find and post countless examples of this not mattering, but do you really need me to?

Evidently you don’t care about high school stats, JuCo stats, college stats, or NFL stats. If you can find one successful NFL QB with worse college stats than Allen, I’d be impressed.

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6 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Yes...the intangibles.  Not sure what's so funny.

 

"Such a story shows exactly how much stock the Bills put into the intangibles. Thus far in his short career, it seems like Allen’s certainly got that part of being an NFL quarterback down."  - excerpt from the article I provided.

 

Aside from just having elite physical tools, Allen had nothing else but intangibles to go on.  His college stats are almost exactly what they are in the NFL.

 

College vs Pros (2 year averages)

 

Games played

  • 25 vs 28

Completion Percentage

  • 56.2 vs 56.3

Passing Yards

  • 2507.5 vs 2581.5

Average Yards per Attempt

  • 7.6 vs 6.2

TD's (passing)

  • 22 vs 15

Interceptions

  • 10.5 vs 10.5

His "intangibles" are things that can't be measured.  Intelligence is measured.  Accuracy is measured.  The "it factor" is the intangible.  It can't be measured.  It's something you feel, your intuition about the individual.  Beane clearly explains he was sold on Allen because of the "it" factor.

 

So next season we should expect Allen to throw for 2,500 yards and 15 TD's. Is that your projection? I'll bet you $1000 he beats those numbers. 

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27 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

If he can be a top 12-15 passer, I’m OK with that, because he’s a top 5 runner and leader for the position, IMO. 

 

 

.

If he can linger around that upper middle of the pack Im fine with it too.

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14 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Yes...the intangibles.  Not sure what's so funny.

 

"Such a story shows exactly how much stock the Bills put into the intangibles. Thus far in his short career, it seems like Allen’s certainly got that part of being an NFL quarterback down."  - excerpt from the article I provided.

 

Aside from just having elite physical tools, Allen had nothing else but intangibles to go on.  His college stats are almost exactly what they are in the NFL.

 

College vs Pros (2 year averages)

 

Games played

  • 25 vs 28

Completion Percentage

  • 56.2 vs 56.3

Passing Yards

  • 2507.5 vs 2581.5

Average Yards per Attempt

  • 7.6 vs 6.2

TD's (passing)

  • 22 vs 15

Interceptions

  • 10.5 vs 10.5

His "intangibles" are things that can't be measured.  Intelligence is measured.  Accuracy is measured.  The "it factor" is the intangible.  It can't be measured.  It's something you feel, your intuition about the individual.  Beane clearly explains he was sold on Allen because of the "it" factor.

I laugh because as I explained in my answer “intangibles” and other non passing aspects are valued more than other attributes, Beane implies this in your posted article, and yet you ask the question why would they trade up and spend so much on a project. And then you see fit to post yet more stats to say Allen sucks. On one hand you appreciate attributes unrelated to passing the ball and on the other you seem to dismiss them as not important. 
 

As I said, there’s a difference between being a quarterback and being a passer. We will know soon enough about Josh Allen. In the meantime, while it may be amusing, it’s meaningless to project his career path based on what other QBs have done in their first two years. But his trajectory since his senior year in high school has done nothing but rise. There’s reason to believe that will continue based on his history as he acquires more experience at the position. 
 

 

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22 minutes ago, Billl said:

Evidently you don’t care about high school stats, JuCo stats, college stats, or NFL stats. If you can find one successful NFL QB with worse college stats than Allen, I’d be impressed.

I can find dozens with better college stats who never made it to the NFL, let alone became a top seven pick, let alone started 27 of their first 28 games in the NFL. All with precious little refined experience at the position to boot. 

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3 minutes ago, K-9 said:

I can find dozens with better college stats who never made it to the NFL, let alone became a top seven pick, let alone started 27 of their first 28 games in the NFL. All with precious little refined experience at the position to boot. 

 

Then you have Jeff George or Cutler, with all the passing talent in the world. I could not bear to have them as my QB. 

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Just now, Augie said:

 

Then you have Jeff George or Cutler, with all the passing talent in the world. I could not bear to have them as my QB. 

Good examples of the difference between quarterbacks and passers. 

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2 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

 

Come on, lets be serious here.  Stats matter and go a pretty long way in assessing your capability.  Fromm fell to us in the 5th.  If his stats last year mirrored his previous two years at Georgia, he goes day one.  His fall off in stats is what made scouts begin to question his ability.


Case Keenum broke NCAA passing records and still went undrafted. 
 

Fromm fell to us because he has an inferior NFL arm.
 

Ability and projectable NFL traits matter more than just blindly looking at stats.

 

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