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Josh's passing stats for 2019 aren't as bad as many people think.


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48 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Why was Josh’s deep ball better with Robert Foster, a guy who was on the fringe of the roster in 2018, was on and off the practice squad, than it was with John Brown, a guy Josh went through all of camp working on his timing with?

His deep ball actually wasn't that much better his rookie year when you look at the numbers. There are just a couple wow plays that we remember.

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1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Let me start by saying a lot of people discussing Allen's accuracy are...well for a lack of a better word...wrong.  Even in instances where their conclusion is probably say the most accurate one, the logic they used to get there is often incomplete and got the right answer really because you had a 50% chance to do so given there are only 2 answers to the question at hand.

  1. First issue:  Season total stat checking.  
    1. This is a terribly flawed way to make a determination of a question such as "Is Josh Allen inaccurate or accurate".  Stat sheets lack context, and worse yet, everyone is obsessed with YEAR END TOTALS versus tracking progression, identifying outlier games that heavily skew end results not properly reflecting the week to week performance of said player, especially when in relation to a young player.  
  2. Second issue:  Failure to factor in all the variables that impact an individual's numbers/performance.  
    1. QB is the most complicated position in all of team sports, and the individual success can be impacted in any given game or moment by a number of mitigating factors.  Fans have an utter obsession of putting all the blame or praise on a QB in every single moment without taking into context of what was really happening.  

So lets address this question:  Is Josh Allen inaccurate to the point its a problem?  The answer is likely NO based on his first 2 seasons.  But with any young player, no definitive answer can be concluded today as he is still developing and that could go either direction.  But its clear as day, he is trending in the right direction and that Josh was pretty accurate last year despite the naysayers and the year end comp %.  

 

Like all developing players he has things to work on, but he clearly demonstrated last season that his accuracy concerns really shouldn't be there and that he has what it takes to be a 64% or better QB in the NFL.  The stat sheet shows under 60%, but thats an incomplete and lazy analysis of what REALLY happened.  

 

Lets look at the mitigating factors that lead to a more accurate assessment.

  1. Start with the obvious and most glaring area of improvement Josh needed to focus on:  The Deep Ball.  Without question, this was a struggle, especially the first half of the year...but WHY is the better question.
    1. Starts the season with two WR's he had no experience with and timing takes time to develop, not to mention 9 new players on the offense overall.  That was Brown and Cole, and Cole isnt a deep ball WR.  Opposite these two guys were utter scrubs who lacked any real deep ball skills or threat.  
    2. Josh started the season trying too hard to get the ball downfield, like to that scrub Zay who often made poor efforts on balls as well, and the combo of this resulted in too many turnovers the first 4 weeks of the season.  
    3. NE Game - Can not over state this enough, this game changed Josh both for the good and a little bit for the worse (but minor and he eventually readjusted).  This is the game that even he says was the turning point.  After this game, Josh would only have 3 turnovers over the rest of the season.  He got smarter with the ball, and stopped making as many risky throws.  
      1. However...the negative, was that he also too worried of the INT and was trying to put the ball too far out in front where only his guy could get it way too often.  And this led to a lot of bad over throws downfield and further hindered his deep ball.  But once, the season wore on down the stretch and he started connecting on some, you could see the confidence come back and he was improving on the deep ball and hit some amazing throws.  
    4. BOTTOM LINE:  Josh's deep ball down the stretch of the season was significantly more successful than the first 2/3's of the season.  This was due to better personnel on the field, more timing with the newer additions, and more confidence in putting the ball in the right spot.  Had Josh been that way the whole season, he easily would have been over the 60% completion on just this alone.  Now add in elite WR Diggs who is also an elite deep threat, and its VERY EASY to be optimistic that he will again continue to improve in this area.
  2. Bills led the NFL in dropped passes.  Nothing to say here other than duh, this clearly impacted his comp % and had we been average or above average instead of the worst, he would also have been above 60%.  And with a much improved arsenal of weapons for Josh in year 3, I think its a good bet we wont be anywhere near the bottom of the league in dropped passes this year.
  3. Touched a bit on this in point one above (sub point 3), but the first 4 weeks and especially the NE game changed Josh's approach to in game decisions.
    1. After the NE game, it forced Josh to be more careful, and this resulted in a lot more throw aways which of course impacts his comp %.  Instead of letting his competitive drive push him into more risky or low % opportunities that could lead to turnovers, Josh was smart and threw the ball away more.  But, with Josh expected improvement and development with reading the D faster and also having better weapons who can get open quicker, this should result in less throw aways.
  4. Josh was 4th in the NFL in downfield throws, meaning he takes more lower % shots than almost all other QB's.  And more importantly, we did not have a great personnel group to help Josh have more success in this area.  
    1. Personally, I love this about Josh.  I would take a 62% passer who pushes the ball down field constantly over a 71% passer who is a game manager and check down artist every single time.  
    2. We did not have the right group of guys around a QB like Josh the last 2 years.  We had some pieces, both veterans like Brown and a raw rookie like Knox, but ultimately, our group was not ideal for Josh's game as a full unit.  Seeing Cole running 25 yard routes makes me cringe every time, thats not his sweet spot.  Or watching him throw a 20 yard out to Roberts, McKenzie or worse Zay made me cringe as well.  But now, Knox should be better (too many dropsies as a rookie) and the WR group on paper looks to be one of the better units in the league for someone like Josh.  
  5. Last, but not least, and probably most importantly:  IMPROVEMENT.  Josh made significant strides at every stop of his career and in short bursts.  
    1. Coming into the NFL, he never had top coaching or a talented roster around him.  In HS, he was a multi-sport athlete and didn't take football as a serious as it became for him.  Then he was at a JUCO and a weak school like Wyoming where he lacked real talent and high level coaching to harness all those gifts he has.  But once he stepped off the field for Wyoming for the last time and started working with Palmer, he made huge leaps leading up to the draft and rocked the combine too.  As a rookie, he was raw, and split reps in a 3 way QB battle yet preventing him from getting better prepared to start early.  Then he got put in halfway through the first game.  After getting hurt and sitting 4 weeks, he comes back looking like a completely different player and really showing great improvement. 
    2. Year 2 he comes in and makes substantial improvement in just about every area of his game from one season to the next...DESPITE the fact he had NINE new starters around him on offense, his weapons group to throw too was mediocre overall at best and had turnover throughout the season at WR where only McKenzie was a guy he had any prior experience with after Zay was traded (Foster didnt sniff the field much). 
    3. Has a terrible game week 4 and too many turnovers over those 4 weeks just to turn around and go for 21 TDs and just 3 turnovers from weeks 5-17, second in scoring ONLY to Lamar.  

Add all this up, and IF just ONE of those factors last year were different, he was already a 60% passer.  This kid is an f-ing gamer, is highly coachable, and is constantly improving.  Now Beane has also been constantly improving the roster around him and has fully set this kid up to start really taking the next steps.  

 

So, for me...sorry, if you think this kid is inaccurate, then based on the evidence you are more than likely wrong.  I fully acknowledge that is an opinion (as it will be for everyone until we see what he does on the field this year)...but that opinion is rooted hard in the facts laid out in front of us all to see BEYOND an uninformative and nearly meaningless year end stat sheet number of 58% completions.  

 

I will bet anyone here (and I pay my bets) he will easily eclipse 60% this year without question.  The evidence is OVER WHELMING that he will be in that fabled 60%.  He has too big of an arm and will take to many deep shots to ever lead the league in comp %, but who cares...he will be a nightmare to defend.  

WTF?!?!?!? ??????

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44 minutes ago, BillsFanThru-N-Thru said:

One other thing that I haven't seen taken into account is the Oline play and the protection he gets.  If he's throwing it away to avoid a sack, or even rushing a throw because of pressure that shows up on his stats and not the Olines.  In his first year the Oline was absolutely horrid which is why he either rushed his throws or took off running.  Last year was vastly better then his first year but not without problems

I think this is true, but it's also true he held the ball too long quite a bit. He needs to improve reading the field like any young qb. I'm confident he'll get there.

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1 hour ago, TwistofFate said:

Easiest bet ill ever win.  Ill call you on that right now. 

 

Allen has never eclipsed 60% in his entire career when attempting more than 20 passes.   That includes college. 

 

You can write a book why everyone else is wrong, but you are completely off base for two simple reasons. 

 

1. He's never done it

 

2.  Every meaningful advanced metric says the likelihood he does do it is slim to none. 

 

The amout of deep throws he attempts is irrelevant.   The mean % of every deep throw made over the last decade is 30%.  Allens % is abysmal. 

 

 

 

Can you elaborate on point 2? What PREDICTIVE metrics are you referring to?

 

What is the difference between 59% and 60%? Why is that extra 1.2% such an important milestone? Would Allen's season last year have been different if he reached that arbitrary number? We're talking about 5 more completed passes over the whole year to get him to 60%. What's so magical about that number?

 

Personally I think the 60% minimum standard is based on nothing. Like you said, getting to 60% would only rank him around 30th. The average is 64%.

 

Does high completion percentage make you an elite QB? Is Derek Carr elite? Kirk Cousins? Ryan Tannehill? The true elites are scattered all around the rankings, with Mahomes at 10th, Jackson at 15th, Rodgers at 19th, Tom Brady at 29th (although he isn't elite anymore). I think the obsession with completion percentage is a little strange. TD's, yards, and INT's are far more important. 3rd down and red zone efficiency are more important too, as well as 4th quarter play.

 

Don't get me wrong, Allen does need to improve, and completion percentage is part of that, but there are so much more important parts of his game that people should be focusing on.

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I’m trying hard to not get into these Allen threads so much.  I really do like his attitude and a lot of his physical skills.  But I guess what bothers me:

 

1 - I think the excuse making for him just drives me crazy.  Some of you act like nothing is ever his fault.  Then it becomes a debate about the word accuracy.  I would say that a guy who have been Never completed 60% (which is the definition of average now) on any level is probably not the most accurate qb.  

 

if any other qb had Allen’s resume, we would all clearly thing he is the weak link to the team.  
 

2 - Allen is the only young qb that will improve.  Jackson, Darnold, etc Clearly regress.  But there are serious double standards in how fans here evaluate Jackson in comparison to Allen.  I understand we are Bills fans but it would be nice to be consistent in your opinions.

 

3 - Allen is in a great situation that a lot of qbs would thrive in.  Especially with the defense we have.  Allen has to led the offense to 20 points/ game to win the majority of games.  That’s a very low benchmark and most starting level nfl qbs should be able to do that.  With our defense, you shouldn’t need “game winning” drives against Duck or a benched Mariota.  With better offense play, those games could have been over before the 4th quarter.  
 

great thing is hopefully all the excuses are done.  Excellent defense, top receiving core, solid o line.  With a non garbage schedule and teams that actually have good QBs, we will know if Allen is the real deal one way or another.  But no matter how twist things, that kinda of qb is not good franchise qb play.  Hopefully, he continues to progress.  This team has SB caliber talent and if you’re being honest, qb (and backup) is at the top of the list for biggest weakness right now. 

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27 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I’m trying hard to not get into these Allen threads so much.  I really do like his attitude and a lot of his physical skills.  But I guess what bothers me:

 

1 - I think the excuse making for him just drives me crazy.  Some of you act like nothing is ever his fault.  Then it becomes a debate about the word accuracy.  I would say that a guy who have been Never completed 60% (which is the definition of average now) on any level is probably not the most accurate qb.  

 

if any other qb had Allen’s resume, we would all clearly thing he is the weak link to the team.  
 

2 - Allen is the only young qb that will improve.  Jackson, Darnold, etc Clearly regress.  But there are serious double standards in how fans here evaluate Jackson in comparison to Allen.  I understand we are Bills fans but it would be nice to be consistent in your opinions.

 

3 - Allen is in a great situation that a lot of qbs would thrive in.  Especially with the defense we have.  Allen has to led the offense to 20 points/ game to win the majority of games.  That’s a very low benchmark and most starting level nfl qbs should be able to do that.  With our defense, you shouldn’t need “game winning” drives against Duck or a benched Mariota.  With better offense play, those games could have been over before the 4th quarter.  
 

great thing is hopefully all the excuses are done.  Excellent defense, top receiving core, solid o line.  With a non garbage schedule and teams that actually have good QBs, we will know if Allen is the real deal one way or another.  But no matter how twist things, that kinda of qb is not good franchise qb play.  Hopefully, he continues to progress.  This team has SB caliber talent and if you’re being honest, qb (and backup) is at the top of the list for biggest weakness right now. 

Nice of you to stay away, but then again, here you are.

 

1 -- Whenever there is a debate, excuses are reasons and reasons are excuses depending on which side you happen to favor. There are very few if any Allen optimists who do not recognize he needs to grow and improve, so if you're implying otherwise, I don't see it.

 

2 -- No one says Allen is the only young qb that can improve. The focus is on Allen because he's our qb. Get over it. And the substantial argument about growth points to Allen's unique backstory that includes less playing time and lack of superior coaching at the collegiate level as a factor that makes it reasonable to argue that he has more room for growth.

 

3 -- Allen is now in a great situation. The first year his surrounding talent was an utter disaster. Last year, the o-line ascended to adequate, same for wr corps. I also believe Daboll's play calling was sometimes suspect. Young qb, so we often played it close to the vest, which resulted in close games when suddenly late in the fourth the playbook opens up. (To be fair to Daboll, it's also true that Allen failed to read a lot of open receivers or ignored them trying to make a bigger play.)

 

4 -- If you're being honest, Allen is a "weak link" only in the sense that it's still unknown whether he'll continue to progress or not. OTOH, he's shown enough skills and development that he is in the conversation for darkhorse MVP. That's a stretch with our schedule, but folks who think he's an incipient franchise qb are not irrational for believing they've seen enough to plausibly hope for it.

Edited by Dr. Who
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1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Why was Josh’s deep ball better with Robert Foster, a guy who was on the fringe of the roster in 2018, was on and off the practice squad, than it was with John Brown, a guy Josh went through all of camp working on his timing with?

 

Come on, was it really?  He hit a few deep shots on a couple of wide open throws to Foster sure.  But was his deep ball really better?  And it was a small sample size, and he spent a lot of time throwing to Foster in camp and preseason while running 2nd and 3rd units.  Thats a very poor counter to indicate his deep ball won't improve, especially when his deep ball started improving last year once dead weight at WR was out of the lineup and he got better timing down with the guys here.  

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1 hour ago, TwistofFate said:

Easiest bet ill ever win.  Ill call you on that right now. 

 

Allen has never eclipsed 60% in his entire career when attempting more than 20 passes.   That includes college. 

 

You can write a book why everyone else is wrong, but you are completely off base for two simple reasons. 

 

1. He's never done it

 

2.  Every meaningful advanced metric says the likelihood he does do it is slim to none. 

 

The amout of deep throws he attempts is irrelevant.   The mean % of every deep throw made over the last decade is 30%.  Allens % is abysmal. 

 

 

 

Lets make the bet.  But there needs to be consequences if you don't pay.  Ive made several bets here, and I have won them all but one...only one person paid me and I paid my only loss.  

 

Your logic above is so silly and flawed that I am not even going to address it as it was already addressed in my original post.  I love making bets with people who either don't read or are so invested in their flawed logic that they can't comprehend what they are reading.  I love your silly take of "he didnt do it in Wyoming and JUCO" where he had weaker coaching and a terrible cast around him as a raw QB.  Not to mention every meaningful metric already said he did it last year, except his weak cast DROPPED enough passes to drop him under 60%.  So you are already categorically wrong on that one fact alone as had we been in the top 10 instead of dead last in dropped passes, he would have been a 60% passer already.    

 

Over/Under is 60%...lets do $100 and if the loser doesn't pay...their account and IP gets frozen by mods for entire 2021 offseason and not reactivated until week 1 of the 2022 season.  Those are my terms.  

Edited by Alphadawg7
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6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Come on, was it really?  He hit a few deep shots on a couple of wide open throws to Foster sure.  But was his deep ball really better?  And it was a small sample size, and he spent a lot of time throwing to Foster in camp and preseason while running 2nd and 3rd units.  Thats a very poor counter to indicate his deep ball won't improve, especially when his deep ball started improving last year once dead weight at WR was out of the lineup and he got better timing down with the guys here.  

I'm sure it's been one of the main foci of Allen's off-season. Add in Diggs, improved o-line due to familiarity, Moss adding a compelling weapon to the running game, Knox in his second year, there's plenty of compelling factors to indicate continued growth and improvement in Allen's game.

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46 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I’m trying hard to not get into these Allen threads so much.  I really do like his attitude and a lot of his physical skills.  But I guess what bothers me:

 

1 - I think the excuse making for him just drives me crazy.  Some of you act like nothing is ever his fault.  Then it becomes a debate about the word accuracy.  I would say that a guy who have been Never completed 60% (which is the definition of average now) on any level is probably not the most accurate qb.  

 

if any other qb had Allen’s resume, we would all clearly thing he is the weak link to the team.  
 

2 - Allen is the only young qb that will improve.  Jackson, Darnold, etc Clearly regress.  But there are serious double standards in how fans here evaluate Jackson in comparison to Allen.  I understand we are Bills fans but it would be nice to be consistent in your opinions.

 

3 - Allen is in a great situation that a lot of qbs would thrive in.  Especially with the defense we have.  Allen has to led the offense to 20 points/ game to win the majority of games.  That’s a very low benchmark and most starting level nfl qbs should be able to do that.  With our defense, you shouldn’t need “game winning” drives against Duck or a benched Mariota.  With better offense play, those games could have been over before the 4th quarter.  
 

great thing is hopefully all the excuses are done.  Excellent defense, top receiving core, solid o line.  With a non garbage schedule and teams that actually have good QBs, we will know if Allen is the real deal one way or another.  But no matter how twist things, that kinda of qb is not good franchise qb play.  Hopefully, he continues to progress.  This team has SB caliber talent and if you’re being honest, qb (and backup) is at the top of the list for biggest weakness right now. 


No offense...But...Cant really agree with much of anything you said here, and honestly @Dr. Who already responded with a great reply, so nothing really more for me to add.

 

 

Edited by Alphadawg7
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Titans fan here,

 

Can I just say that this board is nearly a mirror image of excuse making between Allen and Mariota. I’m talking in terms of inconsistency, drops, and holding onto the ball too long. At some point they simply don’t have it (not saying this is the consensus on Allen, he’s still plenty young). I think Year 3 is the biggest indicator for knowing whether they have “it”. 

 

IMO, the single biggest factor in a quality NFL QB is the ability to process the field. If they can make all the throws that’s great, but without the ability to process the field and progress through the reads it doesn’t really matter what throws they can make. 

 

To be fair, I think Allen has a much better chance of success than Mariota did. 

 

Signed,

Butthurt Titans fan who was all-in on Pineapple Tebow his couple of years. 

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2 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Easiest bet ill ever win.  Ill call you on that right now. 

 

Allen has never eclipsed 60% in his entire career when attempting more than 20 passes.   That includes college. 

 

You can write a book why everyone else is wrong, but you are completely off base for two simple reasons. 

 

1. He's never done it

 

2.  Every meaningful advanced metric says the likelihood he does do it is slim to none. 

 

The amout of deep throws he attempts is irrelevant.   The mean % of every deep throw made over the last decade is 30%.  Allens % is abysmal. 

 

 

I'll take as much as you want straight up

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13 minutes ago, gaskill15 said:

Titans fan here,

 

Can I just say that this board is nearly a mirror image of excuse making between Allen and Mariota. I’m talking in terms of inconsistency, drops, and holding onto the ball too long. At some point they simply don’t have it (not saying this is the consensus on Allen, he’s still plenty young). I think Year 3 is the biggest indicator for knowing whether they have “it”. 

 

IMO, the single biggest factor in a quality NFL QB is the ability to process the field. If they can make all the throws that’s great, but without the ability to process the field and progress through the reads it doesn’t really matter what throws they can make. 

 

To be fair, I think Allen has a much better chance of success than Mariota did. 

 

Signed,

Butthurt Titans fan who was all-in on Pineapple Tebow his couple of years. 

I fells this way too and I’ve done it for a lot of Bills qbs before.  I think Allen is the best leader we’ve had in a long time but it always worries me he has never been a dominate player really on any level with all of his skills.

 

side question, what happened with Marcus? He made me nervous as prospect but then had a really nice 2nd year.

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5 minutes ago, gaskill15 said:

IMO, the single biggest factor in a quality NFL QB is the ability to process the field. If they can make all the throws that’s great, but without the ability to process the field and progress through the reads it doesn’t really matter what throws they can make. 

 

I know this isn't fully equatable... but I have over 70 seasons worth of game experience on Madden and much of that on its highest difficulty level.  

 

Over the past 15 years, I can say with certainty that my ability to read defenses, find open receivers, understand coverage shells, understand passing concepts, know when to throw with touch vs zip, and all other "mental" aspects of quarterbacking have improved markedly with time.  

 

Again, I know it's just a video game, but a read is a read, a progression is a progression, etc... just because I don't have the physical ability to play in the NFL doesn't mean I can't get a good grasp on the mental part of it with enough experience.  The point is, processing the field is something that can get better with time and practice if you have the underlying mental capacity for it.  

 

Eventually, if you do have that mental capacity, at some point the lightbulb will go on and things do start to slow down.  It's just like learning something new at work:  first you are a little slow because you are concentrating on every new detail, but as you become familiar with the new task you can put some of those details in the back of your head on autopilot while you use most of your focus on the critical details. 

 

I fully believe that Josh does have that ability, and with time and practice he will become better at reading defenses, finding open receivers, and throwing good passes with more consistency than we've seen.  In fact it's remarkable that he's as far along as he already is considering how little exposure to football he's had comparatively speaking.  I'd be more concerned if he had more football experience under his belt but was only as far along as he currently is.  

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3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I fells this way too and I’ve done it for a lot of Bills qbs before.  I think Allen is the best leader we’ve had in a long time but it always worries me he has never been a dominate player really on any level with all of his skills.

 

side question, what happened with Marcus? He made me nervous as prospect but then had a really nice 2nd year.


He simply didn't get any better. Actually regressed after his 2nd season. 
 

He always had ***** footwork in the pocket, but it got worse as the years went on. I always held my breath when he was in the pocket because he'd be so indecisive if his first read wasn't open. He'd either pump fake, throw a ***** pass, or take a sack. 

 

One of his biggest downfalls was not understanding what "NFL open" is. He was always afraid of making mistakes so he never really gave his receivers a chance. If the receiver didn't have 2 steps of separation he wasn't throwing that way. 

 

He's also one of the least elusive fast guys I've ever seen. His pocket awareness was awful so many times he wouldn't take that step to avoid a sack and many times would step right into the sack. 
 

Honestly I think his multiple injuries might've messed with his confidence a little. 

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17 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

The video im going to post right now gets me in trouble, but this is the truth. 

 

People who are questionable of Allen see the things you don't think exist. 

 

 

 

This video shows all the weakness of Allen that people make excuses for. 

 

Take notice to several things throughout this video. 

 

1.  Clean pockets and amount of time Allen has to pass. 

 

2.  Ball placement of each throw.   Was it optimal placement to give the receiver YAC?  How far off the mark is each throw? 

 

3.  Count how many balls counted as DROPS, that were nearly impossible catches that receivers layed out for or jumped through the air or tried to become contortionists to catch. 

 

Allen's single greatest problem is his accuracy.  Thus far in his career he is stilled plagued by his biggest knock....consistency of his throws. 

 

I'm really at a loss that people can't objectively see his major weakness.

 

Can he light it up this year?  Yes.  Did they give him the tools to succeed?   Yes.  Is his accuracy still his biggest concern???   YES

 

Will he step up this season and take this franchise by the reins?????  "?"

 

Imo, history is not on his side. 

 

Statistics does not record a drop as a drop unless its a routine catch, so number 3 is moot.

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Maybe I'm a homer.  I go to some rival boards, and they completely dismiss Allen.  They say we'll never be good while he's QB.

 

I feel like I live in a different reality.   6-1 to close out 2018, leading us to the playoffs last year. Playing his best in the primetime games (Dallas, Pitt).  He even led us to a winning FG position in that playoff game, before that phantom call on Ford.

 

Guy's a winner, period. I could care less about stats. And the latter will improve immensely with a corps of Diggs, Brown & Beasley.

 

I love, love, love that Pats fans are hyping Stidham and still think they could have the best QB in the division. I remember that kind of wishful thinking from all the way back into the Todd Collins days.  Allen is going to keep the Bills on top for a long time - the wait is over.

 

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