Graphic: QBs hurt most by drops last year

[scuba guy]

Well at least the bills are first at something

 

Que the band

Edited May 12, 2020 by scuba guy
Spelling error

[Mr. WEO]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

You calculate the difference in yards/field position/time left on clock etc between the drop and completion to get diffEP% for each play, then total for EPA

 

Sounds like an equation that has massive compounding of errors.

 

 

Allen completed 271 passes.  The offense scored 314 points for an average of 1.15 point per completion (allowing for the fact not all points are result of passing TDs).  This calculation has each dropped pass worth almost 3 times each caught pass?  

 

Those most have been very unfortunate scenarios in clear scoring situations leading to FGs instead of TDs?  Remember, only 5.6% of Allen's attempts were dropped.

 

[Stank_Nasty]

16 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Sounds like an equation that has massive compounding of errors.

 

 

Allen completed 271 passes.  The offense scored 314 points for an average of 1.15 point per completion (allowing for the fact not all points are result of passing TDs).  This calculation has each dropped pass worth almost 3 times each caught pass?  

 

Those most have been very unfortunate scenarios in clear scoring situations leading to FGs instead of TDs?  Remember, only 5.6% of Allen's attempts were dropped.

 

While it’s obviously flawed, everyone is graded with the same formula. So I would say it hold some merit. I’m not ready to argue how much. But it’s not like it’s some biased formula just for Allen. 

[Don Otreply]

Aye up,  and this is why Sean, stated at the combine that getting guys who can “CATCH” the ball is the most important factor in choosing a receiver... Brown, Beasley, and Williams had the highest catch percentage this past season, Williams was within .6 of Beasley at 63.2%. I sure hope both the new receivers bump Foster and McKenzie off the team, and they designate Roberts to KR only or deal him, he’s not much of a receiver. 

 

I was gonna say more, but I thought I would spare y’all. 

Edited May 12, 2020 by Don Otreply

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

While it’s obviously flawed, everyone is graded with the same formula. So I would say it hold some merit. I’m not ready to argue how much. But it’s not like it’s some biased formula just for Allen. 

It's not obviously flawed. EPA is a non-proprietary equation, albeit calculated slightly differently by different stat aggregators, and it's well understood and used by everyone from teams analytics depts to gamblers. What is unclear is whether it's predictive or not. But it is not obviously flawed.

 

23 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Sounds like an equation that has massive compounding of errors.

 

 

Allen completed 271 passes.  The offense scored 314 points for an average of 1.15 point per completion (allowing for the fact not all points are result of passing TDs).  This calculation has each dropped pass worth almost 3 times each caught pass?  

 

Those most have been very unfortunate scenarios in clear scoring situations leading to FGs instead of TDs?  Remember, only 5.6% of Allen's attempts were dropped.

 

It doesn't surprise me tbh. For one, the difference in EP between a drop and a completion is always going to be higher than you might expect for a team like the Bills w/fewer attempts than league average, and when you consider propensity to run in red zone vs throw, drops in areas that would allow for FGs instead of punts etc I don't see anything that doesn't jive with what I'm seeing in terms of dropped passes

[Stank_Nasty]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

It's not obviously flawed. EPA is a non-proprietary equation, albeit calculated slightly differently by different stat aggregators, and it's well understood and used by everyone from teams analytics depts to gamblers. What is unclear is whether it's predictive or not. But it is not obviously flawed.

 

Easy now man. I worded it a bit wrong. Basically what I was getting at was the fact that I think it’s a flawed way to predict things. As would be any formula compared to actual real happenings. But the fact of the matter is the formula is the same for everyone and it shows that our pass catchers were most likely responsible for a significant amount of points left on the field. what looks like more than any other team. 

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

Other than a dropped TD, how does he draw a line from a dropped pass to missed points?

 I’m wondering this too if there’s a Critics

l dropped pass that would put the team in fg range that could be another easy calculation. 

[Gugny]

Allen is still inaccurate with the deep pass.

Allen still fumbles too much.

Allen still bails the pocket and runs too much.

Most of those drops were because Allen through behind his receivers.

If Allen was black, he'd be a backup by now.

 

Did I get them all?

[JaCrispy]

1 hour ago, scuba guy said:

Well at least the bills are first at something

 

Que the band

I was wondering how you build a statue to “the dropped pass”? ?

[Mango]

21 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Easy now man. I worded it a bit wrong. Basically what I was getting at was the fact that I think it’s a flawed way to predict things. As would be any formula compared to actual real happenings. But the fact of the matter is the formula is the same for everyone and it shows that our pass catchers were most likely responsible for a significant amount of points left on the field. what looks like more than any other team. 

I think this algorithm will always “favor” QBs like the 2019 version of Allen. High drop rate and low completion percentage. A team that scores more with greater regularity in completion percentage will have less to “gain” or adjust for. 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Mango said:

I think this algorithm will always “favor” QBs like the 2019 version of Allen. High drop rate and low completion percentage. A team that scores more with greater regularity in completion percentage will have less to “gain” or adjust for. 

Yes, strangely enough there appears to be a correlation between high drop rate and low completion percentage.

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

Damn, and that's with better receivers than 2018. We really needed Diggs and I'm glad Davis and Hodgins are known for their good hands. We need it.

[Ecmic82]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

It's not obviously flawed. EPA is a non-proprietary equation, albeit calculated slightly differently by different stat aggregators, and it's well understood and used by everyone from teams analytics depts to gamblers. What is unclear is whether it's predictive or not. But it is not obviously flawed.

 

It doesn't surprise me tbh. For one, the difference in EP between a drop and a completion is always going to be higher than you might expect for a team like the Bills w/fewer attempts than league average, and when you consider propensity to run in red zone vs throw, drops in areas that would allow for FGs instead of punts etc I don't see anything that doesn't jive with what I'm seeing in terms of dropped passes

Yeah, and intuitively its easy to reason why a dropped pass has a much larger negative impact on a drive than an average completion has a positive impact.

 

The EP for completions are much more highly dependent on other variables throughout the drive, while a drop is more closely isolated to a particular set of downs, effectively slotting within a drive a "must get 10 yards on two downs" scenario. That's a pretty big negative impact.

[NoSaint]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

Other than a dropped TD, how does he draw a line from a dropped pass to missed points?

I’d imagine some of the expected point per yard gained metrics

 

imperfect but not totally unreliable 

[BillsVet]

I see a lot of Kelvin Benjamin, Invizayble Jones, Isaiah McKenzie, Robert Foster, Deonte Thompson, and a cast of several fringe NFL types in these lowlights.

 

Good to see after 2+ years prioritizing more defense, they finally figured out those receivers were not starting quality.  The 2017 and 2018 WR groups were among the worst in the NFL.  

 

The price to McD getting to build his defense first in order to steal some games by keeping them close was found on the offensive side of the ball.  The OL and WR groups especially.

 

 

 

[billsfan_34]

3 hours ago, buffalover4life said:

It still had to be even worse in 2018. This video is comical. some fantastic passes in there though

 

 

McKenzie has the best worst hands and if the air blows he falls down. Kid has speed and thats where it ends. He wont make the 53 this time around.

[Stank_Nasty]

1 hour ago, Gugny said:

Allen is still inaccurate with the deep pass.

Allen still fumbles too much.

Allen still bails the pocket and runs too much.

Most of those drops were because Allen through behind his receivers.

If Allen was black, he'd be a backup by now.

 

Did I get them all?

His adolescent “neard” he tries to grow periodically makes me wanna throat punch a baby..... but then I look at pics of him in shorts and it’s soothing. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1 hour ago, Gugny said:

Allen is still inaccurate with the deep pass.

Allen still fumbles too much.

Allen still bails the pocket and runs too much.

Most of those drops were because Allen through behind his receivers.

If Allen was black, he'd be a backup by now.

 

Did I get them all?

I don’t see anything here about Josh's  love for process or Jesus entrenching him in his role so I think you’re at @ 80% 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

3 hours ago, buffalover4life said:

It still had to be even worse in 2018. This video is comical. some fantastic passes in there though

 

 

how’d they win 6 games? Just brutal 

[JESSEFEFFER]

Josh tended to throw "past the sticks" on third down.  Drops on third down that would have been a first down would be like a mini turnover.  There will still be a punt but it has the same net effect as an int 40 yds downfield.

 

I'd suspect that Josh leads this metric based on lost possessions, first downs that would have been, and how that translates into lost points.

 

At some point during the off-season Coach McDermott mentioned needing receivers that catch the ball.  I'd bet the Bills analytics staff had some similar measurements that were in Sean"s mind when he said that.