Post Schedule Release - Win Total - Predictions

[Locomark]

Pre schedule I would have said 10-6 to 11-5 but the way it lays out I can’t see us worse than 11-5 with a true shot at 12-4. I prefer the tough games stacked at the end. 

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I went 10-6. They will be somewhere between 9-11 wins IMO. They will win the division.

I feel the same 

[Virgil]

Still missing 16-0....

 

13+ isn’t the same pessimist 

[dollars 2 donuts]

2 hours ago, RiotAct said:

NYJ - W

@Mia - W

LAR - W

@LV - W

@ Titans - L

KC - L

@NYJ - W

NE - L

Sea - W

@Arizona - W

LAC -W

@SF - L

PIT - W

@DEN -  W

@NE- L

MIA - L

 

 

Riot, I am not going to jump on you especially since my pick was 11-5, but just FYI, the Bills are 3-0 against the Pats in the last three games Brady has  been either out or didn’t play a half.  

[CorkScrewHill]

I went 10-6. If we didn't play our scrubs against the Jests we would have been 11-5 last year. The schedule is much harder, but I think we are a better team than last year as well.  10-6 seems safe and AFCE winner. Anything else is gravy.

 

ESPN predicts 12-4 for Bills

https://www.espn.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/34587/buffalo-bills-schedule-2020-young-team-will-be-tested-in-prime-time

 

Edited May 8, 2020 by CorkScrewHill

[Jim_Kelly_Holcomb]

Marcel Louis-Jacques predicts 12-4, with 6-0 in the division:

 

https://www.espn.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/34587/buffalo-bills-schedule-2020-young-team-will-be-tested-in-prime-time

 

"Bills reporter Marcel Louis-Jacques is predicting a 12-4 finish:

 

Sept. 13: vs. N.Y. Jets, Win

Sept. 20: at Miami, Win

Sept. 27: vs. LA Rams, Win

Oct. 4: at Las Vegas, Win

Oct. 11: at Tennessee, Loss

Oct. 15: vs. Kansas City, Loss

Oct. 25: at N.Y. Jets, Win

Nov. 1: vs. New England, Win

Nov. 8: vs. Seattle, Loss

Nov. 15: at Arizona, Win

Nov. 22: BYE

Nov. 29: vs. L.A. Chargers, Win

Dec. 7: at San Francisco, Loss

Dec. 13: vs. Pittsburgh, Win

Dec. 20: at Denver, Win

Dec. 28: at New England, Win

Jan. 3: vs. Miami, Win

 

Strength of schedule: T-5th, .525"

Edited May 8, 2020 by Jim_Kelly_Holcomb

[eball]

11-13 wins. It’s a good schedule and the Bills under McD just don’t have a significant “bust” factor. He will keep them “humble and hungry” and now they have a roster more talented from top to bottom than the majority of their opponents.

[Utah John]

I like the Bills hosting the Dolphins in January.  Some of those guys won't want to get off the bus.

1 hour ago, CorkScrewHill said:

I went 10-6. If we didn't play our scrubs against the Jests we would have been 11-5 last year. The schedule is much harder, but I think we are a better team than last year as well.  10-6 seems safe and AFCE winner. Anything else is gravy.

 

ESPN predicts 12-4 for Bills

https://www.espn.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/34587/buffalo-bills-schedule-2020-young-team-will-be-tested-in-prime-time

 

The schedule is harder with all the west coast trips, and at Tennessee but this time not against Mariotta.  It will be tough for any AFCE team to get a wild card slot.  The Bills need to win the division -- even if it's 9-7 I would take it -- and hope for the best in the playoffs.

[Monty98]

Sept. 13: vs. N.Y. Jets - Always a grind out game vs them, I do think we have the better roster but if that defense is up to par it's going to be close but I'll take the odds at home. W

Sept. 20: at Miami - Tua's likely first start, I'd rather start him vs us instead of New England week one. Defense is improved but not to the extreme that I think they stop us. W

Sept. 27: vs. LA Rams - Rams offense is kinda non exsistent outside of Kupp and Woods, on defense Aaron Donald can ruin anyone's game. Contain Donald and I like our odds. W

Oct. 4: at Las Vegas - Could be Carr could be Mariota. Neither QB is great but the defense in Vegas looks to be getting better and better. Toss up. W

Oct. 11: at Tennessee - Tannehill...is he Miami Tannehill or has he turned the corner? Titan's defense is good but lost some pieces. L

Oct. 15: vs. Kansas City - unlike some, I really like being home on a short week vs KC plus they play a division game before this. May be a "trap" game. W

Oct. 25: at N.Y. Jets - I think we split home and home with the Jets. Tough game with their defense regardless. L

Nov. 1: vs. New England - I like a turn around here vs the Patriots, should be a good game either way. Two top 10 defenses. W

Nov. 8: vs. Seattle - Seattle comes to town with a team that isn't what it used to be, Wagner is still there, as is Wilson, but they come cross country after playing San Fran. W

Nov. 15: at Arizona - This will be fun, fast paced high octane offense vs what should be a shutdown D. If we can keep Arizona under 21 we should win. W

Nov. 22: BYE - I LOVE THIS BYE

Nov. 29: vs. L.A. Chargers - Probably Herbert at this point, Chargers are in rebuild...but the DL there is still scary. W

Dec. 7: at San Francisco - Monday night Bills, tough game and that team is just really good. L

Dec. 13: vs. Pittsburgh - Sunday night in Buffalo, we win here and could already be looking at playoffs. W

Dec. 20: at Denver - Sets up like a trap game for us and if we get flexed I'm not excited about it. L

Dec. 28: at New England - primetime in New England...always tough to win there in prime time. L

Jan. 3: vs. Miami - Close out at home vs Miami trying to play spoiler for a potential 2 seed. W

 

11-5, I can see us 12-4 or 10-6. Although I think to win the division we need 11.

[CorkScrewHill]

3 hours ago, Virgil said:

Still missing 16-0....

 

13+ isn’t the same pessimist 

Virgil .. don't be a pessimist .. we need a 19-0 option

[stinky finger]

6 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

I’m between 10-6 and 11-5.

 

Schedules tough.... even @Raiders and @Denver are tough ones.

 

Is this your coming out? ?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

It's a hard schedule to predict. I like to predict the favorite. I think as of today there are 7-8 games we're the favorite.
 

This season is going to be a grind. Probably 12+ games decided by 1 score.

 

 

 

[GETTOTHE50]

The hardest divisional game we have is the 2nd week in Miami. It’s going to be hot as hell and the Bills have struggled there in the heat. Sweeping the patties and jets are a given. 

[Homey D. Clown]

hoping this might not end up being a let down year, but with all the prime time games and the back and forth travelling, I struggle to find 8-9 wins.  

[Buffalo Boy]

13-3

Seattle , San Fran and Arizona the only losses. All NFC, Who cares?

AFC east and AFC Conference Champs

???

[mjt328]

Before the season, I usually try to tackle the schedule from a couple different angles.

 

Based purely on last year's (2019 season) results, the Bills had a better record than 11 of their upcoming opponents (Jets and Dolphins 2x, Rams, Raiders, Titans, Cardinals, Chargers, Steelers and Broncos).  They also had a better point differential than 11 of their upcoming opponents (Jets and Dolphins 2x, Rams, Raiders, Seahawks, Cardinals, Chargers, Steelers and Broncos).

 

Of course, teams won't be exactly the same as last year.  And my "objective" non-scientific opinion is that the:

- Jets, Dolphins, Raiders, Cardinals, Steelers and Broncos have improved their rosters since the 2019 season

- Rams, Patriots and Chargers have gotten worse since the 2019 season

- Titans, Chiefs, Seahawks and 49ers are roughly the same as the 2019 season

What makes this schedule so tricky to predict, is the poor/below average franchises in 2019 were usually the ones who apparently made the biggest strides in the offseason.  Fortunately, I also believe the Bills have improved from last year's squad.

 

Since Josh Allen is generally considered our weakest link, I also wanted to do a comparison of Quarterback opponents.  

-  In my opinion, we only play two elite guys this year (Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson), who are significantly better than Allen.  Due to unknowns about his injury/age, I would consider Ben Roethlisberger an iffy addition to this category. 

-  We also play a handful of mid-level/veteran QBs who are inconsistent in performance (Jared Goff, Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill, Jimmy Garoppolo, probably one game against Ryan Fitzpatrick) and could easily be surpassed by Allen this year. 

-  The rest of the games are against Sam Darnold,  Kyler Murray, Jarrett Stidham and Drew Lock.  I suspect Tua takes over by Week 17 and it's likely that Justin Herbert will replace Tyrod Taylor before Week 12.   

If we lose to the elite guys, split against the vets and beat everyone else, that comes out to 11 wins.

 

Those factors considered, here are my predictions on :

1 - Jets (Home) - Win, 1-0

2 - Dolphins (Road) - Win, 2-0

3 - Rams (Home) - Win, 3-0

4 - Raiders (Road) - Win, 4-0

5 - Titans (Road) - Loss, 4-1

6 - Chiefs (Home) - Loss, 4-2

7 - Jets (Road) - Win, 5-2

8 - Patriots (Home) - Win, 6-2

9 - Seahawks (Home) - Loss, 6-3

10 - Cardinals (Road) - Win, 7-3

11 - Bye

12 - Chargers (Home) - Win, 8-3

13 - 49ers (Road) - Loss, 8-4

14 - Steelers - (Home) - Win, 9-4

15 - Broncos (Road) - Win, 10-4

16 - Patriots (Road) - Win, 11-4

17 - Dolphins (Home) - Win, 12-4

 

[HappyDays]

10-6, partly because we won't have anything to play for in weeks 16 and 17. Week 16 our starters will play but it will be vanilla, week 17 it will be our backups.

[The Dean]

13 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I went 10-6. They will be somewhere between 9-11 wins IMO. They will win the division.

 

My thinking exactly. 

[Mr. K]

My first thought was 11-5 but you never know what a team is going to look like week 8 week 10 at this time of year. If you base it off the QB play I like it. Mahommes, Big Ben and Russell Wilson are the 3 biggest threats this year and Big Ben could come out and be horrible. A Billsy loss is always a possibility. I dont feel that this schedule is as tough as it seems though.

 

[Mango]

16 hours ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

Chefs, 49ers, Seahawks and titans seem like the only tough teams. The rest we should beat.

 

11-5

 

I sort of agree. I would put the Titans in a toss up a lot depends on Tannehill capturing the same magic/efficiency. I also think that applies to Pitt. Bills had a good defensive game, but a not 3rd string QB and there is a chance it goes the other way. A lot depends on Big Ben. I am 65% we sweep the Jets. I have a hard time writing of a Greggo defense and we had trouble beating them week 1 last year. 

 

I am guessing the Bills are a better team, but with a harder schedule will probably match or go 9-7 compared to last year. I think the defense takes a bit of a hit. I am trying to dig it up, I posted it over the winter. I broke down our defense vs. each QBs average passer rating in the league and their performance vs us against their average QBR for the season. If I recall correctly top half QB's had better than season average days against us, bottom half had below average days against us. There may be some concern going against Wilson, Mahomes, Garapolo, Big Ben. We should be fine against Stidham, Tyrod, Fitz/Tua. I am guessing Darnold has one good day and one bad day. I would probably put him in a toss up category with Tannehill, Carr, Goff, and Murray.