Convince me that the 2020 Pats are good...

[Locomark]

8 hours ago, y2zipper said:

I think that we've already seen the high-end of what next year's Patriots could look like: the 2019 Steelers. If TL:DR, I expect the Patriots to get abysmal QB play from Hoyer and Stidham and I expect their high turnover rate on defense to regress.

 

For all the talk of the Patriots' weapons, lack thereof, etc..., the totality of their offensive production last year was average to below average. They were 15th in total yards, 21st in yards per play, and 26th in rushing yards per attempt. The only part of their offense that was above average was Tom Brady, who produced a lot of yards. (NOTE: this was mostly on volume. Brady was 4th in the league in attempts and produced a below-average passer rating) The interception rate for Brady was also very low, as always (top ten at not throwing picks). I don't particularly see Stidham or Hoyer matching Brady's production while maintaining that low of an interception rate, and the Patriots simply don't have the rushing attack to make up the deficit in production. For example, if Hoyer/Stidham have an NFL average interception rate, that's double Brady's.

 

For reference, last year's Pittsburgh team was 29th in yards per rushing attempt and only managed to beat Jameis Winston and Baker Mayfield in interception rate (3rd lowest).

 

Pittsburgh and New England managed to win by having an exceptionally high and unsustainable turnover rates. The average team got turnovers 12% of the time. Pittsburgh got 19% and New England got 17% for turnover rates, and I expect both of these teams to regress some because turnover rates always change and high turnover reliant defenses are historically not sustainable.

 

It adds up to the Patriots being a .500 team if they sustain a huge turnover rate and a 5-6 win team if they can't, unless Stidham is way better than people think.

This is right on. They are gong to be full on 2 TE power run run pass ball control offense. They will look like the Bills used to look. It’s going to be great !! The only difference is they used to know Gronk could win anywhere on the field. Those rookies aren’t Gronk.

[Punching Bag]

On 5/6/2020 at 4:10 PM, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

they will be in the superbowl against the buccaneers.

 

any questions

 

 

yea which one will you be cheering for and is this lukewarm support or will you be tattooing team and year somewhere for posterity.

[eball]

I bet the under 9 on Pats*** wins this season. No offensive weapons that scare anyone, and the defense lost significant contributors on the LB and DL corps. They have a great secondary and BB.

 

Teams will go 8 in the box against them and force Stidham/Hoyer to make plays.  Any team with an above average defense should feast. 

[Sjci62]

Bill  Bellecek(sp). He can take yousen and you can have hisen and you will lose to whichever group he coaches. Currently the Pats talent level rates a 5 maybe 6 win season. ..prend gare a toi 

[Ramza86]

They are good at beating the Bills. 

 

Last i checked Tom Brady wasnt playing defense against us.

 

A team that has a good defensive performance can win any game.

 

Which is why you dont chalk those games up as wins.

[JoeF]

belinda....

[CardinalScotts]

On 5/6/2020 at 1:58 PM, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I don't see how the Patriots trying to win by managing Stidham and leaning on defense, is stylistically a different approach than how Jauron tried to win, how Marrone tried to win, how Rex Ryan tried to win and how McDermott tried to win for 3 years here. Gailey actually threw the ball. 

 

The Bills have mostly had game managing Quarterbacks, where they leaned on defense to keep points as low as possible, shorten the game length, and try to make a living off other teams mistakes.  

 

The main difference is the Patriots have a history of good defensive play, even with rotating spare pieces in and out of the defense, and a mastermind.

 

It is interesting that Patriots passed on their opportunity to sign Dalton and Winston, have passed on Cam thus far, traded down in the Draft.

 

The Bills had an offense that scored 19 ppg in 2019, and allowed 16.2, en route to a 10-6 record. 

 

The Patriots could attempt to do the same thing, bleed clock, kick field goals, live off turnovers. They have the weakest QB room in the league, unless Stidham is good.   

 

 

 

 

based on what he did with Brissett yes

[CardinalScotts]

On 5/6/2020 at 1:09 PM, MrEpsYtown said:

I do not think they are going to miss Collins or Shelton. They really like Adam Butler on the dline. They still have Lawrence Guy, who nobody on our team could block last year, and there is a chance that a guy like Derek Rivers finally puts it together. I don't like Josh Uche as a prospect, but I think he can replace some of what Collins brought to the table. I do think that they guy they are really going to miss is Van Noy. I think he is a pretty  underrated player. However, they always get production out of linebackers off the street like Elandon Roberts, Marquis Flowers, Jonathan Casillas, Ramon Humber. So I don't worry about them there. 

 

I think they have a really good line and good running backs. Now I do not think that Stidham is going to be very good, but I think he is better than lot of people are making him out to be. He has some tools. And for a less than ideal QB to have success you need two things: a good offensive line and a strong run game. So I would not right them off completely, but I do think they are the second best team in the division behind us. 

production off the street ? flowers 2 starts, cassillas 3 starts, ramon humber played special teams 6 games without any stats of any kind...Roberts 4 sacks in 4 years .....production?

[Royale with Cheese]

Don’t tell me what to do.

[Nihilarian]

All I can add is that this HC went with a QB in 2008 that had never started a college game his entire four year career in college...

 

That Patriots team went 11-5 with Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, and LeMont Jordan at RB. Matt Cassel at QB and that years defense was only top 10. They did have Wes Welker and Randy Moss at WR though.  The Dolphins won the Division that year at 11-5 and the Jets 9-7 so the division wasn't that bad. Buffalo under Jauron 7-9.

 

This season I can see the Patriots having atop 10 defense as their first three draft choices were for defense. As for their offense the only decent receiver is Edelman and perhaps last years rookie WR steps up in N'Kael Harry?

 

Bill Belichick is the goat of NFL head coaches and I just can't see his team worse than 9-7. The man has only had one losing season since 2000, his first year as HC of the Patriots. 

Buffalo will still have their work cut out for them to beat New England, NY Jets, Miami. JMO

 

 

[Doc]

2 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

All I can add is that this HC went with a QB in 2008 that had never started a college game his entire four year career in college...

 

That Patriots team went 11-5 with Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, and LeMont Jordan at RB. Matt Cassel at QB and that years defense was only top 10. They did have Wes Welker and Randy Moss at WR though.  The Dolphins won the Division that year at 11-5 and the Jets 9-7 so the division wasn't that bad. Buffalo under Jauron 7-9.

 

This season I can see the Patriots having atop 10 defense as their first three draft choices were for defense. As for their offense the only decent receiver is Edelman and perhaps last years rookie WR steps up in N'Kael Harry?

 

Bill Belichick is the goat of NFL head coaches and I just can't see his team worse than 9-7. The man has only had one losing season since 2000, his first year as HC of the Patriots. 

Buffalo will still have their work cut out for them to beat New England, NY Jets, Miami. JMO

 

It was virtually the same team Cassel took over and again he lost 5 more games than the team did the year before with Brady.  Stidham's not taking over arguably the greatest offense in NFL history and facing an easy schedule like in 2008.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

14 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Don’t tell me what to do.

Yeah!  He's not the boss of you!  ?

[bobobonators]

I think one thing some people are overlooking is mindset and how important that is in sports. The fear is gone folks. Say what you want about Brady or BB and who was the responsible for their success, but it was a package deal playing the pats. You knew Tom Brady was there and you knew it was going go be hard as F to play the pats and beat them. For some teams - especially the Bills - we practically lost the game before we ever stepped on that field. I have no doubt players had it in the back of their mind that “here we go again, we can never beat these guys.”  Thats gone. 
 

With Tom Brady gone do you think any NFL player worth their salt is going to say “I dont know if we can beat Stidham.” And even more importantly, do you think Patriots players will have the confidence and swagger with Stidham leading them? Will they feel invincible? I doubt it.  

Im not saying the Patriots will be the Bengals. But theyre just another team now. 

 

The mystique is gone. Some of you may not believe in that stuff, but man do I think mindset is so important in sports. 

Edited May 9, 2020 by bobobonators

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

Brady took a ton of pressure off that Patriots defense. I have a feeling the Patriots now might be the worst team in the division.

[Matt_In_NH]

Their roster is not the best and they have an unknown at QB.  However, they have what most would argue is the best coach of all time and that counts for a lot.  He will churn the QB if it is not working out, trade for someone who can manage games, like Brisset or something.    Whether you agree they are good or not, don't be surprised if they are still in it when the Bills play at Foxboro week 16.

 

 

[YoloinOhio]

Their defense will be good. Not sure if the same level as last year but belichick knows what he’s doing and can usually out scheme teams. No one knows what stidham will be because he’s thrown 4 passes. They don’t have a lot of guys who scare you on offense but I think they will probably be 8-8 or 9-7.

Edited May 9, 2020 by YoloinOhio

[ColoradoBills]

2 hours ago, mattynh said:

Their roster is not the best and they have an unknown at QB.  However, they have what most would argue is the best coach of all time and that counts for a lot.  He will churn the QB if it is not working out, trade for someone who can manage games, like Brisset or something.    Whether you agree they are good or not, don't be surprised if they are still in it when the Bills play at Foxboro week 16.

 

 

 

I know a lot of people think BB will be a magician again and pull a rabbit out of his hat this year.  Everyone keeps looking at options for him.

He really doesn't have many.  First, why would an AFC team like Indy (who wants to get a Wildcard spot) want to help NE get one?

Even if they wanted to trade Brissett to NE where is BB going to come up with the money after the season starts?  His vets will cost a lot to get rid of

once the season starts.

 

He's going with Stidham and Hoyer for the season.  I don't see many NFL teams wanting to help him out of his predicament.

[Matt_In_NH]

8 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I know a lot of people think BB will be a magician again and pull a rabbit out of his hat this year.  Everyone keeps looking at options for him.

He really doesn't have many.  First, why would an AFC team like Indy (who wants to get a Wildcard spot) want to help NE get one?

Even if they wanted to trade Brissett to NE where is BB going to come up with the money after the season starts?  His vets will cost a lot to get rid of

once the season starts.

 

He's going with Stidham and Hoyer for the season.  I don't see many NFL teams wanting to help him out of his predicament.

 

Yeah I disagree, lots of teams trade with them (help them) all the time.  And 16 teams are in another conference.  I agree it may not be in Indy's best interest but anything can be had for the right price.  I dont see him pulling a rabbit out of his butt however I do see them being better than people think.

[PromoTheRobot]

Anyone watching the Bills-Pats replay from week 16 on NFLN?

[TheCockSportif]

There are two teams who I am obsessed about this year, well, outside of the Bills.

 

First is NE.  I really can't convince the OP that they will be good.  Could they be good like the 2008 squad?  Could they go 11-5 again?  Sure.  I have no idea how the QB situation will shake out, they seem to have shed talent, I have no clue about how their draft/FA will play out, and it could turn out like the 1997 Bills.  Or maybe it turns out for Belichick like the year (1993?) he benched Kozar for Testaverde.  Or maybe the 1995 squad.  You never know.

 

Second is TB.  Brady there with Gronk would seem like a no brainer, in particular when paired with a coach I really like in Arians.  Still, I don't think that either guy has the goods anymore.  Time will tell.