Convince me that the 2020 Pats are good...

[Stank_Nasty]

4 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

When Brady went down he WAS some bum who hadn't started a game since high school.  When Brady went down Cassel, who was in his 4th year in teh league, had 39 NFL career passing attempts, shattering his college record of 33 pass attempts in his illustrious USC career.  

 

After leaving New England he went on to a 26-40 career record.  He had one winning season in KC.  After 2.5 seasons as KC's starter he was benched for Brady Quinn and then released.  

 

Matt Cassel is, was, and still is a bum.  

Romeo crennel won ten games with cassel at qb.  I don’t see anyone pointing the table saying crennel was an excellent coach because he won with a crap qb. 

[msw2112]

8 hours ago, youngjebrey said:

I have said since day one that Tom Brady is a system QB and belichick is the real reason for the patriots dynasty. If stidham goes out there this season and lights it up, while Brady craps himself in Tampa with gronk, evans, and Godwin you will never hear the end of it from me calling out SysTom. 

 

Keep in mind that Brady will be 43 years old this season.  If he craps the bed at age 43, that doesn't discount what he accomplished earlier in his career.  If he craps the bed this season, all it says to me is that he hung around too long and should have retired.

[Jauronimo]

1 minute ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Romeo crennel won ten games with cassel at qb.  I don’t see anyone pointing the table saying crennel was an excellent coach because he won with a crap qb. 

Probably because Romeo Crennel wasn't even the Chiefs head coach for Matt Cassel's one good year in KC and because has a 28-55 lifetime W/L.    Other than that, great point.

 

If you think Matt Cassel was a good QB because he had one good year in KC then I don't know what to tell you.  The numbers speak volumes.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CassMa00.htm

 

 

[Augie]

It won’t be an instant collapse, but I’m hoping they never get another OL coach like Scarnecchia. Big deal, I think. 

 

I have no idea what to expect from them next year. They have Belichick the HC (good for them), and Belichick the GM (not so good for them). QB is a huge question mark, they are getting old and the cap isn’t too pretty as I recall. I think they have a lot of picks in the next draft, and I hope it’s not enough ammo to get a great QB. (See GM comment.) 

 

I just don’t think Belichick’s ego would allow a collapse right after Tommy goes to Tampa. That would be a blemish and generate all the “what did he do without Tommy?” talk.  Wouldn’t that be GLORIOUS? 

[iinii]

Why? Sounds like you are asking for regurgitated redundancies....

[Stank_Nasty]

26 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Probably because Romeo Crennel wasn't even the Chiefs head coach for Matt Cassel's one good year in KC and because has a 28-55 lifetime W/L.    Other than that, great point.

 

If you think Matt Cassel was a good QB because he had one good year in KC then I don't know what to tell you.  The numbers speak volumes.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CassMa00.htm

 

 

Todd Haley. Crennel came in a year after the one I was referencing. My bad. Haley was still a crap coach. So the point still stands. 
 

And you have totally freaking twisted my words. I don’t know how the premise is so hard to grasp. I never once said I thought cassel was a good qb. I said at that time in his career he was a solid qb(as evidenced by the fact he took another team to a 10-6 record) so bellicheck wasn’t just winning in 08 with some scrub. He had a competent qb(at that time) on top of a loaded roster. 
 

somehow you’ve twisted me saying he had a solid coupe of years into me saying I thought cassel was a good qb. WTH dude. 

Edited May 6, 2020 by Stank_Nasty

[Augie]

47 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Probably because Romeo Crennel wasn't even the Chiefs head coach for Matt Cassel's one good year in KC and because has a 28-55 lifetime W/L.    Other than that, great point.

 

If you think Matt Cassel was a good QB because he had one good year in KC then I don't know what to tell you.  The numbers speak volumes.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CassMa00.htm

 

 

 

The 11 games he won came the year after the team was LOADED and won 16. A drop of 5 games is almost 1/3, to put things in perspective. A 12 win team had a very good season. An 8 win team was pretty....meh. That tells me the QB was probably a BIG factor. 

 

 

.

Edited May 6, 2020 by Augie

[GunnerBill]

57 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

The patriots have all the makings of a team looking to draft a franchise qb in the next draft

 

I just don't think they will be bad enough to do that. I am not a big future scouter so beyond the obvious - Lawrence and Fields - I don't know a lot about the likely 2021 Quarterback class. But I can't see a team trading out of the first or second pick unless something really odd has happened. So my instinct is that the Pats will be too good to land a QB.

[Motorin']

38 minutes ago, msw2112 said:

 

Keep in mind that Brady will be 43 years old this season.  If he craps the bed at age 43, that doesn't discount what he accomplished earlier in his career.  If he craps the bed this season, all it says to me is that he hung around too long and should have retired.

True, and Stidham isn't lighting anything up this year.

[Fan in Chicago]

9 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’m hoping that this thread inspires some thoughtful conversation. I suspect that the trauma of 20 years of being the nail has people living in fear for no reason. They will hide behind “because Belichick” because that’s the ONLY thing to stand behind. I’m not sure how many games, against that schedule, a great coach is good for? I think that they win 6 because of Belichick. That’s a 4 win team otherwise IMO. I’d love to hear a real football argument those as to why they can win? 

 

If you ask about O talent, I got nothing and have to agree that they will win more games than the roster deserves due to BB. But, I wonder if one of these things is in play:

- They acquire a QB between now and TC: unlikely as they have made no attempts to get Dalton who would work fine as a bridge. Then there is a question of their cap situation which will prevent this from happening

- BB is pretty much giving up on this season and the next to load up talent and purge the cap situation for a resurgence from 2022 onwards. I essence, the Pats** may have hit the reset button by amassing draft picks and using this season as an audition to ensure continued dominance on D. Then next offseason, they get a QB and build the O

 

I understand I am not answering your question about why their roster can be considered good (I cant). But I do believe there are some tremendous egos at play here - Brady and BB with each wanting to prove they can win the big one without the other. 

Edited May 6, 2020 by Fan in Chicago

[Success]

The Pats have broken the rest of the league like a horse.  

 

Brady is gone.  The monster in the closet has moved out.  Yeah, there is still BB, but he's already outsmarting himself with over-cute drafting & putting his faith in a guy who has 4 professional passes that include a pick 6.

 

The Patriots are done.  They will finish 3rd in the AFCE, at best - possibly 4th. And it will be that way for awhile.  

 

[Nester]

Why ? 

 

No!

[Jauronimo]

35 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Todd Haley. Crennel came in a year after the one I was referencing. My bad. Haley was still a crap coach. So the point still stands. 
 

And you have totally freaking twisted my words. I don’t know how the premise is so hard to grasp. I never once said I thought cassel was a good qb. I said at that time in his career he was a solid qb(as evidenced by the fact he took another team to a 10-6 record) so bellicheck wasn’t just winning in 08 with some scrub. He had a competent qb(at that time) on top of a loaded roster. 
 

somehow you’ve twisted me saying he had a solid coupe of years into me saying I thought cassel was a good qb. WTH dude. 

You said Cassel wasn't some bum but he is.  He is a bum.  I literally saw him this pan handling for spare change.  He smelled like complete *****.  

 

TLC actually wrote that song about him.  He is the biggest scrub whoever was a bum.  Stop defending Cassel and making weird points about Todd Haley and his open marriage.  

[CardinalScotts]

4 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

Gee, how many guys get drafted who didn't make a college start?  One of those 33 college passes must have been a beauty.  I wonder which one scouts liked the most?

your point was how did they find him......well at USC not at North Idaho State

[section122]

3 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

At WR - Full offseasons for Harry and Sanu - as well as a small addition of Lee at WR.  Last season they had Gordon and Brown be disasters and get suspended.  They still have Edelman.

 

At TE - Gronk retired in 2019, that sucked as they had nothing behind him.  Now they have 2 players they drafted this season who are likely more talented than anything they carried last year.

 

At OL - Wynn was banged up all year and they started newhouse.  David Andrews missed the entire season.  This had a huge effect on the play of their line.  

 

At RB - Still rolling with Michel and White, with Burkhead and Bolden mixed in.  2 years ago Michel avged 4.5 per carry.

 

Defensive losses were at LB - but they added Dugger (their chung big nickel type), Uche, Jennings in rounds 2 and 3, with Winovich drafted last year.  They lost Flowers the year before and actually improved on defense.  They were also a better defense than buffalo last year by a fairly considerable margin.  They took the ball away much more, and allowed fewer yards and points... first downs... 3rd downs... whatever.  

 

Kicker - they won 12 games with one of the worst kicking game in the league last year.  27/34 on FGs, and 39/45 on XPs.  

 

So yes the BIG one - they lost brady at QB.  Which will hurt their YPG and PPG values a bit i would think.  What are they looking for from Stidham?  Something like what Rudolph/Hodges were able to do with fewer turnovers? Trubiskey's numbers?  Could they win with that?  Smaller margin for error, but do-able.  And the defense will probably put them in some good situations. 

 

Also - If they put up the same points as buffalo last year (good for 23rd in the league) and yards (good for 24th), theoretically they should do similarly in standings.  

Every single one of your points is valid.  If I were a pats fan I would be using a lot of them as reasons to be optimistic this season.  I just don't see it (prob because I am a Bills fan and don't want to lol).

 

That said there are a whole lot of hoping instead of knowing in ne for the first time in a long time.  Brady has covered up a lot of poor drafting over recent years.  

 

Wr - won't have as good of a talent throwing them the ball so I have a hard time seeing them be better with a lesser qb.  

 

Te - I agree they should be better but te is a very hard position to come in as a rookie and excel.

 

Ol - can Wynn be counted on to stay healthy at this point?  Andrews is cleared but still a very big question mark.  Add in that Brady's quick release and Scarnecchia's amazing coachin will be absent this year and I think the oline is a concern.

 

Rb - it will be interesting to see if they do better or worse without Brady.  They should see more volume but also more stacked boxes.

 

Defense - another interesting spot.  We disagree on the impact of those lb losses but I think we can both agree the schedule won't be as easy this year.  I expect the Bill's rankings to drop a bit as well just due to competition level.

 

Kicker - they did win like that but as you state, they will be trying to win grind em out close games.  I think kicker will be more important than it usually is for them as they won't be blowing teams out.

 

I see their range as 6-10 to 9-7 and only because BB is their coach and I think he is that good.  If anyone else was coach I would lower both of those numbers.

[muppy]

12 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

So, I’ve been posting this in numerous threads for a few months. I know there are some people with me on it and some that think it’s crazy. The Pats are a bad team. They will win 6 games (and that’s with the greatest coach ever). Someone please make a case as to why they are a threat in the division? Please don’t use some lame reason like, “because they are king’s until they are not” or “because they are always good.” Give FOOTBALL reasoning as to why they are good!!
 

My reasoning as to why they are bad is that they have no talent on offense. Their OL is pretty good but lost their legendary coach. They have, at best, a massive question mark at QB. At worst, they have the worst QB situation in the league. The Pats likely have the worst set of skill players in the NFL as well. Some people are saying that they are going to run the ball and play defense. Their backs aren’t good and they will be forced to run against loaded boxes because no one fears their passing game. How does this team generate offense?!? Please, someone, tell me...

 

The secondary is really good. The pass rush isn’t. They lost Collins and Van Noy this offseason as well as Danny Shelton. That’s 3 starters in their front 7. That defense is no longer elite (although it could still be a top 10ish unit). 
 

Add that to, statistically, the hardest schedule in the NFL and explain to me what I’m missing? Again, no “because they always are” responses. This team has different players and coaches. I’m asking why THIS team is still a threat?  https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/NE
 

I’m hoping that this thread inspires some thoughtful conversation. I suspect that the trauma of 20 years of being the nail has people living in fear for no reason. They will hide behind “because Belichick” because that’s the ONLY thing to stand behind. I’m not sure how many games, against that schedule, a great coach is good for? I think that they win 6 because of Belichick. That’s a 4 win team otherwise IMO. I’d love to hear a real football argument those as to why they can win? 

Convince you the Pats are good? Pfft I'd rather stick a fork in my eye as IF I'd waste a second of my time giving praise to That team YEAH RIGHT  Signed: bills fan since 1973

[MJS]

These are unprecedented times. Nobody quite knows how the Pats will do.

 

This is nothing like 2008 when they came off an undefeated season with a loaded roster and played an extremely easy schedule. It was Cassel's 4th season in NE and all he had to do was hold the reigns and not screw everything up. The AFC East schedule was so easy that the Miami Dolphins went from a 1 win team to an 11 win team. And then the next year they went back to a sub .500 team (too bad the Bills couldn't capitalize on that).

 

They have basically no talent on offense. They lost three good starters on defense. But, they have Bill Belichick and you know he already has cameras in McDermott's bedroom, along with all the other coaches around the NFL. And he doesn't have to eat or sleep because he sold his soul and is being sustained by the powers of darkness.

 

We'll just see how it goes.

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, MJS said:

These are unprecedented times. Nobody quite knows how the Pats will do.

 

This is nothing like 2008 when they came off an undefeated season with a loaded roster and played an extremely easy schedule. It was Cassel's 4th season in NE and all he had to do was hold the reigns and not screw everything up. The AFC East schedule was so easy that the Miami Dolphins went from a 1 win team to an 11 win team. And then the next year they went back to a sub .500 team (too bad the Bills couldn't capitalize on that).

 

They have basically no talent on offense. They lost three good starters on defense. But, they have Bill Belichick and you know he already has cameras in McDermott's bedroom, along with all the other coaches around the NFL. And he doesn't have to eat or sleep because he sold his soul and is being sustained by the powers of darkness.

 

We'll just see how it goes.

I’m more concerned that one of the Pats 6 wins or 9 wins or 4 wins comes against the Bills. Not concerned about them winning the divison as much as I am that they’ll beat us.

[Rocky Landing]

16 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

So, I’ve been posting this in numerous threads for a few months. I know there are some people with me on it and some that think it’s crazy. The Pats are a bad team. They will win 6 games (and that’s with the greatest coach ever). Someone please make a case as to why they are a threat in the division? Please don’t use some lame reason like, “because they are king’s until they are not” or “because they are always good.” Give FOOTBALL reasoning as to why they are good!!
 

My reasoning as to why they are bad is that they have no talent on offense. Their OL is pretty good but lost their legendary coach. They have, at best, a massive question mark at QB. At worst, they have the worst QB situation in the league. The Pats likely have the worst set of skill players in the NFL as well. Some people are saying that they are going to run the ball and play defense. Their backs aren’t good and they will be forced to run against loaded boxes because no one fears their passing game. How does this team generate offense?!? Please, someone, tell me...

 

The secondary is really good. The pass rush isn’t. They lost Collins and Van Noy this offseason as well as Danny Shelton. That’s 3 starters in their front 7. That defense is no longer elite (although it could still be a top 10ish unit). 
 

Add that to, statistically, the hardest schedule in the NFL and explain to me what I’m missing? Again, no “because they always are” responses. This team has different players and coaches. I’m asking why THIS team is still a threat?  https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/NE
 

I’m hoping that this thread inspires some thoughtful conversation. I suspect that the trauma of 20 years of being the nail has people living in fear for no reason. They will hide behind “because Belichick” because that’s the ONLY thing to stand behind. I’m not sure how many games, against that schedule, a great coach is good for? I think that they win 6 because of Belichick. That’s a 4 win team otherwise IMO. I’d love to hear a real football argument those as to why they can win? 

So, I went onto a Patriots* fan forum and asked these same questions (full disclosure: I plagiarized you massively...), because I have been wondering what their faithful would have to say about such things. And, I have to say, by and large, they seem pretty sober about all of it. At least as far as the upcoming season is concerned. I know quite a few Pats* fans, in fact (my wife, and her entire extended family is from Boston), and they saw the writing on the walls even before Brady* skipped out. Mostly, they are putting all their faith in Belichick*, and his massive brain to execute a full rebuild by 2021, at which point the Fourth Reich begins. Or something like that.

[Richard Noggin]

9 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

At WR - Full offseasons for Harry and Sanu - as well as a small addition of Lee at WR.  Last season they had Gordon and Brown be disasters and get suspended.  They still have Edelman.

 

At TE - Gronk retired in 2019, that sucked as they had nothing behind him.  Now they have 2 players they drafted this season who are likely more talented than anything they carried last year.

 

At OL - Wynn was banged up all year and they started newhouse.  David Andrews missed the entire season.  This had a huge effect on the play of their line.  

 

At RB - Still rolling with Michel and White, with Burkhead and Bolden mixed in.  2 years ago Michel avged 4.5 per carry.

 

Defensive losses were at LB - but they added Dugger (their chung big nickel type), Uche, Jennings in rounds 2 and 3, with Winovich drafted last year.  They lost Flowers the year before and actually improved on defense.  They were also a better defense than buffalo last year by a fairly considerable margin.  They took the ball away much more, and allowed fewer yards and points... first downs... 3rd downs... whatever.  

 

Kicker - they won 12 games with one of the worst kicking game in the league last year.  27/34 on FGs, and 39/45 on XPs.  

 

So yes the BIG one - they lost brady at QB.  Which will hurt their YPG and PPG values a bit i would think.  What are they looking for from Stidham?  Something like what Rudolph/Hodges were able to do with fewer turnovers? Trubiskey's numbers?  Could they win with that?  Smaller margin for error, but do-able.  And the defense will probably put them in some good situations. 

 

Also - If they put up the same points as buffalo last year (good for 23rd in the league) and yards (good for 24th), theoretically they should do similarly in standings.  

I hate every point you make mostly because they could be true. 

 

New England COULD grind out a 9-11 win season on the merits of their stifling defense and ball--control offense, no matter who the QB is.

 

One mitigating, up-yours factor at play here is the annually unpredictable nature of NFL defensive success. But even there we find numbers that don't feel good: since and including 1996, NE's scoring defense has ranked outside the top-10 only six times (IN 24 SEASONS)! They had a fairly bad run of yards-allowed rankings from 2010-14 and 2017-18, but that didn't matter much with prime, top-5 Brady-led offenses. 

 

Belichick really is the best defensive coordinator I've ever seen. He's done it so many times, with so many different rosters. I'd say THAT's the number one argument in favor of the 2020 Pats being good. 

 

Then again, if the offense takes a major step back, that makes it MUCH more difficult for the D to play to its strengths. So that is the potential fly in the Hoodie's three-quarter sleeve ointment.