Examining Brandon Beane’s comp pick hack

[GunnerBill]

59 minutes ago, Buddo said:

I think it was @GunnerBill who talked about this the other week in a thread, and it appears it's just a different approach. Maybe partly circumstantial, but it, atm, appears to be a method of gaining an extra pick or two for next year.

 

Yep. I wrote about this a couple of weeks ago. At this point it is too much of a pattern not to indicate it is strategic.

[billsfan89]

50 minutes ago, apuszczalowski said:

He also did that with one of the greatest QBs of all time, they should have had better success having manning like they did

 

I put that more on coaching than on Polian. Polian gave them the talent. 

[TPS]

1 hour ago, billsfan89 said:

 

The D-line carries 8 typically and currently has 9 players who were either significantly high draft picks or on fairly decent sized contracts. Unless they plan to carry Addison as an LB I think you might be right in that they will look to trade some of that surplus. 

5 DTs are locks. Star, Oliver, Phillips, Butler, Jefferson (can play DE too).

DE- Hughes, Addison, Epenesa Are locks, so I think it comes down to Murphy v Johnson. 

 

Murphy would have very little trade value given his cost, though you might get something...? He’s on the last year of his contract, so he’s more likely cut than traded, which saves $8 mil. 

 

Would they trade Johnson? I hope not. He gives them 3 cheap years and plays STs. Epenesa will “start” next year, so makes sense to keep Johnson as the backup LDE going forward. 

 

I think any trade opportunity is in the O line group again. 

[Orlando Tim]

2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

I did not think of it this way but obviously a 5th rounder in exchange for a player that is excessive to your roster is better than a 3rd rounder for a good player who might be necessary.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[JESSEFEFFER]

Well they are paying for those picks in the sense that they are overstocked on FA signings and whatever bonuses were paid to sign them make a cap hit, although minimal by NFL standards, when they are traded.  Teams with little cap space should be very reluctant to play the game that way.

[apuszczalowski]

27 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I put that more on coaching than on Polian. Polian gave them the talent. 

But wouldn't Polian be able to chose the coaches?

At times I remember that team having talent on offence but lacking a defence

[Just Joshin']

I think there are many strategies based on the talent level, cap space, future draft capital, etc..  Would not be surprised to see him shift strategies as the home grown talent fills the depth chart.

[Mark Vader]

2 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

A front office with a plan, and a guy who is implementing it successfully. Pretty damn refreshing wouldn’t you say fellow Bills fans? ?

I'm impressed.

 

Let Beane do his job. His approach has made this team better and better. Yes, he's not perfect(Kelvin Benjamin), but no one can deny that he is doing what he can to make the Buffalo Bills the best team that he possibly can.

 

Seems unreal that not two years ago, people were wondering if the Bills could lose a game to Alabama. What do they think now?

[BuffaloRebound]

Comp picks just seem like they’ve out-lived their purpose.  It’s the same well run organizations that always get them.  You’re making the rich richer.  They clearly don’t need them.  And when you give out 10 third rounders like this year, not only do the rich get richer, but it dilutes the talent for the other teams.  If the league is gonna keep comp picks, then put quotas on no more than 2 or 3 in the 3rd round or make the 4th round the highest comp pick.  

[apuszczalowski]

2 hours ago, Limeaid said:

Too many teams can't otherwise it will not work.

I think of moneyball in Baseball the same way. it worked great for the A's when they were the only ones doing it, but once other teams started adopting it, those teams start doing the same and the demand starts going up for those players and it just swings the market in a different direction. It works great when your one of the few doing it, but it gets harder to do when everyones trying it.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, Buddo said:

I think it was @GunnerBill who talked about this the other week in a thread, and it appears it's just a different approach. Maybe partly circumstantial, but it, atm, appears to be a method of gaining an extra pick or two for next year.

The reason that it’s a “better play” than trying to get a comp pick is that you don’t have to sacrifice for it. When teams get comp picks it’s because they had a net negative in terms of players added. Beane’s strategy is to add twice as many guys as he needs. He dumps the surplus for the same picks and remains net neutral (plus the pick). It’s kind of genius. Wyatt Teller and Russell Bodine are perfect examples.

[machine gun kelly]

2 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

I mean - butler did a pretty good job for the most part.  I think he hung onto the super bowl guys a bit too long, but Rob Johnson was the big killer to his buffalo tenure.  Everyone after that was pretty terrible.  Polian also didn't have to deal with free agency, but he obviously had a great eye for talent.  

 

I like Beane's strategy - use the draft to get studs, and fill out the roster with lots of depth.  I've never seen a bills team so deep as they continue to build here.  

No arguments other than to add as much as I loved Butler and the defense he put together, he put us in cap he’ll, and partially because Donahue was a tool and should have just completely taken it on the chin to fix it, and partially because he made arrogant moves taking McGahee with a catastrophic injury that could have not worked out at all.

[apuszczalowski]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Comp picks just seem like they’ve out-lived their purpose.  It’s the same well run organizations that always get them.  You’re making the rich richer.  They clearly don’t need them.  And when you give out 10 third rounders like this year, not only do the rich get richer, but it dilutes the talent for the other teams.  If the league is gonna keep comp picks, then put quotas on no more than 2 or 3 in the 3rd round or make the 4th round the highest comp pick.  

I don't think they have outlived their purpose, but I think the problem is that some organizations are milking the system for not what it was intended for. The Pats for most of their run, have been able to let go of high end players at the end of their prime and other teams were suckered into giving them big deals that helped the Pats return. They were also able to get higher end players to sign cheaper deals to get a chance to play for a championship so it swung the comp pick equation in  their favour.

[John from Riverside]

44 minutes ago, TPS said:

5 DTs are locks. Star, Oliver, Phillips, Butler, Jefferson (can play DE too).

DE- Hughes, Addison, Epenesa Are locks, so I think it comes down to Murphy v Johnson. 

 

Murphy would have very little trade value given his cost, though you might get something...? He’s on the last year of his contract, so he’s more likely cut than traded, which saves $8 mil. 

 

Would they trade Johnson? I hope not. He gives them 3 cheap years and plays STs. Epenesa will “start” next year, so makes sense to keep Johnson as the backup LDE going forward. 

 

I think any trade opportunity is in the O line group again. 

Murphy really looking like trade bait for a later round pick.....

[thurst44]

1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

Murphy really looking like trade bait for a later round pick.....

Maybe, especially if they need money. However, I would not be surprised if he's more of a lock than people think. Re-watching the season: he was a beast in the last few games. 

 

I'd almost suggest Hughes might be on the block if they could get a decent return for him. However, I could also see them keeping 9, or even 10 players technically designated as defensive line and doing a ton of rotating and mixing up formations. 

[Big Turk]

3 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

I mean - butler did a pretty good job for the most part.  I think he hung onto the super bowl guys a bit too long, but Rob Johnson was the big killer to his buffalo tenure.  Everyone after that was pretty terrible.  Polian also didn't have to deal with free agency, but he obviously had a great eye for talent.  

 

I like Beane's strategy - use the draft to get studs, and fill out the roster with lots of depth.  I've never seen a bills team so deep as they continue to build here.  

 

Butler's last draft was among the worst in the history of the NFL. In fact it was so bad that I will always believe that he tanked it on purpose because he knew he was gone after that year. His track record as a personnel evaluator makes it near impossible to miss that badly on that many picks.

Edited May 5, 2020 by matter2003

[GunnerBill]

The other thing that is interesting is even when he collects those extra picks he doesn't use them to pick players. He isn't like Miami making 11 picks. He stock piles mid round picks to allow him to get the guys at the top of the draft that he really wants (or in non draft trades like Diggs). For a man who has acquired so many picks trading away players he has only actually made 23 picks in 3 drafts.

[Albany,n.y.]

2 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Not sure Polian had the temperament to deal with free agency  era as well either.  Yes he had success in Indy and Carolina, but not as good as in Bufflalo.  He seems like the type that would take it personally if a player were t o sign elsewhere.

Polian was around when there was Plan B free agency.  The two biggest signees were Kenneth Davis & Steve Christie.  Among the losses was Martin Mayhew, who the Bills stashed on IR his rookie year, a common practice back then with late rounders who showed promise, & then Washington swooped in and signed him as a Plan B free agent.  Polian was upset when Mayhew left, but he tried to have it both ways.  Sam Wyche went nuts when we signed Christie away from Tampa Bay because he put Christie on Plan B after Christie promised him he'd stay in Tampa yet signed with the Bills about a minute after he was eligible to sign with another team.  https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/os-xpm-1992-02-06-9202060666-story.html

 

Wyche was furious and said there might have been a conspiracy between the Bills and Christie's agent, Gil Scott.

"It happened so fast it makes you wonder if anything was planned ahead of time," Wyche said. "We're disappointed only in the fact we did a deal with people we felt we could trust and it didn't work out."

Countered Scott: "Somebody's been watching too many JFK movies. There wasn't a lot of negotiating and I guarantee there was no plot."

Scott claims his client signed after the Bills offered an agreement allowing Christie to surpass New Orleans' Morten Andersen as the NFL's highest-paid kicker. Christie, who was scheduled to earn $350,000 in base salary and bonuses with the Bucs, received a substantial signing bonus and will earn more than $550,000 next season from the Bills.

Edited May 5, 2020 by Albany,n.y.

[WhoTom]

Beane's strategy makes sense. A draft pick is a crap shoot, while a free-agent is a proven commodity. Why worry about an extra mid-round pick that may or may not pan out when there's a vet available who's already played at this level?

 

Compensatory picks are like consolation prizes; it's better to win the game.

 

 

[machine gun kelly]

Christie is a good guy.  He lives in Apollo Beach south of Brandon and come to a famous Bills Backers Bar in Brandon, FL ((East suburb of Tampa) quite often, and met his family and talked with him about his career, Norwood’s who he is still very good friends, and others.  Great guy and his wife and daughters were sweet.  I don’t believe he did anything untoward regarding this issue.