Examining Brandon Beane’s comp pick hack

[JoeF]

Play in a little Jeopardy.  The answer is Robert Foster, House Money and Trent Murphy.  
 

The question is “who does GM BB turn into picks at the end of training camp this year?

[Bobby Hooks]

Kinda wish he woulda kept this to himself. 

[blacklabel]

5 hours ago, BigBuff423 said:

I keep saying, and I will keep saying it - Brandon Beane is the best GM this organization has had since the Polian era and he and McD are absolutely perfect fit for Buffalo. Beane is supremely gifted at this GM business, smart, tremendous instinct and an amiable figure to be able to engage players, personnel, and agents alike. Fantastic.

 

Yeah but, Beane didn't do a thing I thought he should've done. And then McDermott did a thing I thought should've been done but not in the way I wanted. Therefore, these bums just can't be trusted. I am a fan and they owe this to me. I pay these guys salaries, ya know. Cause this one time I bought a plate of nachos at the game and that was like $63 bucks, man. I ain't no dummy. I know that money lines them Mean Beane pockets. The fact that the nacho cheese poured down the front of my pants and scalded my, uh, thing, is irrelevant! They still owe me exactly one nachos and to do things the way I say they should be done. Because again, I pay the salaries and my football expertise generated over years of babbling on internet forums far surpasses anything those two dumdums think they know. 

[JGMcD2]

2 hours ago, apuszczalowski said:

I think of moneyball in Baseball the same way. it worked great for the A's when they were the only ones doing it, but once other teams started adopting it, those teams start doing the same and the demand starts going up for those players and it just swings the market in a different direction. It works great when your one of the few doing it, but it gets harder to do when everyones trying it.

You’re 100% right. That’s why if you’re the best at your craft, like a Bill Belicheck, you start to see when things are going to zig and you zag.

 

Sports are cyclical, people think it’s a pattern of upward growth. Instead you go through the phases of rebuilding, competing and declining. Being able to stretch out that competing cycle by reinventing yourself is how you stay on top. 

[Mr. WEO]

6 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Are other teams really "obsessing over comp picks" to the point that they are not "focused on adding roster-worthy talent"?

 

I mean, come on....

[Alphadawg7]

Ive been saying this a while now...Brandon Beane is a top 3 GM in the NFL right now and we need to extend him.  Honestly, there is not a single GM I would swap him with personally.  I am not worried about losing him though, I genuinely believe Beane loves being in Buffalo, loves the team, city, and McD.  I think he plans to be here for the long haul.

 

But still, extend this man now for 5 years please.  He is just an excellent GM and there are not that many to go around.  

 

Then...extend McD.  He is the right coach for this team and even city.  He is already IMO one of the best young coaches in the NFL right now and expect he is both going to get even better as this roster has really come together now, and be highly sought after if we let him get near the end of his contract. 

 

CONTINUITY!  Lock these guys down now, they are the real deal and should be here for the foreseeable future!

[dayman]

McBean for President

[HankBulloughMellencamp]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Ive been saying this a while now...Brandon Beane is a top 3 GM in the NFL right now and we need to extend him.  Honestly, there is not a single GM I would swap him with personally.  I am not worried about losing him though, I genuinely believe Beane loves being in Buffalo, loves the team, city, and McD.  I think he plans to be here for the long haul.

 

But still, extend this man now for 5 years please.  He is just an excellent GM and there are not that many to go around.  

 

Then...extend McD.  He is the right coach for this team and even city.  He is already IMO one of the best young coaches in the NFL right now and expect he is both going to get even better as this roster has really come together now, and be highly sought after if we let him get near the end of his contract. 

 

CONTINUITY!  Lock these guys down now, they are the real deal and should be here for the foreseeable future!

 

This times a million.

 

Hopefully the Pegulas are smart enough to reward the true professional competency on the big half of their 'OneBuffalo' portfolio.

 

We all know how the Sabres organization (and other offshoots) are faring/have fared thus far under their leadership.

 

The Sabres are now at the point where many ultra loyal fans are about to revolt in record numbers after being taken for granted for too long.  And this eventuality has nothing to do with the pandemic, but now coupled with it, will only magnify the mutiny we'll soon see.

 

Edited May 6, 2020 by HankBulloughMellencamp

[WhoTom]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Are other teams really "obsessing over comp picks" to the point that they are not "focused on adding roster-worthy talent"?

 

I mean, come on....

 

Yeah, the article is pretty much a fluff piece. No minicamps or OTAs to report on, so this is what they have to write about.

 

[Phil The Thrill]

8 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This was a good article but the title is a bit misleading.  His hack is.....there is no hack?  

[ganesh]

6 hours ago, apuszczalowski said:

He also did that with one of the greatest QBs of all time, they should have had better success having manning like they did

100%   they should have had at least 304 SB wins,

 

Even the one they won, they beat a average Chicago team

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

I guess I'm glad Beane has an actual reason for ignoring the comp pick formula, but I find his reasoning to be myopic. 

 

Sure, a proven vet backup like Teller probably adds more immediate value to your roster than a comp pick. BUT he costs a lot more in salary, and has no upside. Best case for a player like Teller is that we trade him for a mid/late round pick and eat some dead cap (or we suffer a lot of injuries and we're forced to start him). Whereas a comp pick has a small chance of turning into a star player while on a rookie contract. 

 

 

 

 

[John from Riverside]

5 hours ago, thurst44 said:

Maybe, especially if they need money. However, I would not be surprised if he's more of a lock than people think. Re-watching the season: he was a beast in the last few games. 

 

I'd almost suggest Hughes might be on the block if they could get a decent return for him. However, I could also see them keeping 9, or even 10 players technically designated as defensive line and doing a ton of rotating and mixing up formations. 

Jerry Hughes extremely under rated to me.....he really is the only pure speed rusher we have and that does have its place.

[thurst44]

4 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Jerry Hughes extremely under rated to me.....he really is the only pure speed rusher we have and that does have its place.

Don't get me wrong; I love Hughes -- he was a great acquisition and I want him in Buffalo if we have a SB run, and getting his finishing move back in the playoff game might be a good omen. It's just a weird feeling I have that with all the potential 8-12 sack level rushers and Beane's ability to get higher draft picks than one would suspect, that they might consider him expendable. I hope I'm wrong. Again, I also have a bit of a suspicion that they will keep an absurd number of defensive linemen.

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, WhoTom said:

 

Yeah, the article is pretty much a fluff piece. No minicamps or OTAs to report on, so this is what they have to write about.

 

 

 

Hardly needs it....guys lining up to fluff him right here 24/7 lol

[Inigo Montoya]

10 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Hardly needs it....guys lining up to fluff him right here 24/7 lol

You are so right Mr. Weo.  I too tire of posters here having good things to say about Brandon Beane. The truly intelligent posters on TBD, like yourself, realize that Beane’s time as GM here has been a catastrophe on every level.

 

I wish more people followed your philosophy for posting here, “If you don’t have something bad to say about someone, then don’t say anything at all.”

 

Edited May 6, 2020 by Inigo Montoya

[Buddo]

13 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The reason that it’s a “better play” than trying to get a comp pick is that you don’t have to sacrifice for it. When teams get comp picks it’s because they had a net negative in terms of players added. Beane’s strategy is to add twice as many guys as he needs. He dumps the surplus for the same picks and remains net neutral (plus the pick). It’s kind of genius. Wyatt Teller and Russell Bodine are perfect examples.

 

The thing I particularly like about it, is that it adds competition to everything.

 

It means that the guys we do hang onto, are 'buying in' and have both worked to earn their spot, and shown they are better than the guy(s) who are going to be traded.

 

I also like the fact that it appears to be a quite effective way of improving your roster, without being totally reliant on incoming draft picks.

 

Belicheck often drafts a bunch of guys who he thinks will fit what he wants them to do, and will discard those who don't measure up. I think this is a similar approach, but by using relatively cheap vets, you don't have so much of a learning curve, and it can become more quickkly apparent, who is going to 'stick'.

[GunnerBill]

10 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Ive been saying this a while now...Brandon Beane is a top 3 GM in the NFL right now and we need to extend him.  Honestly, there is not a single GM I would swap him with personally.  I am not worried about losing him though, I genuinely believe Beane loves being in Buffalo, loves the team, city, and McD.  I think he plans to be here for the long haul.

 

But still, extend this man now for 5 years please.  He is just an excellent GM and there are not that many to go around.  

 

Then...extend McD.  He is the right coach for this team and even city.  He is already IMO one of the best young coaches in the NFL right now and expect he is both going to get even better as this roster has really come together now, and be highly sought after if we let him get near the end of his contract. 

 

CONTINUITY!  Lock these guys down now, they are the real deal and should be here for the foreseeable future!

 

This is such an Alpha post.... and I do mean that with love and respect but it is a little overexcited.

 

Beane is the best GM the Bills have had in my fandom, McDermott is the best coach the Bills have had in my fandom and they are perfectly aligned with each other in executing a strategy (something I think barring Gailey and Nix I can't ever remember another GM-HC tandem being in my fandom). I agree that both should be extended and should be extended sooner, rather than later. I'd actually prioritise McDermott of the two but I am very happy with both and I want them here for the long haul. As for worrying about him leaving... I can't ever remember a GM leaving one team for another. Maybe it has happened but I don't recall it. I think he is here until he is fired (which I believe will be some way into the future.... but as the old saying goes there are only two types of coaches.... those that have been fired and those that are gonna get fired.... it is the same with GMs).

 

But top 3 in the league and not another GM you'd swap him for? Come on now. He has yet to produce a roster capable of winning in the postseason and he is yet to draft a Pro Bowl player, let alone an All Pro. I think there is a chance that some of the young guys he has drafted become that.... I love Ed Oliver, I like Tremaine Edmunds a lot and Josh is still improving. They could each end up as elite players in this league IMO. But I think let's hold off on crowning Brandon Beane until it happens. He is a good, young, General Manager. I like his philosophy, other than Josh Allen (where people know what my view was pre-draft) he seems to value players very similarly to me come draft time... the last two drafts at times I have even thought he had stolen my board. I am excited about where the team can go. But I am not a big belief guy. I am a bring home the bacon guy. Before Beane gets thrown in that elite GM talk is team needs to win in the post season and the guys he has acquired need to make pro bowls and be in the all pro conversation. If that happens then I am comfortable with talk about him as a top 3 GM.

 

 

[Buddo]

I really like Beane, but it is too soon to anoint him, imho.

 

There are challenging times ahead, which will include some difficult decisions, and tricky negotiations. If he comes out on top with those, then it will probably be time to extend him (and McDermott).

 

The point about waiting and seeing as regards his draft choices, is also well made. While it all looks good so far, there is still a way to go before we can assess properly how well he's done with his drafting.

 

He has by no means been perfect, as he will readily admit, but he does appear to learn from his mistakes.

 

If, for some indeterminate reason, I had to decide now, I would extend him, but unlike in another year or two, when I feel it will be a 'no brainer' decision, I wouldn't be especially comfortable in doing so.

[spartacus]

17 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

I mean - butler did a pretty good job for the most part.  I think he hung onto the super bowl guys a bit too long, but Rob Johnson was the big killer to his buffalo tenure.  Everyone after that was pretty terrible.  Polian also didn't have to deal with free agency, but he obviously had a great eye for talent.  

 

I like Beane's strategy - use the draft to get studs, and fill out the roster with lots of depth.  I've never seen a bills team so deep as they continue to build here.  

Butler was a very good talent evaluator.

However, he was not very good at any of the GM  skills beyond that, including team building strategy.

Maybe it was Littman's directive, but Butler delegated all understanding of the salary cap, which was new then