RD 2, Pick 54: DE AJ Epenesa, University of Iowa

[ganesh]

5 minutes ago, vincec said:

I’m not sure who this disrespects more, Phil Hansen or Aaron Schobel.

neither.  It is just a fan's opinion.  who cares!

[Dirtyd415]

1 hour ago, Victory Formation said:

Nahhhhhh. You take Epenesa there. Epenesa should have gone in the 18-22 range. He has Pro Bowl talent at DE. The fact that he was available at 54 is unreal. Had any of us fans mocked Epenesa to us at 54 we would have been laughed at, mocked and ridiculed and maybe even accused of having a bit too much to drink. Epenesa at 54 is a highway robbery in every sense of the word. There is no other option at 54. Epenesa is 10000000000000.0000000% the right pick there. 

31 other Franchises didn’t think he was any better than late second round....most passed on him twice.  I hope he’s a very productive starter for many years for us, I’m just not quite as impressed with his film/body of work as most seem to be.  He was projected to be a top 10 pick before the 2019 NCAA season...after showing basically no growth/improvement on the field he had an overall letdown of a season and here we are with him sitting in the mid 50s.  Quality role player?  I think so...dominant game changer?  Doubt it but I’d love to be wrong!

[Lurker]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

”“I just don’t know how much fire there is internally in him to achieve,” a third scout said. “It’s not like he’s a bad kid, by any stretch. I just don’t see that J.J. Watt-type desire and motivation to be great.”

 

The quotes McGinn gets from scouts are intereresing but full of "smoke" in many cases, IMO ("He's a guard!").    I've read his scout "feedback" year after year when he worked in Milwaukee and you have to parse what's genuine from what's FUD being planted to camoflage players.    

 

Here's what scouts "told" him about Christian McCaffrey in 2017:

 

“Everyone’s anointing him as the next great white (hope),” said a third scout. “I’m a little skeptical. He didn’t dominate as much as he did sophomore year. Why is that? What’s the value of a third-down back and return specialist?”

 

Or Zay Jones:  

 

 “Top three ball skills in this draft,” said one scout. “He’s physical. He is a good route runner. Great kid."

 

 

[dgrochester55]

10 hours ago, Green Lightning said:

Sorry, I just feel like we drafted Chris Kelsay.

 

Its possible, but I am seeing more of an Aaron Schobel or Phil Hansen where they are good but not elite.

 

I always felt bad for Kelsay.  He took a lot of heat that should have been reserved for the ownership at the time.   Kelsay would have been a perfectly acceptable rotational defensive lineman that was used in run stopping situations.   Unfortunately the lack of appeal to free agents at the time and the penny pinching of Ralph Wilson resulted in a lack of talent and as a result the franchise paying and marketing Kelsay as if he was the face of the defense and a top tier defensive end.     Of course, the fans didn't buy it and when the defense would get gashed for 30 or 40 points, Kelsay was an easy target and scapegoat.   Kelsay would have looked better if he was the third or fourth best defensive end on a team instead of the best or second best one.    Nice guy and good team player, just put in a bad position. 

Edited April 25, 2020 by dgrochester55

[Coach Tuesday]

5 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

The quotes McGinn gets from scouts are intereresing but full of "smoke" in many cases, IMO ("He's a guard!").    I've read his scout "feedback" year after year when he worked in Milwaukee and you have to parse what's genuine from what's FUD being planted to camoflage players.    

 

Here's what scouts "told" him about Christian McCaffrey in 2017:

 

“Everyone’s anointing him as the next great white (hope),” said a third scout. “I’m a little skeptical. He didn’t dominate as much as he did sophomore year. Why is that? What’s the value of a third-down back and return specialist?”

 

Or Zay Jones:  

 

 “Top three ball skills in this draft,” said one scout. “He’s physical. He is a good route runner. Great kid."

 

 

Don’t think it’s smoke as much as some guys just being wrong.  I highly doubt some sly scout was purposely pumping out disinformation hype about Zay Jones so he’d be overdrafted...

[vincec]

10 hours ago, BillsVet said:

I was being sarcastic. The HC believes his defense can beat great offenses. He’s 3-17 career against playoff teams. More defense leading to wins is a fallacy. 

I don’t think McDermott believes that at all. I think he wants a dynamic, passing offense a la Andy Reid. He’s just not Andy Reid so he’s not sure how to accomplish that. They’re working on it.

[Mr. K]

I think I found the play the helped make this pick for Beane. 7:00 minute mark

 

AJ Epenesa Film (Made by a Panthers fan of course)

 

Good play recognition and pursuit. Really the only burst I've seen him have on film. I would imagine he gets more sacks than the artist known as Aaron Maybin.

[MAJBobby]

 

[Einstein's Dog]

10 minutes ago, Dirtyd415 said:

31 other Franchises didn’t think he was any better than late second round....most passed on him twice.  I hope he’s a very productive starter for many years for us, I’m just not quite as impressed with his film/body of work as most seem to be.  He was projected to be a top 10 pick before the 2019 NCAA season...after showing basically no growth/improvement on the field he had an overall letdown of a season and here we are with him sitting in the mid 50s.  Quality role player?  I think so...dominant game changer?  Doubt it but I’d love to be wrong!

Even if he just becomes a quality rotational DE, that is still a great pickup in the long term - excellent strategy.  Look at how much good DEs cost, they are in the 8-10 million range.  

How long do you think it will take before he is better than Murphy.  End of this year I would say.  Helps for succession planning for the moving out of Hughes and Addison.

Great intermediate to long term team planning.

[Lurker]

3 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Don’t think it’s smoke as much as some guys just being wrong.  I highly doubt some sly scout was purposely pumping out disinformation hype about Zay Jones so he’d be overdrafted...

 

If that's the case, there's as much "wrong" as right with many of the scouts he talks to. 

 

I can't believe those scouts would continue to be employed year after year if they were consistently wrong about guys.    I know the draft is a crap shoot, but for every positive evaluation McGinn gets, he seems to find negative quotes to balance it out--leading to a muddled picture (which is what I think a lot of scouts like to do when planting opinions in the press for everyone to read)...   

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Lurker]

28 minutes ago, Mr. K said:

I think I found the play the helped make this pick for Beane. 7:00 minute mark

 

AJ Epenesa Film (Made by a Panthers fan of course)

 

Good play recognition and pursuit. Really the only burst I've seen him have on film. I would imagine he gets more sacks than the artist known as Aaron Maybin.

 

That was a good film review and the absolute best way to look at a prospect--full game tape rather than highlight cut ups.     The one thing to keep in mind--the 2019 games reviewed here were early in the season--when Epenesa, in his own words, was struggling to learn how to handle all the double teaming he was getting.  He was much better later in the season.

 

The one thing that was worrisome to me was his ball recognition, where I disagree with you a bit.  There were a bunch of times where he seemed to lose sight of the play and it went right past him, or he could have made a better break on the runner.    He'll have to clean that up, as well as learn some more pass rush moves beyond just the bull rush...

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

[Victory Formation]

52 minutes ago, Dirtyd415 said:

31 other Franchises didn’t think he was any better than late second round....most passed on him twice.  I hope he’s a very productive starter for many years for us, I’m just not quite as impressed with his film/body of work as most seem to be.  He was projected to be a top 10 pick before the 2019 NCAA season...after showing basically no growth/improvement on the field he had an overall letdown of a season and here we are with him sitting in the mid 50s.  Quality role player?  I think so...dominant game changer?  Doubt it but I’d love to be wrong!

A 2nd round grade is a 2nd round grade. I’d say players taken between RDS1-3 should be starting caliber and if you’re a good GM you can find starters/role players in the 4th. As far as having a let down season is concerned he still logged 11.5 sacks. Epenesa has the talent to be a 10 or 12 sack per year kind of guy. He has a great bull rush and I value that higher than speed and finesse moves. Epenesa should have been taken in the 1st.

[thebandit27]

I’m beginning to wonder if the plan isn’t to play Addison in the LorAx role with AJE and Jefferson playing in Shaq’s spot—Addison would reduce down to 9T in pass rush sets with AJE and Jefferson playing the inside spots.

[Magox]

45 minutes ago, Aireskoi said:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001111326/article/2020-nfl-draft-dandre-swift-among-day-2s-top-value-picks

 

2) A.J. Epenesa, Edge, Buffalo Bills

 

Drafted No. 54 overall (Round 2).

 

 

Epenesa was the 20th overall player on my neutral-fit model, which ranks players independent of landing spot. But put him on the Bills roster ... and yikes for AFC East QBs. Buffalo's defense ranked in the top 10 in all the predictive metrics that I track last year without Epenesa, so the rich get richer. The Iowa edge rusher's 58 QB pressures led the Big Ten last season, per PFF. He could have easily gone in the first round, so to fall to Pick No. 54 and to this team, offers significant value. The Bills' stacked defense should enhance his positives and help mask his still-developing traits. As of right now -- at the end of Day 2 (and admittedly way too early) -- the Bills are my model's AFC East favorite with Epenesa helping to increase that margin of victory.

 

The idea that this guys ceiling is a 6-8 sack guy is silly.  There is no indication or anything that suggests that this will be the case.  The fact that he has always gotten sacks throughout his career, that he was one of the leaders in college at winning his one on one battles and that he led a major conference in the Big Ten with 58 pressures show that this guy gets after it.

 

He’s going to be a great fit for this team and will be the eventual starter within a couple years.

[Kirby Jackson]

6 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I’m beginning to wonder if the plan isn’t to play Addison in the LorAx role with AJE and Jefferson playing in Shaq’s spot—Addison would reduce down to 9T in pass rush sets with AJE and Jefferson playing the inside spots.

Interesting thought Bandit and probably right. That’s one way to preserve Addison too. He really tailed off last year so maybe that keeps him fresher?

 

In general, the pick was a solid B IMO. I thought some of the guys that were going to go later were going to be better pass rushers. I still believe that. I think that Epenesa has a high floor though. He will help the team as soon as this year. The same with Moss. With the Bills window seemingly open I like getting guys that you know will contribute early. With that being said, I’d take a couple of shots today knowing that there are limited holes and roster spots. 

[thebandit27]

Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

Interesting thought Bandit and probably right. That’s one way to preserve Addison too. He really tailed off last year so maybe that keeps him fresher?

 

In general, the pick was a solid B IMO. I thought some of the guys that were going to go later were going to be better pass rushers. I still believe that. I think that Epenesa has a high floor though. He will help the team as soon as this year. The same with Moss. With the Bills window seemingly open I like getting guys that you know will contribute early. With that being said, I’d take a couple of shots today knowing that there are limited holes and roster spots. 

Indeed. With Klein and Matakevich in the fold they can limit Addison’s snaps at OLB as well; really keep him for the EDGE rush role.

[JohnC]

6 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Interesting thought Bandit and probably right. That’s one way to preserve Addison too. He really tailed off last year so maybe that keeps him fresher?

 

In general, the pick was a solid B IMO. I thought some of the guys that were going to go later were going to be better pass rushers. I still believe that. I think that Epenesa has a high floor though. He will help the team as soon as this year. The same with Moss. With the Bills window seemingly open I like getting guys that you know will contribute early. With that being said, I’d take a couple of shots today knowing that there are limited holes and roster spots. 

Your evaluation is similar to the evaluation that Greg Cosell gave to WGR after the pick. This is a 4 min segment from the WGR John Murphy Show. Cosell pointed out that he felt that in pass rushing situations that Espenesa could also do it from the tackle position. 

https://wgr550.radio.com/media/audio-channel/4-24-greg-cosell-on-aj-epenesa

 

Edited April 25, 2020 by JohnC

[ALF]

The NFL Draft's 10 best edge rushers ranked

 

2. AJ EPENESA, IOWA

 

. Many view Epenesa as a first-round sleeper in the draft. In two full seasons with the Hawkeyes defensive line rotation, Epenesa put up 30.5 TFLs and 22 sacks. Epenesa was a big recruiting win for the Hawkeyes three seasons ago as the No. 1 defensive end in the country and a 247Sports Composite five-star recruit from Edwardsville (Ill.).

 

https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/NFL-Draft-2020-best-edge-rushers-ranked-Chase-Young-AJ-Epenesa-Yetur-Gross-Matos-145995796/#145995796_2