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SI Article: forget about sports this year


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We are operating on so little real data that all of these predictions are just uniformed guesses. 

 

Lets put it in term this board can understand, it is like your average sports writing giving an opinion on Josh Allen's 2019 performance after not watching a single Bills game last year. Said writer will just regurgitate some narrative they had heard and pass it along as fact. That is what we are seeing even from these experts because no one has enough real data yet.

 

We need to have two things to understand where we are today:

1) Test a random portion of the population of various cities to see if they currently have the coronavirus.

2) Test a random portion of the population of various cities to see if they have had the cornonavirus (antibody test). 

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

True but we will have to see where we are in July. Cuomo said yesterday that the worst is over for NY. Is he right, I don't know but he is updated daily on the numbers with this thing. If football isn't played this fall and we don't have some kind of normalcy then we are much bigger trouble then just having no football season. At some point the world has to start moving again.

If this country isn’t moving again by summer they will need to make damn sure there are a lot of trained therapists and psychologists to treat all the depression and insanity that will develop. 

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4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I think the only way there is not a season is if we fall foul to the second peak ie. we relax measures too soon and suddenly infections shoot up again. If we get the timing right on that then by September I expect there to be a season. Whether there is any pre-season / camp and whether there are full stadiums is a question mark. I can see stadium attendances being at the very least capped. Every game will look like a Chargers home game. :D

I agree.  By September, there will be significant confidence in the treatments for people who contract the virus.  It is also becoming more evident that specific pre-existing conditions create the most severe threat to people that contract the virus.  Hopefully by then, people with those conditions will be informed enough to avoid situations that could harm them.  Lastly, there is too much money and fan driven desire for there not to be a football season.  How would you like to be a politician that prevents fans from having an NFL season?

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9 minutes ago, nucci said:

because vaccines cause autism.

Sarcasm is fun ?

They also cause the ability to retire one day at a not so old age, which is just an awful thing, don’t ya think... ?

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3 minutes ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

I agree.  By September, there will be significant confidence in the treatments for people who contract the virus.  It is also becoming more evident that specific pre-existing conditions create the most severe threat to people that contract the virus.  Hopefully by then, people with those conditions will be informed enough to avoid situations that could harm them.  Lastly, there is too much money and fan driven desire for there not to be a football season.  How would you like to be a politician that prevents fans from having an NFL season?

I would hope any elected officials would not give a rats ass about that. 
Although I can just see some whining putz thinking that is an important thing to base their vote on. 
 

Stay healthy Bills Nation!!!

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10 minutes ago, PetermansRedemption said:

If this country isn’t moving again by summer they will need to make damn sure there are a lot of trained therapists and psychologists to treat all the depression and insanity that will develop. 

 

I would hope before summer. We are looking at global recession now but how long it will last depends in part how quickly the world can get moving again. I don't know if it will be later this month (I hope so but I don't think so) but I would like to think by May some businesses start up again. Large gatherings like sports and concerts will probably be the last thing to open up. I haven't heard any official announcement but the NHL/NBA 2019-20 season has to be finished. Baseball might get a shortened season in. I would imagine they would need 2-4 weeks of training camp before starting the season. Hoping a full NFL season can be saved.

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If you think there won't be sports, then you have to accept that there won't be school as well. What is the difference between thousands of students packing into schools every day and thousands of fans packing a stadium once a week? 

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13 minutes ago, PetermansRedemption said:

Well, it’s a hell of a lot easier to control 300 employees who want to make money than it is to control 70,000 random members of the public. I really don’t think it would be very difficult to have a season at all, providing there is a reliable, rapid test available. You treat both teams like they are playing an away game. Everyone of the home team gets rapidly tested before entering the hotel the night before. Everyone of the away team gets rapidly tested before getting on the plane. Anyone who tests positive stays home and self quarantines and monitors for symptoms. 

I mean is it? Everyone is being told to stay in their homes and we can't even handle that. You think all these millionaire professional athletes, not to mention all the support staff who have families are just going to self isolate for 4 months for your entertainment?

 

Almost 24,000 people have died in the US from this. Just under 3000 died on 9/11. We have been dumping money around the world, sending soldiers to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan to keep us safe from one 9/11 happening again. We've already had that for 8 days now and were a month into dealing with this. 

 

I want normal, I want sports too, but even talking about opening up the country or sports right now is incredibly short sighted. 

 

 

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The only sport I can see working for the 2020 season is golf. Golf with no fans. It's easier to practice social distancing with golf. Football has a small chance unless the vaccine comes out in the fall but even then there would be precautions. 

17 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

I would hope before summer. We are looking at global recession now but how long it will last depends in part how quickly the world can get moving again. I don't know if it will be later this month (I hope so but I don't think so) but I would like to think by May some businesses start up again. Large gatherings like sports and concerts will probably be the last thing to open up. I haven't heard any official announcement but the NHL/NBA 2019-20 season has to be finished. Baseball might get a shortened season in. I would imagine they would need 2-4 weeks of training camp before starting the season. Hoping a full NFL season can be saved.

Pretty much no chance for large gatherings at concerts, sporting events, festivals and amusement parks for this summer. Believe me it sucks. 

Edited by Halloween Land
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3 minutes ago, Halloween Land said:

The only sport I can see working for the 2020 season is golf. Golf with no fans. It's easier to practice social distancing with golf. Football has a small chance unless the vaccine comes out in the fall but even then there would be precautions. 

 

What about tennis. No fans just the ump and the two players. Social distancing could work for that as well.

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10 minutes ago, Bleedbuffaloblue said:

Yeah, unless this virus is miraculously wiped out this summer by natural or synthetic means which is highly unlikely all this talk of sports starting back up is just that, talk. A lot of overly optimistic hot air. The logistics are just too daunting when you start really seriously thinking about it and all the ramifications.

As the article says a vaccine is the key. Who knows how long the development and distribution of such will take. I’ve heard anywhere from this fall until this time next year, but no one really knows.

No one wants to fathom the idea of no sports until 2021, but it sure is getting to look like that could be the way this thing ultimately shakes out.

Figures just when our Bills team is ready to make some serious noise the whole thing gets put on hold. Guess we can plan to add “no season” to the list of frustrating moments for our favorite sports teams.

 

We don't know for sure if doctors will ever come up with a vaccine.  And even if they do, it will be at least 2021 before they can complete full testing/clinical trials and be confident it doesn't cause disastrous side-effects.

 

If people are planning to wait for a vaccine before they are willing to re-open society, then a lot of these things we love are going to disappear permanently.  And professional sports are not exempt from that.  Even billionaires don't have an infinite amount of money to just sit on the sidelines without income for 12-18 months.  I was reading yesterday that Disney is losing $20-30 million PER DAY by having their parks closed.  Many of these NFL owners are taking huge losses on multiple areas of their business.

 

Listening to health experts, there are multiple ways (even without a vaccine) that we can gradually work our way back into normalcy.  This includes getting back to large public gatherings like sports.

 

One is by offering extensive testing, which can identify who has the virus currently (so they can be quarantined faster) and who has already recovered from it.  Once a person has recovered, they are immune and can be released to operate as normal without being a risk of getting infected again or being a carrier and infecting another person.  This is called herd immunity.  It's very likely that MANY people have already had this and didn't even know.  As you can imagine, coming up with 328 million tests for every individual in the country is a very tall task.  So right now, the tests are being prioritized for those showing serious symptoms.  But as time goes along, it's more likely we can achieve the ability to test most, if not all Americans.

 

Second is by discovering medicines, drugs and treatments for the virus.  This will not take anywhere near as long as a vaccine, especially if something is found among currently FDA-approved drugs.  There are already multiple treatments (specifically those currently used to treat Malaria and Ebola) which are already being prescribed by doctors for critically-ill patients and proving to be very effective against this virus. 

 

Third is by making adjustments to our practices at large gatherings.  Requiring people to wear masks.  Taking temperatures at the door/gate.  Taking extra steps to sanitize.  Etc.

 

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1 hour ago, Captain Hindsight said:

Why does everyone assume that having 22 grown men running around on a field, not to mention another 100 people on the sidelines, media and refs is safe for those 300 people, but having fans there too is suddenly not safe?

 

There will be no football until we have this under control. Whether thats a vaccine, better treatment or something that someone a lot smarter than me comes up, the NFL, NFLPA will not agree to play until it is determined safe by the medical community

 

At the end of the day, its entertainment. In a society that is a wonderful thing, but hardly essential. This is a public health emergency. Football isnt a concern, nor should it 

 

And yes I want a season to happen. I love football more than anything, but we have to be safe first

 

 

Until those game checks don't come....

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2 minutes ago, Phil The Thrill said:


Interesting.... so how does this work with player contracts?  Are they “frozen?”  So if there is no NFL Season in 2020, does that mean Tre White is in his final year when he’s only played 3 seasons etc?  

 

Great question. My guess is if the league does not play a game in a 2020 season, that does NOT count as a contract year. Then again everything in the NFL is tied to the "league year" and we are in the 2020 league year now.

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8 minutes ago, Phil The Thrill said:


Interesting.... so how does this work with player contracts?  Are they “frozen?”  So if there is no NFL Season in 2020, does that mean Tre White is in his final year when he’s only played 3 seasons etc?  

 

I believe the MLB has agreed to match the service time that the player earned in the previous season. In return, owners only have to pay a fraction of the salaries. In essence a win win for both sides. Players get to become free agents as expected and owners don't have to pay out full salaries. If that happens, I find it hard to believe the NFLPA will be cool with putting a "freeze" on players contracts. If the NFL does push for that, I would expect multiple holdouts and contract demands. 

 

https://nypost.com/2020/03/27/mlb-union-reach-deal-on-service-time-other-coronavirus-issues/

Edited by ytownblofan
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