YoloinOhio Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 (edited) 8.5 wins No progression/growth from Allen (very slight completion % increase) step back in TDs and uptick in INTs slight uptick in rushing Yards for Allen, decrease in rushing TDs everyone coming back on offense, same system, add Stefon Diggs... nada. I think he added like 32 yards/game progression bills give up 60 more points on D than last year Edited April 9, 2020 by YoloinOhio 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not at the table Karlos Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 (edited) So we regress everywhere. Some reason I don’t see that happening. Does he do this every year. Would be interesting to see how accurate he is. Edited April 9, 2020 by Not at the table Karlos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 What a waste of time, creating something like this. Good lord. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoolhouserock Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 This looks like it is model-based to me. (Computer-simulated) Would be cool to see what’s under the hood. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBuff423 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 (edited) I don't agree at all with his take on this, but I suspect he's buying into the flawed logic that the schedule is going to dictate Allen's regression / overall team productivity. The schedule is rarely a contributing factor because there are always teams that do much better than anticipated (the Bills last year being one) and teams that do worse or not quite as well. Nobody knows what teams will absolutely be lights-out and which ones will be cupcake until the games are actually played. Furthermore, while I wouldn't expect any person to know who the Bills Draft, his roster is missing Drafted players, which as we know from McBeane's time in Buffalo has so far been crucial to their success. For example, it's hard for me to believe the Bills enter the 2020 NFL season with the current list of RBs they have, or that they don't add a good CB or depth at O-line or even a mid-round WR that can contribute to their Offense / STs. Those incremental additions make large contributions over the course of the season. That's to say nothing about the aforementioned improved Offense with Diggs ALONE. I don't think Allen's progression is automatic, but from what I've read he definitely knows *this* is the season that will have far more to do with his long-term success than what he's done thus far. The 3rd year is usually when the light goes on and stays on and who the QB is, becomes solidified. It is rare they drastically improve beyond the 3rd year starting, but some of the greatest QBs / players, have shown that the 3rd year is when it all clicks and they don't look back. I can be called a homer, that's fine, but I believe this to be true for Josh as well. Continuity on the O-line, improved skill position players, and same Offense for 3rd year. Sign. Me. Up. Go Bills! Edited April 9, 2020 by BigBuff423 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted April 9, 2020 Author Share Posted April 9, 2020 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said: So we regress everywhere. Some reason I don’t see that happening. Does he do this every year. Would be interesting to see how accurate he is. Yes he does do it every year. Trying to find last year’s - here are all teams https://g.espncdn.com/s/ffldraftkit/Clay Projections 2019.pdf Edited April 9, 2020 by YoloinOhio 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giuseppe Tognarelli Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 So we're going to get worse? Okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
auburnbillsbacker Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 30 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said: So we regress everywhere. Some reason I don’t see that happening. Does he do this every year. Would be interesting to see how accurate he is. The Bills will be a better team but the schedule is much more difficult than last year's. I think most of his projections are reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 (edited) People should understand this is basically him replicating the sorts of odds you get in Vegas, meaning that everyone is pushed a bit towards the middle. He almost certainly won't have teams projected 12+ wins or less than 4 wins. A good example of that is he has the Bills defense allowing like 60+ more points than they did last season, but that's also the best in the league. So if you look at the points allowed, it looks like he thinks the defense will be worse this year, but he literally thinks they'll statistically be the best. And I believe the 8.5 wins is enough to win the division based on his projections/is like 4th best in the conference. Also, as I mentioned in the last Mike Clay thread, it's kinda pointless to be looking at this stuff when the roster isn't complete. Like he has Buffalo as one of the worst RB groups in the league right now, but it seems very likely that we will improve on that before the season begins. Edited April 9, 2020 by DCOrange 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 17 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: Yes he does do it every year. Trying to find last year’s - here are all teams https://g.espncdn.com/s/ffldraftkit/Clay Projections 2019.pdf Only off by 3 wins. 4 if you consider the loss resting starters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 So we add Stefon Diggs. Presumably, we get someone under the age of 74 to complement Singletary. Defense will (according to him) give up 3.75 points/game more than last year. And we're going to win two less games? Just think ... someone actually paid this guy to write that crap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramza86 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Tougher schedule. No way we can be worse, but i can see "stats" on the decline. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Otreply Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 (edited) Who is this guy? Bet he does fantasy stuff... Edited April 9, 2020 by Don Otreply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not at the table Karlos Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 (edited) 42 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: Yes he does do it every year. Trying to find last year’s - here are all teams https://g.espncdn.com/s/ffldraftkit/Clay Projections 2019.pdf I looked a little bit for last years and couldn’t find it. Thanks for the link to all the teams! Bills 2019 is in there. Edited April 9, 2020 by Not at the table Karlos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stank_Nasty Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Ed Oliver struggled to find his footing until about midseason last year and STILL managed 5 sacks.... so next he’s gonna get less? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Mike Clay has hated our roster since McDermott and Beane took over. He still hates our roster. Not sure if it's mostly just out of spite or what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beast Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 1 hour ago, auburnbillsbacker said: The Bills will be a better team but the schedule is much more difficult than last year's. I think most of his projections are reasonable. You don't know how tough a schedule is until after the season is played. Why don't people understand this simple concept? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted April 9, 2020 Author Share Posted April 9, 2020 (edited) 47 minutes ago, Ramza86 said: Tougher schedule. No way we can be worse, but i can see "stats" on the decline. I actually think the schedule is only tougher when it comes to travel. If you look at it from a QB standpoint they play 3 of the top QBs all at home - mahomes, Russ, Big Ben. Doesn’t mean they win those games but it’s a good balance for them. Who is the next best QB on the schedule... goff? Tannehill? jimmy G? I personally think they played tougher QBs last year in terms of number. Brady 2x, Dak, Wentz, Lamar Edited April 9, 2020 by YoloinOhio 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
auburnbillsbacker Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, Binghamton Beast said: You don't know how tough a schedule is until after the season is played. Why don't people understand this simple concept? If the NFC West and AFC West are bad divisions let me know. They will be good divisions. The AFC East will be improved. I dont need to see the entire season played to analyze how good a team is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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