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Logic

Cover 1 article: Brandon Beane’s Draft tendencies

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2 hours ago, Logic said:

Great article at the link below.

 

The reasoning makes absolute sense to me. While Beane spent premium capitol on the WR position and acquired a 26-year-old stud, he only put short term band-aids on the CB2 position (Norman, Gaines), the LE position (Addison), and the RT (Williams) and LB (Klein) positions.

 

As such, and given Beane’s penchant for “doubling down” on need positions in FA and the draft, it’s logical to expect early picks to be spent on EDGE, CB, RT, or LB, with a WR and RB only being taken in the later rounds.

 

 

https://www.cover1.net/buffalo-bills-brandon-beane-nfl-draft-tendencies/

 

Since arriving in Buffalo, Brandon Beane has preached his desire to address needs in free agency to allow him the freedom to draft the best player available. Over his two offseasons in Buffalo, Beane has acquired 36 players between the conclusion of the regular season and the NFL Draft, and he’s drafted 16 players. Of these 16 players, only four of them were at a position that Beane did not address via free agency or a trade prior to the draft. Seventy-five percent of the drafted players are at a position that Beane had already acquired a player at earlier in the offseason.....

 

 

...After processing all of the information that’s been laid out above, it seems that Brandon Beane may be looking to address cornerback, right tackle, edge rusher, and/or linebacker in the draft. With the way that Beane has drafted in the past, I would say it’s highly unlikely to see a receiver drafted high, and the chances of a running back being drafted high aren’t favorable. However, it’s important to note that this is all speculation with no strict rule.

 

But what has Beane done at RB?

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18 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Beane and McDermott trading up is all about targeting specific people. Trading up for Dawson Knox for example. Beane used picks 112 and 131 to move up and grab Knox. 112 wound up being Bryce Love and 131 was Wes Martin a backup guard. I'd rather have Knox. And I am sure the Redskins would rather have Knox too as they have a huge need at tight end.  

 

The next tight end taken after Knox was Trevon Wesco and Foster Moreau (who I like) was avalable at 137. I know it is cherry picking, but if you look at what was drafted between picks 96 and 131, it is nothing special besides Maxx Crosby. I would rather have one Dawson Knox over two meh players. Just to add, Maxx Crosby was picked at 106, I would have loved to have him, but again, it would have required a trade up from pick 112, and probably would have cost 131 anyway. So they targeted Knox. Time will tell if it was the right move, but Bryce Love and Wes Martin would have likely had trouble making the team last year. 

 

Our roster is even better than it was last year, and it is going to be very difficult for 7 rookies to crack the roster. So rather than lose draft picks for nothing when you cut them, ala Austin Proehl, use picks to trade up and target guys you are really confident can crack your roster. I think Beane and McDermott move about the board and grab 4-5 guys they have targeted. It did not work with Zay Jones, it looks promising with Knox. The idea of trading picks to get guys you want and have specifically targeted is a great philosophy. Now they might grab the wrong people, but the intent is correct. If this franchise had more guts in the past we would have had Ben Roethlisberger for the last 20 years. 

 

I can easily agree with your observations and it's a great option for Beane to pursue.

I was thinking the same way myself but I did come up with another path that may be worth taking.

 

Instead of using the 5-7 rounders the way you said maybe it's worth using those pick on some players that could make the team this year or next.

I would like to see a punter picked to compete and hopefully displace Corey B.  Another pick could be the future replacement for DiMarco

who is most likely gone next year.  That is of course if they want to keep the FB position.  A developmental backup QB and a Lee Smith/blocking TE

replacement for next year could be considered.

 

With the extra Practice Squad spots these type players could be stashed until needed.  All that being said drafting another Austin Proehl type player 

is definitely not worth it.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

I could see him standing pat at 2 and 3, and then packaging our 4th, 5th, 6th, 6th, and 7th to move back into the 3rd.

 

Get 3 quality picks who actually have a shot at making the team AND even contributing this year. After the 4th, I dont think there will be any talent there that could supplant current starters, or even current veteran depth.

 

Ah, hadn't read all way to end of thread...basically what the poster directly above this post said:

 

But they would upgrade the practice squad assuming different teams didn't pick them up after they got cut.

 

This front office has been great at finding gems in later rounds and developing them. I hear you on the trade up, but they can still improve the team with those later picks, even if they end up on the practice squad.

 

Remember, Beane views the ps as a true place for player development.

Edited by HardyBoy
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28 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I can easily agree with your observations and it's a great option for Beane to pursue.

I was thinking the same way myself but I did come up with another path that may be worth taking.

 

Instead of using the 5-7 rounders the way you said maybe it's worth using those pick on some players that could make the team this year or next.

I would like to see a punter picked to compete and hopefully displace Corey B.  Another pick could be the future replacement for DiMarco

who is most likely gone next year.  That is of course if they want to keep the FB position.  A developmental backup QB and a Lee Smith/blocking TE

replacement for next year could be considered.

 

With the extra Practice Squad spots these type players could be stashed until needed.  All that being said drafting another Austin Proehl type player 

is definitely not worth it.

 

6 minutes ago, HardyBoy said:

 

Ah, hadn't read all way to end of thread...basically what the poster directly above this post said:

 

But they would upgrade the practice squad assuming different teams didn't pick them up after they got cut.

 

This front office has been great at finding gems in later rounds and developing them. I hear you on the trade up, but they can still improve the team with those later picks, even if they end up on the practice squad.

 

Remember, Beane views the ps as a true place for player development.

 

Which players have come off the Practice Squad in the last 4-5 years and have contributed to the team?

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4 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

Which players have come off the Practice Squad in the last 4-5 years and have contributed to the team?

 

Duke Williams and Bates come to mind last year.

My point is with the new rules (2 extra PS players can be used to go from 53 to 55 players and the extra PS squad size it's quite

apparent that it will become more important going forward.  Teams use their PS to replace injured players all the time.

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1 hour ago, Lurker said:

As others have said, the first two years were about building a core roster.  This year may be more about fine tuning that roster as the core is largely in place.   

 

Another tendancy Beane has, IMO, is to look to the future when making his draft picks, focusing on guys who can step in in a year or two when current starters are no longer on the roster or have lost a step.    That's why Edge, CB and WR are still in play, in addition to RB, big nickle and O-line...

Yes, remember the glory years when you knew a rookie wasn't going to start, instead they were stockpiling into thee future. This feels like that. Rooks are going to have to be impressive to start on this roster, or at the least, matriculate in slowly. Love that.

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Beane's tendencies are easy to figure out. 

He acquires extra picks during the season and off-season.  he's been masterful at this.  In general, he then trades up for positions of need - QB, MLB, TE, OT, RB burning many of the picks he acquired.    

He stood pat and allowed Oliver to fall to him.  He should have moved up for Josh Allen but DT was a bigger need than DE in last years draft as they already had Hughes, Lawwon, and Murphy under contract.  

If he hits on Allen none of this matter.  If Allen regresses and Edmunds doesn't get any better then the heat will be on him to find a QB during this window of opportunity. 

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Beane has either been very lucky that the best player available has been a player of need (early) or like any sensible GM he tries to take need into account when drafting. 

 

2017 - Drafts Tre White after losing Gilmore, Dawkins was drafted when RT was a need and Glenn was banged up at LT and Zay was drafted when Robert Woods left. 

2018- Team desperately needs a QB and they get Allen and the team needed a MLB after P.Brown walked and they drafted Edumonds.

2019- Drafts Ed Oliver after Kyle Williams retires and there weren't many proven options at DT on the roster and Cody Ford also filled a need at RT (And Knox and Singletary were also need picks in round 3.)

 

I think looking at what positions McBeane has drafted there is no sign that he has taken BPA all the time or even most of the time. He takes need into account but will not reach either. 

5 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Beane's tendencies are easy to figure out. 

He acquires extra picks during the season and off-season.  he's been masterful at this.  In general, he then trades up for positions of need - QB, MLB, TE, OT, RB burning many of the picks he acquired.    

He stood pat and allowed Oliver to fall to him.  He should have moved up for Josh Allen but DT was a bigger need than DE in last years draft as they already had Hughes, Lawwon, and Murphy under contract.  

If he hits on Allen none of this matter.  If Allen regresses and Edmunds doesn't get any better then the heat will be on him to find a QB during this window of opportunity. 

 

I think they made the right choice not trading up for the other Josh Allen and staying at pick 9 and getting Ed Oliver. I think to trade up to pick 6 or 5 to get ahead of Jacksonville would have been costly (At least the Bills 3rd round pick and 5th round pick) and as much as I like DE Josh Allen I think Oliver might be just as good at an equally premium position. 

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I think it is hard to predict what the Bills will do based on the past 2 years in the draft.  They had a plan which was to fortify the defense first in their rebuild and to get a QB prospect that they like.  They have done that and I would expect that they will continue now building the offense - that doesn't mean that they won't take any defensive players this year - I still think that is a strong possibility this year.

 

 

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I don't buy the basic premise of the article:  that the moves in free agency help you predict the positions where Beane is likely to draft.  

 

I think the fact that Beane drafts into the positions where he just signed free agents, like Cody Ford after signing an entire offensive line, including reserves shows only that once Beane has filled his needs in free agency, he's free to go BPA.   It's true that Beane may not have gotten any long-term solutions in free agency, but he got competent guys McDermott could work with.  That meant Beane could take the BPA, who happened to be Ford.   Just like Singletary happened to be the BPA in the next round.  

 

In other words, filling holes in free agency does just that it fills holes.  Filling holes frees the GM from "needing" to go a certain way in a certain round.  You get the BPA, and you keep doing that and you have a lot of really talented football players.   If you have talent everywhere else and journeyman free agents plugging holes at one position group, so be it, you play with that group. 

 

That's exactly what we saw with the receiver group last season.  Clear holes, filled in free agency.   They didn't draft a receiver, even though they probably knew they hadn't gotten as good as they would like at receiver.   They were content to play with the guys they got.    This season, they still saw a hole, and free agency is for filling holes.   They traded instead of going free agent, but it's the same thing.   They filled the hole.  They don't have at receiver this season, but it doesn't mean they won't take a receiver in the second round.   If a receiver is BPA, they're taking him.  If a receiver is more or less tied at the top of the board with a guy at a position of need, they'll break the tie in favor of need.  

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

I'll be somewhat annoyed if this team passes on a dynamic playmaker at RB or WR for a CB at 54. 

 

 

If one they love is there, or even better falls to them ?
Beane won't say no.
I appreciate Cover 1 no end , just awesome.

 But tough to call any trends from Beanes Boys and Girls club.

Method should change after this year. A mentioned above , Bills are almost to the point of fine tuning , but not yet. The offense needs to get settled in this year, next year the tweaks.
Defense is much closer to being a product and not a project.

But Master Beane should remains flexible in mind and spirit using the draft.

FA he always has focus so he can free up his draft liberties, Lke trade up or down. Package players and picks!   or not : ) 
 

 so much fun this has been so far

 Go Bills
 

Edited by 3rdand12
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Posted (edited)

 

 

5 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

Something I've noticed is how this team has been built, to this point at least, via UFA.  I remember years ago people here saying you can't build that way when Buffalo was known for not spending big.  McBeane seem to have turned that mindset on its head. 

 

The OL is largely UFA, as are 2 of their top 3 WR's.  Not to mention, the defense is loaded with guys acquired via UFA/SFA: Star, Addison, Murphy, Jefferson, Butler, Klein, Hyde, Poyer, Norman, E. Gaines. And this doesn't include all the guys who aren't here anymore. 

 

Interesting to see how Buffalo transitions personnel-wise from a team that replaces their UFAs who worked fairly well in the regime's first years to a team that drafts most of their starters. 

 

5 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

True, but I'd say they are also building through the draft. They simply havent had enough picks to build a team with yet.

 

White, Dawkins, Harry, Milano, Allen, Edmunds, T.Johnson, Oliver, Ford, Singletary... those are all core players. OL, DL, QB...

 

I'd also point out that a handful of UFAs they brought in were Beane draft picks, just through a different team. Addison, Star, Butler, Klein...

 

The good news is they are hitting pretty well on Draft Picks. At least 3 or 4 per draft, which is above average drafting in the NFL.

I believe you’re both right to a point.

 

They’ve built parts of the roster through free agency. Their roster was so bad they needed to. But most of the guys they’ve signed through free agency have been starters, but not “core” players. The only one I would argue they’ve really done that with was the Morse signing. But most of the guys they’ve added arrived as either quality backups to slightly above average level starters. 
 

As for the draft, I believe they look for 2 key things. Days 1 & 2 they look for guys who will be “Core” players at prime positions for their team.
2017: Cornerback is arguably the 2nd or 3rd most valuable position in the game. Enter Tre White. Left Tackle, 2nd round Dion Dawkins. 

2018: Franchise QB, and while MLB might not be seen as an elite position league wide, I think they value having a guy they believe is their QB on defense in Edmunds. 
2019: Round 1, penetrating interior defensive lineman, a position that seems to have ever increasingly value around the league. Round 2, many will argue where he should play, but they drafted what they believe is another offensive tackle. 
2020 1st Round pick = Elite playmaking receiver. 

After those picks for core players at key positions in rounds 1 & 2, they filled in the rest of the roster at more supplemental positions of need to add depth where they could depending on the talent that fell to, or near those picks. 
 

There’s also the math of the matter as well... Typically around the league, if you’re getting 3 starters out of each draft class, you’re doing well. So if you do that well every year, it’d take about 8years if good drafting to fill a team with a majority of drafted players, and that would include re-signing all of them as well.

 

At the end I would say they’ve used free agency to add depth throughout the roster, in particular Offensive and Defensive lines, Wide Receiver, tight end, safety of course. 
 

But at the end of the day they’ve used the draft to add the core pieces to each level of their team. On offense, Allen, Dawkins/Ford, and if you consider Diggs the use of their first round pick, I believe they view him as a core piece moving forward. 
 

On defense they have a 1st round pick, who is a core piece at each level in Oliver, Edmunds and then Tre White.

 

I believe their plan is to make sure they get those positions filled, re-signed so they have long term leaders, both in the field and off, and then fill a lot of spaces with more depth free agents and draft picks as the years continue and the cap situation gets tighter.

Edited by Dkollidas
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6 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

Something I've noticed is how this team has been built, to this point at least, via UFA.  I remember years ago people here saying you can't build that way when Buffalo was known for not spending big.  McBeane seem to have turned that mindset on its head. 

 

The OL is largely UFA, as are 2 of their top 3 WR's.  Not to mention, the defense is loaded with guys acquired via UFA/SFA: Star, Addison, Murphy, Jefferson, Butler, Klein, Hyde, Poyer, Norman, E. Gaines. And this doesn't include all the guys who aren't here anymore. 

 

Interesting to see how Buffalo transitions personnel-wise from a team that replaces their UFAs who worked fairly well in the regime's first years to a team that drafts most of their starters. 

I think the premise has truth, though. Going for the high prices guys is not a way to build in free agency. Beane has avoided the high prices free agents besides Morse. He has found gems to contribute.

 

But you have to admit that the core players who the team has been built around were draft picks. Allen, Edmunds, and White. Maybe Singletary and Oliver will be two of those key core players too. Hyde, Poyer, and now Diggs can be seen as key players as well and they were free agents, but I think those first three are the irreplaceable core of the team.

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7 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

Which players have come off the Practice Squad in the last 4-5 years and have contributed to the team?

 

Wrong question...what 5th, 6th, 7th round picks and ufas that this regime has drafted are legit nfl players? A good number and they're really good at finding value there.

 

I totally hear what you're saying, they're at a point where going for one premium is better than extra above avereage, but I think sustained success comes from having the middle of the roster being cheap quality depth. Building your depth through the draft by getting players who either are highly interchangeable within the various aspects of your overall scheme or have a skill that allows them to be used very specifically within a specific piece of that scheme that allows them to be almost elite because they are great at the things you are needing them to do.

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11 hours ago, NewEra said:

This.

 

i agree that we will likely select a Corner or the trenches with our 2nd rd pick

I sure as hell hope we don't draft a Corner with our 2nd pick.  We have at least 5 guys on the roster right now who can start at Corner.  White, Wallace, Norman, Gaines and Johnson.  So why do we want another one with our top pick.  Trenches possibly.  But we still need offensive  playmakers.  So I have got to believe that a WR, RB or TE needs to be our top pick.  And yes I said TE.  Smith is garbage.  Kroft has to prove he can stay on the field.   Knox and Sweeney have potential but are probably not game changers like a Kittle or a Kelce.   3 solid TE's are needed in today's NFL.  And we definitely could use anther stud at WR and RB.  Our D is loaded.  Need to load up on offense.  Not going to be a Super Bowl contender otherwise.  

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6 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

I sure as hell hope we don't draft a Corner with our 2nd pick.  We have at least 5 guys on the roster right now who can start at Corner.  White, Wallace, Norman, Gaines and Johnson.  So why do we want another one with our top pick.  Trenches possibly.  But we still need offensive  playmakers.  So I have got to believe that a WR, RB or TE needs to be our top pick.  And yes I said TE.  Smith is garbage.  Kroft has to prove he can stay on the field.   Knox and Sweeney have potential but are probably not game changers like a Kittle or a Kelce.   3 solid TE's are needed in today's NFL.  And we definitely could use anther stud at WR and RB.  Our D is loaded.  Need to load up on offense.  Not going to be a Super Bowl contender otherwise.  

I’m all about adding another tight end.  As far as I’m concerned, we have one promising prospect and a prospect.  The rest are close to useless.  It’s a bad TE class imo.  Lots of marginal prospects.

 

regarding corner, there are a few solid options that are projected around where we pick.  After next season, we only have tre as a boundary corner.  If we hit on a good corner in rd 2, it’ll offset Tre’s 19 mill a year contract

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14 hours ago, DCOrange said:

Makes sense to me, though playing devil's advocate:

  1. It's been two drafts. Doesn't necessarily mean it's a trend more than it is a coincidence.
  2. I think it could be reasonably argued that the roster is in a different place now than it was the previous two years and therefore, our strategy may be different now.
  3. I don't think RB and safety can be written off just because we haven't addressed them yet (we also could theoretically still address them before the draft though I highly doubt we'd sign a safety).
  4. Given the strength of the WR class, there's a decent chance the BPA in the 2nd or 3rd round is a WR, in which case I don't think it can be written off either.

Overall though, I do tend to think our first pick will be in the secondary or trenches, and that fits this article's conclusion.

We’re all speculating here, but if WR is BPA at Pick 22, I think it likely he’ll look to trade down -even if it’s only for additional ‘21 picks. THATs a Beane tactic that’s trending.

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14 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Duke Williams and Bates come to mind last year.

My point is with the new rules (2 extra PS players can be used to go from 53 to 55 players and the extra PS squad size it's quite

apparent that it will become more important going forward.  Teams use their PS to replace injured players all the time.

That doesn't work. Those two were bit players for one or two games.

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Posted (edited)

 

Quote

 

So it’s Dallas Cowboys Mock Draft 9.0, I wanted to explore the idea of taking the “best player available.” You’ve heard the philosophy. Practically every NFL team says they adhere to it. (Fish loves to bahhhhh 'B.A.A.'') And, yet, on draft day, just about every team takes at least one player that compels its fans to say, “What. The. Heck?”

If the idea is to take the best player available, then the NFL Draft is easy for every team. Create your draft board, wait until your pick comes up and just take the top player on the board. Easy peasy. Taking the best available player implies that the position they play really doesn’t matter.

But that isn’t how it works. As our Mike Fisher has explained before, the idea of best available player regardless of position is a bit flawed. It doesn’t take into account a team’s needs, and those needs matter, not only in the short term but in the long term. Mike moves beyond "Best Available Athlete'' and calls the real process teams use as “Best Available Player Within Reason.” In other words, if you have Peyton Manning in his prime, then why are you taking a quarterback in the first round? That doesn’t make much sense, right?

 

What the Bills have done the last 3 years is to set themselves to improve the roster the most.

I think the sequence goes something like this:

 

1.  Examine the roster and see where we need improvement. Where you want to be is having superior core players, no glaring weaknesses and some cheap develop players filling up some of the extra roster spots.

 

 2. Look at the upcoming draft and rank the players by their quality. "Big Board"

 

3.  Look at what the other teams are likely to draft when. This gives you a modified Big Board which has who will  be available at the Bills picks.  They also have to consider some attributes of the players by how they might fit into the Bill's locker room character and offense/defense system.  T A "process guy" gets ranked different than a diva.  A zone blocker gets rated different than a power blocker.

 

4.  Get this idea who and what might be available in the draft and take another look at your roster and it's needs. Go into free agency and improve the positions, that you may not improve in the draft. 

 

5.  You now are in a good place to go into the draft.  You can move draft the "BPA" at a position of need.  You might want to jump ahead 5-10 slots to get this guy, if you think somebody else is going to pick him ahead of you. (the Bills have done this twice in the early rounds in EACH the last 3 drafts).  Sometimes you might be able to move back a couple of spots and still get your guy- but that is risky.

 

6. The Bills have used the draft to get superior core players.  Often a player is characterized as having a value, floor and ceiling.  I think the Bills have used the drafted players with a greater emphasis on a high ceiling than value (plug & play early value) or high floor". They also seem to want superior athletes, who will have more upside.   A real good, try-hard guy, who is making every last bit of his abilities to rank high is NOT taken over a guy who is a better athlete but raw and underdeveloped. Shooting for all-pro potential. Get them cheap on a rookie contract.  You will need superior players to beat good teams in the playoffs.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/cowboys/news/cowboys-mock-draft-best-available-player-doesnt-work-nfl-jerry-jeudy

Edited by maryland-bills-fan

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