If the Bills had had Diggs in 2019

[Shaw66]

I was wondering this morning what Josh Allen's season would have looked like if the Bills had had Stefon Diggs in 2019.

 

It's not perfect, but what I did was add Diggs's receiving numbers to the Bills' totals, and subtract McKenzie's numbers and Duke's numbers, because they were the two guys who were the primary third receiver.   The numbers are interesting.  

 

Receptions go up 24.

 

Attempts go up 36.

 

Yards go up over 700!

 

Touchdowns go up 4.   

 

Interceptions go up 1.  

 

Allen's passer rating goes up to 91.0, 17th in the league.

 

Now, I know there are all sorts of reasons why it might not have played out that way, but at least it's some measure of the difference Diggs could make.   Browns and Beasley's targets might go down.  On the other hand, completion percentage probably goes up, because Allen's receivers would have been open more often.   And even though their targets might go down, their yards per catch probably go up.   There's no way to undrstand fully the impact of Diggs being on the field.   Substituting the data at least gives us some kind of picture.

 

The biggest difference is yards.   700 yards a season is over 40 yards a game.  Yards per attempt go up from 6.7 to 7.6.   

 

That kind of improvement would have made the Bills a much more potent offense.   

[HappyDays]

It's hard to predict how the numbers for the season would have changed, but I can say with near certainty that we would have won the playoff game. Other than Allen no one on offense was able to create plays out of nothing and across the board too many routine plays were missed. Diggs doesn't miss the routine plays AND he creates plays out of nothing. A special player like that tips the needle for us in a close game.

[Shaw66]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

It's hard to predict how the numbers for the season would have changed, but I can say with near certainty that we would have won the playoff game. Other than Allen no one on offense was able to create plays out of nothing and across the board too many routine plays were missed. Diggs doesn't miss the routine plays AND he creates plays out of nothing. A special player like that tips the needle for us in a close game.

Good point.   He's a playmaker.   Singletary is good, but not a full-fledged playmaker quite yet.   

[Putin]

6 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Good point.   He's a playmaker.   Singletary is good, but not a full-fledged playmaker quite yet.   

I think Singletary will be a BEAST this year , having Diggs on the outside will create so much more space for Singletary!!!

 

[Don Otreply]

Yup, would have been great had it happened, the Bills would have had a much more dynamic offense, and yes we win that playoff game. It will be a sight to watch this upcoming season unfold. 
 

Go Bills!!!

[Adam]

I'd like to guess that the increases in the offense would also help our defense put pressure on the other team's offense, which would generate turnovers and further fuel the offense

[machine gun kelly]

Shaw, I know it's optimistic, but just too many variables.  I agree it should have been better, but how much we'll never know just like we don't know how much this season will be better.  I know we all hope a ton.  Thanks for sharing.

[Foxx]

ah yes, off-season, quarantine thread topics...

[Shaw66]

10 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

Shaw, I know it's optimistic, but just too many variables.  I agree it should have been better, but how much we'll never know just like we don't know how much this season will be better.  I know we all hope a ton.  Thanks for sharing.

Of course you're right.   You can't predict how a team would have performed with a different player.    But I think the numbers do give a decent idea of just how much better the Bills could be with Diggs.   That improvement I listed isn't mind-bending; it's just a nice increase over what they actually did produce.  Allen's passer rating still is just middle of the pack. 

 

Actually, I think the numbers give a good measure of how much Allen has to improve.    The numbers suggest that Allen playing in well-staffed NFL offenses still needs to improve significantly.   Something we all know already.  

[Blank Stare]

As you’ve said, tough to predict with all the different variables, but interesting thread. I just hope they don’t think they are done improving the offense. I see mock drafts with Chinn and Dugger and I’m scratching my head. They could be amazing, but outside of stopping the run sometimes defense hasn’t been much of a problem with McD. The same can’t be said for our offenses. Have to keep stacking talent there. About the only way defense makes sense to me with that top pick is edge rusher. Need more youth there. I don’t need some small school third or fourth safety with our top pick to come in and play big/buffalo nickel. That’s a specialized luxury to me that can be addressed next year in the draft. 

Edited April 5, 2020 by TheProcess

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, TheProcess said:

As you’ve said, tough to predict with all the different variables, but interesting thread. I just hope they don’t think they are done improving the offense. I keep seeing all these mock drafts with Chinn and Dugger and I’m scratching my head. They could be amazing, but outside of stopping the run sometimes defense hasn’t been much of a problem with McD. The same can’t be said for our offenses. Have to keep stacking talent there. About the only way defense makes sense to me with that top pick is edge rusher. Need more youth there. I don’t need some small school third or fourth safety with our top pick to come in and play big/buffalo nickel. That’s a specialized luxury to me that can be addressed next year in the draft. 

You know, Beane says he's strictly BPA at the top of the draft.   And all the time the team was weak, I could see that.   BPA.  Just add talent, meet you needs in the later rounds. 

 

But now It sure is difficult not to look at needs.   Edge rusher, absolutely, love to have a stud there, but there's no quick relief in sight there.  

 

But I won't be surprised, ever, if they take take a defensive back earlier than most of us think.   Their philosophy is that they MUST have a strong back 5, including the nickel back, and they have to assume that attrition, retirement, injury will hit soon enough. 

 

They also MUST have a running back.   

 

And they'd love to have an offensive lineman who could challenge to start.  

 

I have to believe Beane's strategy will be driven by need.   

[TroutDog]

I appreciate this exercise, Shaw. It will be very interesting to see how it does play out. Personally, I believe with it being Josh’s third year his processing will also improve and that will make our O take a significant leap. Couple that with another offseason of working on the long ball and we should have some fun this year! ? 
 

Last year is in the books but, again, I appreciate this. 

[twist_to_open]

1 hour ago, Foxx said:

ah yes, off-season, quarantine thread topics...

I'm bored and like the post, thanks Shaw for putting the time in on your theory!

[Foxx]

14 minutes ago, twist_to_open said:

I'm bored and like the post, thanks Shaw for putting the time in on your theory!

i'm just not and never have been a fan of the, shoulda/woulda/coulda thing. one thing is certain, the hypothesis is wrong. 

 

cheers

 

have fun.

[without a drought]

I figured out the same thing except I had Diggs taking away targets from Beasley and Brown, which led to fewer catches, yards and TD's for both of them.

[Shaw66]

16 minutes ago, without a drought said:

I figured out the same thing except I had Diggs taking away targets from Beasley and Brown, which led to fewer catches, yards and TD's for both of them.

It's all just fantasy, but if you're going to take receptions from Brown and Beasley, you have to give them the receptions they will take from McKenzie and Duke.   Probably gets you to about the same place;   

[Mat68]

Against good defenses, they blitzed Allen and manned up the wr.  I think Diggs greatly effects the Baltimore game, Ne games, and playoff game in Houston.  Down the stretch in those games Allen didnt have anyone really win their matchup.  It was Allen running around throwing lasers.  Some were caught some were not.

[GoBills808]

6 hours ago, HappyDays said:

It's hard to predict how the numbers for the season would have changed, but I can say with near certainty that we would have won the playoff game. Other than Allen no one on offense was able to create plays out of nothing and across the board too many routine plays were missed. Diggs doesn't miss the routine plays AND he creates plays out of nothing. A special player like that tips the needle for us in a close game.

Might not have been playing on wildcard weekend, I can point to at least two games (Ravens and first Pats) too of my head that were lost pretty much singularly on receivers not being able to separate and come down with a contested catch.

[Scott7975]

6 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I was wondering this morning what Josh Allen's season would have looked like if the Bills had had Stefon Diggs in 2019.

 

It's not perfect, but what I did was add Diggs's receiving numbers to the Bills' totals, and subtract McKenzie's numbers and Duke's numbers, because they were the two guys who were the primary third receiver.   The numbers are interesting.  

 

Receptions go up 24.

 

Attempts go up 36.

 

Yards go up over 700!

 

Touchdowns go up 4.   

 

Interceptions go up 1.  

 

Allen's passer rating goes up to 91.0, 17th in the league.

 

Now, I know there are all sorts of reasons why it might not have played out that way, but at least it's some measure of the difference Diggs could make.   Browns and Beasley's targets might go down.  On the other hand, completion percentage probably goes up, because Allen's receivers would have been open more often.   And even though their targets might go down, their yards per catch probably go up.   There's no way to undrstand fully the impact of Diggs being on the field.   Substituting the data at least gives us some kind of picture.

 

The biggest difference is yards.   700 yards a season is over 40 yards a game.  Yards per attempt go up from 6.7 to 7.6.   

 

That kind of improvement would have made the Bills a much more potent offense.   

 

This is all speculation but I like this thread anyways.  The speculation that I will do is... we win at least one more regular season game and we beat the Texans in the playoffs.  I really feel that.  Allen has to improve too but a top receiver can make a difference over the course and Diggs would have made a difference IMO.  Not only would it be easier on Brown and Beasley, but  throwing to Diggs is better than McKenzie, Foster, Duke (and I like the Duke,) etc.

 

EDIT: As pointed out right above me... I didn't even think we probably wouldn't have even played the Texans.

Edited April 5, 2020 by Scott7975

[GG]

And a tying TD vs Baltimore and at least one more TD vs Texans.