This is the best WR class of our generation

[FireChans]

32 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

If Jefferson ends up in NO, I think he'll do well.  Seattle might be interesting too - lockett metcalf and jefferson.  Maybe GB.

 

Somewhere where he's not expected to be #1, and can play in the slot, move around etc. 

 

He probably slips - but deep ball tracking and actually catching the ball on deep routes is more important than running really fast.  Same with Getting off the line in press, as well as running more of a route tree.  I think a super fast 40 would have got him picked higher, and thus more money.  But it doesn't really change who he is as a player. 

Oh I agree entirely. If he posted a 4.34, I think some team would talk thenselves in to him. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, FireChans said:

Oh I agree entirely. If he posted a 4.34, I think some team would talk thenselves in to him. 

 

Still think hes gone by 54 though.  

[OldTimer1960]

I wouldn't over-prioritize WR based on the argument (alone) that this is a "historically deep" class.  There *might* be some value available at the position when Bills picks come up, but just because there are more than usual 2nd and 3rd round rated prospects doesn't mean that you have to grab one.  Now, if someone they had graded a full round or more higher than the round that they are in, that would be value and could entice them, but if say it is Bills pick in late 3rd and there are a few WRs that they had graded as maybe earlier 3rd round prospects - that wouldn't necessarily make them automatic picks - depends on who is available at other positions.

[Rc2catch]

8 hours ago, BillsFan692 said:

I mean you say that but allen threw quite a bit last season, at times and through stretches almost head scratchingly so to the point of threads being created to talk about why Daboll didnt just run more singletary

For the season I think he was bottom 10 in attempts or close to it. And I think we were top 10 in rush attempts. 
I can’t see the philosophy changing much unless Allen takes a big step forward and shows the ability to dominate and takeover games as a passer. 
Situational football for sure there was a lot of head scratcher calls where we ran in situations that screamed for pass and vice versa. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

4 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

If the WR we get is the 10-12th off the board.  Who would you want it to be?  Do you think the 12th one off the board has all-pro potential?

Heh?  There are exceptions but I would guess 14%.  A good WR class but #54 in the round.  There is more information that would be nice. How many players picked at each position for example.

10 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

He is.  He was the 2nd rated WR prospect by scout.com coming out of high school.  He turned down Ohio State, Florida, and USC to stay close to home in Maryland.  That was a mistake and a couple of injuries as well as declaring for the draft early caused him to split through the cracks.  He's absolutely as talented as most of these top prospects.

He also has a near ZERO bust factor.   Rookies are young men, who often get weird as they grow or have been coached on how to act to scouts in college.

 

If this is such a great WR year, we certainly can wait until the 3rd and 4th round to get a backup, development player for the future.

Edited April 9, 2020 by maryland-bills-fan

[Doc Brown]

9 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

He also has a near ZERO bust factor.   Rookies are young men, who often get weird as they grow or have been coached on how to act to scouts in college.

 

If this is such a great WR year, we certainly can wait until the 3rd and 4th round to get a backup, development player for the future.

Agreed.  It's like investing in Microsoft instead of a promising IPO stock.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

9 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Heh?  There are exceptions but I would guess 14%.  A good WR class but #54 in the round.  There is more information that would be nice. How many players picked at each position for example.

 

What do you have as the WR rankings?  Like who would you like to see at 54?

[maryland-bills-fan]

2 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

What do you have as the WR rankings?  Like who would you like to see at 54?

 

 

Let me explain.   I don't see player "rankngs" within a position and especially between positions as an absolute system.   There is a range for each player and the ranges overlap.  There is not a "this guy is a 86.2 , whereas this other guy is a 87.4" real system going on.  How do you compare the "12th"  ? tight end to the 15th ? OLB?  .  How do you compare a WR who is a good route runner who gets seperation with a guy who is slower but can catch contested balls?.   I think in reality, they may rank the players with a single number but actually think in terms of a spread.  For example,  in the following diagram a   "x" - means= okay to draft here and a "----"  probably not and a "===="    means undervalued by now.

,

             -----------A---------------B----------E--------C-------------D---------

player1 ---------------------------------xxxxxxXxxxxxx====================

player2  -----------------xxxxxxXxxxxxxxx============================

player3-----------------------------------------xxxxxxXxxxxxx================

player4 --------xxxxXxxxxx======================================

 

Based on this, you would take player 4 at draft pick position A,   at B player2 would the choice (player1 being gone)  and  at C player 1 or player 3 would be your choice (player 2 and player4 being gone) of a pick.   If your turn was at D you could take any one of them

 

Now there is also the problem of what your needs are.  If your draft pick is at B and player4 is a 3-4 defensive end AND you play a 4-3, the guy is probably useless to you.  Do you draft him ("best value") and hope to retrain him and change his body to play OLB or 4-3 DE?  No, you might trade down to a team at B and pick up a draft pick and HOPE that nobody drafting at C moves up to take him before pick B comes up. If there is no trade partner, then you pass on player4 and go for player B.  (you could call that "need")

 

There is also another  matter of need. If you are at C and players 1,2,3 are available. Player2 is a center and you have a good veteran center with a big contract. I say don’t draft the center. …. If player1 is a wide receiver and you have 3 good wide receivers and you realize that the rookie is not going to get ahead of them for 3 years (and has a 50:50 chance of never starting), there is not a lot of value for your team there. Certainly a known veteran for backup can also sit on the bench. .. Lets say that player3 is a running back, who is as good or better than your starter and can do some things that the present starter hasn’t done will. You have no proven backup except a guy who did not even dress for 10 games. I say draft FOR NEED and take player3 rather than player 2.

 

The purpose of the draft is to get players to win football games, not to “win”a variety show.

 

Now what I have seen Beane et.al. do over the past 3 years is to move up in the draft. The Bills are sitting at “D” and players 2 and 4 are at positions that we can greatly upgrade. He takes some lower round picks and moves up to get a serious upgrade at a position. It might be that the draft is going on and is at position E AND player4 hasn’t been picked yet. Okay, that is another reason for a trade up I and you grab the player that you though had dropped so far that you really improved the team a lot. Maybe you didn't really need him right now, but the value is too much to pass up.  (Ford?)

 

As to which WR I would take at #54- the answer is none. Nobody who should be in the first round is going to get to #54. We are set for now at WR and if this is such a special year, well then we can get a gem in the 3^rd round.