5th year option on Allen or bid on Watson in FA in 22

[Doc]

Watson will definitely miss Hopkins.  He was far and away their best receiver.  Neither Fuller nor Stills is a #1 WR and Fuller can't stay healthy.  And they have no 1st rounder and their 2-2nd rounders only get them to the 21st pick.

 

BOB will be fired mid-season.

[Hampton Josh fan]

8 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I agree up to this point Watson has been better than Josh but I think in the next 10 years Josh will be the better QB due to be a better athlete and having better coaching, not to mention a better team around him. I doubt he catches Mahomes or Wilson but I would not be surprised if he is  right behind them.

Good take. Wilson and Mahomes are the gold standard. 

[Hampton Josh fan]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No I think the Texans will have a worse record. But actually my reason for that is their defense not their offense. Their secondary is among the worst in the NFL, they have lost two of their best front 7 players in consecutive offseasons (Reader and Clowney) and JJ Watt great as he has been is 31 and has played more than 8 games once in 4 seasons. Last year they were 19th in points against and bottom 5 in yards. Their defensive personnel as of today is worse than it was last year, hard to see that getting better. I don't deny the greatness of DeAndre Hopkins but his production was down last year and they still have some decent receivers. And I just think Watson is really good. I don't think he was made good by Hopkins. I think he is good. The kid has some special in him. The play the put the dagger in the Bills in the playoffs was a play to Taiwan Jones (once a Bill, then a Texan, now a Bill again) a special teamer who barely plays on offense. It was a play made by Watson. He isn't a guy who can only produce with the elite. I think the Texans finish somewhere around .500 and move on from Bill O'Brien after this season. But I don't think their inferior win-loss record will be attributable to any discernible decline in Watson's play.

 

As for rational fans wanting to dump Allen..... I am a rational fan. I don't want to dump Allen. All I did was answer the question posed by the OP honestly. As usual when that is anything other than glowing about Josh what comes back is a torrent of accusations of being a hater, or wanting to dump him or the quite frankly ludicrous assertion that if I think that I should wager money on Allen under producing. It is possible to be a Bills fan, to like where Josh is and to still think there are other guys you would take ahead of him. I'm sorry if that upsets you.

Your response is well taken and reasonable. My problem, as a JA fan, is more with a thread that is disrespectful to a young developing QB, who is making progress and shouldn't have to see people in a great fan base ,questioning his viability going forward. This guy takes responsibility for every loss and will leave his body on the field to get this team a win. You can see his teammates respect and he loves being in Buffalo. No disrespect meant towards Watson, but JA should be given a season with good receivers, especially a legit #1, before reaching for Watson. JA has been as good or better than the other QBs drafted before him in his draft. 

[Billl]

1 hour ago, Hampton Josh fan said:

Don't want to get into a back and forth on this hypothetical thread, but what criteria would you use to give a max ,free agent QB contract to Watson as opposed to extending a winning young QB who loves being a Bill.

Because Watson has been categorically better at everything, and they’re about the same age.  It’s not a swipe at Allen to say that Watson is an elite young QB.  Everyone hopes that Allen can someday have a season with 4,000 yards passing, 68% completions with 26 TDs and 10 INTs while still putting up the same numbers rushing.  Watson has been that each of the past 2 seasons.  If he takes another step forward, you’re looking at 30+ TDs and 4500 yards passing.

 

Watson is probably the second player taken if you were to have an expansion draft involving every player in the NFL.

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, Billl said:

Because Watson has been categorically better at everything, and they’re about the same age.  It’s not a swipe at Allen to say that Watson is an elite young QB.  Everyone hopes that Allen can someday have a season with 4,000 yards passing, 68% completions with 26 TDs and 10 INTs while still putting up the same numbers rushing.  Watson has been that each of the past 2 seasons.  If he takes another step forward, you’re looking at 30+ TDs and 4500 yards passing.

 

Watson is probably the second player taken if you were to have an expansion draft involving every player in the NFL.

 

Watson is 8 months older and has been in the league an extra year.  Not really the "same age."  And their situations on offense have been different.  Until now.  I'm curious to see Watson without Hopkins, and likewise, seeing Josh with Diggs added.

[NoSaint]

22 minutes ago, Hampton Josh fan said:

Your response is well taken and reasonable. My problem, as a JA fan, is more with a thread that is disrespectful to a young developing QB, who is making progress and shouldn't have to see people in a great fan base ,questioning his viability going forward. This guy takes responsibility for every loss and will leave his body on the field to get this team a win. You can see his teammates respect and he loves being in Buffalo. No disrespect meant towards Watson, but JA should be given a season with good receivers, especially a legit #1, before reaching for Watson. JA has been as good or better than the other QBs drafted before him in his draft. 

Jesus... it’s disrespectful and he shouldn’t have to see people question his future?!?

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

 

Watson is 8 months older and has been in the league an extra year.  Not really the "same age."  And their situations on offense have been different.  Until now.  I'm curious to see Watson without Hopkins, and likewise, seeing Josh with Diggs added.

 

Can we just have a guarantee from folk that if Watson performs similarly again to his last two seasons they will accept that he is just good rather than trying to make excuses as to why he is good?

[Hampton Josh fan]

2 minutes ago, Billl said:

Because Watson has been categorically better at everything, and they’re about the same age.  It’s not a swipe at Allen to say that Watson is an elite young QB.  Everyone hopes that Allen can someday have a season with 4,000 yards passing, 68% completions with 26 TDs and 10 INTs while still putting up the same numbers rushing.  Watson has been that each of the past 2 seasons.  If he takes another step forward, you’re looking at 30+ TDs and 4500 yards passing.

 

Watson is probably the second player taken if you were to have an expansion draft involving every player in the NFL.

Then there's the matter of 35million a year on a guy that won't win you more games than the guy you have at substantially less. Why are you confident that JA doesn't take a huge step forward with a better supporting cast. Listen, you're a fan of Watson, god bless. 

2 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

Jesus... it’s disrespectful and he shouldn’t have to see people question his future?!?

I forgot, the persecuted, woe is me Bills fan, has a mandate to think every promising young player will crap the bed eventually. 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Hampton Josh fan said:

Then there's the matter of 35million a year on a guy that won't win you more games than the guy you have at substantially less. Why are you confident that JA doesn't take a huge step forward with a better supporting cast. Listen, you're a fan of Watson, god bless. 

 

It isn't about being a fan of Watson it is about watching him play. As for the money.... I don't think even the OP was suggesting you move on from Josh while he is on a cheap rookie deal.

[NoSaint]

12 minutes ago, Hampton Josh fan said:

 

I forgot, the persecuted, woe is me Bills fan, has a mandate to think every promising young player will crap the bed eventually. 

wait, you are saying the OTHER people are the persecuted while playing the woah is josh card?

[Doc]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Can we just have a guarantee from folk that if Watson performs similarly again to his last two seasons they will accept that he is just good rather than trying to make excuses as to why he is good?

 

No one is saying that Watson isn't a good QB or currently isn't better than Josh.  But I'd be very surprised if he duplicates his last 2 (that is, when he was a full-season starter) seasons this year given the lack of weapons.  And that's no knock on him; every QB needs good players around him.

Edited April 4, 2020 by Doc

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

No one is saying that Watson isn't a good QB or currently isn't better than Josh.  But I'd be very surprised if he duplicates his last 2 (that is, when he was a full-season starter) seasons this year given the lack of weapons.  And that's no knock on him; every QB needs good players around him.

 

I think he will be very close to those numbers again.

[Hampton Josh fan]

1 minute ago, NoSaint said:

wait, you are saying the OTHER people are the persecuted while playing the woah is josh card?

No, just questioning why the guy who gets the team out of purgatory should all of a sudden be replaced by a guy retailing at 40 million a year and 45% of the cap. The optimum situation is sticking with the guy you drafted if you win with him.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Hampton Josh fan said:

No, just questioning why the guy who gets the team out of purgatory should all of a sudden be replaced by a guy retailing at 40 million a year and 45% of the cap. The optimum situation is sticking with the guy you drafted if you win with him.

 

If Josh is as good as Watson he will cost that same number. That is what we should hope for. And it won't be 45% by 2022.

[Hampton Josh fan]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If Josh is as good as Watson he will cost that same number. That is what we should hope for. And it won't be 45% by 2022.

I'm sure Josh will make his money if he wins games and especially playoff games, but just my opinion, he would be more likely to give a team friendly deal in order to keep the team at a high level, like Brady

 

[NoSaint]

11 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

No one is saying that Watson isn't a good QB or currently isn't better than Josh.  But I'd be very surprised if he duplicates his last 2 (that is, when he was a full-season starter) seasons this year given the lack of weapons.  And that's no knock on him; every QB needs good players around him.

 

BOB has outperformed my expectation a few times but if the team finally runs off the rails and players quit it would be about the only way I see a drastic change in Watson outside injury. 

[Doc]

17 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I think he will be very close to those numbers again.

 

2 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

BOB has outperformed my expectation a few times but if the team finally runs off the rails and players quit it would be about the only way I see a drastic change in Watson outside injury. 

 

I just don't believe you can remove the lynch pin of the offense in Hopkins, who was a great player before Watson came aboard, and expect everything to be fine.  But I guess we'll find out in a few months.

[BarleyNY]

21 hours ago, BobChalmers said:

 

Well apparently COVID can cause hallucinations and even brain damage, so I get where you're coming from!  ?

 

Watson will NOT be available.

Bill O’Brien. That’s the only thing that makes me pause.  You’re right though.  It’s incredibly unlikely that Watson would come available through FA.  But I could see another Clowney situation happening with Watson.  BOB is already poisoning that relationship.  If the Bills are built to win except that Allen hasn’t gotten to where he needs to be, then I’d be 100% on board with being aggressive and going and getting Watson (or any other top QB that might become available).  

[Hampton Josh fan]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

Holy ***** dude.

 

This is a sport. Don’t take this ***** so personal. 

OK, I understand diminishing my defending Josh response, but can you unequivocally tell me this young guy doesn't read every post on this board that question his ability, or Buffalo fans belief in him. Yea, it's only sport, but with all this time on everyone's hands, why not support a guy that gives his all. Your entitled to think it's frivolous, but I've bled internally with this team and finally I see some light.

[BarleyNY]

53 minutes ago, Hampton Josh fan said:

No, just questioning why the guy who gets the team out of purgatory should all of a sudden be replaced by a guy retailing at 40 million a year and 45% of the cap. The optimum situation is sticking with the guy you drafted if you win with him.

Some corrections:
- If there’s one guy who got the Bills out of purgatory, it is McDermott.

- Even if Watson were to get $40M/yr next season, that would still be less than 20% of the cap even in year 1.  That’s about what elite QBs will make.  Even middling QBs won’t be far behind at around $30M/yr.  

- Sure, the optimum situation is draft and keep an elite QB that you win Super Bowls with.  But it’d be really dumb to stick with a poor or middling QB just because you drafted him.  The next best situation is to find that elite QB some other way.  I don’t think anyone in New Orleans is upset that the Saints didn’t draft Brees.  Or anyone in Green Bay was pissed off that they didn’t draft Favre.

- Allen is only one season behind Watson in being due a new contract.  If he steps it up and becomes an elite QB, then he’s also going to get that $40M/yr deal.  I hope he does prove himself worthy of that.  But if he doesn’t, I’d rather the Bills have a different elite QB that they have to pay rather than a middling one that they have to pay almost as much.