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The Present and Future of the AFC East (Analysis and Observations)


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With the free agency adrenaline rush seemingly over, I thought it would be interesting (hopefully to others as well) to attempt a comprehensive assessment of the current state of the Bills and our AFC East rivals and then make some predictions about the performance of each team moving forward. I know that bits and pieces of this sort of topic have likely been discussed in other threads, but hoping this can be a sort of 'one-stop shop' for everyone. Let's start with the home team.

 

(Figures per Spotrac as of March 31st)

 

Buffalo Bills

Current 2020 Cap Space Remaining (Top 51 Players): $26,703,466

Dead Cap: $1,043,674

# of 2020 Players Signed: 69

(note that these figures don't appear to factor in the financials for EJ Gaines and Daryl Williams)

 

Current 2021 Cap Space Remaining (Top 51 Players): $69,834,150

# of 2021 Players Signed: 45

 

2020 Key Free Agent/Trade Acquisitions or Re-signings 

 

Offense: WR Stefon Diggs (traded from Minnesota), OT Daryl Williams (Carolina), OG Quinton Spain (resigned)

 

Defense: DE Mario Addison (Carolina), DT Vernon Butler (Carolina), DT Quinton Jefferson (Seattle), LB A.J. Klein (New Orleans), CB Josh Norman (Washington), CB E.J. Gaines (technically re-signed after not playing last season), Jordan Poyer (resigned)

 

Special Teams: LB Tyler Matakevich (Pittsburgh), RB Taiwan Jones (Houston)

 

2020 Key Free Agent/Trade Losses and Retirements

 

Offense: RB Frank Gore (***don't think he was a key loss by the second half of 2019, but we will have to replace his snaps)

 

Defense: DE Shaq Lawson (Miami), DT Jordan Phillips (Arizona), LB Lorenzo Alexander (retired), CB Kevin Johnson (Cleveland)

 

Special Teams: None

 

2020 Draft Capital (Draft Pool Cap: $4,645,086): Picks #54 (2nd Rd), #86 (3rd Rd), #128 (4th Rd), #167 (5th Rd), #188 (6th Rd), #207 (6th Rd), #239 (7th Rd)

 

2021 Draft Capital (Draft Cap Pool and Exact Selections Not Yet Available): One 1st Rd Pick, One 2nd Rd Pick, One 3rd Rd Pick, One 4th Rd Pick, Two 5th Rd Picks, One 6th Rd Pick, One 7th Rd Pick

 

Observations: 

- Diggs' elite route running (per Matt Harmon, Diggs has finished above the 93rd percentile vs. man coverage for 3 straight years) and contested catch abilities will bring out the best in Josh and give our offense a dimension we haven't had in years. Not to mention the more advantageous match ups Brown and Beasley will face in 2020 as well. 

- Jefferson could be one of the steals of this offseason. The underlying statistics show that he was one of the most disruptive pass rushers last season and the 12th Man were very upset to see him leave. While it wouldn't hurt to add another speed edge rusher, this defensive line group is the best top-end talent we've had since the peak year of Mario-Dareus-Kyle-Hughes AND is deeper than that year's group IMO.

- Resigning Spain and keeping the entire offensive line together (whether Williams or a draft pick can win a spot is another matter) is huge and a level of continuity we've rarely experienced. After a 2018 season where we only returned 2 offensive starters, the fact that Diggs might be the only change should do wonders.

- After years of trying to build this team to match up with the Pats, we now need to turn our attention to the Chiefs and Ravens. The additions of Diggs as a bonafide #1 WR and our defensive line signings all being skilled run defenders should help that regard. Furthermore, the pick at #54 needs to be the player that gives us the biggest edge in those match ups as well and after hearing Joe Marino and a few others on my Bills podcasts rotation sing his praises more and more, I'm coming around to the idea that Jeremy Chinn would be BPA and should be the pick if he reaches 54. Chinn would give us a true position-less defender with excellent range who can play in big nickel, three safety, and dime linebacker packages and mitigate some of that elite speed that Baltimore and KC have on offense. Ran a 4.45 40 yd dash with a 41" vertical. Kyle Dugger seems to be getting more attention, but Chinn is the better version of that type of versatile match up neutralizer we need. 

- 'Dirty Red' Matakevich (T-1st in ST tackles with 19 last season), Klein, and Jones should all provide a boost on special teams. Now all we need is a punter!

- With an inevitably shortened offseason program, the Bills did an excellent job of finding several players who are already familiar with our system. Combined with the longevity and consistency of our coaching staff, I believe this will prove to be a significant advantage over our division rivals. 

 

Outlook: Three years into the current regime of Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane, I believe it's fair to say we're ahead of schedule. Two playoff berths and a significant culture shift later, we're coming off a 10 win season with a plethora of young talent from the draft and have now executed two strong free agency plans in consecutive offseasons. We have a very tough schedule ahead in 2020 and I'm not going to write off the Pats until I see it with my own eyes on Sundays, but the division is up for grabs for the first time in 20 years and if Allen takes the step many of us believe he can, our team will be a genuine contender and should be hosting a playoff game in the snow next January. LET THAT SINK IN.

 

Prediction: 10-6 and AFC East title

 

Miami Dolphins

 

Current 2020 Cap Space Remaining (Top 51 Players): $33,016,394

Dead Cap: $10,708,110

# of 2020 Players Signed: 79

 

Current 2021 Cap Space Remaining (Top 51 Players): $75,375,937

# of 2021 Players Signed: 41

 

2020 Key Free Agent/Trade Acquisitions or Re-signings

 

Offense: OL Ereck Flowers (Washington), OL Ted Karras (New England), RB Jordan Howard (Philadelphia)

 

Defense: CB Byron Jones (Dallas), DE Shaq Lawson (Buffalo), DE Emmanuel Ogbah (Kansas City), LB Elandon Roberts (New England), LB Kyle Van Noy (New England), 

 

Special Teams: S Clayton Fejedelem (Cincinnati), LB Kamu Grugier-Hill (Philadelphia)

 

2020 Key Free Agent/Trade Losses and Retirements:

 

Offense: None

 

Defense: S Reshad Jones (released)

 

Special Teams: S Walt Aikens

 

2020 Draft Capital (Draft Pool Cap: $17,913,284): Picks #5 (1st Rd), #18 (1st Rd), #26 (1st Rd), #39 (2nd Rd), #56 (2nd Rd), #70 (3rd Rd), #141 (4th Rd), #153 (5th Rd), #154 (5th Rd), #173 (5th Rd), #185 (6th Rd), #227 (7th Rd), #246 (7th Rd), #251 (7th Rd)

 

2021 Draft Capital (Draft Cap Pool and Exact Selections Not Yet Available): Two 1st Rd Picks, Two 2nd Rd Picks, One 3rd Rd Pick, One 4th Rd Pick, One 5th Rd Pick, No 6th Rd Picks, One 7th Rd Pick

 

Observations: 

- A mixed bag of players acquired IMO. I think the Lawson and Van Noy moves were good buys albeit the standard early free agency overpays and Elandon Roberts/Ted Karras are solid versatile assets on both sides of the ball. However, while they filled positions of need, the deals to bring in Jones, Ogbah, and Flowers look very questionable to me and the money doesn't match the production. Jones hasn't intercepted a pass since 2017 (has 2 total in 79 games) and has never stood out on tape to me. Ogbah struggles to stay healthy (two season-ending injuries in his 4 years) and benefited from the attention Chris Jones and Frank Clark drew last year. Flowers had a bounce-back year at guard under BIll Callaghan after proving he couldn't play OT at the NFL level and is now moving to his third team in 3 years with even less talent around him. 

- We should dominate the LOS against this team next year regardless of what they do in the draft. I have serious questions about Flowers and he's still probably their most talented O-lineman. Whoever is at QB for Miami will not have much time to throw and Jordan Howard will experience the worst run blocking he's seen in his career thus far. 

- My first impression is that this is a collection of individuals rather than a team and it will take them a while to gel so hopefully we will play them early in the schedule. Flores was impressive at times in an experimental/zero expectations-type first year as HC and made the most out of a bad situation, but now the pressure will be ramped up with all these new signings and he'll be truly tested for the first time.

- The Dolphins do have an outstanding amount of draft capital at their disposal in not just 2020, but in the 2021 draft as well (the legend of Bill O'Brien strikes again!). I think Miami will have to trade up for Tua and burn a decent amount of these picks in the process if that's their target. Ideally, Tua will land outside the AFC East and the Dolphins will struggle to hit on their picks as they have in past years. 

-The current Bills front office seems to subscribe to the theory that you should only allocate a relatively proportionate amount of cap to each position group and one has to assume that agreeing to pay two cornerbacks a combined $159 million over the next 5 years will backfire. Especially when neither one is Tre White or Stephon Gilmore. 

 

Outlook: Definitely the most unpredictable team of the AFC East. With the most cap space and draft capital in the league, they had a huge talent deficit to fill after using a league-record 84 players in 2019 and they have done an average job on spending their resources so far IMO. The defense looks like it will be much improved in 2020 with some returning building blocks like Xavien Howard and Christian Wilkins combined with new faces like Van Noy, Lawson, and Jones. However, the offense has a long way to go (ask yourself, is there a single player on Miami's offense that would start for the Bills? And we're not exactly an offensive juggernaut yet either) and I still think they have more gaps than what their meaningful draft picks can fill at this point. I do think Miami could become a strong team in the future, but there are too many variables for them to put it all together this year. 

 

Prediction: 7-9, missing the new third AFC wildcard spot by 2 games

 

 

New England Patriots

Current 2020 Cap Space Remaining (Top 51 Players): $1,918,880

Dead Cap: $23,998,306

# of 2020 Players Signed: 67

 

Current 2021 Cap Space Remaining (Top 51 Players): $105,874,695

# of 2021 Players Signed: 30

 

2020 Key Free Agent/Trade Acquisitions or Re-signings

 

Offense: Joe Thuney (franchise-tagged), WR Damiere Byrd (Arizona), QB Brian Hoyer (Indianapolis), FB Danny Vitale (Green Bay)

 

Defense: DT Beau Allen (Tampa Bay), LB Brandon Copeland (Jets), Devin McCourty (re-signed)

 

Special Teams: Matthew Slater (resigned), S Adrian Phillips (Chargers)

 

2020 Key Free Agent/Trade Losses and Retirements

 

Offense: QB Tom Brady (Tampa Bay), WR Phillip Dorsett (Seattle), OL Ted Karras (Miami)

 

Defense: LB Jamie Collins (Detroit), DB Duron Harmon (traded to Detroit), DT Danny Shelton (Detroit), LB Kyle Van Noy (Miami)

 

Special Teams: DB Nate Ebner (Giants)

 

2020 Draft Capital (Draft Pool Cap: $9,038,977): Picks #23 (1st Rd), #87 (3rd Rd), #98 (3rd Rd), #100 (3rd Rd), #125 (4th Rd), #172 (5th Rd), #195 (6th Rd), #204 (6th Rd), #212 (6th Rd), #213 (6th Rd), #230 (7th Rd), #241 (7th Rd)

 

2021 Draft Capital (Draft Cap Pool and Exact Selections Not Yet Available): One 1st Rd Pick, One 2nd Rd Pick, One 3rd Rd Pick, One 4th Rd Pick, One 5th Rd Pick, Two 6th Rd Picks, Two 7th Rd Picks

 

Observations: 

- Everyone's tired of hearing about TB12, but you cannot overstate what he meant to that offense, coaching staff, and fan base. He covered up a lot of weaknesses and draft misses in that roster and it will be very interesting to see how the team and fans react going forward.

- Currently, the Pats have the worst QB room in the league and are lacking the cap space to trade for/sign a Dalton or Newton in free agency (they could get the money to work by trading Thuney, but then that leaves a huge hole on their offensive line) so I would expect them to draft a QB in the first round like Jordan Love to compete with Stidham. I don't believe the coaching staff or the locker room would accept a 'tanking' strategy.

- The front seven of that defense has been gutted and that will put a lot of pressure on what is still a strong secondary. 

- The loss of the fantastic special teams ace and Olympian Ebner is probably being underestimated and Matthew Slater turns 35 in September. Combined with the release of Gostowski, expect this unit to take a step back. 

 

Outlook: There's no other way to put it...the Pats took a massive step backwards on paper this offseason. While they'll surely be swimming in those much-desired comp picks again next year, they lost a significant amount of talent in all three phases and did very little to replace it. Not one of their acquisitions above is equal to or better than the guy they're replacing. Add to that the relatively geriatric age of the roster and minuscule amount of cap space and it's hard to see how the Evil Empire will worm their way out of this hole. The Hoodie has his work cut out for him. 

 

Prediction: 7-9, missing the new third AFC wildcard spot by 2 games

 

 

New York Jets

Current 2020 Cap Space Remaining (Top 51 Players): $34,188,936

Dead Cap: $1,087,320

# of 2020 Players Signed: 75

 

Current 2021 Cap Space Remaining (Top 51 Players): $109,241, 051

# of 2021 Players Signed: 35

 

2020 Key Free Agent/Trade Acquisitions or Re-signings

 

Offense: OL Josh Andrews (Indianapolis), OT George Fant (Seattle), C Connor McGovern (Denver), OL Greg Van Roten (Carolina), G Alex Lewis (re-signed), WR Josh Doctson (Minnesota), WR Breshad Perriman (Tampa Bay)

 

Defense: DE Jordan Jenkins (re-signed), LB Patrick Onwuasor (Baltimore), CB Brian Poole (resigned), CB Pierre Desir (Indianapolis)

 

Special Teams: None

 

2020 Key Free Agent/Trade Losses and Retirements

 

Offense: WR Robby Anderson (Carolina), OT Brandon Shell (Seattle), OT Kelvin Beachum

 

Defense: LB Brandon Copeland (New England), CB Trumaine Johnson, CB Darryl Roberts

 

Special Teams: None

 

2020 Draft Capital (Draft Pool Cap: $8,441,384): Picks #11 (1st Rd), #48 (2nd Rd), #68 (3rd Rd), #79 (3rd Rd), #120 (4th Rd), #158 (5th Rd), #191 (6th Rd), #211 (7th Rd)

 

2021 Draft Capital (Draft Cap Pool and Exact Selections Not Yet Available): One 1st Rd Pick, One 2nd Rd Pick, One 3rd Rd Pick, One 4th Rd Pick, Two 5th Rd Picks, No 6th Rd Picks, Two 7th Rd Picks

 

Observations: 

- With the exception of the Fant signing, I actually like what the Jets have done in the offseason. Their new GM Joe Douglas seems to be imitating the Brandon Beane approach to a degree as opposed to the wild spending of the previous regime. Douglas focused on adding role players on short term contracts with low guaranteed dollars. McGovern and Van Roten are not stars, but were signed for reasonable contracts and should be fairly dependable starters for the Jets. They will be upgrades by default over what they had last year. Despite poor play in 2019, Desir was a good pickup as well and someone I would have liked the Bills to target. 

- I'm not a believer in Perriman and I think their WR corps has downgraded with the loss of Robby Anderson. Their lack of talent at the skill positions on offense will hurt Darnold and this offense will struggle to score points (***drafting Jeudy/Lamb/Ruggs at pick #11 could help improve this drastically, but I really think they have a bigger need at left tackle).

- The relationship between Gase and Bell seems likely to blow up this year. Guessing he gets moved at the deadline for a 5th round pick to a contender with an injured starter.

- A healthy CJ Mosley would make a huge impact for this defense which is already sneaky good IMO. Whether he can return to form could swing their season 1-2 games in either direction.

 

Outlook: Might not be a popular opinion, but I think Joe Douglas is cleaning up a huge mess and doing a decent job of bringing in some steady players and fixing the cap in Year 1 (circa Bills 2017). The interior O-line and CB positions have been reinforced by solid not spectacular players and healthier versions of Darnold and Mosley could place this team solidly in the wildcard race. However, unfortunately for Jets fans, there's one huge factor that mitigates a lot of that potential improvement/optimism and its name is Adam Gase. He will continue to make curious in-game decisions, alienate his players, and drive whatever culture is left in the NYJ locker room off whatever bridge they have in Jersey. If there is a team in the league that will underperform solely due to its head coach, this is it. Will he see a third season in green? 

 

Prediction: 6-10, missing the new third AFC wildcard spot by 3 games

 

*********

 

A longer read than I had planned on, but hopefully some of you have made it this far. Excited to get your feedback and discuss...most importantly, I hope this provided a momentary distraction from everything COVID-19 related. Hope you and your families are all healthy and staying safe. All the best and Go Bills!

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14 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

I just saw a mock posted here with Miami getting Tua and Ruggs.  Still 7-9?

 

NE is gets even 7 wins with Stidham?

Seems weird, but you could also word it this way:  Belichick only gets 7 wins?

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7 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

I just saw a mock posted here with Miami getting Tua and Ruggs.  Still 7-9?

 

NE is gets even 7 wins with Stidham?

Do you have a link? At what spots did Tua and Ruggs III get drafted? Because I think in order for Miami to wind up with those two players, they'd have to hope Tua falls to pick #5 and then package picks #18 and #26 to trade up into the top 12 for Ruggs. Personally, I don't think Tua makes it to 5 and Ruggs won't make it past 13. 

 

I think your wider point is that Miami can improve a lot based on all their draft capital and I agree, they should be able to bring in a lot of young talent. My argument would be that those players will need time to gel and develop and I think they had such a talent deficit to start with. Their past history suggests they will miss on a lot of these picks as well. I think Miami is moving in the right direction for the most part, but I doubt they'll be a winning team this season.

 

As for the Pats, we've all been burned too many times before predicting their demise. 7-9 seems fair to me as they still have a few difference-makers on both sides of the ball plus the draft, but the lack of a QB and the talent they lost on defense will hurt them significantly as things stand.

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That was a terrific read that could have been mistaken for pro. Great Job!

 

I think you are right that the winner of the division is going to be in that 9-11 win range. The schedule is absolutely brutal next year for this division.

 

The Pats to me are still a threat. Their defense is still very good despite losing a few players and I don’t think it’s going to be as difficult to replace Brady’s production last year as some think.

 

Im not sold on Miami as a 7-9 team. They were a 2 win type of team last year that won a few games because Fitzpatrick got hot. They reminded me a lot of the 2017 Jets with McCown in that regard. The next season against a tougher schedule with a rookie QB the Jets regressed from 5-11 to 4-12.

 

The Jets are another team that I expect some regression. They won 7 games on the backs of a weak schedule, but probably were more of a 4/5 win team from a talent standpoint. I agree with you on Douglas. He’s got a six year contract and is slow playing it to build things the right way. His strategy is sound, but in order for it to work he needs to be able to find players in the draft. The concern amongst Jets fans is that he’s not doing enough to help Darnold in a critical third year. The interesting fact here is that Douglas did not draft Darnold so I’m wondering if that factors into some of his decisions. He could easily scape goat Darnold and Gase and continue with his strategy next offseason around his hand picked coach and QB. 

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Nice job. I disagree with your outcomes, though. This is how I see things shaking out in the AFC East:

 

1st- Bills (10 or 11 wins)

2nd- Jets (8 or 9 wins)

3rd- Patriots (7 or 8 wins)

4th- Dolphins (5 or 6 wins)

 

I know the Dolphins are getting a lot of hype, but I don't see it personally. I think they'll be bad for the next couple of years while rebuilding.

 

People seem to forget that Darnold missed a significant chunk of games last year. The Jets had a raw deal for the first half of the season. They still went 7-9. I think they'll be better this year and end up as an 8 win squad, or even get 9.

 

Patriots are self explanatory. Bill Belichick wills them to a handful of wins but he can't overcome the lack of talent on offense and the lack of a QB.

Edited by MJS
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3 hours ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

Do you have a link? At what spots did Tua and Ruggs III get drafted? Because I think in order for Miami to wind up with those two players, they'd have to hope Tua falls to pick #5 and then package picks #18 and #26 to trade up into the top 12 for Ruggs. Personally, I don't think Tua makes it to 5 and Ruggs won't make it past 13. 

 

I think your wider point is that Miami can improve a lot based on all their draft capital and I agree, they should be able to bring in a lot of young talent. My argument would be that those players will need time to gel and develop and I think they had such a talent deficit to start with. Their past history suggests they will miss on a lot of these picks as well. I think Miami is moving in the right direction for the most part, but I doubt they'll be a winning team this season.

 

As for the Pats, we've all been burned too many times before predicting their demise. 7-9 seems fair to me as they still have a few difference-makers on both sides of the ball plus the draft, but the lack of a QB and the talent they lost on defense will hurt them significantly as things stand.

 

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001107996/article/peter-schrager-nfl-mock-draft-10-dolphins-take-qb-wr-rb.  It was posted in the box yesterday.  Tua at 5.  They already have Parker and Gesicki (a stud).  If they can get ANY RB, plus Tua and Ruggs (I know that's a lot), they would be instantly dangerous.

 

Kyler Murray walked into AZ and with only ol' Larry Fitz as a weapon took them from a dead last Offense (225 points) to 16 (361 points--more than the Bills have scored in any of the past 3 seasons).  Daniel Jones threw 24 TDs in 12 starts last season.  It can be done.

 

NE's entire offense is now Edelman and Michel.  Brady burned all the demise predictors for years.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, JetsFan20 said:

That was a terrific read that could have been mistaken for pro. Great Job!

 

I think you are right that the winner of the division is going to be in that 9-11 win range. The schedule is absolutely brutal next year for this division.

 

The Pats to me are still a threat. Their defense is still very good despite losing a few players and I don’t think it’s going to be as difficult to replace Brady’s production last year as some think.

 

Im not sold on Miami as a 7-9 team. They were a 2 win type of team last year that won a few games because Fitzpatrick got hot. They reminded me a lot of the 2017 Jets with McCown in that regard. The next season against a tougher schedule with a rookie QB the Jets regressed from 5-11 to 4-12.

 

The Jets are another team that I expect some regression. They won 7 games on the backs of a weak schedule, but probably were more of a 4/5 win team from a talent standpoint. I agree with you on Douglas. He’s got a six year contract and is slow playing it to build things the right way. His strategy is sound, but in order for it to work he needs to be able to find players in the draft. The concern amongst Jets fans is that he’s not doing enough to help Darnold in a critical third year. The interesting fact here is that Douglas did not draft Darnold so I’m wondering if that factors into some of his decisions. He could easily scape goat Darnold and Gase and continue with his strategy next offseason around his hand picked coach and QB. 

Appreciate that buddy! 

 

Yeah very tough schedule that will keep the win totals down for each team and very tough to predict the outcomes of each of the other AFC East teams (it definitely stood out as I wrote this that the Bills are the most stable team/organization at the moment which would have been hard to believe just a few short seasons ago). 

 

I think you make a lot of fair points about each team. Pats will win more games than they should due to Belichick and some of the leadership they retained there. Miami will probably not live up to the hype they are getting at the moment (although if they find a way to get Tua and hit on some other high draft picks, that could save them). And the Jets are definitely in flux. I think Douglas is doing a good job so far, but as you can tell, I'm not a Gase fan at all. And as you pointed out, they haven't brought in the high-end talent on offense yet to help Darnold. He definitely has the worst supporting cast out of that QB class not counting Rosen. 

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I like a lot what you did.

 

I just feel it is a little over pessimistic with our rivals.

 

Try this... write the Dolphins again as if they were the Bills,I think we would all be static to have all that Draft Capital and the moves they made during FA. I´m not saying they are better than us, but I certainly worried about them.

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4 hours ago, Antonio said:

I like a lot what you did.

 

I just feel it is a little over pessimistic with our rivals.

 

Try this... write the Dolphins again as if they were the Bills,I think we would all be static to have all that Draft Capital and the moves they made during FA. I´m not saying they are better than us, but I certainly worried about them.

Thanks man. Yeah 100%, I get what you're saying. I promise I did my best to look at each team objectively and I genuinely believe the Bills are in the strongest position to win at the moment. But Dolphins fans should be super excited...they aren't far removed from being called one of the worst teams in history and now have a bunch of new pricey FAs and a ton of draft picks to look forward to. 

 

I'm high on a few of their signings as well as their head coach and I mentioned the draft capital, but I think they will either miss out on Tua at pick #5 or have to trade a lot of those picks in order to get him. The draft is hard to predict so it's therefore hard to predict what the Dolphins will ultimately look like on Sundays.

 

In the end, Miami is likely headed in the right direction and could be a big threat to us in the coming years (as others have said, it's not difficult to envision a return to the 90s when it was Buffalo vs. Miami for the division with the Jets a bit behind and the Pats being irrelevant). I just don't think Miami will field a winning team in 2020 and that's kind of what I was focused on.  

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Incredibly non technical and non Palmeresque, but how 'bout somebody talk to him about not coming out of the locker room like a lunatic?

He seems almost out of control until he gets a couple series, settles in, and then looks pretty good.

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3 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Yea I don’t want Miami to get Tua. Really hope Washington takes him.


I think Tua is drop in this draft. Players who can’t stay healthy in college typically don’t stay healthy in the pros. 
 

It’s been more than just one injury with Tua. He’s gotten banged up every season. 

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On 4/2/2020 at 1:45 AM, CSBill said:

Thorough analysis, thanks. More WFH activity tomorrow ?

Thanks dude, appreciate it! And 100%, have been WFH since early March. We've been on full lockdown here in Northern Ireland for about 10 days now which is hopefully slowing the outbreak down, fingers crossed. 

 

Hope everyone is hanging in there back home in Buffalo and elsewhere.

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On ‎4‎/‎2‎/‎2020 at 5:43 AM, MJS said:

Nice job. I disagree with your outcomes, though. This is how I see things shaking out in the AFC East:

 

1st- Bills (10 or 11 wins)

2nd- Jets (8 or 9 wins)

3rd- Patriots (7 or 8 wins)

4th- Dolphins (5 or 6 wins)

 

I know the Dolphins are getting a lot of hype, but I don't see it personally. I think they'll be bad for the next couple of years while rebuilding.

 

People seem to forget that Darnold missed a significant chunk of games last year. The Jets had a raw deal for the first half of the season. They still went 7-9. I think they'll be better this year and end up as an 8 win squad, or even get 9.

 

Patriots are self explanatory. Bill Belichick wills them to a handful of wins but he can't overcome the lack of talent on offense and the lack of a QB.

 

If the Dolphins do well in the draft they will show improvement. They played hard for their HC last season and did better than what many thought they would. I could see 7 or 8 wins. I wouldn't count out NE as they still have Bill and their D is strong. To me the Pats are the Pats until they aren't. It's not like they lost a '"STILL IN HIS PRIME" Brady. NE will run the ball and play D. They will be fighting with the Bills for the division. The Jets may have finished the season strong but they beat a bunch of cupcakes to rack up those wins and a Bills team that had no interest in playing the season finale. If the Bills needed that game they would have won it. I live in NJ and am a Jets season ticket holder. Every Jets fan I have talked to said they believe Joe Douglas will build a winner around Darnold but it will take time (2 or 3 years). Basically what Beane has done for the Bills. Just about all of them don't like Gase and think he will eventually have to be replaced for the Jets to become a contender.

 

Bills 10-6

Pats 9-7

Fins  7-9

Jets 5-11

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