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Betting strategy implications of COVID and the offseason


Cson76

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A few thoughts as I think about how to play the upcoming season.

1.  If there is a shortened/limited training camp I am going to hammer under's early in the season.  Defense is always ahead of offense in training camp.

2.  I'll play against any new coaches/coordinators early and often

3.  Going to prioritize older rosters, figure the vets are going to learn faster and possibly know how to come in more prepared physically

4.  probably will lay off all pre season win total bets

 

Any other thoughts?

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10 minutes ago, Cson76 said:

A few thoughts as I think about how to play the upcoming season.

1.  If there is a shortened/limited training camp I am going to hammer under's early in the season.  Defense is always ahead of offense in training camp.

2.  I'll play against any new coaches/coordinators early and often

3.  Going to prioritize older rosters, figure the vets are going to learn faster and possibly know how to come in more prepared physically

4.  probably will lay off all pre season win total bets

 

Any other thoughts?

Interesting. Like the way you are thinking. 

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7 minutes ago, Cson76 said:

A few thoughts as I think about how to play the upcoming season.

1.  If there is a shortened/limited training camp I am going to hammer under's early in the season.  Defense is always ahead of offense in training camp.

2.  I'll play against any new coaches/coordinators early and often

3.  Going to prioritize older rosters, figure the vets are going to learn faster and possibly know how to come in more prepared physically

4.  probably will lay off all pre season win total bets

 

Any other thoughts?

other thoughts? I got one...

who cares about betting on a season that may or may not even be played? I'm more worried about my toilet paper supply at this point of the pandemic. and that's really my only other thought. Sorry if I didn't add much content to your thread

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1 minute ago, BuffAlone said:

other thoughts? I got one...

who cares about betting on a season that may or may not even be played? I'm more worried about my toilet paper supply at this point of the pandemic. and that's really my only other thought. Sorry if I didn't add much content to your thread

 

You did add something, you discussed #2.

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50 minutes ago, BuffAlone said:

other thoughts? I got one...

who cares about betting on a season that may or may not even be played? I'm more worried about my toilet paper supply at this point of the pandemic. and that's really my only other thought. Sorry if I didn't add much content to your thread

As it relates to your TP supply worries, my neighbor has a similar concern.  He has started buying the local newspaper and is stockpiling them as a fall back.  He did comment that the future use is of more value than the information printed therein....can't say that I disagree.....lol

My betting advice is to hit the under heavy on weeks where at least one of the teams has a short week of preparation.

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3 minutes ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

As it relates to your TP supply worries, my neighbor has a similar concern.  He has started buying the local newspaper and is stockpiling them as a fall back.  He did comment that the future use is of more value than the information printed therein....can't say that I disagree.....lol

My betting advice is to hit the under heavy on weeks where at least one of the teams has a short week of preparation.

 

Hope he or she isnt stupid enough to flush newspaper down the toilet.

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1 hour ago, BuffAlone said:

other thoughts? I got one...

who cares about betting on a season that may or may not even be played? I'm more worried about my toilet paper supply at this point of the pandemic. and that's really my only other thought. Sorry if I didn't add much content to your thread

Get a bidet. 

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I follow the logic on the old vs young players but i think you could argue that betting young players may be better; more time to train less stress about family etc. Not sure if its an advantage either way

 

I do like the coach aspect, new or bad coaches just hammer the other way

 

Also with pre season win totals if you can create your own line, this could be a great spot for a lotto ticket of sorts. Example moving the bills win total to 13 and betting the over to get better odds

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1 hour ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

As it relates to your TP supply worries, my neighbor has a similar concern.  He has started buying the local newspaper and is stockpiling them as a fall back.  He did comment that the future use is of more value than the information printed therein....can't say that I disagree.....lol

My betting advice is to hit the under heavy on weeks where at least one of the teams has a short week of preparation.

newspapers work, but coffee filters are cheaper, and flushable?

29 minutes ago, ny33 said:

Get a bidet. 

call me old fashioned, but the thought of cold water squirting my unpleasant parts kinda seems weird to me lol

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2 hours ago, Cson76 said:

A few thoughts as I think about how to play the upcoming season.

1.  If there is a shortened/limited training camp I am going to hammer under's early in the season.  Defense is always ahead of offense in training camp.

2.  I'll play against any new coaches/coordinators early and often

3.  Going to prioritize older rosters, figure the vets are going to learn faster and possibly know how to come in more prepared physically

4.  probably will lay off all pre season win total bets

 

Any other thoughts?

Same thing I always do, take advantage of public perception and theories that aren't back by any evidence.  

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3 hours ago, Cson76 said:

A few thoughts as I think about how to play the upcoming season.

1.  If there is a shortened/limited training camp I am going to hammer under's early in the season.  Defense is always ahead of offense in training camp.

2.  I'll play against any new coaches/coordinators early and often

3.  Going to prioritize older rosters, figure the vets are going to learn faster and possibly know how to come in more prepared physically

4.  probably will lay off all pre season win total bets

 

Any other thoughts?


just in general- smart takes .... didn’t even think about it, but bookies must be starving right now. 

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I started a thread last week (that got shut down because people couldn't stay on topic and turned it into a COVID thread) in which I opined that teams with the most stability (coaching staff/roster) will have a big advantage if teams can't have their full complement of minicamp, OTAs, and training camp.  I think this translates into a lot of sound betting advice, which has been noted by the OP.

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18 hours ago, BuffAlone said:

other thoughts? I got one...

who cares about betting on a season that may or may not even be played? I'm more worried about my toilet paper supply at this point of the pandemic. and that's really my only other thought. Sorry if I didn't add much content to your thread

 

Never hurts to be prepared.

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I have an idea that when the NFL does the schedule the AFC- NFC games should be played first they count the least for tiebreakers in seeding for the playoffs so if something like this happens and training camp and preseason is shortened that will let those games help teams get up to speed before the more important divisional  and conference games. Another thought came to me if this lingers longer than expected the league can scratch the AFC-NFC games extend the season start to October and save the season and keep the super bowl and the next off season schedule on time. I think the league needs to come up with a plan to address this instead of waiting to the last minute when the logistics of making big change could be too great to save the season. I don't want to wait to 2021 to watch the Bills play again and with that kind break it would slow the development of the younger players which will affect the product on the field longer term. 

 

 

Edited by The Patriots always cheat
To add one more thought
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On 3/27/2020 at 2:15 PM, BuffAlone said:

other thoughts? I got one...

who cares about betting on a season that may or may not even be played? I'm more worried about my toilet paper supply at this point of the pandemic. and that's really my only other thought. Sorry if I didn't add much content to your thread

Yet, you found the strength and courage to post on a message board.

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