maryland-bills-fan Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 Posted this elsewhere. We have several, slightly different threads on running backs and what to do with our #54 pick. Quote Here is a running back rating list from FootBall Outsiders. “Running backs are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the performance on plays where this RB carried/caught the ball compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage” Let’s look at the top 10 RB’s and then how the Bills 2019 guys fit it. Name team drafted college TOP 10 E Elliot Dallas R1 4 Ohio State C McCaffrey Carolina R1 8 Stanford M.Ingram Baltimore R1 28 Alabama A. Jones Green Bay R5 182 Texas El-Paso K Drake Tampa R3 73 Alabama D Henry Ten R2 45 Alabama R. Mostert SF UFA Purdue D Cook Minn R2 41 Florida State N. Chubb Cleveland R2 35 Georgia C Carson Seattle R7 299 Ok. State …… Number 20 D Singletary Buffalo R3 74 Florida Atlantic Number 44 F Gore Buffalo R3 65 Miami OK. Six of the top ten were drafted in the first two rounds. If you want a difference maker that is your best bet to get a difference maker. I want the Bills to get to the SB, I do not want to watch a bargain basement team just fight for a playoff spot some years. The Bills have 19 teams ahead of them in the RB listing. Gore is next to the bottom and is gone in 2020. If we really want to win, we should be at least in the top ten. Yeldon is not that guy. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/rb/2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 25 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said: Posted this elsewhere. We have several, slightly different threads on running backs and what to do with our #54 pick. If we're going to use Football Outsiders' numbers, DVOA probably makes more sense. DYAR will likely prop up 1st rounders because teams that take a RB in the 1st round will feel obligated to use them as more of a bellcow so they'll naturally have more touches and fare better in terms of DYAR. DVOA is focused on the value each RB gives on a per touch basis (also probably more important in our case due to the fact that Singletary didn't become a starter until well into the season). Singletary ranks 13th in terms of DVOA. It seems possible to me we already have our top 10 guy. And in terms of DVOA, 4 of the top 10 from last year were drafted in the first 2 rounds. 5 were drafted in the 5th round or later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said: Posted this elsewhere. We have several, slightly different threads on running backs and what to do with our #54 pick. Regarding the chart - is this looking at total yards in relation to what they would've had as a replacement level? Wouldn't this tend to lead itself to favor players who had more touches? Regarding the pick, I'm open to it if its a highly talented player that slips. If its like we're drafting a back because we need one and panicked at 54, I'm not a fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frez Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 I believe we need to take a quality RB at 54 if the our guy is there. It would be disastrous if Devin went down early on us in the season and we had to rely on Yeldon. For that alone I'm banking on taking a RB early in this years draft, at least I hope we do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nihilarian Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 On 3/26/2020 at 9:58 PM, Inigo Montoya said: I think Motor is great. At 5' 7", 203 lbs I worry about his durability across a full season and playoff run. We need a solid 1b to go with Singletary's 1a. He was used sparingly last season and still missed three games with his hammy. The most carries he had in a game all season was 21. We need another skilled RB to pair up with him. I don't see it that way... Thurman Thomas 5'10'' 200 lb...Barry Sanders 5' 8'' 203 lb...Walter Payton 5'10'' 200 lbs. Bet you can't even tell me who the backups were to Sanders, Payton. You just need a competent durable body behind the starter. P.S. If I recall correctly the Bears didn't even have a backup RB and instead had a FB, same with Detroit. I get that in today's NFL teams want two viable starting RB's to spread the load over the season. However, that starting RB should be the feature back and they usually get better as the game goes on. I've said it before, I think the Bills FO is looking at Christian Wade as having a spot on the active roster this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maryland-bills-fan Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/4/1/21198814/opinion-making-adjustments-to-the-running-backs-dont-matter-philosophy If anybody can explain this to me, please post it or send a PM. I don't know if I have had too much or too little to drink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 On 3/28/2020 at 1:48 AM, LSHMEAB said: They drafted Devin in the 3rd round last season. That means he's supposed to be an impactful player. Investing another 2nd or 3rd at RB is just not good value. I would say it would only be a major concern if you have questions about Singletary. I stopped reading after his “running backs don’t matter” straw man. I can't think of a single fan who would say that. They might say "running backs are devalued" or "don't use a high pick on a RB"--but no credible football fan would say they don't matter... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 18 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said: https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/4/1/21198814/opinion-making-adjustments-to-the-running-backs-dont-matter-philosophy If anybody can explain this to me, please post it or send a PM. I don't know if I have had too much or too little to drink. He's just saying that you shouldn't take RBs in the 1st round because they aren't very valuable and you shouldn't give RBs big long-term contracts because they aren't very valuable. It's a lot of words to say that, but that's essentially all he's saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Noggin Posted April 2, 2020 Author Share Posted April 2, 2020 15 hours ago, BUFFALOBART said: No. I dig your directness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaaadThingsMan Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 I think Motor can be a Thurman Thomas type of back. All respect to #34 because he did the damn thing and I'm not saying he will put up those kind of numbers but I'm not sure having breakaway speed is all that important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maryland-bills-fan Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 4 hours ago, BaaadThingsMan said: I think Motor can be a Thurman Thomas type of back. All respect to #34 because he did the damn thing and I'm not saying he will put up those kind of numbers but I'm not sure having breakaway speed is all that important It is when your back can do it and does it a few times. "Safeties" have to peek in the backfield all the time. The LB zones for passes become different. IT makes the passing game better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njbuff Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 6 hours ago, BaaadThingsMan said: I think Motor can be a Thurman Thomas type of back. All respect to #34 because he did the damn thing and I'm not saying he will put up those kind of numbers but I'm not sure having breakaway speed is all that important No one is/was or ever will be Thurman. No disrespect to DS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JESSEFEFFER Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 At no point in the discussion did they bring up that a well rounded RB is a huge asset to a passing game, much as Thurman was and that should be a point that is considered. Yes, "running backs don't matter" is an extreme position. Yes, the passing game matters more than the running game. Yes, other positions are more correlated to winning and losing. Yes, rules changes have devalued runners. Yes, rbs tend to lose their effectiveness earlier in their careers. Bruce argues these points. But, he finished by saying that if a highly talented RB falls to 54 the Bills should consider making the pick because it might improve the roster more by replacing Yeldon than say a less highly rated CB would that forces EJ Gaines off the roster. I almost hope they get a RB they think is elite in the 2nd round and maybe even trade up a little to get him just to watch some heads explode around here. Hah! My position is that the next RB talent chosen to pair with Singletary is likely to play a bigger role on the team in 2020 and the 3 years follow than any other player they draft. There are no other obvious holes in the roster and most everyone else they drat will have to battle to make the 55. So, why not do what they can to make this an elite talent. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DefenseWins Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 The Bills DO need another RB to back up Singletary. Whether they get him with their 2nd rd pick however is open to debate. As Singletary himself demonstrates a really good RB can be found in the mid rds. (3-4) On the other hand there should be some rather good young OT's available in rd 2. Or perhaps an edge guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaaadThingsMan Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 On 4/2/2020 at 2:53 PM, maryland-bills-fan said: It is when your back can do it and does it a few times. "Safeties" have to peek in the backfield all the time. The LB zones for passes become different. IT makes the passing game better. Right , but not that many backs have it anyways. 23 hours ago, njbuff said: No one is/was or ever will be Thurman. No disrespect to DS. No way, but #26 can be an every down duel threat out of the backfield for years to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillsGospel Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 Glaring need to me means you need a starter there, I think Devin Singletary would make an excellent starter, Yeldon is a big back who can also catch which is a plus, I think we'll either draft 3rd or 4th round or perhaps looks at Carlos Hyde if the price is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maryland-bills-fan Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 Hyde had a 1 year $ 2.8 million contract with KC last year. I think we will not be interested in him unless the draft doesn't bring us a RB. He was drafted #57 in 2014, so he is in his 7th year, so he is not a young puppy. He is not that expensive compared to 2nd and 3rd round draft picks, who are on a 4 year contract. Those contracts go about as follows: 2nd round $M per year bonus $M 33-41 1.8 0 .9 42-48 1.6 0.7 49 - 64 1.1 0.6 3rd round 75-92 0.95 0.2 https://heavy.com/sports/2019/04/nfl-draft-pick-salaries-contracts-signing-bonuses/ https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/carlos-hyde-14467/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsCelticsAngelsBama Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 An injury to Singletary would be very scary if they don't add REAL quality to the running backs'room. Not some slug or former Panther 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSBill Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 (edited) On 4/2/2020 at 8:21 PM, JESSEFEFFER said: I almost hope they get a RB they think is elite in the 2nd round and maybe even trade up a little to get him just to watch some heads explode around here. Hah! My position is that the next RB talent chosen to pair with Singletary is likely to play a bigger role on the team in 2020 and the 3 years follow than any other player they draft. There are no other obvious holes in the roster and most everyone else they drat will have to battle to make the 55. So, why not do what they can to make this an elite talent. This, a bigger RB that can run between the tackles, and who can block and catch passes in the passing game. Free agent or draft, that is he need. Edited April 6, 2020 by CSBill 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAMIEBUF12 Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 Don’t we also have Christian Wade this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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