2020 Scoring Targets for OBD based on 2019 Playoff Teams

[freddyjj]

OBD has an analytics team in their employ and I trust they are looking at trends in the league to see where they need to improve.  Beane is on record saying the Bills need to score more points offensively in 2020 in order to make the playoffs and advance once there.  So what would be good scoring goals for the Bills in 2020?

 

As many of us learned in 2019, the Buffalo Bills made the playoffs based on the strength of their defense and their soft schedule.  They were aided by the fact they faced some teams who were minus their Starting QB (Pitt, DEN) and others with less than stellar QB play.  Granted the Bills rested their starters in Week 17 and fell to the Jets, but for the regular season they scored just 314 points (19.6 ppg) while yielding only 259 (16.2 ppg).  They were one of only 5 teams in the AFC who generated a positive scoring differential at +55.  This was primarily based on our #2 ranked scoring defense (16.2 ppg) as the Bills offense (19.6 ppg) was 23rd in the league, and the worst scoring offense of all 12 teams in the playoffs.

 

I wanted to see what the other 5 AFC Teams that made the playoffs averaged by excluding the Bills numbers.  There were some outliers with BAL averaging 33.2 ppg on offense and NE yielding only 14.2 ppg on defense.  The only playoff team with a negative point differential was HOU at -7.  This was because HOU gave up 385 points or 24.1 ppg on defense.  The Bills, on the other hand, were hampered by offensive production.

 

2019 AFC Playoff teams - Excluding the Bills

The other 5 AFC playoffs teams (KC, BAL, NE, TEN, HOU) averaged 27.3 ppg scored in 2019. 

Those same 5 teams averaged 19.1 ppg yielded in 2019.  

Their average scoring differential was 8.2 ppg.  BAL at 15.6 ppg and NE at 12.1 ppg really skewed these results.

 

Given the anomalies that were the BAL offense and NE defense last year, I ran the NFC playoff team numbers too.

2019 NFC Playoff Teams

The 6 NFC playoff teams (SF, SEA, MIN, GB, PHL, NO) averaged 26 ppg scored in 2019

Those same 6 teams averaged 21 ppg yielded in 2019.

 

So for comparison, looking at the 2019 Playoff teams only: 

	2019	2019	2019
	OFF PPG	DEF PPG	PPG Diff
Bills	19.6	16.2	3.4
AFC	27.3	19.1	8.2
NFC	26	21	5

 

Some items of note as it relates to OBD.  McDermott was on record in preseason and early 2019 season about the need to score 21 ppg to win.  Based on the numbers above, that goal is not high enough.  I wrote a detailed analysis last year stating that the Bills would need to score 25 ppg  to assure they make the playoffs in 2019.  I think that is a realistic target  for OBD again especially since the acquisition of Diggs and the moves yet to come.  So the Bills need to score 25 ppg or 400 points in 2020. 

 

If Josh takes his passing TDs from 1.33 per game to 2 per game then this yields an additional 74 points scored.  In 2019 The Bills scored only 13 times on the ground with Josh Allen scoring 9 of those.   The RBs scored only 4 TDs on the ground.  OBD will have to look to increase this RB output to .75 TDs per game.  That would yield 8 more rushing TDs on the year or 56 more points.  If Josh gets 8 TDs (.5 TD per game) and the RBs get 12 (.75 TDs per game) then the Bills will have scored 49 more points on the ground next year.  Taking 49 points on the ground and 74 via the air yields 113 total points increase in 2020 or approximately 7 ppg.  This would get the Bills to 23.2 ppg.  A small increase in FGs or some defensive scores (Bills had none in 2019) should account for the additional 1.8 points needed to get to 25 ppg scored.  

 

Defensively, I doubt the 2020 Bills can duplicate their Points against achievement again in 2020.  The fact they draw KC, SF, SEA, TEN and PIT means some higher octane offenses with better QBs in 2020 and some shootouts.  A slight regression to the mean would yield an 18 ppg or 288 Points yielded in 2020. 

 

It would be nice to score 400 and yield 288 as the result is a scoring differential per game of 7 points.  We all  might be able to enjoy the games more with a larger lead.  Let's hope the draft and remaining FA acquisitions help the offense make the necessary improvements on 3rd down, in the red zone and in the passing game to get these results.  Go Bills!

 

 

 

  

Edited March 25, 2020 by freddyjj

[chris heff]

I’m shocked by that RB TD number, do you think that’s a function of Allen being their best short yardage option? And Gore’s ineffectiveness? Singletary was a TD machine in college, seems to me he was not on field in goal line situations.

[MJS]

10 minutes ago, chris heff said:

I’m shocked by that RB TD number, do you think that’s a function of Allen being their best short yardage option? And Gore’s ineffectiveness? Singletary was a TD machine in college, seems to me he was not on field in goal line situations.

Gore was pretty much useless except for one or two of the early games. Singletary injured his hamstring so that delayed him getting more involved. The RB situation was pretty bad last year until Singletary got more involved later on.

 

I've been rewatching the games from last season and I'm through the first six or seven. Gore is just so bad and he only gets worse as the games go on. It was too bad Singletary had that hamstring because that would have really helped the rushing game to get him more involved, but even when he came back they eased him in slowly over the weeks.

 

Just the fact that we have Singletary as a full time starter now instantly boosts the offense. But we do need to sign a good backup, or draft one.

Edited March 25, 2020 by MJS

[msw2112]

Allen's passing TD numbers need to go up, as do the RB TD numbers.  I wouldn't be upset if Allen's rushing TD numbers went DOWN.  The hope is that others pick up the slack (and more) and Allen is less exposed to injury and opportunity to fumble.

[freddyjj]

17 minutes ago, chris heff said:

I’m shocked by that RB TD number, do you think that’s a function of Allen being their best short yardage option? And Gore’s ineffectiveness? Singletary was a TD machine in college, seems to me he was not on field in goal line situations.

Yeah Gore was ineffective running from our Jumbo sets.  Our Red Zone TD % actually dropped from 60% in 2018 to 56% last year.  Our inability to score via the run (other than Josh) was a big part of that.  

 

OBD has to be looking at a RB2 via FA or the draft who is good in short yardage, Goal line and 4 Minute offense.  The Bills should be sitting on more leads in 2020 late in games and it would be nice to be able to run even when the other team knows it's coming.

[hondo in seattle]

Gore was a shell of his former self.  But our OL didn't consistently create holes, or push defenders back in short yardage situations.  

 

Both our passing game and running game need to improve.  Getting better weapons will help.  Diggs instantly makes the receiving corps more lethal.  A bruising between-the-tackles RB to complement Singletary would be great.  My biggest hope, though, is that JA and the OL get better.  

[chris heff]

37 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

Gore was a shell of his former self.  But our OL didn't consistently create holes, or push defenders back in short yardage situations.  

 

Both our passing game and running game need to improve.  Getting better weapons will help.  Diggs instantly makes the receiving corps more lethal.  A bruising between-the-tackles RB to complement Singletary would be great.  My biggest hope, though, is that JA and the OL get better.  

How about A.J. Dillon?

[DuckyBoys]

would help if the defense and special teams came up with some  points  Defense didnt have one td last year 

[BillsFan17]

Get a good complimentary back, teach Knox how to catch, and if the line stays healthy (knock on wood) there is absolutely no reason we wont improve in every category.

 

I know we are all stoked about Diggs, but outside of his production, what it's going to open up for guys like Smoke and Beasley... just... cant effin wait 

[ny33]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

Gore was pretty much useless except for one or two of the early games. Singletary injured his hamstring so that delayed him getting more involved. The RB situation was pretty bad last year until Singletary got more involved later on.

 

I've been rewatching the games from last season and I'm through the first six or seven. Gore is just so bad and he only gets worse as the games go on. It was too bad Singletary had that hamstring because that would have really helped the rushing game to get him more involved, but even when he came back they eased him in slowly over the weeks.

 

Just the fact that we have Singletary as a full time starter now instantly boosts the offense. But we do need to sign a good backup, or draft one.

Would add that a good RB add in the 2nd or 3rd wouldn’t just be a backup, but part of the RB rotation (and maybe the team wants someone with some power like Akers who is better suited on short yardage plays/3rd downs). I’d much rather have 2-3 good backs than be like the Jets with a single workhorse, and even Elliott has a a decent RB to spell him in Pollard. 

[Locomark]

3 hours ago, chris heff said:

I’m shocked by that RB TD number, do you think that’s a function of Allen being their best short yardage option? And Gore’s ineffectiveness? Singletary was a TD machine in college, seems to me he was not on field in goal line situations.

Some of it was we also used jet sweep in red zone which is officially a pass although I think we only scored a few that way. BD really needs to work in his inside the 5 run calls. 

Edited March 25, 2020 by Locomark

[freddyjj]

21 hours ago, Locomark said:

Some of it was we also used jet sweep in red zone which is officially a pass although I think we only scored a few that way. BD really needs to work in his inside the 5 run calls. 

I agree.  I believe that the Bills only scored once on the jet sweep last year in 2nd week vs Giants.  McKenzie went around the end for a 14 yd TD.  The Bills really had trouble scoring on the ground in red zone outside of the 9 rushing TDs they got from Josh Allen.

 

The RB2 position will have to pick up the slack here and between that player and Singletary we have to hope for improvement from our running game in the red zone.