There should be a national dialogue in getting back to work

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

nevermind

Edited May 11, 2020 by Buffalo Bills Fan

[GG]

Funny how the scaredycats who warn that positive cases are still rising in some places, never cite the CO and GA statistics, who opened 2 weeks ago.  

 

Shouldn't they be spiking like mad by now?

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, GG said:

Funny how the scaredycats who warn that positive cases are still rising in some places, never cite the CO and GA statistics, who opened 2 weeks ago.  

 

Shouldn't they be spiking like mad by now?

 

But there are still people saying that GA's spiking.  When they are shown the numbers from the GDPH, literally, they shrug.

 

Apparently, following data is very passe.  But, if NPR has a story, well ...

[GG]

5 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

But there are still people saying that GA's spiking.  When they are shown the numbers from the GDPH, literally, they shrug.

 

Apparently, following data is very passe.  But, if NPR has a story, well ...

Especially if you take a deeper look into where the growth has been outside NYC, and it's still the latency of the related outbreaks in CT, NJ, MA and PA.  

 

Everywhere else it's relatively quiet. 

[Foxx]

good ol' sunshine for that Vitamin D.  

[shoshin]

2 hours ago, GG said:

Funny how the scaredycats who warn that positive cases are still rising in some places, never cite the CO and GA statistics, who opened 2 weeks ago.  

 

Shouldn't they be spiking like mad by now?

No. Exponential case growth wouldn’t work that quickly if it is going to catch. Two weeks would just be 1-2 rounds of expansion. If R0 is above 1.2 or so, you’d give it 4-6 weeks to declare things are going well. 

[GG]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

No. Exponential case growth wouldn’t work that quickly if it is going to catch. Two weeks would just be 1-2 rounds of expansion. If R0 is above 1.2 or so, you’d give it 4-6 weeks to declare things are going well. 

That would be the case in the initial outbreak, not something that's been festering for months.  You wouldn't see a continual decline over the past 2 weeks.  

[shoshin]

7 hours ago, GG said:

That would be the case in the initial outbreak, not something that's been festering for months.  You wouldn't see a continual decline over the past 2 weeks.  

 

Yes you might. The newly infected may only just be hitting the case count. I'm noting that only time will tell how well we are doing. So far Georgia looks like it's on a slight downtrend over the last month, which is good. 

 

 

Germany does a way better job than us on testing and measuring and they have seen their rate of transmission (not necessarily case counts remarkably yet) go up starting this week 3 weeks after opening. They are now on a razor's edge where their R0 is creeping to the danger zone. Use them as the model of reopening. 

 

 

Edited May 12, 2020 by shoshin

[Tiberius]

Coronavirus Live Updates: Fauci to Warn of ‘Needless Suffering and Death’ if States Open Too Soon

The United States’ top infectious disease expert plans to testify at a Senate hearing that moving too quickly to ease restrictions could undermine the country’s quest to return to normalcy.

RIGHT NOW

The New York Times will be providing live coverage of the Senate hearing at 10 a.m. Eastern.

“The major message that I wish to convey to the Senate HLP committee tomorrow is the danger of trying to open the country prematurely,” he wrote. “If we skip over the checkpoints in the guidelines to ‘Open America Again,’ then we risk the danger of multiple outbreaks throughout the country. This will not only result in needless suffering and death, but would actually set us back on our quest to return to normal.”

 

It is a message starkly at odds with the “things are looking up” argument that President Trump has been trying to put out: that states are ready to reopen and the pandemic is under control.

[shoshin]

1 minute ago, Tiberius said:

Coronavirus Live Updates: Fauci to Warn of ‘Needless Suffering and Death’ if States Open Too Soon

The United States’ top infectious disease expert plans to testify at a Senate hearing that moving too quickly to ease restrictions could undermine the country’s quest to return to normalcy.

RIGHT NOW

The New York Times will be providing live coverage of the Senate hearing at 10 a.m. Eastern.

 

I'm not sure it's needless. We cannot stay closed. 

 

Most states are ready for some reopening, albiet cautiously and with good distancing guidelines in place. I look at Philly, Boston, Chicago and obviously NYC and see a different situation calling for some stricter rules but most of the US doesn't need to be in lockdown anymore and should try to open up and see what's happening. GA is the test case at one extreme and lots of more rural NE areas are another, non-NE cities are another, and the NE cities are another. It's an experiment for sure. We don't know how it will go.  

[GG]

2 hours ago, shoshin said:

 

Yes you might. The newly infected may only just be hitting the case count. I'm noting that only time will tell how well we are doing. So far Georgia looks like it's on a slight downtrend over the last month, which is good. 

 

 

Germany does a way better job than us on testing and measuring and they have seen their rate of transmission (not necessarily case counts remarkably yet) go up starting this week 3 weeks after opening. They are now on a razor's edge where their R0 is creeping to the danger zone. Use them as the model of reopening. 

 

 

 

Lazy journalism.   Funny how Germany's numbers are trending now, and everyone is focusing on German health authorities sounding the alarm that estimated transmission rate is moving above R1.1.   Of course that was the only thing picked from the German report, which is chockfull of data and has other statistics that contradict the worrisome trend that the virus is on the rebound.   Little things like actual infection rates and hospitalizations, which continue to decline:

 

 

My biggest problem with the R coefficient is that it's an estimate based on dubious data.  How many times have all the models that were based on that mythical R -value needed to be revised, because they were woefully wrong?  I'm not going to impugn the academics' motives, because they're trying their best given the information.  But, we also have to recognize that their shading is always to the negative, because there's no penalty to them for erring on the downside.  If you add their role in advising public policy, there's a true disincentive to be more optimistic in their modeling.

 

That's why you continue to see a more negative slant from academia, despite what the actual numbers say.  And the press eats it up, without truly examining the numbers.

[shoshin]

14 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Lazy journalism.   Funny how Germany's numbers are trending now, and everyone is focusing on German health authorities sounding the alarm that estimated transmission rate is moving above R1.1.   Of course that was the only thing picked from the German report, which is chockfull of data and has other statistics that contradict the worrisome trend that the virus is on the rebound.   Little things like actual infection rates and hospitalizations, which continue to decline:

 

 

My biggest problem with the R coefficient is that it's an estimate based on dubious data.  How many times have all the models that were based on that mythical R -value needed to be revised, because they were woefully wrong?  I'm not going to impugn the academics' motives, because they're trying their best given the information.  But, we also have to recognize that their shading is always to the negative, because there's no penalty to them for erring on the downside.  If you add their role in advising public policy, there's a true disincentive to be more optimistic in their modeling.

 

That's why you continue to see a more negative slant from academia, despite what the actual numbers say.  And the press eats it up, without truly examining the numbers.

 

Doom and gloom sells for sure.

 

But look to Germany for a country doing a lot of testing and a pretty compliant reopening to see what we may see. Like Italy and Spain were good predictors of when we could expect to peak, Germany will be a decent measure of the optimistic end of what we can expect on reopening. 

[Orlando Tim]

37 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Coronavirus Live Updates: Fauci to Warn of ‘Needless Suffering and Death’ if States Open Too Soon

The United States’ top infectious disease expert plans to testify at a Senate hearing that moving too quickly to ease restrictions could undermine the country’s quest to return to normalcy.

RIGHT NOW

The New York Times will be providing live coverage of the Senate hearing at 10 a.m. Eastern.

“The major message that I wish to convey to the Senate HLP committee tomorrow is the danger of trying to open the country prematurely,” he wrote. “If we skip over the checkpoints in the guidelines to ‘Open America Again,’ then we risk the danger of multiple outbreaks throughout the country. This will not only result in needless suffering and death, but would actually set us back on our quest to return to normal.”

It is a message starkly at odds with the “things are looking up” argument that President Trump has been trying to put out: that states are ready to reopen and the pandemic is under control.

Most of the country is ready to reopen. This past weekend I went a brewery and sat at a table without anyone helping me, I wiped it down ala Niles from Frasier, and I ordered my beers for me and my wife without coming within 5 feet of others except when I put my credit card in the machine. There is no reason most of the country outside the 5 largest cities can't open with some intelligent distancing. BTW I live in Orlando which is a top 25 city in America.

[B-Man]

WELL, YES: Quarantine Fatigue Is Real And Shaming People Won’t Help.

#StayHome had its moment. The United States urgently needed to flatten the curve and buy time to scale up health-care capacity, testing, and contact tracing. But quarantine fatigue is real. I’m not talking about the people who are staging militaristic protests against the supposed coronavirus hoax. I’m talking about those who are experiencing the profound burden of extreme physical and social distancing. In addition to the economic hardship it causes, isolation can severely damage psychological well-being, especially for people who were already depressed or anxious before the crisis started. In a recent poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation, nearly half of Americans said that the coronavirus pandemic has harmed their mental health. . . .

 

But the choice between staying home indefinitely and returning to business as usual now is a false one. Risk is not binary. And an all-or-nothing approach to disease prevention can have unintended consequences. Individuals may fixate on unlikely sources of contagion—the package in the mail, the runner or cyclist on the street—while undervaluing precautions, such as cloth masks, that are imperfect but helpful.

 

 

Related:

 

 

 

More Resistance in Michigan: Mayor of Perry Opens up the Town, Defying Gov. Whitmer

 

 

[Tiberius]

58 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

Most of the country is ready to reopen. This past weekend I went a brewery and sat at a table without anyone helping me, I wiped it down ala Niles from Frasier, and I ordered my beers for me and my wife without coming within 5 feet of others except when I put my credit card in the machine. There is no reason most of the country outside the 5 largest cities can't open with some intelligent distancing. BTW I live in Orlando which is a top 25 city in America.

But what type of beer were you drinking?  

[Whatnot78]

27 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

But what type of beer were you drinking?  

 

[Orlando Tim]

36 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

But what type of beer were you drinking?  

Wait is this a topic we can agree on?? We were  sharing- so we had a hefeweizen, an Irish red, a quad, and a scotch ale in what was basically a large flight. 

[Tiberius]

That's interesting about the pool testing for schools and colleges. 

[plenzmd1]

11 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

That's interesting about the pool testing for schools and colleges. 

I may have missed that..what did hear on that? 

[Tiberius]

1 minute ago, plenzmd1 said:

I may have missed that..what did hear on that? 

Sewage! They can check a campus sewage system to see if the virus is present