There should be a national dialogue in getting back to work

[B-Man]

 

“White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow on Thursday said the U.S. economy should be able to reopen ‘on a rolling basis’ over the next month or two.”

 

[Foxx]

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1245787069076602880

 

[B-Man]

 

 

ROGER KIMBALL: The case for reopening the country now.

 

Public health experts are well and good in their place. Their place is not running the country

 

 

FTA:

You might think that the reason we don’t have an answer to these questions is because we don’t really know the insidious strength of the enemy, the new coronavirus that, with the help of the Chinese back in December and January, has made its way around the world, sickening hundreds of thousands, from Prime Minister Boris Johnson on down.

 

I think that is only part of the answer. As becomes clearer by the day, there are two camps responding to this latest Chinese import. On one hand, there are those who have been subjected to what one wit called a 30-day free trial of socialism, replete with mind boggling government spending and hastily constructed regimens of social control. Very few of these guinea pigs will want to renew their subscriptions once the trial period is up

 

Wash your hands. Wear a mask. Close your business. Stay inside. Shun your friends and neighbors. Report them if they disobey.

 

 

These are the mantras of the busybodies and petty tyrant who fill the corridors of power at every level, from the federal government right down to your local police force, mayor’s office, school board, and neighborhood association.

 

As I write, there are some 16 million people out of work. This happened over the course of a few weeks. Who know how many more jobs will be sacrificed on the altar of ‘flattening the curve’?

 

{snip}

 

 

Meanwhile, hospitals across the land, having turned themselves almost overnight into factories bent on dealing almost exclusively with victims of the virus, found their wards empty and their coffers hemorrhaging cash, as nearly all non-emergency procedures were postponed in order to deal with the floods of COVID-19 patients that, in many places, never arrived.

 

Let me pause to acknowledge that COVID-19 is a dangerous virus, especially for the elderly and infirm. One of my best friends — now recovering, I am happy to say — had a nasty bout. But this observation by a former New York Times writer is to the point:

 

‘Nobody says COVID-19 is not real, that it can’t tax hospitals or kill people, esp. if they are over 75 or have co-morbidities. But right now the best CURRENT projection is for 61,000 US deaths. That was the 2017 flu season. Why have we shut the country?’

 

‘Why have we shut the country?’ That question is now being repeated with increasing urgency across America. I should also note that that 61,000 figure is probably too high, since the CDC is now recommending that everyone who dies who can plausibly be thought to have been exposed to the disease be declared a victim of it. Julie Kelly cites a typical case: ‘an 86-year-old female non-ambulatory stroke victim who developed a fever and cough days after being exposed to a sick family member later diagnosed with COVID-19. Even though the decedent wasn’t tested, the coroner nonetheless determined that the woman’s underlying cause of death was COVID-19’.

 

There are signs that President Trump is tiring of his romance with Drs Fauci and Birx. That would be a good thing. Public health experts are well and good in their place. Their place is not running the country.

 

The political philosopher James Burnham once observed that civilizations die more often from suicide, not invasion. He was thinking of the rot of progressive politics, which is the politics of fecklessness and surrender. Our response to the coronavirus has been a version of that spiritual inanition. We must reopen the country. We must start today.

 

.

 

[Niagara Bill]

9 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Thanks. The deep end of the pool is a way better place than the endless blame game and name calling in the other threads. Again, I see this is yet another evolutionary challenge. There’ll be some changes in society for sure but I highly doubt they’ll override mankind’s natural desire to socialize.  The technology examples you cite gave people more time for leisure. But what happens when we’re instructed not to ‘leisure’? 

Some significant change in North America will be

1 what is more important, your neighbors life or money. Do business that create potential for virus transmission trumps lives as only 2% actually die.

2 health care models.... do certain poorer areas of the country have hire death rates because of poor medical access. That could be a huge voting block.

3. How does this pandemic affect the illegal drug trade and use.?

[RochesterRob]

26 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

I don't disagree with much of what you say.  Technologically we could close ALL schools  tomorrow and replace them with distance learning.  Absolutely could happen.

 

But the question to ask is SHOULD it happen.

 

First off, it will be more expensive than you are think IMHO.  Presently the delivery is being done on a wing and prayer with Zoom or recorded sessions.  My neighbor who is a teacher was telling me about this from 6' away.  If we were to go to this full time, there would be massive technology infrastructure that would need to be bought and then have maintenance fees and upgrades forever.  Technology often makes money savings claims but they also introduce huge costs.

 

But the real question I have is, what is the effect on learning for going this route?  Do some kids learn worse online than for in person classes?  What about retention of what's learned?  What about the ability to deliver complex topics like chemistry online effectively?  No more chemistry labs. 

 

As a computer person I have gone to a lot of classes.  I have also done a lot of online classes.  As far as learning goes, the in person classes offer much better learning and retention and it's not even close.

 

When this online stuff first started up (1999) I asked a vendor if he had studies on learning  and retention between online and in person classes.  They didn't.  I wonder if anyone does now?

 

Not saying it can't happen but seriously question if it should.

  I am not advising complete closure.  I am pointing out that in many districts a number of bad decisions were made based on ego and now the chickens have come home to roost economically.  Ideally, the kids should be in the school building so teachers can interact with them in person.  But do we currently need to have 1 teacher for every 24-30 kids as has been the practice for many decades now?  It was not a problem in 1965, 1975, 1985, etc. when salaries were much lower than what they are today.  Today the poorer districts are fighting for quality teachers that they can't afford to distribute 1 per 30 students.  

[SoCal Deek]

3 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  I am not advising complete closure.  I am pointing out that in many districts a number of bad decisions were made based on ego and now the chickens have come home to roost economically.  Ideally, the kids should be in the school building so teachers can interact with them in person.  But do we currently need to have 1 teacher for every 24-30 kids as has been the practice for many decades now?  It was not a problem in 1965, 1975, 1985, etc. when salaries were much lower than what they are today.  Today the poorer districts are fighting for quality teachers that they can't afford to distribute 1 per 30 students.  

OK now I’ve lost you guys. First Rochester Rob tells us our school building infrastructure never needs to be refurbished or replaced...and now we’re seriously having a discussion about whether we need K12 schools at all?  Can someone tell me what you’re planning to do with all of the EIGHT YEAR OLD children? Are they staying home with a bowl of kibble?

[reddogblitz]

3 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

OK now I’ve lost you guys. First Rochester Rob tells us our school building infrastructure never needs to be refurbished or replaced...and now we’re seriously having a discussion about whether we need K12 schools at all?  Can someone tell me what you’re planning to do with all of the EIGHT YEAR OLD children? Are they staying home with a bowl of kibble?

 

This was the part I left out.  Now kids can learn at home because the parents are at home too working from home or not working at all.   When everyone goes back to work, are the kids gonna stay home by themselves and dutifully log on and study all day by themselves?

[RochesterRob]

33 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

OK now I’ve lost you guys. First Rochester Rob tells us our school building infrastructure never needs to be refurbished or replaced...and now we’re seriously having a discussion about whether we need K12 schools at all?  Can someone tell me what you’re planning to do with all of the EIGHT YEAR OLD children? Are they staying home with a bowl of kibble?

  Hard to discuss this when it seems to me you are far removed from what is going on in most districts in WNY.  I never ever said buildings could not undergo repair for one.  I don't see the point of a small district taking out a 10M bond on a new building that mostly will cater to a small part of the student body such as athletes in a lot of cases.  Often a project of a legacy minded superintendent.   Also, if you actually read my response my position I said that ideally kids should be in the buildings.  The only problem with that is a number of districts were facing steep tax increases to do business as usual which the taxpayers can not afford.  With the fallout from Coronavirus I don't see how these same districts can do the same old thing going forward.  Utilities are a real cost.  Salaries are a real cost.  School buses are a real cost.  Repairs are a real cost.  The local utility will not bill for less.  The school bus manufacturer will not bill for less.  The local company that sells supplies used in the repair and upkeep of buildings will not bill for less.  So where does that leave us?  The districts have a choice as to how to allocate payroll.  The districts have a choice as to whether to proceed on capital projects.  Heck, the buildings I went through as a kid a few decades ago are still housing classrooms as of the shutdown a few weeks ago.  Don't know about out of state districts but most NYS districts had the foresight to use durable materials such as brick and mortar with steel sub framing to insure decades of safe service.  

Edited April 9, 2020 by RochesterRob

[LSHMEAB]

14 hours ago, Foxx said:

well, now you're getting into the deep end of the pool.

 

it doesn't have to be a bad thing. it can be all about the continued evolution of mankind. look at what happened with the industrial revolution, it freed man to not work as hard, to pursue other more worthwhile endeavours. the same is happening with the transition to the Information Age, though there are surely growing pains, we are freeing man up more than ever. the coming age of Technocracy is perhaps the most scarey and one that will have the most prolonged growing pains but if implemented in the right ways, will be the most rewarding for mankind. my problem with the coming technocracy is that the elite are going to use it to further cement their stranglehold on the plebs (you and i). it doesn't have to be that way though, i'm not sure how we prevent it.

 

choke me in the shallow waters...

I just don't think a solution exists without (dreaded) government intervention. Not this time.

[B-Man]

it’s all basically up to governors:

The White House cannot unilaterally reopen the country. Though the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has issued federal guidance advising people to avoid social gatherings, work from home and use pickup and delivery options for food, it is state officials who have put the force of law behind those suggestions.

 

The CDC guidance is set to expire April 30, but the states are free to choose their own paths. Already, the state directives have varied in timing and in severity, and that is certain to continue as they are rolled back. . . .

 

Among those pushing to reopen the economy, according to senior administration officials, is Marc Short, the vice president’s chief of staff and a top adviser to Trump. Short has argued there will be fewer deaths than the models show and that the country has already overreacted, according to people with knowledge of his comments.

 

Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top expert on infectious diseases, said Thursday that some places might reopen sooner than others, and that hard-hit New York, for example, shouldn’t loosen its restrictions until there was a “very steep decline” in infections.

 

The President can mostly just recommend, and offer help. Governors are in the driver’s seat here.

 

 

.

[Boatdrinks]

2 minutes ago, B-Man said:

it’s all basically up to governors:

The White House cannot unilaterally reopen the country. Though the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has issued federal guidance advising people to avoid social gatherings, work from home and use pickup and delivery options for food, it is state officials who have put the force of law behind those suggestions.

 

The CDC guidance is set to expire April 30, but the states are free to choose their own paths. Already, the state directives have varied in timing and in severity, and that is certain to continue as they are rolled back. . . .

 

Among those pushing to reopen the economy, according to senior administration officials, is Marc Short, the vice president’s chief of staff and a top adviser to Trump. Short has argued there will be fewer deaths than the models show and that the country has already overreacted, according to people with knowledge of his comments.

 

Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top expert on infectious diseases, said Thursday that some places might reopen sooner than others, and that hard-hit New York, for example, shouldn’t loosen its restrictions until there was a “very steep decline” in infections.

 

The President can mostly just recommend, and offer help. Governors are in the driver’s seat here.

 

 

.

This is how it should be, but it’s also gravely concerning under the rule of Cuomo. I’m expecting he will treat NYS as one entity ( ie NYC), when the data clearly shows NYC is unique in the state and in America as a whole. He’s prepared to destroy NY economically and beg the Federal government to bail him out. He can use the predictable backlash as more fuel against Trump. NYC should be effectively cordoned off from all other areas , but he will force the rest of the state to suffer as well. 

[RochesterRob]

5 minutes ago, B-Man said:

it’s all basically up to governors:

The White House cannot unilaterally reopen the country. Though the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has issued federal guidance advising people to avoid social gatherings, work from home and use pickup and delivery options for food, it is state officials who have put the force of law behind those suggestions.

 

The CDC guidance is set to expire April 30, but the states are free to choose their own paths. Already, the state directives have varied in timing and in severity, and that is certain to continue as they are rolled back. . . .

 

Among those pushing to reopen the economy, according to senior administration officials, is Marc Short, the vice president’s chief of staff and a top adviser to Trump. Short has argued there will be fewer deaths than the models show and that the country has already overreacted, according to people with knowledge of his comments.

 

Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top expert on infectious diseases, said Thursday that some places might reopen sooner than others, and that hard-hit New York, for example, shouldn’t loosen its restrictions until there was a “very steep decline” in infections.

 

The President can mostly just recommend, and offer help. Governors are in the driver’s seat here.

 

 

.

  Sifting through the various news segments I get the impression Cuomo is being advised to not restart NYS until June.  Whether he goes with those recommendations only the governor knows.

[B-Man]

 

 

Heritage Coronavirus Commission Releases Five-Step Plan to Reopen America.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

[B-Man]

 

[RochesterRob]

1 minute ago, B-Man said:

 

  Unfortunately, many such stories or similar stories will get told in the next year.  I don't know that it is possible for any one person to comprehend just how complex the US economy is as a whole or see all the individual pieces.

[RochesterRob]

5 hours ago, RochesterRob said:

  Sifting through the various news segments I get the impression Cuomo is being advised to not restart NYS until June.  Whether he goes with those recommendations only the governor knows.

  Cuomo showing great concern of second wave per interview shown on local news.

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, RochesterRob said:

  Cuomo showing great concern of second wave per interview shown on local news.

Hey Andrew....just keep it closed forever ....yes, that’s the certainly the safest way to go. Done! 

[Uncle Joe]

5 hours ago, B-Man said:

 

Wuhans Gruber?

[Kevbeau]

10 hours ago, Uncle Joe said:

Wuhans Gruber?

[mannc]

On 4/9/2020 at 6:09 AM, Foxx said:

well, now you're getting into the deep end of the pool.

 

it doesn't have to be a bad thing. it can be all about the continued evolution of mankind. look at what happened with the industrial revolution, it freed man to not work as hard, to pursue other more worthwhile endeavours. the same is happening with the transition to the Information Age, though there are surely growing pains, we are freeing man up more than ever. the coming age of Technocracy is perhaps the most scarey and one that will have the most prolonged growing pains but if implemented in the right ways, will be the most rewarding for mankind. my problem with the coming technocracy is that the elite are going to use it to further cement their stranglehold on the plebs (you and i). it doesn't have to be that way though, i'm not sure how we prevent it.

 

choke me in the shallow waters...

I think it is a bad thing.  It’s one more step down the road of humans isolating themselves from other humans, which is a profoundly alienating experience.  We are genetically hard-wired to live in close physical proximity to and mutually rely upon a group of other humans.  As our society evolves more toward individuals being able to learn, work and play without close contact with others, we move farther away from that hard-wired core.  The result is widespread alienation and unhappiness, with huge consequences in terms of things like mental health, PTSD, and suicide.  This latest crisis seems likely to exacerbate those trends, and I would argue that it’s not a good thing.   

Edited April 11, 2020 by mannc