BarleyNY Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 2 hours ago, Just Joshin' said: You are correct. The big rate for a first round pick is ~ 50%. A first round WR is even worse. Now factor in that a WR typically takes a few seasons to shine. Trading for an established WR is a great move and the team will be better with the sure thing vs the draft lottery. Diggs > pick 22. The other article I read, but haven’t found again broke down the first round further. Later first round picks were less likely to pan out than earlier picks (as you’d expect). overall hit rates in both articles showed about a 50% success rate. However when they further broke down how successful it found that it was 20% high quality/elite, 30% good/very good and 50% poor. That alone makes trading for Diggs a no brainer. Then take everything else into account - time to develop is a big one (as you mention) and it just becomes more so. Even in a great draft for WRs being locked into that singular position hurts our odds. Having 31 other teams know we had to go WR at 22 would’ve necessitated a draft day move up. Teams behind us who wanted our likely target(s) would’ve moved ahead of us for their preferred player(s). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maryland-bills-fan Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 On 3/23/2020 at 12:52 PM, PIZ said: In order for Josh Allen to develop into a true franchise QB, he needs sure bets at WR. What would it do to his development if the Bills would have taken a rookie WR at 22 and he didn't play at a top level? What are the chances that a rookie WR plays at a top level. We are getting a WR that is proven and that is what Josh Allen needs. How many rookie WRs did Mahomes have on his Super Bowl team? Kansas City had Watkins and Hill, and drafted rookie Mecole Hardman (6 tds but only 26 receptions). It was a steep price, but it is going to pay off big time for the Bills and Allen to have John Brown, Cole Beasley, and Stefon Diggs at WR, and probably a 3rd or 4th round WR rookie. If you think about the military,,, often there is a good young 2nd Lt just arrived and he has been trained to know it all, but you can not train actual experience. Team him up with a seasoned old sarge and they will both live and be successful. ... ... I think it is better to bring in veteran WR for Allen, rather than college hot-shots who still have to learn the pro game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibum Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 I don't think they overpaid for the caliber of player he is. My only concern is that he seems like he could be a prima donna, but so did Shady, and he turned out to be an awesome teammate who embraced Bills fans to the fullest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCbillsfan Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 On 3/23/2020 at 1:12 PM, Augie said: Opening the door for Diggs apparently closed the door on Brady. I’m happy to throw in an extra 4th for that! His talent, age and contract make the value just fine. He’ll want a new deal before this one is up, but he’ll be “cheap” for a while. I like the odds of Beane recouping the value of that 4th round pick with some more of his wizardry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DuckyBoys Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 The big draw of the draw picks is lucking into talent on a cost effective contract. Bills had cap space and Diggs contract is a bargain based on past production. Based on their poor history of drafting the wr position it might just have been the safest move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blacklabel Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 (edited) The talking heads obviously always debate which team got the better end of a trade deal and I've seen plenty of people saying Minnesota schooled Beane and blah blah blah. To me, the Bills have the upper hand in terms of this trade right now. They got a proven player who's ready to go right now. Minnesota has a handful of picks and if all of those picks work out well for them then maybe they got the better end of the deal. But there's no definitive way to tell until about 2-3 years from now when we can weigh what Diggs has done (and the obvious 7th round gem/steal Beane shall pick) against what Minnesota's picks have done. But right now, Bills win the deal despite what they gave up. Edited March 26, 2020 by blacklabel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thenorthremembers Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 They got him for what amounts to the number 19 overall pick in the draft. People saying we gave up too much are prone to hyperbole and hot takes and need to take a pill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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